MAPS experiences with long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies by Harald Winkler CCXG GF September 2016 Breakout 3

1. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS)
MAPS experiences with long-term low
greenhouse gas emission development strategies
Prof Harald Winkler
Director, Energy Research Centre, University of Cape
Town
Presentation at Climate Change Expert Group (CCXG)
13-14 September 2016, Paris

2. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
LTMS and MAPS: Robust evidence base and
facilitated stakeholder process
• jjk• Long Term Mitigation
Scenarios 2006 to 2008
– South Africa
–
• $,5m
• MAPS LAC
Programme
– Brazil, Chile,
Colombia and Peru
– 2010 to Paris 2015
– Donors were CIFF,
SDC, CDKN, Danes,
USAID, others
• $22m

3. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
SBT1 SBT3 SBT4 SBT5 SBT6SBT2Mandate Plan or
Scenario
Map
research
capacity
Research
base year
data
Base case
and RBS
Model
actions
Research
scaled up
effort
Packages
of actions,
CGE model
Process steps towards building scenarios

4. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
LTMS – political lines drawn by SA Cabinet
• Cabinet mandated the LTMS – this lead to the Peak
Plateau and Decline Trajectory (policy)

5. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Long-term perspective to inform
short-term decisions
Start year 2025/30 2050
Constraints
Flexibility
GHG
t

6. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
1) Long term context - SA’s emissions will “peak,
plateau and decline” acc to national policy, within a
specified range

7. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
2) Medium term goal - SA’s emissions will be
within a specific range in 2025 and 2030

8. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
3) Flexibility - in the longer term, SA’s “PPD”
trajectory will be periodically reviewed

9. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Model development  climate?
9
Mitigation
Development
1
2
If that is the relationship, why do we
mostly model scenarios of climate
stabilisation, mostly globally?

10. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
High effort scenario
MAPS Chile results –
development and mitigation

11. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
.
How can methodologies be devleped?
MAPS Academy
A network of learning institutions

12. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Backcasting and forecasting ?
Forecasting: ΔABC
Feasible pathways starting
from A
Back-casting: ΔDEF
Range of pathways ending
in from D
Solution space:
ADGH
Meets target conditions,
and feasible
Source: Ashina et al
(2012)

13. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

14. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
What might LGDS be good for?
1. Long-term perspective on short-term
investment decisions
2. Link climate and development, by framing
LGDS as development strategies
3. Tool in increasing ambition
4. Textured understanding of global
emissions pathways, as composite
picture, close to national development

15. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Discussion Questions
1. How can methodologies for long-term low
greenhouse gas emission development
strategies deliver robust outputs and
compelling narratives, and create a positive
vision for each country?
2. How might long-term strategies inform other
more near-term plans, including those
focused on climate (e.g. NDCs) and
development (e.g. energy, environment or
other national development plans)?

16. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Thank you
Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.za
www.mapsprogramme.org
www.erc.uct.ac.za

17. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Art 4.19
All Parties should strive to formulate and
communicate long-term low greenhouse gas
emission development strategies, mindful of
Article 2 taking into account their common
but differentiated responsibilities and
respective capabilities, in the light of
different national circumstances.

18. Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios
Decision 1/CP.21, para 35
Invites Parties to communicate, by 2020, to
the secretariat mid-century, long-term low
greenhouse gas emission development
strategies in accordance with Article 4,
paragraph 19, of the Agreement, and
requests the secretariat to publish on the
UNFCCC website Parties’ low greenhouse
gas emission development strategies as
communicated