In this audio slideshow, Adam Roberts, Research Analyst at the Nuffield Trust, examines the findings of an Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) report, funded by the Nuffield Trust. The report looks at the financial outlook for the NHS when the current unprecedented period of broadly flat NHS funding in real terms ends in 2014-15. It also considers the future of social care spending given that demographic pressures are increasing demand for care services and the recent Commission on Funding of Care and Support (the Dilnot Commission) called for reform of the system for funding social care in England that would increase the cost to the taxpayer. The full findings of this work have been published in the report: 'NHS and social care funding: the outlook to 2021/22' (July 2012), written by Rowena Crawford and Carl Emmerson of the IFS for the Nuffield Trust.

1. Future funding scenarios for the
NHS and social care in England
Adam Roberts
Research Analyst
www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk/nhs-financial-challenge
4 July 2012 © Nuffield Trust

2. Background
• This presentation:
• Previous trends in health care spending
• Scenarios for health care funding
• Scenarios for social care funding
• Combined affect on other areas of public spending
• Also covered in the report:
• Assumptions
• International comparisons
© Nuffield Trust

3. History of UK NHS spending
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4. Three NHS funding scenarios (real terms)
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5. Three NHS funding scenarios (% of national income)
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6. Two social care funding scenarios (real-terms)
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7. Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending
given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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8. Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending
given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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9. Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending
given health and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
© Nuffield Trust

10. Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending
given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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11. Trade-off between NHS and other public service spending
given public and social care spending, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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12. Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare cuts
given various NHS/social care funding scenarios, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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13. Trade-off between non-NHS spending and tax increases/welfare
cuts given NHS funding levels, 2015/16 to 2021/22
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14. Conclusions
• From 2010/11 to 2014/15 the NHS faces its tightest budget of last 50
years
• Beyond then, even maintaining share of national income will be tough
• Period of austerity likely to extend well into the next decade
• Only a long-term freeze in other public service budgets/large tax
increases would allow NHS funding to grow at historic levels
• Pressures on health and social care likely to rise (see future reports)
• Without unprecedented productivity gains, there is likely to be a rapid
growth in the gap between the demand for care and the ability to
provide high-quality services
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15. www.nuffieldtrust.org.uk
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4 July 2012 © Nuffield Trust
© Nuffield Trust