1. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
IN MONMOUTHSHIRE:
Service Climate Change Risk
Assessments

2. Agenda for the morning
• Welcome and introduction – Ben Winstanley
• Climate Change Risk Assessments presentation – Hazel Clatworthy
• Demonstration of Wiki page resources – Nick Keyse
• Work on Risk Assessments in service teams
• Coffee Break
• Workshop with mixed groups – identify emerging priorities and cross
cutting areas of work
• Brief feedback from groups
• Summary of key issues from morning and next steps

3. Background to Climate Adaptation work in
Monmouthshire – key points
• It’s about the potential impact of climate change on Monmouthshire’s communities,
services, economy, landscape and infrastructure.
It’s not about carbon reduction.
• It’s about how we adapt and become resilient to long term changes of climate.
It’s not about Emergency Planning.
• Key driver – Climate Change Act 2008 – WG Reporting Requirements on risk and
adaptation. Report by March 2013.
• Key driver - Sustainable Development Bill 2013 (White Paper out now)– emphasis on
long termism and preventative approach.
• Tools and learning are based on WLGA work with other Welsh authorities and Local
Service Boards over the last few years.
• Today designed to orientate you on climate adaptation challenge and start to use the
risk assessment tool.

4. LONG TERM CLIMATE ‘FORECAST’
FOR WALES
• hotter summers, milder winters
• longer growing season
• more rain in winter, less in summer
• warmer seas & sea level rise of 1 metre (2100)
• INCREASE IN EXTREME YEARS
• MORE DROUGHTS, HEATWAVES, FLOODING
• FREQUENT AND VIOLENT STORMS/GALES
• similar to Brittany or Galicia in Spain?
• UKCP09 – provides probabilistic data

5. LONG TERM CLIMATE ‘FORECAST’
FOR WALES
For Monmouthshire by 2050
• Increase in winter rainfall by 14%.
• Decrease in summer by 16%.
• Average annual temperatures are projected to
increase by 2.3 degrees
• Summer daily temperatures increase by 3.4
degrees.
• In Winter daily minimum temperatures to
increase by 2.5 degrees.

6. Preparing for a changing climate –
Welsh Government guidance
Part 3, 4 & 5
We are here!
guidance due
February 2013

7. Preparing for a changing climate
• A closer look at what
climate change means
for your organisation.
• Assessing your
organisation’s current
vulnerability to climate
change.
• Undertaking a climate
change risk
assessment.

8. WLGA Changing Climate Changing Places Pilot 2008-11
(Cardiff, Gwynedd, Flintshire, RCT)
Rain Heat
Waterlogged graveyard School closures
School closures Noise Pollution
Slippery pavements Rat/Wasp/Fly populations
Coastal Debris Littering/rotting rubbish
Weed control Soil drying-tree damage
Landslides Melting Road Surfaces
Events cancelled Grass Cutting
Library flooding Funerals (morbidity)
School Transport
Cold High Winds
Day Centre closure School closures
School closures Landfill site closure
Refuse collection Debris on rail/roads - closures
Road closures Fallen trees
Gritting Infrastructure damage
Pitches icy Events – structural damage
School Transport Traffic lights
Insurance Claims
CCTV -security
LEARNING FROM THE PAST 5 YEARS
TO ASSESS RISKS FROM EXTREME
WEATHER EVENTS

9. THE ORGANISATIONAL SYSTEM –
Is Climate Adaptation linked into decision making and planning?
Policy
Capital
Project integration
programme Corporate and
LDP Management
Tools Business
Risk Management Planning
Regeneration
Business
Organisation?
Resilience
Financial Community Strategy Partner?
Planning Local Service Board?
Asset
Management
Emergency
Planning –
Resilience Fora Schools re-
organisation
Social Service
Scrutiny Health Property
commissioning
Function Planning Maintenance

10. The view of the resilience of infrastructure – (particularly the
transport network) to flooding and heatwaves
Monmouthshire’s LSB....
future water supply for public and agricultural use
Tasks for the forest fire risk and impact on the public and woodlands
LSB over time:
economic consequences of increased flooding
to consider: financing costs of impacts – personal built and
agriculture
Evidence community and health consequences of flooding and
Significance extreme weather – direct and indirect
Consequence
direct damage to built infrastructure and insurability
to develop: pressure on built infrastructure of hotter summers
ecosystem’s resilience to disease and invasive species
a more
detailed civil contingency – to events and consequences
narrative for
dispersed pollution from increased flooding
Monmouthshire
scale of the issues involved
lack of coherence - understanding and response
“assumption that its someone else’s responsibility”

11. What now?

12. Overview: Service Climate Adaptation Risk Assessments
Aim: To assess potential business impacts of projected Climate Change on the
strategy and services of Monmouthshire - to meet the requirements of the Climate
Change Act 2008.
Service Management Teams are being asked to complete an assessment of climate
impacts.
This will require two half day workshop sessions with principal officers and senior
managers and a follow up meeting to determine priorities.
1.Past severe weather impacts on the service
2.Built assets and premises
3.Infrastructure
4.Service Demand and Clients/Customers Resources:
5.Procurement and Supply Chains •Documents on Wiki page
6.Service Logistics •Support from T&F Group
7.Strategy
8.Management and Governance
9.Key priorities

13. 1. Past Severe Weather Impacts
Ask staff to consider past severe
weather events (since 2003).
How have these impacted on the
service? RAIN HEAT
• road closure • weed control
• assets damage • rat/wasp/fly population
• event cancelled • noise pollution
Record the implications of these • homes flooded
•business flooded
• grass cutting
• funerals (morbidity)
•grave collapse •watering
events of service delivery and •landfill leachate
•sports pitch revenue
•dry soils
•mowing regimes
finance. •water ingress to power lines
COLD
• rail cancellation
WIND/STORM
• school closure • fallen trees
• refuse collection disrupted • fallen power lines
• sports pitches icy • bridge closure
What would be the implications if • gritting (extra)
• infrastructure damage
• litter and debris
• landfill closure
• road closures (collisions) •assets damage (libraries)
these weather events are, as • school transport •‘street ‘furniture’
•road closure
predicted, likely to become more
frequent.

14. 2. Built Assets and Premises
What are the potential climate impacts on
the services buildings, land and other
physical assets that are managed?
Are there any knowledge gaps (e.g. flood
risk)?
How vulnerable are these assets to
predicted changes? e.g. offices, land
holdings, depots, day centres, schools.....
What are the knowledge gaps – if filled
would help you to assess risks?
What are the potential service and
financial implications?
How might climate resilience be built into
future maintenance and design, asset
retention and disposal?

15. 3. Infrastructure
What infrastructure does the service manage?
How might climate change impact on the
maintenance and management of this?
What infrastructure does the service rely on?
How might this be impacted on by climate
change?
What would be the service and financial
implications if this infrastructure failed? e.g.
transport, IT, energy, waste, water, sewerage.
Are there any knowledge gaps to help you
consider risks?
How might climate resilience be built into
future capital works?

16. 4. Service Demand – Clients & Customers
What might the impacts of a
changing climate be on your clients
or customers?
How might this impact on the
service they demand or need?
What might the service and
financial implications be?
What do you need to know to
assess impacts?
e.g. social care, waste collections,
parks maintenance, increased
outdoor leisure?

17. 5. Procurement & Supply Chains
What might the implications of climate
change be on supply chains and
approaches to procurement?
Might this mean different specifications for
materials or commodities bought in?
Which goods bought in are weather
dependent?
How might this affect capital works for
developments to be fit for purpose in a
changed climate?
e.g. food, building materials, design, road
surfaces, drainage.
Where might there be significant financial
implications of changed approaches?

18. 6. Service Logistics
How might climate change impact on service
logistics? ie. delivering the service to your
customers or clients?
e.g. delivering social care, protecting the
countryside, managing a landfill, delivering the
curriculum, maintaining library services, holding
events, maintaining roads, providing leisure
service, providing schools meals.
How big are the risks to business continuity?
What might the implications be on staff and
customers and the point of service delivery?
How might service provision need to change to
accommodate changes in our climate?

19. 7. Strategy
What are the implications of climate change to your
strategic objectives as a service?
Given the sorts of impacts you have been scoping what
are the major risks to your strategy, where might climate
change in combination with other long term trends (e.g.
demographic change, economic downturn, energy price
rises) present a threat in coming decades.
Are there any strategic opportunities resulting from
climate change to adapt your service and benefit from
the projected changes?
How might your medium to long term strategy need to
change to build in climate resilience?
Which external strategies influence your own - what are
they saying about climate change?

20. 8. Management & Governance
How could decision making and governance within
your Service consider long term climate change
impacts better (in our short term financial and
political cycle).
e.g. investment; funding and finance; risk
management; business and performance planning;
procurement; capital programme; partnerships.
Are there any areas where you consider there to be
a reputational risk from climate change impacts?
Which areas do you feel it might be important to
build a business case for adaptation?
What implications might this have on your
approaches to legal and financial advice and
involvement of portfolio holders, scrutiny and the
Executive?
What support do you need to build a business case
for change?

21. 9. Prioritisation
which of these impacts/risks are
most significant in order for the
Service to meet its strategic and
service objectives.
What are your top 10 key priorities?
which of the long list of impacts lend
themselves to being dealt with at a
corporate, rather than a service
level (both to understand the risk
and to respond) and importantly
how this might be done.
The final report from Services
should include the 10 key Service
priorities and their thoughts on
corporate priorities

22. • All the resources to help you are at:
http://climatechangemonmouthshire.wikispaces.
com/
• Contact any of the following in the Sustainability
Team if you want any help:
– Hazel Clatworthy x 4843
– Ben Winstanley x 4965
– Nick Keyse x 4773
– Alison Howard x 4844