Guest Lecture given by Dr. Victor Yuan at Hanze University of Applied Sciences

1. China’s Economic Data Interpretation
中国经济数据解读
Victor Yuan
02/2014

2. Big Data
4组大数据

3. GDP
568845
GDP (Million Yuan)
600000
Growth rate（%）
16
14
12
400000
10
8
7.7
6
200000
4
2
Source: National Bureau of Statistics Source: National Bureau of Statistics
资料来源：国家统计局
2012
2013
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
0
1978
0

4. Total Sales of Social Retail Goods
社会消费品零售总额
（$ 3.78 trillion, 13.1% growth ） 3.78万亿美元，比上年增长
13.1%
Foreign Exchange Reserves
外汇储备
（$ 3.82 trillion, 15.4% growth ） 3.82万亿美元，比上年增长15.4%
Yearly Total of Import & Export
全年进出口总额
（$ 4.16 trillion, 7.6% growth, Surplus of $ 0.26 trillion ）
4.16万亿美元，比上年增长7.6%，顺差0.26亿美元。
Source: National Bureau of Statistics Source: National Bureau of Statistics
资料来源：国家统计局

5. Medium Data
8 组中数据

6. Car Consumption
汽车消费
Sales has been ranking No. 1 in the world for five consecutive years
销量连续5年居世界第一
China car sales 2012-2013 (units: 10000)
2200
1900
2012
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
资料来源：中国汽车工业协会
2013

7. Real Estate 房地产
 2013年，70个大中城市房价连续18个月呈上涨趋势。
Upward trend for 70 large and medium cities for 18
consecutive months in 2013
 北京、上海、广州等一线城市，房价涨幅高达20%。
20% rose on house prices in Beijing, Shanghai and
Guangzhou.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics
资料来源：国家统计局

8. Gold consumption 黄金消费
2013年首次超越印度，成为世界第一黄金消费大国
No. 1 gold consumer in the world
1176.4 Tons
Data sources: China Gold Association Data sources: China Gold Association
资料来源：中国黄金协会

9. Luxury Consumption 奢侈品消费
2013年，中国贡献了全球奢侈品总支出的29%。
China contributed 29 % of total global luxury spending in 2013
中国人购买奢侈品的年增长率
Annual growth rate on luxury spending
30%
7%
2%
2011
Data sources: Bain & Company Data
来源：贝恩公司
2012
2013

10. Online Shopping 网络购物
2013年中国网络购物交易规模（人民币/元）
China’s online shopping transaction in 2013(￥)
2 Trillion
2万亿
42%
On the Single Day (Nov.11)
Trading Volume = 80 billion
单天交易额800亿
Data sources: China Electronic Commerce Research Center
资料来源：中国电子商务研究中心

11. Mobile Internet 移动互联网
0.5 Billion，19 %
移动网民
智能手机
Mobile users
100 Billion，81.2%
市场规模
Total transaction
Data sources: Ereli Advisory
资料来源：艾瑞咨询
0.58 Billion，60%
Smartphone
9.2 Billion，371%
移动游戏市场
Mobile game
1.2 Trillion，707%
移动支付交易
Mobile Payment

12. Express Delivery 快递
9.19 Billion Units， 61.6% 144.17 Billion RMB，36.3%
业务量
业务收入
Number of Deals
Revenue
2013
Data sources: Chinese State Post Bureau
资料来源：中国国家邮政局

13. Tourism 旅游
2013年，中国公民出境旅游
消费达
9430万人次，增长15%
1176亿美元，增长20%
Outbound tourism:
Passengers:
94,300,000, 15% increase
Consumption: $117.6 billion U.S. dollars,
increase of 20%
Data sources: Chinese Tourism Research Institute
资料来源：中国旅游研究院

14. Small Data
5组小数字

15. Tolerance of consumer goods 消费品承受力
Cannot afford
Barely afford
Afford without problem
63.2
62.9
70.0
62.2
66.3
63.2
60.0
53.6
54.8
59.9
58.5
55.8
47.4
50.6
50.0
36.5
40.0
26.3
30.0
32.7
28.0
24.4
20.0
10.0
4.7
1.9
12.7
16.2
13.0
5.3
11.0
0.0
Travel
Leisure
Tobacco and alcohol
Car
Cosmetic
Housing (buy or rent)
Eating out
Clothing
Education
Medical services
Transportation
Daily basic necessities

16. House-purchase
购房意愿
34.3662
9.2958
北京
Beijing
继续观望
Shanghai
52.2989
13.2184
29.2614
7.1023
广州
Guangzhou
53.6932
9.9432
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
Data sources: Horizon Research Consultancy Group
资料来源：搜狐网与零点研究咨询集团2012年联合进行的“全国两会民生系列调查”。
60%
Wait and see
有购买意愿
Willingness to buy
还是买不起
26.4368
8.0460
上海
49.8592
6.4789
Cannot afford
拒答/说不清
Decline to answer
/No idea

17. Shopping online 网购
77.8%
有
的消费者明确表示有网购经历；其中，淘宝网（67.6%）和京
东商城（35.9%）荣列消费者最信赖购物网站前两位。
77.8% of consumers have confirmed their experiences of online
shopping;
Among them, Taobao (67.6%) and Jingdong mall (35.9%) are the
most trusted consumer shopping websites.
Data sources: Horizon Research Consultancy Group ：network shopping satisfaction survey in 2012 .
资料来源：零点研究咨询集团2012年网络购物满意度主题调查。

18. Travel 旅游
2013年国庆期间，有
21.8%受访者有外出旅游计划
13.3%的人选择出国旅游。
其中，
During the Chinese National Day (Oct 1st) in 2013, 21.8% of
respondents have travel plans.
Among them, 13.3% of people choose to travel abroad.
Data sources: Horizon Research Consultancy Group: national tourism consumption survey in 2013.
资料来源：零点研究咨询集团2013年国庆旅游消费调查。

19. Luxury 奢侈品
70后群体，除了房、车之外他们拥有的最昂贵个人物品是
Jewelry（33.0%）& Watch （24.4%）。
Jewelry (33.0%) and watch (24.4%) are the most expensive personal
items of the after 70’s groups besides house and car.
Expenditure on luxuarious watches by salary groups
50.0
不同收入受访者拥有的最昂贵物品是腕表的比例（除车、房）（%）
39.3
40.0
35.5
32.1
30.0
24.9
26.7
20.0
9.7
10.0
0.0
≤4000
4001-10000
≥10001
Jewelry珠宝
Data sources: Horizon Research Consultancy Group
资料来源：零点研究咨询集团2013年七零后群体研究。
Watch腕表

20. Investment of European companies in China
欧洲企业在中国的投资
2013年，欧盟28国对华投资新设立企业1523家,同比下降10.41%，实际投入外资金额72.14亿美元，同比
增长18.07%。
In 2013, 1523 new EU investment in China to set up enterprises, fell 10.41% year on year.
Actual investment value of $7.214 billion, up 18.07% from a year earlier.
Direct investment from European Companies ( 0.1 billions of USD)
中国实际利用欧洲外商直接投资金额（亿美元）
80
74
70
56
60
50
63
59
57
55
2009
2010
2011
55
2008
59
48
44
43
40
30
20
10
0
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2012
2013

21. Most Popular APPS
(In US & China)

22. THANKS！
Victor YUAN
Horizon Research & Consultancy Group
Mobile Phone : 0086 13801098824
Fax : (86-10) 57098003
Email: victor@horizonrcg.com
Address： East End Plaza, Building 1，No.24, Jiuxianqiao Middle Road,
Chaoyang District, Beijing，China
www.horizon-china.com