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Regional Security in the Eastern Mediterranean
Nicolai Due-Gundersen
Oval Office for Studies and Research
 Introduction
 Island Division and Maritime Disputes
 Gas Discoveries and Ambitions
 Hamas and Hezbollah
 Temporary S...
 1974 North-South
split
 Greek Union Coup
 1983: Turkish
Republic of Northern
Cyprus
 2004: UN
Reunification
Rejection...
 Cyprus Division:
contracts
unrecognised
 Lebanon-Israel: No
accepted delineated
borders
 UN dilemma for
Israel
 2009-10: US-Israel venture discovery in Haifa
Seabed (Leviathan, Taimur). 26 TCF
 2011: Noble Energy discovers Aphrodit...
 (South) Cyprus:
Regional LNG hub,
refinery for Europe,
Egypt
 Israel loses Egypt,
gains Jord
 Israel, Greece, Cyp
alli...
 2006 Hamas
Election; 2009
Israeli Invasion
 Gaza fields (2000)
 Israel restricts
Hamas and PA
profit; British Gas
and ...
 Offshore Gaza
installation targeted
 Distance, isolation=
vulnerability
 Investor
confidence?
 Dictated own Lebanese border
 Israeli projects under threat
 Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem:
“Lebanon will stand...
 US Role: Physical, economic security;
integrate East Med with global markets;
ensure safety of US citizens, workers
 Lo...
 nicolai.due.gundersen@gmail.com
Regional security in the eastern mediterranean
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Lecture given at Arab Institute for Security Studies (ACSIS), Amman, Jordan on the competing gas interests between Lebanon, Israel and Cyprus

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Regional security in the eastern mediterranean

  1. 1. Regional Security in the Eastern Mediterranean Nicolai Due-Gundersen Oval Office for Studies and Research
  2. 2.  Introduction  Island Division and Maritime Disputes  Gas Discoveries and Ambitions  Hamas and Hezbollah  Temporary Solutions/Conclusion
  3. 3.  1974 North-South split  Greek Union Coup  1983: Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus  2004: UN Reunification Rejection and EU assimilation  Grexit considerations and resource coop
  4. 4.  Cyprus Division: contracts unrecognised  Lebanon-Israel: No accepted delineated borders  UN dilemma for Israel
  5. 5.  2009-10: US-Israel venture discovery in Haifa Seabed (Leviathan, Taimur). 26 TCF  2011: Noble Energy discovers Aphrodite Field, Cyp. Approx 7 TcF
  6. 6.  (South) Cyprus: Regional LNG hub, refinery for Europe, Egypt  Israel loses Egypt, gains Jord  Israel, Greece, Cyp alliance  Vs Turkey’s ambitions alone; encouraging Leb- Noble field dispute
  7. 7.  2006 Hamas Election; 2009 Israeli Invasion  Gaza fields (2000)  Israel restricts Hamas and PA profit; British Gas and Egypt ended  Goods and Services only
  8. 8.  Offshore Gaza installation targeted  Distance, isolation= vulnerability  Investor confidence?
  9. 9.  Dictated own Lebanese border  Israeli projects under threat  Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem: “Lebanon will stand guard in order to protect all its rights—no matter the cost.”  Again, Israeli investor stability?
  10. 10.  US Role: Physical, economic security; integrate East Med with global markets; ensure safety of US citizens, workers  Low oil price; high production costs  JV for Cyprus, but Israel (militant activity)?  Cyprus with Turkey as obstacle  US too stretched for supervision?
  11. 11.  nicolai.due.gundersen@gmail.com

Lecture given at Arab Institute for Security Studies (ACSIS), Amman, Jordan on the competing gas interests between Lebanon, Israel and Cyprus

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