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Jan 5th, 2013

LinkedIn Corporation                                                                                                      Naveen Garg
NYSE: LNKD                                                                                   Portfolio Manager (Tech & Telecom), RSIF
                                                                                         CFA Level III Candidate, CFA Institute, VA, USA
Recommendation: Buy                                                           MBA Candidate, Rotman School of Management, UofT
Target Price: $129.64                                                                         naveen.garg13@rotman.utoronto.ca
Last Close Price: $110.30                                                                                 Cell: +1 (416) 671 6440



Stock Price                           110.30    Industry/Sector             Internet/ Tech        TTM P/E                           735.65
52 Week Price Range           61.90 - 125.50    Market Cap.                          12.16B       Current Ratio                          2.61
3-Month Avg. Vol.                  2,012,160    Enterprise Value                     12.04B       Price/Sales                        12.03
                                                Shares Outstanding                 107.45M        Debt/ Equity                              0


Basis of recommendation

 Summary: LinkedIn continues to grow at a high growth rate (2008-
 2011 Revenue CAGR 87.5%) and we expect the revenue CAGR to be
 49% over next 4 years. In our opinion with increased monetization of
 its user base and technology through a focus on sales and marketing,
 LinkedIn will be able to improve its profitability going further.
 Considering its revenue and earnings growth potential we believe




                                                                                                                                            Volume
 that LinkedIn is an undervalued stock.
 Revenue:
  Increasing enterprise customer base is expected to provide steady
   and predictable revenue stream
  New features like New Profile Page, Endorsements and Influencers      Source: Yahoo Finance
   have improved user engagement and page views which in our
   opinion might result in stronger performance by marketing
   segment
  We expect that the high growth rate in the user base in the
   emerging markets could lead to continuing high revenue growth
  Improved economic outlook and recent trend in employment are
   expected to drive up recruitment
 Earnings:
  We expect the net income and EPS growth to be consistently high
   in the coming years as a result of higher profit margins and
   growing revenues                                                      Source: LinkedIn
 Threat:                                                                                               2011      2010    2009    2008
                                                                            Revenue                   522.0     243.0   120.0     79.0
  Poor performance by Monster Worldwide had a significant
                                                                            Gross Profit              440.7     198.3    94.3     60.2
   negative impact on LinkedIn’s share price even though LinkedIn’s
                                                                            Operating Income          25.84     19.58   -3.35    -5.51
   numbers were stellar. In our opinion the two companies are very
                                                                            Net Income                11.91      3.43   -3.97    -4.52
   different and in completely different stages of life cycles
                                                                            EPS                        0.13      0.04   -0.04    -0.05
 Valuation:                                                                 (In millions of USD except EPS)
  We value LinkedIn with a DCF to arrive at a price target of $129.64   Source: LinkedIn
   per share, 17.5% higher than the current market price of $110.30
  Our target price is an equal weighted average (50:50) of DCF value
   using 3% terminal growth rate and 17.1x exit EV/EBITDA multiple
   based DCF value
Valuation Summary

LinkedIn continues to grow at a significantly high rate in all of its three product categories: Talent Solutions, Marketing
Solutions and Premium Subscriptions; however as the base increases, the growth rate is expected to come down in the
coming years. Following chart shows revenue growth forecast and the adjacent table shows some key projected
numbers through 2016.

                                                                                           2011 A        2012         2013         2014           2015         2016
                                                                         Revenue           522,189      964,065     1,640,592    2,533,070      3,518,288    4,820,415
                                                                         EBITDA             68,945      101,227       246,089      455,953        703,658    1,012,287
                                                                         EBIT               25,845       20,496        92,321      240,665        418,967      634,311
                                                                         Net Income         11,912       14,074        71,535      190,210        332,851      505,127
                                                                         FCFF                             1,667       99,212       191,315        401,655       553,458
                                                                                                                                 Source: LinkedIn, Research Forecast

                                                                                                                                   Note: All numbers in thousands of USD
    Source: LinkedIn, Research Forecasts


Current Enterprise Value (EV) of LinkedIn is $12.04B. Forward                   2012E 2013E    2014E   2015E 2016E
EV/EBITDA for the forecasted EBITDA is shown in the adjacent        EV / EBITDA 135.4x  55.7x   30.1x   19.5x 13.5x

table. Considering the current and future high growth rate of the company, forward EV/EBITDA indicates headroom for
the stock price.

Target Price Calculation: Using DCF method, with terminal growth rate of 3%, the calculated per share value is $119.37.
Considering terminal value using exit EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.1x1, the target price per share is $139.91. The suggested
target price of $129.64 is average of target price given by the two methods. At current market price of $110.30/share,
the expected upside is close to 17.5%.

Comparable Company Analysis
LinkedIn has three very distinct revenue streams and a very unique underlying business model based on professional
connections. We believe not one single company is truly comparable to LinkedIn. Below is a snapshot of some
comparable companies in the three revenue streams based on the closest match of the revenue model. In our opinion
taking average or median multiples to value LinkedIn might not be a practical approach as these companies are at
different stages in their growth cycles and have different business models. Overall, LinkedIn is priced at higher multiples
in all three revenue categories. These higher multiples can be attributed to the significantly higher growth rate of
LinkedIn’s user base and revenue as compared to the competitors.


       Comparable companies' valuation ratios
                                                 Last Close               No. of
                                                               Mkt Cap                EV       Sales      EBITDA      P/E       EV / Rev.   EV / EBITDA   P/Sales
                                                (Jan 05, 13)              Shares
       Marketing Solutions
       LinkedIn             NYSE:LNKD             113.15       12,160      107.5     11,481     964         206       735.65      11.91        55.73        12.61
       Facebook             NASDAQ:FB              28.76       62,310     2,170.0    52,756    5,024       2,805      267.34      10.50        18.81        12.42
       Renren               NYSE:RENN              3.76         1,390      370.2     588.02     174         -82        -0.03      3.38           -          8.00
       Google               NASDAQ: GOOG          737.97       242,490     328.6    202,975    41,548      18,536     23.12       4.89         10.95        5.84
       Yahoo!               NASDAQ: YHOO           19.86       23,490     1,180.0    15,157    4,457       1,656       6.02       3.40         9.15         5.26
       Talent Solutions
       LinkedIn             NYSE:LNKD             113.15       12,160     107.5     11,481      964         206       735.65      11.91        55.73        12.61
       51Job                NASDAQ: JOBS           53.02        1,530      28.8     1,150      1,434        510         21        0.80         2.26         1.07
       Monster Worldwide    NYSE:MWW               5.97         699.1     117.1      720        896         126        9.38       0.80         5.71         0.78
       Dice Holdings        NYSE:DHX               9.52         567.7      59.6      560        194         76        15.91       2.89         7.36         2.93
       Premium Subscriptions
       LinkedIn             NYSE:LNKD             113.15       12,160     107.5     11,481      964         206       735.65      11.91        55.73        12.61
       NetFlix              NASDAQ: NFLX           95.98        5,330      55.6     4,933      3,599        142        121        1.37         34.74        1.48
       Monster Worldwide    NYSE:MWW               5.97         699.1     117.1      720        896         126        9.38       0.80         5.71         0.78
       51Job                NASDAQ: JOBS           53.02        1,530      28.8     1,150      1,434        510         21        0.80         2.26         1.07
Note: Market Cap, No. of Shares, EV, Revenue and EBITDA numbers are millions. Sales and EBITDA are analyst consensus forecast for FY 2012.
Source: Thomson Reuters

1
    EV/EBITDA multiple for internet industry as per NYU-Stern publication
Business Overview

LinkedIn is world’s largest online professional network with more than 200 million members across the world. Its
members manage professional identity and stay connected with their network through the website. Additionally,
LinkedIn is also used by the corporations for marketing and recruitment purposes. LinkedIn has adapted to various
platforms such as desktop computers, smartphones and tablet computers. There are three main product lines:

Talent Solutions: Offerings in this product line provide an effective way for enterprises and professional organizations to
efficiently identify and acquire the right talent for their needs.

Marketing Solutions: Through offerings in this product line, LinkedIn enables marketers and advertisers to reach and
engage with the audience and connect them to relevant products and services.

Premium Subscriptions: Premium subscription services target small- and medium-sized enterprises and professional
organizations, individual members and business groups in larger enterprises. Offerings in this product line are designed
to manage their professional identity, grow their business and connect with talent.




                  Source: LinkedIn


All three revenue streams are growing at a high rate with the largest segment – Talent Solutions, growing at the highest
rate. LinkedIn’s revenue share from Talent Solutions is increasing while from Marketing is decreasing. Increasing use of
smartphones and tablets is posing a challenge in growing revenue from marketing stream. Smaller size of screen in these
devices provides less or no space to show advertisements. However, as LinkedIn’s business model is relatively less
dependent on online advertising, in our opinion this is not as big threat for the company as it is for other players like
Facebook and Google.

Geographic Diversification:                                                      Revenue Growth (2012Q3 YoY)
                                                                                           117%                   108%
                                                                      125%
Along with well-established diversified revenue streams, other                                         89%
                                                                      100%      73%
important aspect of LinkedIn’s business model is geographic            75%
diversification of revenue. The user base in countries outside the     50%
United States is growing at a significantly higher pace. Adjacent      25%
figure shows regional revenue growth in Q3-2012.                        0%
                                                                                 USA       Other      EMEA        APAC
                                                                                          Americas
Company Strategy
A large and connected user base is the key to the success for LinkedIn. To increase the user base quickly, company
focuses on multiple things such as registration optimization, seamless integration with other applications and suggested
connections. LinkedIn aspires to be the professional profile of every professional in the world. To achieve this, the
company emphasizes to gain trust of its members and continuously develops features which appeal to a broader base of
professionals. In the recent times, LinkedIn has launched new features using which members can share information with
each other. This initiative is increasing the engagement of its existing user base. We believe this can be useful in
generating more revenue from the marketing segment as this revenue is dependent on page views.
Another key aspect of LinkedIn’s strategy is to adapt to the need of its workforce, customers and partners. It has
released application libraries using which developers can create new applications. The company has opened offices
across the world and increasing number of sales personnel is driving the monetization of investments in technology.
Recognizing changing market landscape, LinkedIn has put conscious efforts to adapt to tablet and mobile platforms as a
significant number of users are accessing LinkedIn through these devices.


Recent Business Highlights:
200 Million Milestone: Last week LinkedIn crossed 200 million users. This reinforces LinkedIn’s consistent high growth
rate of the user base. This is approximately 35% growth during 2012.
Acquisitions: In May, 2012 LinkedIn paid $74.1M to acquire Slideshare, Inc., a privately held provider of a professional
and educational content platform that allows users to upload documents to share ideas, conduct research and connect
with others. Offerings of Slideshare are already integrated with LinkedIn by Q3-2012. In first nine months of 2012,
LinkedIn also acquired 5 other smaller companies for a total of $58.2M.
Growth in international markets: Following are key milestones in terms of the user base achieved by the company in
recent months: 10 million in UK, 2 million in South Africa, 1 million in Denmark, 1 million in Malaysia among others. This
shows that the company is able to consistently broaden its user base globally. We believe this larger user base will pave
a way for future business development in international markets.


Industry Overview

LinkedIn’s industry can be broadly described as online networking; however the company has focused itself in the
professional networking space. The market for online professional networks is new and rapidly evolving. In this new
market LinkedIn is an undisputed industry leader.
Competition
LinkedIn faces significant competition in all aspects of its business. Other companies such as Facebook, Google,
Microsoft and Twitter are developing or could develop competing solutions. Further, some of these companies are
partnering with third parties to offer products and services that could compete with LinkedIn’s offerings.
LinkedIn also faces competition from a number of smaller companies in the international markets, such as Xing in
Germany and Viadeo in France provide online professional networking solutions, as well as Internet companies in the
customer relationship management market, such as salesforce.com (Chatter and Jigsaw).
LinkedIn also competes with established online recruiting companies such as Monster, CareerBuilder and Indeed.com,
talent management companies, such as Taleo (acquired by Oracle), and traditional recruiting firms. Additionally, other
companies, including newcomers to the recruiting industry, may partner with internet companies, including social
networking companies, to provide services that compete with our solutions, either on their own or as third party
applications, such as BranchOut. Additionally, LinkedIn competes with online and offline outlets that generate revenue
from advertisers and marketers.
In this challenging market space LinkedIn has been able to redefine the business model by building a huge user base and
providing them an ability to connect with others in a professional capacity. This value proposition has not been
replicated by others at the large scale as done by LinkedIn. Taking example from Orkut and Facebook we can argue that
a larger user base is critical in engaging people and the survival is also dependent on this. We think that this aspect put
LinkedIn in an advantageous position as compared to others.
Facebook Threat
Facebook does have a much larger use base than LinkedIn; however, a large part of that user base is not a target
segment for the company. LinkedIn primarily targets recruiters, professionals and business owners. In many studies it
has been shown that people generally prefer not to mix their personal and professional networks. This provides further
support to the belief that LinkedIn will be able to maintain its niche market.
Risk Factors

LinkedIn faces multiple business risks. Some of the main risks which could affect company’s financial performance and
hence valuations are as follows:
Competition: Competitors are developing features which overlap with the functionality provided by LinkedIn. For
example, recently Facebook revamped its search feature to allow users to find connections and content more easily. If
competitors find a better way to allow the users to build a professional network or find professional connections, it can
be a significant challenge for the company.
Monetization of platform and products: In last two years LinkedIn has increased its workforce by twofold and has
invested heavily in revamping the platform and developing new features. Going further, the focus will be monetization
of these investments. If company fails to realize the expected benefits, there can be significant downside risk in terms of
valuation. In particular, there are concerns around advertisement revenue as more and more people are using handheld
devices to access LinkedIn.
Information Security: LinkedIn stores and transmits member and customer information some of which is private and
sensitive in nature. Security breach might expose the company to litigation or business disruption. In June, 2012
password information of 6.5 million LinkedIn users was compromised.
Acquisitions: Lately, LinkedIn has been very aggressive in terms of acquisitions. In May 2012, it acquired Slideshare Inc.
for $74.1M, LinkedIn’s largest acquisition so far. Additionally, the company also acquired five other companies for
$58.2M in 2012. 78% of the transaction value of these acquisitions is recognized as goodwill which might result in
impairment charges in the future. These acquisitions will also have dilutive effect on LinkedIn’s existing shareholders as
both cash and equity component is being used for these deals. One of the prime motives behind these acquisitions is to
get access to the talent of these smaller companies; however, if these people leave the company in large numbers, this
motive might not be fulfilled.
Low number of active users: Number of registered members in LinkedIn network is higher than the number of actual
members due to multiple registrations, dead people and fictitious profiles. Additionally, substantial majority of page
views are generated by a minority of members who use LinkedIn regularly.
Corporate Governance: As of Sep 30, 2012, 63% of the voting rights are held by Mr. Reid Hoffman, the founder of the
company. This type of situation might generate corporate governance issues as shareholders, apart from the founder,
are always in minority from voting right perspective.
Foreign Currency Risk: LinkedIn is generating increasing share of revenue from international markets which exposes the
company to foreign currency risk.
Cyclicality of business: LinkedIn considers first quarter of the year a lull period for talent solutions business and third
quarter for Marketing Solutions. Currently, as the growth is significantly high, these lull periods do not show significant
effect in the numbers; however, as the growth rate is expected to go down in the coming years, the cyclicality of the
business might be more pronounced.
Valuation

Revenue Forecast
LinkedIn is witnessing a significant growth rate in all of its revenue segments over past some years. As the base grows,
the growth rate is expected to go down but still it will maintain a high level for next some years. Marketing segment
growth rate is expected to be the slowest as the increased usage of mobile devices provides limited opportunity to show
advertisements.
As the user base builds up in the international markets, the revenue growth is expected to in general remain high.
Additionally, LinkedIn has started focusing on building a strong and international field presence through sales and
marketing personnel. This could further support revenue growth from the enterprise customers in Talent Solutions and
Marketing Solutions revenue streams. In the recently reported numbers LinkedIn also showed increase in user
engagement trends due to recently launched features. Following are the estimated revenue growth forecast:



Sales Forecast                                      ------------------ Actuals ------------------           ------------------------------ Forecast ------------------------------------
                                                                                                                            Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 31
                         Unit     Type                    2009                2010              2011                2012            2013              2014             2015                2016
  Segm ented sales
  Hiring Solutions       [#]      [input]             36,136.0           101,884.0        260,885.0          521,770.0         939,186.0      1,502,697.6       2,103,776.6      2,945,287.3
                         [%]      [calc], [input]                          181.9%            156.1%             100.0%             80.0%            60.0%             40.0%            40.0%
  Marketing Solutions    [#]      [input]             38,278.0            79,309.0        155,848.0          252,473.8         378,710.6        530,194.9         689,253.4        896,029.4
                         [%]      [calc], [input]                          107.2%             96.5%              62.0%             50.0%            40.0%             30.0%            30.0%
  Premium Subscriptions [#]       [input]             45,713.0            61,906.0        105,456.0          189,820.8         322,695.4        500,177.8         725,257.8        979,098.1
                         [%]      [calc], [input]                            35.4%            70.3%              80.0%             70.0%            55.0%             45.0%            35.0%
  TOTAL                  [#]      [calc]             120,127.0           243,099.0        522,189.0          964,064.6       1,640,592.0      2,533,070.3       3,518,287.8      4,820,414.7
                         [%]      [calc]                                   102.4%            114.8%              84.6%             70.2%            54.4%             38.9%            37.0%




Forecasted Income Statement
As the monetization of investments in platform and features is expected to improve in the coming years, we estimate
some further improvements in the profit margins. The future addition to the workforce is expected to be focused on
sales and marketing staff which cost relatively less than the recent large number of newly hired software engineers.

Income Statement                                                     ------- Actuals -------                 ---------------------------- Forecast ------------------------------------
                                                                                                                      Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 31
(in thousands of U.S. dollars)                                           2010            2011              2012              2013          2014         2015                           2016
Total Revenues                                                      243,099.0        522,189.0        964,064.6       1,640,592.0   2,533,070.3 3,518,287.8                     4,820,414.7
Cost of goods sold                                                 (44,826.0)       (81,448.0)      (125,328.4)       (213,277.0)   (303,968.4)   (422,194.5)                   (530,245.6)
Gross profit                                                        198,273.0        440,741.0        838,736.2       1,427,315.0   2,229,101.9 3,096,093.3                     4,290,169.1
SG&A                                                             (159,146.0) (371,796.0)            (737,509.4) (1,181,226.2)           (1,773,149.2) (2,392,435.7) (3,277,882.0)
EBITDA                                                              39,127.0    68,945.0              101,226.8     246,088.8               455,952.7     703,657.6 1,012,287.1

Depreciation & amortization                                        (19,551.0)       (43,100.0)         (80,731.0)     (153,767.4)          (215,287.5)       (284,691.0)        (377,975.9)
EBIT                                                                 19,576.0         25,845.0           20,495.7        92,321.4            240,665.2         418,966.5          634,311.2
Other Non- operating Income (expense)                                 (610.0)        (2,903.0)          (2,903.0)          (2,903.0)          (2,903.0)         (2,903.0)          (2,903.0)
Earnings before taxes                                                18,966.0         22,942.0           17,592.7           89,418.4         237,762.2         416,063.5          631,408.2

Tax expense                                                         (3,581.0)       (11,030.0)          (3,518.5)       (17,883.7)          (47,552.4)         (83,212.7)       (126,281.6)
Net earnings(loss) from continuing item s                            15,385.0         11,912.0           14,074.2         71,534.7           190,209.8          332,850.8         505,126.6

Extraordinary gains / losses                                       (11,956.0)
Minority interest
Net income                                                            3,429.0         11,912.0          14,074.2           71,534.7          190,209.8         332,850.8          505,126.6
Forecasted Cash Flow Statement

Cash Flow Statement                                                ------- Actuals -------          ---------------------------- Forecast ------------------------------------
                                                                                                           Projected Fiscal Years Ending May 31
                                                                       2010          2011          2012          2013          2014         2015                         2016
Funds From Operating Activities
Net income                                                         15,385.0       11,912.0      14,074.2       71,534.7         190,209.8         332,850.8        505,126.6
Depreciation of PP&E                                               19,551.0       43,100.0      80,731.0     153,767.4          215,287.5         284,691.0        377,975.9
Provision for doubtful accounts and sales returns                   1,811.0        3,109.0       2,892.2        6,562.4           10,132.3          14,073.2        19,281.7
Stock based compensation                                            8,832.0       29,768.0      86,283.8       97,615.2         145,398.2         185,765.6        251,336.4
Excess Income tax benefit from exercise of stock options            (129.0)      (1,600.0)     (4,314.2)      (4,880.8)          (7,269.9)         (9,288.3)      (12,566.8)
  Funds from operations                                            45,450.0       86,289.0    179,667.0      324,598.9          553,757.8         808,092.3      1,141,153.7
(Increase) / decrease in accounts receivable                      (35,677.0)    (54,908.0)    (52,519.0)     (82,197.8)       (133,871.7)        (77,416.9)      (169,276.5)
(Increase) / decrease in deferred comission                        (5,798.0)     (5,271.0)     (3,759.2)     (12,177.5)        (13,531.5)        (16,748.7)       (17,315.7)
(Increase) / decrease in other currents assets                     (4,259.0)    (14,111.0)    (15,105.6)     (22,139.3)        (33,021.7)        (22,379.9)       (42,970.2)
Increase / (decrease) in accounts payable                           15,595.0      36,950.0      23,842.5       36,532.5          48,193.8          53,201.7         70,314.9
Increase / (decrease) in accrued liabilities                        39,535.0      84,475.0      28,121.8       60,887.5          80,323.0          88,669.6        117,191.4
Increase / (decrease) in Deferred Revenue                                                       72,296.2      148,836.0         196,345.2         216,747.9        286,467.9
   Change in w orking capital                                       9,396.0      47,135.0       52,876.8      129,741.3         144,437.1         242,073.7        244,411.8
  Cash flow from operating activities                              54,846.0     133,424.0     232,543.8      454,340.3          698,194.9      1,050,166.0       1,385,565.5

Funds From Investing Activities
Acquisitions                                                       (4,467.0)     (7,404.0)
Net (increase) decrease in Investments                                     -   (239,419.0)   (243,576.3)     (10,145.3)       (141,090.0)        (70,390.0)       (19,404.6)
(increase) decrease in restricted cash and deposits                (1,140.0)     (2,681.0)
Increase/Decrease to PP&E                                         (50,026.0)    (88,978.0)    (65,556.4)     (95,154.3)       (121,587.4)       (133,694.9)      (134,971.6)
   Cash flow from investing activities                            (55,633.0)   (338,482.0)   (309,132.7)    (105,299.7)       (262,677.4)       (204,084.9)      (154,376.3)

Cash available for principal debt service after paying interest      (787.0)   (205,058.0)    (76,588.9)     349,040.6          435,517.6         846,081.1      1,231,189.2
Funds From Financing Activities
Issuance (purchase) of Equity Shares                                  910.0     439,627.0
Issuance (repayment) of Stock Options                               3,590.0      12,882.0
Repurchase of common stock                                          (175.0)        (44.0)
   Cash flow from financing activities                              4,325.0     452,465.0              -                -                  -                -                -
Effect of exchange rate changes                                       (73.0)     (1,310.0)

Beginning cash balance                                             89,979.0      93,444.0      339,541.0     262,952.1          611,992.8      1,047,510.4       1,893,591.5
Change in cash & equivalents                                        3,465.0     246,097.0     (76,588.9)     349,040.6          435,517.6        846,081.1       1,231,189.2
Ending cash balance                                                93,444.0     339,541.0      262,952.1     611,992.8        1,047,510.4      1,893,591.5       3,124,780.7
Forecasted Balance Sheet
LinkedIn has not recognized any impairment of goodwill in past many quarters even when it has been consistently
acquiring smaller companies. In 2012, 78% of the transaction value was recognized as Goodwill. Taking conservative
estimates, we believe that there can be some impairment (20% yearly) of goodwill in the coming years.
As a result of its IPO in 2011, LinkedIn currently has high level of cash and cash equivalents. we estimate this to go down
in the future. In past some quarters, this has already shown a downward trend as a result of a series of acquisitions.
Balance Sheet Statement                                                   ------- Actuals -------            ---------------------------- Forecast ------------------------------------
                                                                                                                    Projected Fiscal Years Ending May 31
                                                                             2010           2011             2012         2013          2014         2015                         2016
Assets
Cash & equivalents                                                        92,951.0     339,048.0       262,952.1      611,992.8        1,047,510.4      1,893,591.5       3,124,780.7
Short Term Investments                                                           -     238,456.0       482,032.3      492,177.6          633,267.6        703,657.6         723,062.2
Accounts receivable                                                       58,263.0     111,372.0       163,891.0      246,088.8          379,960.5        457,377.4         626,653.9
Deffered Commisions                                                        8,684.0      13,594.0        17,353.2       29,530.7           43,062.2         59,810.9          77,126.6
Other current assets and prepaid expenses                                 12,308.0      23,457.0        38,562.6       60,701.9           93,723.6        116,103.5         159,073.7
Total current assets                                                     172,206.0     725,927.0       964,791.1    1,440,491.7        2,197,524.3      3,230,540.8       4,710,697.1

Property Plant and Equipm ent
  Net PP&E                                                                56,743.0     114,850.0       180,406.4      275,560.7          397,148.1         530,843.0        665,814.7

Net goodw ill                                                                    -      12,249.0       115,501.0       92,400.8           73,920.6         59,136.5          47,309.2
Intangible Assets                                                          5,232.0       8,095.0        35,841.6       41,217.8           47,400.5         54,510.6          62,687.2
Other non-current assets                                                   4,007.0      12,576.0        31,440.0       62,880.0          106,896.0        160,344.0         240,516.0
Total assets                                                             238,188.0     873,697.0     1,327,980.1    1,912,551.1        2,822,889.5      4,035,375.0       5,727,024.2

Liabilities & Shareholders Equity
Accounts payable                                                          12,886.0      28,217.0        52,059.5       88,592.0          136,785.8        189,987.5         260,302.4
Accrued Liabilities                                                       27,601.0      58,644.0        86,765.8      147,653.3          227,976.3        316,645.9         433,837.3
Deferred Revenue                                                          64,985.0     139,798.0       212,094.2      360,930.2          557,275.5        774,023.3       1,060,491.2
Short term debt                                                                  -             -               -              -                  -                -                 -
Total current liabilities                                                105,472.0     226,659.0       350,919.5      597,175.5          922,037.6      1,280,656.8       1,754,631.0

Long-term debt/liabilities                                                       -             -               -              -                  -                -                 -
Deferred Tax Liabilities                                                   6,625.0      18,551.0        50,087.7      100,175.4          170,298.2        255,447.3         383,170.9
Other non-current liabilities                                              1,861.0       3,508.0        21,048.0       42,096.0           71,563.2        107,344.8         161,017.2
Total Liabilities                                                        113,958.0     248,718.0       422,055.2      739,446.9        1,163,899.0      1,643,448.8       2,298,819.1

Total common equity                                                             4.0         10.0            11.0           11.0               11.0             11.0              11.0
Additional paid-in capital                                                 25,074.0    617,629.0       884,602.7    1,080,247.3        1,375,923.9      1,776,008.7       2,307,161.0
Retained earnings                                                         (4,675.0)      7,340.0        21,311.2       92,845.9          283,055.7        615,906.5       1,121,033.1
Other equity                                                             103,827.0             -               -              -                  -                -                 -
Total Shareholders' Equity                                               124,230.0     624,979.0       905,924.9    1,173,104.2        1,658,990.6      2,391,926.1       3,428,205.1
Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity                                  238,188.0     873,697.0     1,327,980.1    1,912,551.1        2,822,889.5      4,035,375.0       5,727,024.2


Sensitivity Analysis

A sensitivity analysis on the average price given by Terminal Growth Rate based target price and EV/EBITDA exit multiple
based target price produces following results.
                                                                                  EV/ EBITDA for Terminal Value
                                          Terminal Growth Rate




                                                                          16.0x        16.5x         17.1x      17.5x          18.0x
                                                                 2.50%   119.66       121.47        123.64     125.08         126.89
                                                                 2.75%   122.49       124.29        126.46     127.90         129.71
                                                                 3.00%   125.67       127.47        129.64     131.08         132.89
                                                                 3.25%   129.28       131.09        133.26     134.70         136.51
                                                                 3.50%   133.42       135.22        137.39     138.83         140.64
Disclaimer

Information used in this report and underlying analysis is public information and is gathered from sources like
Bloomberg, Google Finance, Thomson Reuters’ Investext, EDGAR, Company websites etc. we do not hold any securities
related to the companies mentioned in this report.

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LinkedIn

  • 1. Jan 5th, 2013 LinkedIn Corporation Naveen Garg NYSE: LNKD Portfolio Manager (Tech & Telecom), RSIF CFA Level III Candidate, CFA Institute, VA, USA Recommendation: Buy MBA Candidate, Rotman School of Management, UofT Target Price: $129.64 naveen.garg13@rotman.utoronto.ca Last Close Price: $110.30 Cell: +1 (416) 671 6440 Stock Price 110.30 Industry/Sector Internet/ Tech TTM P/E 735.65 52 Week Price Range 61.90 - 125.50 Market Cap. 12.16B Current Ratio 2.61 3-Month Avg. Vol. 2,012,160 Enterprise Value 12.04B Price/Sales 12.03 Shares Outstanding 107.45M Debt/ Equity 0 Basis of recommendation Summary: LinkedIn continues to grow at a high growth rate (2008- 2011 Revenue CAGR 87.5%) and we expect the revenue CAGR to be 49% over next 4 years. In our opinion with increased monetization of its user base and technology through a focus on sales and marketing, LinkedIn will be able to improve its profitability going further. Considering its revenue and earnings growth potential we believe Volume that LinkedIn is an undervalued stock. Revenue:  Increasing enterprise customer base is expected to provide steady and predictable revenue stream  New features like New Profile Page, Endorsements and Influencers Source: Yahoo Finance have improved user engagement and page views which in our opinion might result in stronger performance by marketing segment  We expect that the high growth rate in the user base in the emerging markets could lead to continuing high revenue growth  Improved economic outlook and recent trend in employment are expected to drive up recruitment Earnings:  We expect the net income and EPS growth to be consistently high in the coming years as a result of higher profit margins and growing revenues Source: LinkedIn Threat: 2011 2010 2009 2008 Revenue 522.0 243.0 120.0 79.0  Poor performance by Monster Worldwide had a significant Gross Profit 440.7 198.3 94.3 60.2 negative impact on LinkedIn’s share price even though LinkedIn’s Operating Income 25.84 19.58 -3.35 -5.51 numbers were stellar. In our opinion the two companies are very Net Income 11.91 3.43 -3.97 -4.52 different and in completely different stages of life cycles EPS 0.13 0.04 -0.04 -0.05 Valuation: (In millions of USD except EPS)  We value LinkedIn with a DCF to arrive at a price target of $129.64 Source: LinkedIn per share, 17.5% higher than the current market price of $110.30  Our target price is an equal weighted average (50:50) of DCF value using 3% terminal growth rate and 17.1x exit EV/EBITDA multiple based DCF value
  • 2. Valuation Summary LinkedIn continues to grow at a significantly high rate in all of its three product categories: Talent Solutions, Marketing Solutions and Premium Subscriptions; however as the base increases, the growth rate is expected to come down in the coming years. Following chart shows revenue growth forecast and the adjacent table shows some key projected numbers through 2016. 2011 A 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Revenue 522,189 964,065 1,640,592 2,533,070 3,518,288 4,820,415 EBITDA 68,945 101,227 246,089 455,953 703,658 1,012,287 EBIT 25,845 20,496 92,321 240,665 418,967 634,311 Net Income 11,912 14,074 71,535 190,210 332,851 505,127 FCFF 1,667 99,212 191,315 401,655 553,458 Source: LinkedIn, Research Forecast Note: All numbers in thousands of USD Source: LinkedIn, Research Forecasts Current Enterprise Value (EV) of LinkedIn is $12.04B. Forward 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E EV/EBITDA for the forecasted EBITDA is shown in the adjacent EV / EBITDA 135.4x 55.7x 30.1x 19.5x 13.5x table. Considering the current and future high growth rate of the company, forward EV/EBITDA indicates headroom for the stock price. Target Price Calculation: Using DCF method, with terminal growth rate of 3%, the calculated per share value is $119.37. Considering terminal value using exit EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.1x1, the target price per share is $139.91. The suggested target price of $129.64 is average of target price given by the two methods. At current market price of $110.30/share, the expected upside is close to 17.5%. Comparable Company Analysis LinkedIn has three very distinct revenue streams and a very unique underlying business model based on professional connections. We believe not one single company is truly comparable to LinkedIn. Below is a snapshot of some comparable companies in the three revenue streams based on the closest match of the revenue model. In our opinion taking average or median multiples to value LinkedIn might not be a practical approach as these companies are at different stages in their growth cycles and have different business models. Overall, LinkedIn is priced at higher multiples in all three revenue categories. These higher multiples can be attributed to the significantly higher growth rate of LinkedIn’s user base and revenue as compared to the competitors. Comparable companies' valuation ratios Last Close No. of Mkt Cap EV Sales EBITDA P/E EV / Rev. EV / EBITDA P/Sales (Jan 05, 13) Shares Marketing Solutions LinkedIn NYSE:LNKD 113.15 12,160 107.5 11,481 964 206 735.65 11.91 55.73 12.61 Facebook NASDAQ:FB 28.76 62,310 2,170.0 52,756 5,024 2,805 267.34 10.50 18.81 12.42 Renren NYSE:RENN 3.76 1,390 370.2 588.02 174 -82 -0.03 3.38 - 8.00 Google NASDAQ: GOOG 737.97 242,490 328.6 202,975 41,548 18,536 23.12 4.89 10.95 5.84 Yahoo! NASDAQ: YHOO 19.86 23,490 1,180.0 15,157 4,457 1,656 6.02 3.40 9.15 5.26 Talent Solutions LinkedIn NYSE:LNKD 113.15 12,160 107.5 11,481 964 206 735.65 11.91 55.73 12.61 51Job NASDAQ: JOBS 53.02 1,530 28.8 1,150 1,434 510 21 0.80 2.26 1.07 Monster Worldwide NYSE:MWW 5.97 699.1 117.1 720 896 126 9.38 0.80 5.71 0.78 Dice Holdings NYSE:DHX 9.52 567.7 59.6 560 194 76 15.91 2.89 7.36 2.93 Premium Subscriptions LinkedIn NYSE:LNKD 113.15 12,160 107.5 11,481 964 206 735.65 11.91 55.73 12.61 NetFlix NASDAQ: NFLX 95.98 5,330 55.6 4,933 3,599 142 121 1.37 34.74 1.48 Monster Worldwide NYSE:MWW 5.97 699.1 117.1 720 896 126 9.38 0.80 5.71 0.78 51Job NASDAQ: JOBS 53.02 1,530 28.8 1,150 1,434 510 21 0.80 2.26 1.07 Note: Market Cap, No. of Shares, EV, Revenue and EBITDA numbers are millions. Sales and EBITDA are analyst consensus forecast for FY 2012. Source: Thomson Reuters 1 EV/EBITDA multiple for internet industry as per NYU-Stern publication
  • 3. Business Overview LinkedIn is world’s largest online professional network with more than 200 million members across the world. Its members manage professional identity and stay connected with their network through the website. Additionally, LinkedIn is also used by the corporations for marketing and recruitment purposes. LinkedIn has adapted to various platforms such as desktop computers, smartphones and tablet computers. There are three main product lines: Talent Solutions: Offerings in this product line provide an effective way for enterprises and professional organizations to efficiently identify and acquire the right talent for their needs. Marketing Solutions: Through offerings in this product line, LinkedIn enables marketers and advertisers to reach and engage with the audience and connect them to relevant products and services. Premium Subscriptions: Premium subscription services target small- and medium-sized enterprises and professional organizations, individual members and business groups in larger enterprises. Offerings in this product line are designed to manage their professional identity, grow their business and connect with talent. Source: LinkedIn All three revenue streams are growing at a high rate with the largest segment – Talent Solutions, growing at the highest rate. LinkedIn’s revenue share from Talent Solutions is increasing while from Marketing is decreasing. Increasing use of smartphones and tablets is posing a challenge in growing revenue from marketing stream. Smaller size of screen in these devices provides less or no space to show advertisements. However, as LinkedIn’s business model is relatively less dependent on online advertising, in our opinion this is not as big threat for the company as it is for other players like Facebook and Google. Geographic Diversification: Revenue Growth (2012Q3 YoY) 117% 108% 125% Along with well-established diversified revenue streams, other 89% 100% 73% important aspect of LinkedIn’s business model is geographic 75% diversification of revenue. The user base in countries outside the 50% United States is growing at a significantly higher pace. Adjacent 25% figure shows regional revenue growth in Q3-2012. 0% USA Other EMEA APAC Americas Company Strategy A large and connected user base is the key to the success for LinkedIn. To increase the user base quickly, company focuses on multiple things such as registration optimization, seamless integration with other applications and suggested connections. LinkedIn aspires to be the professional profile of every professional in the world. To achieve this, the company emphasizes to gain trust of its members and continuously develops features which appeal to a broader base of professionals. In the recent times, LinkedIn has launched new features using which members can share information with
  • 4. each other. This initiative is increasing the engagement of its existing user base. We believe this can be useful in generating more revenue from the marketing segment as this revenue is dependent on page views. Another key aspect of LinkedIn’s strategy is to adapt to the need of its workforce, customers and partners. It has released application libraries using which developers can create new applications. The company has opened offices across the world and increasing number of sales personnel is driving the monetization of investments in technology. Recognizing changing market landscape, LinkedIn has put conscious efforts to adapt to tablet and mobile platforms as a significant number of users are accessing LinkedIn through these devices. Recent Business Highlights: 200 Million Milestone: Last week LinkedIn crossed 200 million users. This reinforces LinkedIn’s consistent high growth rate of the user base. This is approximately 35% growth during 2012. Acquisitions: In May, 2012 LinkedIn paid $74.1M to acquire Slideshare, Inc., a privately held provider of a professional and educational content platform that allows users to upload documents to share ideas, conduct research and connect with others. Offerings of Slideshare are already integrated with LinkedIn by Q3-2012. In first nine months of 2012, LinkedIn also acquired 5 other smaller companies for a total of $58.2M. Growth in international markets: Following are key milestones in terms of the user base achieved by the company in recent months: 10 million in UK, 2 million in South Africa, 1 million in Denmark, 1 million in Malaysia among others. This shows that the company is able to consistently broaden its user base globally. We believe this larger user base will pave a way for future business development in international markets. Industry Overview LinkedIn’s industry can be broadly described as online networking; however the company has focused itself in the professional networking space. The market for online professional networks is new and rapidly evolving. In this new market LinkedIn is an undisputed industry leader. Competition LinkedIn faces significant competition in all aspects of its business. Other companies such as Facebook, Google, Microsoft and Twitter are developing or could develop competing solutions. Further, some of these companies are partnering with third parties to offer products and services that could compete with LinkedIn’s offerings. LinkedIn also faces competition from a number of smaller companies in the international markets, such as Xing in Germany and Viadeo in France provide online professional networking solutions, as well as Internet companies in the customer relationship management market, such as salesforce.com (Chatter and Jigsaw). LinkedIn also competes with established online recruiting companies such as Monster, CareerBuilder and Indeed.com, talent management companies, such as Taleo (acquired by Oracle), and traditional recruiting firms. Additionally, other companies, including newcomers to the recruiting industry, may partner with internet companies, including social networking companies, to provide services that compete with our solutions, either on their own or as third party applications, such as BranchOut. Additionally, LinkedIn competes with online and offline outlets that generate revenue from advertisers and marketers. In this challenging market space LinkedIn has been able to redefine the business model by building a huge user base and providing them an ability to connect with others in a professional capacity. This value proposition has not been replicated by others at the large scale as done by LinkedIn. Taking example from Orkut and Facebook we can argue that a larger user base is critical in engaging people and the survival is also dependent on this. We think that this aspect put LinkedIn in an advantageous position as compared to others.
  • 5. Facebook Threat Facebook does have a much larger use base than LinkedIn; however, a large part of that user base is not a target segment for the company. LinkedIn primarily targets recruiters, professionals and business owners. In many studies it has been shown that people generally prefer not to mix their personal and professional networks. This provides further support to the belief that LinkedIn will be able to maintain its niche market. Risk Factors LinkedIn faces multiple business risks. Some of the main risks which could affect company’s financial performance and hence valuations are as follows: Competition: Competitors are developing features which overlap with the functionality provided by LinkedIn. For example, recently Facebook revamped its search feature to allow users to find connections and content more easily. If competitors find a better way to allow the users to build a professional network or find professional connections, it can be a significant challenge for the company. Monetization of platform and products: In last two years LinkedIn has increased its workforce by twofold and has invested heavily in revamping the platform and developing new features. Going further, the focus will be monetization of these investments. If company fails to realize the expected benefits, there can be significant downside risk in terms of valuation. In particular, there are concerns around advertisement revenue as more and more people are using handheld devices to access LinkedIn. Information Security: LinkedIn stores and transmits member and customer information some of which is private and sensitive in nature. Security breach might expose the company to litigation or business disruption. In June, 2012 password information of 6.5 million LinkedIn users was compromised. Acquisitions: Lately, LinkedIn has been very aggressive in terms of acquisitions. In May 2012, it acquired Slideshare Inc. for $74.1M, LinkedIn’s largest acquisition so far. Additionally, the company also acquired five other companies for $58.2M in 2012. 78% of the transaction value of these acquisitions is recognized as goodwill which might result in impairment charges in the future. These acquisitions will also have dilutive effect on LinkedIn’s existing shareholders as both cash and equity component is being used for these deals. One of the prime motives behind these acquisitions is to get access to the talent of these smaller companies; however, if these people leave the company in large numbers, this motive might not be fulfilled. Low number of active users: Number of registered members in LinkedIn network is higher than the number of actual members due to multiple registrations, dead people and fictitious profiles. Additionally, substantial majority of page views are generated by a minority of members who use LinkedIn regularly. Corporate Governance: As of Sep 30, 2012, 63% of the voting rights are held by Mr. Reid Hoffman, the founder of the company. This type of situation might generate corporate governance issues as shareholders, apart from the founder, are always in minority from voting right perspective. Foreign Currency Risk: LinkedIn is generating increasing share of revenue from international markets which exposes the company to foreign currency risk. Cyclicality of business: LinkedIn considers first quarter of the year a lull period for talent solutions business and third quarter for Marketing Solutions. Currently, as the growth is significantly high, these lull periods do not show significant effect in the numbers; however, as the growth rate is expected to go down in the coming years, the cyclicality of the business might be more pronounced.
  • 6. Valuation Revenue Forecast LinkedIn is witnessing a significant growth rate in all of its revenue segments over past some years. As the base grows, the growth rate is expected to go down but still it will maintain a high level for next some years. Marketing segment growth rate is expected to be the slowest as the increased usage of mobile devices provides limited opportunity to show advertisements. As the user base builds up in the international markets, the revenue growth is expected to in general remain high. Additionally, LinkedIn has started focusing on building a strong and international field presence through sales and marketing personnel. This could further support revenue growth from the enterprise customers in Talent Solutions and Marketing Solutions revenue streams. In the recently reported numbers LinkedIn also showed increase in user engagement trends due to recently launched features. Following are the estimated revenue growth forecast: Sales Forecast ------------------ Actuals ------------------ ------------------------------ Forecast ------------------------------------ Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 31 Unit Type 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Segm ented sales Hiring Solutions [#] [input] 36,136.0 101,884.0 260,885.0 521,770.0 939,186.0 1,502,697.6 2,103,776.6 2,945,287.3 [%] [calc], [input] 181.9% 156.1% 100.0% 80.0% 60.0% 40.0% 40.0% Marketing Solutions [#] [input] 38,278.0 79,309.0 155,848.0 252,473.8 378,710.6 530,194.9 689,253.4 896,029.4 [%] [calc], [input] 107.2% 96.5% 62.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 30.0% Premium Subscriptions [#] [input] 45,713.0 61,906.0 105,456.0 189,820.8 322,695.4 500,177.8 725,257.8 979,098.1 [%] [calc], [input] 35.4% 70.3% 80.0% 70.0% 55.0% 45.0% 35.0% TOTAL [#] [calc] 120,127.0 243,099.0 522,189.0 964,064.6 1,640,592.0 2,533,070.3 3,518,287.8 4,820,414.7 [%] [calc] 102.4% 114.8% 84.6% 70.2% 54.4% 38.9% 37.0% Forecasted Income Statement As the monetization of investments in platform and features is expected to improve in the coming years, we estimate some further improvements in the profit margins. The future addition to the workforce is expected to be focused on sales and marketing staff which cost relatively less than the recent large number of newly hired software engineers. Income Statement ------- Actuals ------- ---------------------------- Forecast ------------------------------------ Projected Fiscal Years Ending Dec 31 (in thousands of U.S. dollars) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Revenues 243,099.0 522,189.0 964,064.6 1,640,592.0 2,533,070.3 3,518,287.8 4,820,414.7 Cost of goods sold (44,826.0) (81,448.0) (125,328.4) (213,277.0) (303,968.4) (422,194.5) (530,245.6) Gross profit 198,273.0 440,741.0 838,736.2 1,427,315.0 2,229,101.9 3,096,093.3 4,290,169.1 SG&A (159,146.0) (371,796.0) (737,509.4) (1,181,226.2) (1,773,149.2) (2,392,435.7) (3,277,882.0) EBITDA 39,127.0 68,945.0 101,226.8 246,088.8 455,952.7 703,657.6 1,012,287.1 Depreciation & amortization (19,551.0) (43,100.0) (80,731.0) (153,767.4) (215,287.5) (284,691.0) (377,975.9) EBIT 19,576.0 25,845.0 20,495.7 92,321.4 240,665.2 418,966.5 634,311.2 Other Non- operating Income (expense) (610.0) (2,903.0) (2,903.0) (2,903.0) (2,903.0) (2,903.0) (2,903.0) Earnings before taxes 18,966.0 22,942.0 17,592.7 89,418.4 237,762.2 416,063.5 631,408.2 Tax expense (3,581.0) (11,030.0) (3,518.5) (17,883.7) (47,552.4) (83,212.7) (126,281.6) Net earnings(loss) from continuing item s 15,385.0 11,912.0 14,074.2 71,534.7 190,209.8 332,850.8 505,126.6 Extraordinary gains / losses (11,956.0) Minority interest Net income 3,429.0 11,912.0 14,074.2 71,534.7 190,209.8 332,850.8 505,126.6
  • 7. Forecasted Cash Flow Statement Cash Flow Statement ------- Actuals ------- ---------------------------- Forecast ------------------------------------ Projected Fiscal Years Ending May 31 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Funds From Operating Activities Net income 15,385.0 11,912.0 14,074.2 71,534.7 190,209.8 332,850.8 505,126.6 Depreciation of PP&E 19,551.0 43,100.0 80,731.0 153,767.4 215,287.5 284,691.0 377,975.9 Provision for doubtful accounts and sales returns 1,811.0 3,109.0 2,892.2 6,562.4 10,132.3 14,073.2 19,281.7 Stock based compensation 8,832.0 29,768.0 86,283.8 97,615.2 145,398.2 185,765.6 251,336.4 Excess Income tax benefit from exercise of stock options (129.0) (1,600.0) (4,314.2) (4,880.8) (7,269.9) (9,288.3) (12,566.8) Funds from operations 45,450.0 86,289.0 179,667.0 324,598.9 553,757.8 808,092.3 1,141,153.7 (Increase) / decrease in accounts receivable (35,677.0) (54,908.0) (52,519.0) (82,197.8) (133,871.7) (77,416.9) (169,276.5) (Increase) / decrease in deferred comission (5,798.0) (5,271.0) (3,759.2) (12,177.5) (13,531.5) (16,748.7) (17,315.7) (Increase) / decrease in other currents assets (4,259.0) (14,111.0) (15,105.6) (22,139.3) (33,021.7) (22,379.9) (42,970.2) Increase / (decrease) in accounts payable 15,595.0 36,950.0 23,842.5 36,532.5 48,193.8 53,201.7 70,314.9 Increase / (decrease) in accrued liabilities 39,535.0 84,475.0 28,121.8 60,887.5 80,323.0 88,669.6 117,191.4 Increase / (decrease) in Deferred Revenue 72,296.2 148,836.0 196,345.2 216,747.9 286,467.9 Change in w orking capital 9,396.0 47,135.0 52,876.8 129,741.3 144,437.1 242,073.7 244,411.8 Cash flow from operating activities 54,846.0 133,424.0 232,543.8 454,340.3 698,194.9 1,050,166.0 1,385,565.5 Funds From Investing Activities Acquisitions (4,467.0) (7,404.0) Net (increase) decrease in Investments - (239,419.0) (243,576.3) (10,145.3) (141,090.0) (70,390.0) (19,404.6) (increase) decrease in restricted cash and deposits (1,140.0) (2,681.0) Increase/Decrease to PP&E (50,026.0) (88,978.0) (65,556.4) (95,154.3) (121,587.4) (133,694.9) (134,971.6) Cash flow from investing activities (55,633.0) (338,482.0) (309,132.7) (105,299.7) (262,677.4) (204,084.9) (154,376.3) Cash available for principal debt service after paying interest (787.0) (205,058.0) (76,588.9) 349,040.6 435,517.6 846,081.1 1,231,189.2 Funds From Financing Activities Issuance (purchase) of Equity Shares 910.0 439,627.0 Issuance (repayment) of Stock Options 3,590.0 12,882.0 Repurchase of common stock (175.0) (44.0) Cash flow from financing activities 4,325.0 452,465.0 - - - - - Effect of exchange rate changes (73.0) (1,310.0) Beginning cash balance 89,979.0 93,444.0 339,541.0 262,952.1 611,992.8 1,047,510.4 1,893,591.5 Change in cash & equivalents 3,465.0 246,097.0 (76,588.9) 349,040.6 435,517.6 846,081.1 1,231,189.2 Ending cash balance 93,444.0 339,541.0 262,952.1 611,992.8 1,047,510.4 1,893,591.5 3,124,780.7
  • 8. Forecasted Balance Sheet LinkedIn has not recognized any impairment of goodwill in past many quarters even when it has been consistently acquiring smaller companies. In 2012, 78% of the transaction value was recognized as Goodwill. Taking conservative estimates, we believe that there can be some impairment (20% yearly) of goodwill in the coming years. As a result of its IPO in 2011, LinkedIn currently has high level of cash and cash equivalents. we estimate this to go down in the future. In past some quarters, this has already shown a downward trend as a result of a series of acquisitions. Balance Sheet Statement ------- Actuals ------- ---------------------------- Forecast ------------------------------------ Projected Fiscal Years Ending May 31 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Assets Cash & equivalents 92,951.0 339,048.0 262,952.1 611,992.8 1,047,510.4 1,893,591.5 3,124,780.7 Short Term Investments - 238,456.0 482,032.3 492,177.6 633,267.6 703,657.6 723,062.2 Accounts receivable 58,263.0 111,372.0 163,891.0 246,088.8 379,960.5 457,377.4 626,653.9 Deffered Commisions 8,684.0 13,594.0 17,353.2 29,530.7 43,062.2 59,810.9 77,126.6 Other current assets and prepaid expenses 12,308.0 23,457.0 38,562.6 60,701.9 93,723.6 116,103.5 159,073.7 Total current assets 172,206.0 725,927.0 964,791.1 1,440,491.7 2,197,524.3 3,230,540.8 4,710,697.1 Property Plant and Equipm ent Net PP&E 56,743.0 114,850.0 180,406.4 275,560.7 397,148.1 530,843.0 665,814.7 Net goodw ill - 12,249.0 115,501.0 92,400.8 73,920.6 59,136.5 47,309.2 Intangible Assets 5,232.0 8,095.0 35,841.6 41,217.8 47,400.5 54,510.6 62,687.2 Other non-current assets 4,007.0 12,576.0 31,440.0 62,880.0 106,896.0 160,344.0 240,516.0 Total assets 238,188.0 873,697.0 1,327,980.1 1,912,551.1 2,822,889.5 4,035,375.0 5,727,024.2 Liabilities & Shareholders Equity Accounts payable 12,886.0 28,217.0 52,059.5 88,592.0 136,785.8 189,987.5 260,302.4 Accrued Liabilities 27,601.0 58,644.0 86,765.8 147,653.3 227,976.3 316,645.9 433,837.3 Deferred Revenue 64,985.0 139,798.0 212,094.2 360,930.2 557,275.5 774,023.3 1,060,491.2 Short term debt - - - - - - - Total current liabilities 105,472.0 226,659.0 350,919.5 597,175.5 922,037.6 1,280,656.8 1,754,631.0 Long-term debt/liabilities - - - - - - - Deferred Tax Liabilities 6,625.0 18,551.0 50,087.7 100,175.4 170,298.2 255,447.3 383,170.9 Other non-current liabilities 1,861.0 3,508.0 21,048.0 42,096.0 71,563.2 107,344.8 161,017.2 Total Liabilities 113,958.0 248,718.0 422,055.2 739,446.9 1,163,899.0 1,643,448.8 2,298,819.1 Total common equity 4.0 10.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 Additional paid-in capital 25,074.0 617,629.0 884,602.7 1,080,247.3 1,375,923.9 1,776,008.7 2,307,161.0 Retained earnings (4,675.0) 7,340.0 21,311.2 92,845.9 283,055.7 615,906.5 1,121,033.1 Other equity 103,827.0 - - - - - - Total Shareholders' Equity 124,230.0 624,979.0 905,924.9 1,173,104.2 1,658,990.6 2,391,926.1 3,428,205.1 Total Liabilities & Shareholders Equity 238,188.0 873,697.0 1,327,980.1 1,912,551.1 2,822,889.5 4,035,375.0 5,727,024.2 Sensitivity Analysis A sensitivity analysis on the average price given by Terminal Growth Rate based target price and EV/EBITDA exit multiple based target price produces following results. EV/ EBITDA for Terminal Value Terminal Growth Rate 16.0x 16.5x 17.1x 17.5x 18.0x 2.50% 119.66 121.47 123.64 125.08 126.89 2.75% 122.49 124.29 126.46 127.90 129.71 3.00% 125.67 127.47 129.64 131.08 132.89 3.25% 129.28 131.09 133.26 134.70 136.51 3.50% 133.42 135.22 137.39 138.83 140.64 Disclaimer Information used in this report and underlying analysis is public information and is gathered from sources like Bloomberg, Google Finance, Thomson Reuters’ Investext, EDGAR, Company websites etc. we do not hold any securities related to the companies mentioned in this report.