Organic Photovoltaic Markets 2015-2022 Sample Chapter

n-tech Research Report
Organic Photovoltaic Markets – 2015 – 2022
Issue date: January 2015
Code: Nano-803
n-tech Research PO Box 3840 Glen Allen, VA 23058
Phone: 804-938-0030
Email: info@ntechresearch.com

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Report Description:
OPV cells have continued to draw focus of much research because of the allure of their
core attributes: they are lightweight, flexible, inexpensive, highly tunable, and potentially
disposable. Yet OPV has spent the better part of a decade struggling to translate these
competitive promises from labs into real-world products. Expectations for OPV have
stalled over the past couple of years, not least due to the demise of its former figurehead
Konarka which defined OPV's persistent failure to make any money for investors.
Meanwhile, rival thin-film PV technologies and especially dye-sensitized solar (and its
newest iteration, perovskites) continue to press ahead and are arguably further along.
Despite OPV's persistent sluggishness, n-tech Research does see some encouraging
signs that the technology really is moving closer to commercial readiness -- and perhaps
even knocking on the doorstep, if one believes the most optimistic views -- enough to put
some early market traction within reach:
 Conversion efficiency levels continue to rise, now above 12% in labs and upwards
of 5% in pilot production.
 At least as much attention is on significantly improving lifetimes into double-digit
years.

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 Companies such as Heliatek and Belectric (which picked up some of the Konarka
technology) have picked up the mantle alongside promising startups, and some
key industry partners such as AGC Glass Europe and Armor Group have
strategically committed to OPV's eventual success.
 Several pilot production facilities are up and running, and recent field test
installations aim to show OPV in several different iterations
In this report, we identify where money could be made in OPV over the next eight-years,
given recent trends in technology and end markets. We explore the latest technical areas
of improvement, and where still more is needed, in cell/module components and materials
to OPV devices. We also examine the product and business strategies of the dozen or
so companies who are positioning themselves in the OPV landscape, as well as the
evolving expectations from the target markets of building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV)
and off-grid solar charging. The report includes detailed eight-year forecasts for OPV
materials and devices, and for the various markets where we expect OPV to enter the
market -- or at least where proponents hope it will.
Companies discussed in this report include: Armor Group, AGC, BASF, Belectric, CSEM
Brazil, DisaSolar, Eight19, Global Photonic Energy, Heliatek, Heraeus, Merck, Mitsubishi
Chemical, New Energy Technologies, Next Energy, Polyera, Solarmer, Sumitomo
Chemical, and Toshiba.
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
E.1 What's Changed in OPV
E.1.1 Moving the Goalposts, Again: Towards Realistic Expectations for OPV
E.2 Technology Update: Final Steps Toward Commercial Readiness
E.2.1 Moving That Efficiency Needle
E.2.2 What's Holding Back Lifetime Improvements?
E.2.3 Preparing for Production
E.2.4 Materials Trends
E.2.5 Device Structure Trends
E.3 Fighting for Position, and a New Threat Arises
E.3.1 The Threat of DSC and Perovskites
E.3.2 CIGS versus OPV
E.4 Application Update: Entering the Promised Land
E.4.1 Then as Now, BIPV Beckons

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Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
1.1.1 OPV Struggling But Good Long-Term Potential
1.1.2 OPV, DSC, CIGS: Where They Stand
1.1.3 Key Technical Challenges and Probable Solutions for OPV
1.1.4 Markets for OPV: Decisions, Decisions
1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report
1.3 Methodology of Report
1.4 Plan of this Report
Chapter Two: Technology Trends in Organic Photovoltaics
2.1 The Latest OPV Performance Improvements
2.1.1 Efficiency: Cracking the Double-Digits Code
2.1.2 Lifetimes: Still A Long Way to Go
2.1.3 Production Approaches: Progress for Printing
2.2 Materials Trends
2.2.1 Polymer vs. Solutions: Evening the Playing Field
2.2.2 Finding the Right Transparent Conductor
2.2.3 Graphene as a Photoactive Layer
2.2.4 Fullerene-free Acceptor Materials
2.2.5 A Word About Substrates
2.2.6 Research Directions in OPV Materials
2.3 Device Structure Trends
2.3.1 Improved Hole and Electron Extraction Layers
2.3.2 Moving toward Tunable Bandgap and Solubility
2.3.3 Stack for Success: From Single to Tandem/Cascading Architectures
2.4 Collaborative Industry OPV Research Efforts
2.5 Key Points from this Chapter
Chapter Three: Markets for OPV
3.1 Making the Case for OPV
3.2 Competitive Advantages: OPV, DSC, and Thin-Film
3.2.1 OPV and DSC: Where Are They Now?
3.2.2 Thin-Film: CIGS and CdTe
3.3 Application Status of OPV
3.3.1 BIPV: Ready or Not?
3.3.2 Solar Chargers: Near-Term Lure, Long-Term Mirage?
3.4.3 Other Off-Grid Applications: Can the Case Still be Made?
3.3.4 Which Market Strategy Is Right for OPV Right Now?
3.4 Key Points from This Chapter
Chapter Four: OPV Vendors and Suppliers, Strategies and Technologies
4.1.1 Technology Summary
4.1.2 Areas of Technology Improvements

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4.1.3 Manufacturing Progress
4.1.4 Market Strategy
4.1.5 Key Partnership: AGC
4.1.6 Pilot Projects in the Field
4.1.7 Funding Picture
4.2 Armor Group (France)
4.2.2 Technology Progress
4.2.3 Business Outlook
4.3 Belectric (Germany)
4.3.1 OPV Products
4.3.2 Key Partnerships
4.4 AGC (Japan)
4.5 Mitsubishi Chemical (Japan)
4.5.2 Pilot Project
4.6 Next Energy (United States)
4.6.1 Technology Summary
4.6.3 Emphasis on Partnerships
4.6.4 Funding and Investors
4.7 Merck (Germany)
4.7.1 Technology Collaborations
4.8 CSEM Brasil (Switzerland/Brazil)
4.9 Sumitomo Chemical (Japan)
4.10 Toshiba (Japan)
4.10.1 Technical Progress
4.11 BASF (Germany)
4.12 Solarmer (United States)

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4.13 Heraeus (Germany)
4.13.2 Market Strategy and Business Outlook
4.14 Eight19 (U.K.)
4.15 DisaSolar (France)
4.16 Past Praise: Where Are They Now?
4.16.1 Konarka
4.16.2 Global Photonic Energy
4.16.3 New Energy Technologies
4.16.4 Polyera
Chapter Five: Eight-Year Forecasts and Market Analysis for OPV
5.1 Key Factors Driving OPV
5.1.1 Forecasting Methodology
5.1.2 Assumptions and Scenarios
5.2 Eight-Year Forecasts for OPV
5.2.1 Off-Grid OPV Markets
5.2.2 Grid-Connected Markets
5.2.3 OPV Materials and Devices
5.2.4 Summaries of OPV Markets
Acronyms and Abbreviations Used In this Report
About the Author
List of Exhibits
Exhibit E-1: Recent BIPV Pilot Projects for OPV
Exhibit E-2: Summary of OPV Market by Applications 2015-2022
Exhibit 2-1: OPV Efficiency-Related Improvements
Exhibit 2-2: Polymer vs. Oligomer OPV Pros and Cons
Exhibit 2-3: Important Parameters for Transparent Conductors Used for PV Electrodes
Exhibit 2-4: Forecast of Transparent Conductive Materials Requirement in OPV
Exhibit 2-5: Structure of a Bulk Heterojunction OPV Cell Architecture
Exhibit 2-6: Industry Collaborative OPV Research Projects
Exhibit 3-1: OPV Firms and their Go-To-Market Goals
Exhibit 3-2: BIPV glass in Various Applications and its Opportunities
Exhibit 3-3: OE-A Expectations for OPV Market Penetration
Exhibit 5-1: Efficiency Improvements Over Time in the OPV Market 2015-2022

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Exhibit 5-2: Off-Grid OPV Market by Applications 2015-2022
Exhibit 5-3: Grid-Connected OPV Market by Applications 2015-2022
Exhibit 5-4: BIPV Market Scenarios
Exhibit 5-5: OPV Materials Market 2015-2022
Exhibit 5-6: Summary of the OPV Market 2015-2022
Exhibit 5-7: Summary of OPV Market by Applications 2015-2022

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Chapter One: Introduction
1.1 Background to this Report
Outside of the mainstream silicon- and thin-film based solar PV offerings, a group of
alternative solar PV technologies have long captivated researchers' interest.
Among them is organic photovoltaics (OPV), which, although it far trails more mainstream
technologies in raw power conversion efficiency offers some other intriguing capabilities
that envision success in some significant market opportunities: from building-integrated
systems such as facades, to power-charging devices in greatly varying styles from finger-
size strips up to awnings.
OPV cells have continued to draw focus of much research because of the allure of their
core attributes: they are lightweight, flexible, inexpensive, highly tunable, and potentially
disposable.
The main advantage of organic materials is the claimed ability to produce photovoltaic
devices using techniques that can enable low-cost, high-throughput manufacturing such
as roll-to-roll (R2R). Besides processing simplicity, organic semiconductor materials have
a very high absorption coefficient that allows the use of thin films while still absorbing a
sufficient portion of the solar spectrum.
What OPV however has signally failed to do is make any money for investors and the big
question hanging over OPV is whether it ever will!
Since our last report in 2012 the assets of Konarka, then the industry's leading company,
were essentially absorbed by Belectric, with Konarka shareholders getting little if anything
out of the deal. Several other OPV suppliers have gone quiet (such as Solarmer), though
some seem to be still tending to their research knitting (NanoFlex née Global Photonic
Energy).
OPV's journey to commercialization has been longer than hoped, and rocky for some.
What seems to have kept hope alive is that the underpinning OPV technologies and
materials have seen some significant improvements in the past 12-24 months, from
conversion efficiency to lifetimes. They do seem quite closer to achieving levels perceived
as necessary for commercialization—and perhaps even knocking on the doorstep, if one
believes the most optimistic views.
1.1.1 OPV Struggling But Good Long-Term Potential
Those various capabilities of OPV—reduction in material used, flexibility, low-cost
manufacturing techniques—have led to the implication that organic semiconductors have

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the potential to make a significant impact in certain PV markets. But it is hard to deny
that OPV continues to have the lingering whiff of the science project about it:
 First of all, it has proven difficult to devise optimal material sets and chemical
synthesis processes that can produce efficiencies above 10 percent in commercial
cells. The best OPV cells produced in a lab top out between 10 percent-12 percent,
led by Germany's Heliatek. But that company's highest OPV efficiency on a pilot
line is around 7 percent. No OPV cells with double-digit efficiency are in
commercialization.
 Moreover, the roll-to-roll production technique as envisaged by Heliatek is still
taking shape. Over the past year the company has reported an OPV film with 40
percent transparency and a 7.8 percent conversion rate (March 2014), and
modules from Heliatek’s roll-to-roll production show efficiencies of up to 6.8
percent on the active area of 1033 cm2 with a fill factor of 65.4 percent. (October
2014). It also claims to have made tandem modules in an R2R line with 5 percent
efficiency on the active module area. Yet again these are not yet achieved in a
production environment.
1.1.2 OPV, DSC, CIGS: Where They Stand
Further muddying the waters for OPV is its comparison to other alternative solar PV
technologies that are also relegated to niche status at the moment, but offer many of the
same benefits as OPV:
Dye-sensitized solar cells (DSC): Historically, DSC and OPV have been mentioned in
tandem since they both utilize organic materials; moreover they have generally offered
similar benefits (flexibility, potential low-cost processes and production) compared with
performance results (lower efficiencies and lifetimes, small-scale activity) that would
relegate them to the same non-mainstream end markets outside the Si and thin-film PV
worlds.
Yet, n-tech Research sees DSC as having pulled ahead of OPV towards
commercialization in many ways: conversion efficiency (up to 15 percent for cells in labs),
renewed investment activities (for example, helping G24 Power and Exeger), and pilot
projects (several going back to 2012, in the U.S. and Europe).
Add to this the recent clamor over perovskites, which we might think of as "next-
generation DSC," promising many of the same benefits as DSC and OPV, but with
promise of efficiencies rapidly approaching the 20 percent range of conventional silicon
solar technologies.
A great deal of research is being directed at perovskites, and DSC leader Dyesol has fully
shifted to commit to this technology. Yet the question is: will markets be willing to dial

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back the commercial timelines by another decade to get perovskites ready for market,
when OPV and others are right now approaching that doorstep?
Thin-film CIGS: Also in the mix is thin-film copper-indium-gallium-(di)selenide (CIGS),
which has been associated with BIPV since early on. While CIGS shares some
challenges with OPV and DSC in field performance (lifetimes and encapsulation), the
trajectory for CIGS conversion efficiency is vastly higher than those other two, already
approaching the low-20 percent range enjoyed by silicon-based PV.
1.1.3 Key Technical Challenges and Probable Solutions for OPV
From a technology perspective, OPV has a number of high-priority areas to focus on, and
possible pathways to solve them:
 Improve module lifetime, with creation of new low-cost barrier materials.
Organic semiconductors are susceptible to moisture and oxygen, and for long-term
stability OPV modules need a robust encapsulation system. This is a tractable
engineering challenge that has been solved in other organic optoelectronic arenas;
OLEDs being the obvious example.
To be competitive in commercial markets, OPV module manufacturers need to
devise better encapsulation technologies that ensure at least 10-year module
lifetimes—and ideally at least 20 years or more in some contexts such as BIPV.
 Raise conversion efficiency levels, either through multijunction structures
(which are more complex and costly) or through better single-junction
designs. Multiple junctions extend the absorption range of a PV cell for more
efficient light harvesting, although these are more complex and expensive to
manufacture. An alternative strategy would be to extend the range of single
junctions using better concepts, such as complementary absorbing acceptor-donor
pairs.
 Replace costly components such as the current transparent conducting
electrode materials (i.e. ITO) with lower-cost alternatives. ITO has been the
dominant transparent conductor used in OPV, largely because it has been readily
available with acceptable performance, allowing OPV companies to focus on
improvements in other parts of the technology. On the other hand, ITO requires
post-processing and/or intermediate layers, and flexibility is an issue, both of which
add complexity and extra costs.
Ultimately, we see OPVs turning to polymers (notably PEDOT:PSS), non-ITO
materials such as AZO—and even possibly silver nanowires (as seen already in a
pairing between Armor and Cambrios.

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 Reduce cost and manufacturing complexity by developing large-area
monolithic sub-module architectures. Reducing the transparent conducting
electrode (TCE) sheet resistance can lead to larger monolithic active areas, thus
simplifying manufacturing complexity compared to the current serially connected
thin-strip architectures. At the same time, this can allow for greater current-voltage
module flexibility, reduce the amount of interconnection metal, and improve yields
by eliminating processes such as laser scribing.
 Reduce defect density and improve manufacturing yield by developing
“thick junction” cells. In order to be solution processable, OPVs that are thin-
film structures (with junction less than 200 nm) face the challenge of increased
defect density (because of larger area) and loss of fill factor (because of shorting).
This is also true to a somewhat lesser extent for vacuum-evaporated systems.
New junction materials with better electrical properties—higher mobilities and
lower bimolecular recombination coefficients—can lead to the formation of thicker
junctions while maintaining fill factor. Such a development will enable
manufacturers to adopt larger monolithically active areas with lower defect
densities. Further, the formation of thicker junctions (400–500 nm) should be
enough to leverage the low-cost benefits of solution processing techniques.
We also note that AC integration of OPV technology will require new inverter and power
electronics—not only to connect to the conventional grid, but also to fully utilize some
unique benefits of OPVs such as low-light performance and better efficiency yields in
hotter environments.
1.1.4 Markets for OPV: Decisions, Decisions
One thing that hasn't really changed since n-tech Research’ 2012 OPV report is the dual
nature of OPV's perceived end-market strategies: off-grid charging applications and grid-
connected systems, mainly building-integrated (BIPV) and building-applied (BAPV).
Purely power-generation sectors such as utility power plants or even commercial/rooftop
arrays are not viewed as viable markets anytime soon if at all, as they are rather
impregnably held by c-Si solar PV technologies (and some thin-film) offering significantly
better LCOE.
What also seems unchanged is that OPV companies face a choice in their market
strategies:
 Niche products: Energy harvesting cells, portable solar chargers (including new
sectors such as wearable electronics), and visible and near-IR photodetection are
areas where very low (single-digit) power conversion efficiencies are acceptable,

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when balanced with other capabilities such as thinness/flexibility and low cost that
OPV can promise.
Importantly, a few years of lifetime is often sufficient in many of these applications,
to last as long as whatever they're attached to, be it a pack or table awning.
 BIPV: Efficiency requirements may not be as lax as in niche areas listed above,
but there is still a trade-off between conversion efficiencies and other desirable
factors such as low weight, flexibility, able to be integrated into a building's design
instead of bolted via racking on the roof, e.g. curtain walls, semi-transparent
windows.
What does have a higher priority is longer lifetimes: currently pushing 10 years,
but in recognition that 20+ years is most desirable to really open up these markets.
There is also the consideration to adhere to building codes, which vary from region
to region.
Another end-market that has a conceivable play for OPV is automotive, leveraging a
highly transparent flavor of OPV to pair with vision glass requirements. n-tech Research
is somewhat bearish on this market for now; not coincidentally this sector also has sniffed
around organic lighting (OLED), an evolving pairing which can help us think about where
OPV might similarly (or might not) find success in this sector. However we note that thin-
film CIGS, a competitor to OPV in most every application that OPV needs to go, appears
to be making inroads into automotive as well, given recent comments by Hanergy.
There are different and strong opinions among OPV companies about which is the right
end-market strategy to pursue. Most suppliers are adamant that BIPV is where the
necessary volumes are to generate real revenues and profits for OPV, and higher field
performance will happen soon enough to reward those with a little more patience. On the
other hand, some others think the efficiencies and lifetimes clearly are too low today to
really gain traction in BIPV, so they'll go after solar charging applications instead where
applications—if not profit margins—seem broadest.
It seems to n-tech Research that the volumes anticipated from BIPV, once performance
improvements can be realized (and suppliers we talked with are quite confident this will
happen), is the most likely way to get costs down to attract wide enough business, so this
seems to be the broader attractive play.
In any case, it seems to us that we're still maybe five years out from OPV truly establishing
a strong foothold in BIPV as its main addressable market. That includes the more
optimistic plans of Heliatek, which is arguably at the head of the class getting OPV to
commercial scale—and we can't envision OPV being a viable sector with a single supplier
at scale.

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1.2 Objective and Scope of this Report
The objective of this report is identify where money could be made in OPV over the next
eight-years, given recent trends in technology and end markets.
We identify where technical areas of improvement are being made and where still more
is needed, from cell/module components and materials to OPV devices. We also look at
the evolving expectations from the target markets of BIPV and off-grid solar charging. In
addition, we examine the product and business strategies of the dozen or so companies
who are positioning themselves to deliver value, and ultimately reap revenues and profits.
This report is international in scope. The forecasts herein are worldwide forecasts and we
have not been geographically selective in the firms that we have covered in this report or
interviewed in order to collect information.
1.3 Methodology of Report
This report is based on information obtained from various sources, including primary
interviews with industry business and technology executives. This study also draws from
n-tech Research' own extensive and recently published research in several related fields,
from various "next-generation" solar photovoltaics technologies to related end markets
including BIPV and BIPV glass. Wherever any information has been used from a previous
report, it has been reexamined, reconsidered, and updated accordingly.
This study also draws on various secondary data sources: industry trade associations,
technical literature from trade journals and conferences, press articles, and information
from relevant company websites.
1.4 Plan of this Report
In Chapter Two we explore the most recent technology improvements in OPV in the past
couple of years, from device structures to materials selection, and how these are
translating into higher efficiencies and lifetimes. We also lay out a roadmap of where we
believe OPV needs to go in the next five years, to be competitive not only in its target
markets but also fend off competitive technology offerings.
In Chapter Three we look more closely at OPV compared with related technologies DSC
and thin-film CIGS, and what OPV must do to address recent improvements in each of
those. We also explore the end markets for OPV including further discussion of the choice
among them for OPV suppliers.
In Chapter Four we examine the key companies involved with OPV, from materials
suppliers to the OPV cell and module suppliers, and the companies driving OPV's
penetration into key end markets, particularly BIPV.

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Chapter Five encompasses our forecasts for OPV over the next eight years (2015-2022),
tracking the materials and components of OPV systems as well as the end-markets they
aim to penetrate: on-grid (mainly BIPV/BAPV) and off-grid (solar chargers). Our
forecasting methodology is also included in this Chapter, which includes analysis of
broader regional market trends from end markets to solar power generation.

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