Dale Morris, Senior Economist, Royal Dutch Embassy, The Dutch National Plan: The Delta Commission; National Institute for Coastal & Harbor Infrastructure, John F. Kennedy Center, Boston, Nov. 12, 2013: "The Triple Threat of Rising Sea Levels, Extreme Storms and Aging Infrastructure: Coastal Community Responses and The Federal Role." See http://www.nichiusa.org or http://www.nichi.us
1. How the Dutch Keep
Their Feet Dry (and
not move to Germany)
Adaptation, Risk
Mitigation and National
Will
Dale T Morris
Senior Economist
Royal Netherlands Embassy
1
1-2-2014
2. Overview
•
The Netherlands: geography, adaptation, water wolves
•
Past Practices, Future Foundations
•
Multifunctional Infrastructure
•
The Future (How to Avoid Moving to Germany)
•
Collaborations in the US (time permitting)
1-2-2014
4. The Netherlands: a delta landscape, penetrated by
rivers, subject to sea and river flooding
4
5. The Netherlands, at risk
•
•
•
H A
R
•
•
400 miles of rivers (Rhine, Meuse)
draining NW Europe
60% of land at/below sea level
17 million people, 9 million of which live
below flood level
GDP 600 bln euro (70% of which
produced at/below sea-level)
2100 miles of flood defences, hundreds
of locks, sluices, pumping stations
•
•
100 km
storm surge, wet weather, heavy river
discharge, subsiding, drought
changing climate. SLR: 1 – 2.5 ft ~2100
•
water mgmt is a matter of national
survival and an opportunity
Deltacommissaris
5
16. Focus of past mitigation: shorten the coastline
300 45 km
750 50 km
Deltacommissaris
16
17. Delta Works: Reduce coastal/delta surge impacts
•Shorten coastline / strong spine
•Navigation open, working delta
•40 yr buildout
• Infra takes time
• Small projects first
• Redesigned to mitigate
substantial enviro/eco impacts in
estuary
Deltacommissaris
18. 1958 flood risk/safety standards established
“Never Again” mentality
Risk = Consequences x Probability = areas
with most risk have highest levels of
protection
Cost-Benefit Analysis for all major infra
projects (models recently updated given 40
rys of demographic and econ changes)
Caveat for US: Weather and landscape
differences
•
Slow-moving winter storms vs fastmoving tropical storms
•
Max storm windspeeds different
•
Rainfall manageable
•
Small- to- mid-sized rivers
1/10,000 = 1/500?
18
22. The Delta Under Pressure: future challenges, measured
More/intense
rainfall
More /extreme
storms?
Spatial
developments
Sealevel rise
(20 cm-->
60-85 cm/100y)
22
Increased
erosion
Salt
intrusion
Subsidence
10 cm/100yr
Increased
river
discharge
+ 10%
Decreased
river
discharge
- 60%
23. Present Flood Risk Management policy (2009)
(floor resistance to flood accomodation)
Multi-layered approach:
3. Disaster management
(Katrina effect)
2. Smart land-use planning
Room for the River
Living with Water: spatial
planning, urban design, multiple
layers of defense and green infra
1. Robust Protection
Deltacommissaris
27. Depoldering Noordwaard (11,000 square acres)
•
Goals:
•
Impacts:
•
Lower water level +/- 30 cm @
Gorinchem
Improve spatial quality of area
Restore coherence of environment
Enable current residents to maintain
residence, if desired
Maintenance of farming occupation
(either within polder or elsewhere)
•
Overflow area will flood 1-5 x year
Nearby areas 1 x in 25 years
Fort Steurgart remains protected
Most residences will now be “outside
the dikes”, on raised mounds
Flood levels no higher than 1 meter in
residences
New park / recreation / tourism
opportunities
Remains accessible to all users
Surprise! Reduce flood risk at
Dordrecht (90 cm)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
36. Room for the river | Ijssel River | Zutphen - Cortenoever
Extremesituation
Situationhigh water situation
Current with regular water flooding
Proposed situation
37. Waal River / Nijmegen Project
• River bottleneck, channel restriction from 1500m width to
450 m width
Options:
• Ag / undeveloped land
available to north
• Northern river bank land targeted
for development
• Key road / rail / harbor
infrastructure
37
1-2-2014
57. Rising seas
• Increasing sea level
• Increasing population and economic value in coastal zones
world wide
Photo: Stephen Wilkes
IPCC, 2007
National Geographic , Sept
2013
Deltacommissaris
59. Building with Nature?
let nature do part
of the work ...
while creating new
new eco-opportunities
young dune formation
young dune formation
Deltacommissaris
61. Dutch Context, coastal erosion
Shortage of natural sediment
Consequence: Structural erosion, 1996 coastline fixed
Solution: Nourishments
City of Egmond
Deltacommissaris
62. Development of nourishment strategy
Increase in volume
Change in design
Annual added sand volumes:
• Since 1990: 6 mln m3/yr
• Since 2001: 12 mln m3/yr
Prospect future : 40-85 mln m3/yr !!
Deltacommissaris
64. The Sand Engine!
Objectives:
1. Extra Safety
2. Nature area / „Quality of living‟
3. Innovation
„Hook‟ alternative
70 M Euro.
21 M m3 of sand
Deltacommissaris
65. The Sand Engine
• enhanced safety against flooding
• first: wave attenuator;
later: wider dune buffer
• cheaper per m3 compared to
traditional nourishments
• longer period between nourishments
• more time for beach / nearshore
ecosystem to recover
• recreation potential
• swimming, surfing, beach recreation
• wider dune area
• increased freshwater reserve
Deltacommissaris
76. 2nd Delta Commission: 2007/08 (Katrina inspired)
Working together with water: a living land
builds for its future
76
1-2-2014
77. Delta Commission, 2008:
The threat is not acute,
but measures to improve
flood risk management and
fresh water supply
should be prepared urgently!
Deltacommissaris
78. The Delta Program: safe and productive over 100
years (how to not move to Germany)
Independent Delta Commissioner (and small staff)
Cost-benefit analysis for every
project
2011 – 2014: Research program to identify and quantify challenges
Tipping points approach
2014: Delta Decisions
No-regret measures
2015 – 2020: Develop projects
Adaptive management
2020 -2050: 1 billion euro/yr for project implementation
78
Delta Programme Commissioner
2/1/2014
80. Dutch – American Collaborations
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Post-Katrina Louisiana
Mississippi River Floods (St Louis)
Los Angeles River
SLR in San Francisco Bay (early-stage)
Integrated Delta Management (CA Bay Delta)
Galveston (Ike Dike)
SLR Norfolk
SLR Miami
Sandy
80
1-2-2014
81. New Orleans: Urban Water Plan for a Living Water
System
Deltacommissaris
1-2-2014
Projected sea level rise (fig from IPCC)Increasing value/population/citysize at the coast = Increasing pressure/risk Photo damage Sandy. (National Geographic Summer 2013, http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2013/09/rising-seas/folger-text)
Altenative: Building with Nature..Maybe an option for some coastal problems??
Dutch erosion problem.Shortage of natural sedimentStructural erosion at large parts of the dutch coast. (see fig city of Egmond, > 200 m erosion and large part village lost)Initially (1700’s) counteracted by structures (groynes), but this did not resolve the issue.. So from 1950’s onwards Nourishments (sand mined from beyond the -20 m depth, O (10 km) offshore)Initial projects success -> Governmental policy: Dynamic preservation of the 1990 coastline and primary method =nourishments
Change in nourishment strategyIncrease in sizeShift from direct protection (put it where you need it) on the beach towards more indirect protection (feeder function) on the shoreface (cross-shore distrribution) towards concentrated placement (both along and cross shore redistribution of sediment.)
New step in nourishment design: Mega nourishmentFollows from the new framework / paradigm shift discussed.Increasing coastal squeezeNew multidsicplinary evaluation of projects
The Solution… Sand EngineDesignSeveral alternativesThis shape chosen based on evaluation of all aspects (multi-disciplinary; ecology, recreation (e.g. island not as good for recreation) )Lagoon area on north side: hopefully Nursery for fish and shellfish, attracting birds and sea mammalsVolume of O (20x) the annual nourishment volume added on this coastal cell over the last decade, so peninsula will last hopefully 20 years
The Solution… Sand EngineDesignSeveral alternativesThis shape chosen based on evaluation of all aspects (multi-disciplinary; ecology, recreation (e.g. island not as good for recreation) )Lagoon area on north side: hopefully Nursery for fish and shellfish, attracting birds and sea mammalsVolume of O (20x) the annual nourishment volume added on this coastal cell over the last decade, so peninsula will last hopefully 20 years
Predictions evolution of the peninsula made prior to the project.Long term Delft 3D simulations
the nourishment starts to ‘feed’ the coastline. In other words, nature will start to ‘work’!
After these predictions the project went further.. And was constructedConstructed Beginning 2011March – July (Only 4 months!)Immediate response in morphology, currents
October 2011 3 months afterClosing of lagoon entrance
Jan 2012, 6 months after3 months later the lagoon entrance has pinched of and is connected by a long gully (with low tide)All images in this sequence with low tide
Juli 2012 1 year afterLagoon opening very dynamic, with meandering gullies. With closing, bypassing of gullies.Note also the boomerang shaped shore connected bar near the tip of the peninsula
Juli 20132 years afterLagoon entrance area futher evolved with meandering gullyNice smooth outline, sand is redistributing
This evolution also recorded in reg bathymetric surveys:Spit formation in more detail.Yellow/brown supratidal beach(dry)Blueish subtidalGreenish colors intratidal beach