Presentation at the National Institute for Coastal and Harbor Infrastructure, Business Summit, May 7, 2014; New York Academy of Sciences.

1. CONFIDENTIAL
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NICHI
May 7, 2014

2. CONFIDENTIAL
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Agenda
Risks of Climate Change
PlaNYC: A Stronger, More Resilient New York

3. CONFIDENTIAL
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By the 2050s:
4oF to 6oF increase in average temperature
4% to 11% increase in average annual precipitation
Sea levels likely to rise 1-­‐2 feet; maybe 2.5 feet
The Risks of Climate Change
NYC already faces a range of risks from extreme weather and climate change, and
those risks grow into the 2020s, 2050s, and beyond.
By the 2050s:
Even today:
100-­‐year floodplain expanded 51%; 2.3 ft. average increase in
100-­‐year flood elevations; will increase with further sea level rise;
now encompasses 68,000 structures
Sea levels likely to rise 2-­‐4 feet; maybe 6 feet by the end of the century

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Flood Insurance Rate Maps
are a regulatory product used to define
current flood risks for insurance purposes and establish building code standards.
Key functions:
Define current flood risk
(coastal and riverine)
Determine flood insurance
requirements
Inform building code
standards
were issued in 1983 and never
significantly updated.

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FEMA 1983 Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs)
FEMA 1983 FIRMs 100-­‐year Floodplain
Source: FEMA
Flood Insurance Rate Maps
flooding.
100-­‐year Floodplain*
1983
FIRMs
Residents 218,000
Jobs 214,000
Buildings 36,000
1-­‐4 Family 26,000
Floor Area
(Sq Ft.)
377M

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FEMA 1983 FIRMs 100-­‐year Floodplain
Sandy Inundation Area (outside the 100-­‐year Floodplain)
Source: FEMA (MOTF 11/6 Hindcast surge extent)
Damage outside 1983 100-­‐year
floodplain:
> 1/3 of red-­‐ and yellow-­‐
tagged buildings
~ 1/2 of impacted residential
units
> 1/2 of impacted buildings
Flood Insurance Rate Maps
Sandy demonstrated that New York was more vulnerable than previously thought.
FEMA 1983 FIRMs vs. Sandy Inundation Area

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Source: FEMA
100-­‐year Floodplain*
1983
FIRMs
2013
PFIRMs
Change
(%)
Residents 218,000 398,000 82%
Jobs 214,000 271,000 27%
Buildings 36,000 68,000 89%
1-­‐4 Family 26,000 53,000 104%
Floor Area
(Sq Ft.)
377M 534M 42%
FEMA 2013 Preliminary FIRMs 100-­‐year Floodplain
FEMA 1983 FIRMs 100-­‐year Floodplain
* Numbers are rounded for clarity
Flood Insurance Rate Maps
The most recent maps, called Preliminary FIRMs, were released in December 2013 and
show a floodplain that is 51% larger than previously.
FEMA 1983 FIRMs vs. Preliminary FIRMs

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Source: FEMA
FEMA 2013 Preliminary FIRMs 100-­‐year Floodplain
Projected 2020s 100-­‐year Floodplain
Projected 2050s 100-­‐year Floodplain
Source: FEMA; CUNY Institute for Sustainable Cities
* Numbers are rounded for clarity
Flood Insurance Rate Maps
even further by
the 2020s and into the 2050s.
Projected floodplain for the 2020s and 2050s
100-­‐year Floodplain*
2013
PFIRMs
2050s
Projected
Change
(%)
Residents 398,000 801,000 82%
Jobs 271,000 430,000 27%
Buildings 68,000 114,000 89%
1-­‐4 Family 53,000 84,000 104%
Floor Area
(Sq Ft.)
534M 855M 42%

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Historic Battery Tide Chart
Flood Insurance Rate Maps
These sea level rise projections are in addition to the 1 ft. of sea level rise seen in NYC
since 1900
Source: Data are from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)

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Change in BFE from 1983 FIRMs to
2013 Preliminary FIRM
Mean elevation
increase (feet)
Borough
Brooklyn 2.5
Bronx -­‐0.1
Manhattan 1.5
Queens 2.4
Staten Island 3.1
Citywide 2.3
Properties built to code between 1983 and 2014 will likely no longer meet elevation
requirements and premiums will increase again.
Source: RAND Table 4.6
Flood Insurance Rate Maps
Preliminary FIRMs also show flood elevations increasing 1-­‐4 feet across the city.

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Likelihood of Damage (%) (Return Period, 50 = 1/50 years)
Loss Frequency Relating to Wind and Surge, 2013 vs. 2020s vs. 2050s
Based on conservative
assumptions:
Likelihood of a $19B
storm (like Sandy) will
grow 17% by the 2020s
and 40% by the 2050s
Likely loss of 1/70-­‐year
storm (like Sandy) will
grow to $35B by the
2020s and $90B by the
2050s (in current dollars)
~$90B
~$35B
~$19B
1/50 1/60 1/70
Risks of Climate Change
Working with Swiss Re, the City quantified the potential monetary impacts resulting
from an increased frequency in damaging storms as a result of climate change.

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Agenda
Risks of Climate Change
PlaNYC: A Stronger, More Resilient New York

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A Stronger, More Resilient New York
-­‐layered
approach that is ambitious, achievable, and based on the best available science.
257 initiatives to reduce the risk of extreme
weather and climate change.
Includes funding, and an implementation
schedule, and can be achieved over the next ten
years.

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A Stronger, More Resilient New York
And, while this is necessarily a long-­‐term plan, the City has already taken steps, with many
partners, to advance many of its key initiatives, including these highlights:
Strengthening Coastal
Defenses
Upgrading Buildings
Protecting Critical
Infrastructure and Services
Making Neighborhoods Safer and
More Vibrant
21
43

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20.7
11.9
8.8
2.4
6.4
Unmet
Need
Existing
Sources
Total
Uses
Remaining
Gap
Expected
Sources
Last Updated: 4/9/2014
Funding
City has a current expected funding gap of approximately $6.4 billion.
The City is awaiting
allocation of State HMGP
funds, 3rd CDBG tranche,
and investments by NY
Rising, among others.
Significant elements of the gap:
Coastal Protection $1.8 B
Building Upgrades $1.1 B
Infrastructure $1.4 B

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nyc.gov/resiliency