The U.S. economy continues to improve, albeit at a moderate pace. Monetary stimulus appears to be prevailing over the fiscal drag from higher tax rates that took effect in March 2013. Although the final revision to 1Q growth showed a disappointing 1.8% gain in GDP, employment gains averaged 196 thousand per month for the second quarter; with the unemployment rate holding steady at 7.6%. Learn more at: www.nafcu,org/nifcus
Second Quarter 2013 NIFCU$ Market Commentary (Article)
1. The U.S. economy continues to improve, albeit at a moderate pace. Monetary stimulus appears to
be prevailing over the fiscal drag from higher tax rates that took effect in March 2013. Although the
final revision to 1Q growth showed a disappointing 1.8% gain in GDP, employment gains
averaged 196 thousand per month for the second quarter; with the unemployment rate holding
steady at 7.6%. A somewhat disturbing development in the June report was that temporary
employment rose to a 13 year high. This may or may not be related to the Obama administration’s
recent decision to delay until January 2015 the implementation of the health care mandate for
companies with 50 or more employees.
The housing market continues to strengthen, with rising prices in many regions boosting property
tax receipts for municipalities. Mortgage rates have also been moving up slightly, perhaps
motivating some potential buyers to make a commitment sooner rather than later. Consumer pent
up demand continues to drive sales, both durables and non-durables. One example of this
strength was the June report for vehicle sales showing an increase to a 6 year high of 15.9m.
However, signs are that 2Q GDP could be slightly weaker than the first three months of 2013.
Market yields for Treasury bonds in the two to thirty year area of the curve rose in the quarter past,
due to hints from the Federal Reserve Chairman that the $85 billion monthly purchases of U.S.
Treasury and mortgage securities could be scaled back later in the year. Despite subsequent
attempts at damage control by several Federal Reserve Governors, market psychology has
turned.
Short-term yields remain low; a situation we do not anticipate changing materially this year.
Toward the end of the quarter U.S. Treasury issues and overnight repurchase agreements traded
at or near zero.
New rules that govern the investment operations of short term investment funds (such as
NIFCU$), which are regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), took effect
July 1, 2013. Materially these changes have the impact of conforming this regulation more closely
to that currently in effect for SEC regulated (Rule 2a-7 of the Investment Company Act of 1940)
money market funds. As NIFCU$ is already in compliance, this will require no significant change
to our strategy for managing the Fund.
Hillary Elder
Team Leader
NIFCU$ 350 California Street, 6th Floor San Francisco, CA 94104
Toll-Free (800) 634-6521 www.nifcus.com
Market Commentary
Second Quarter 2013