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Demography presentation
- 1. Demography and Population of Pakistan Roll no. 117
- 2. Outline: • Concept, demographic principles and demographic processes • Census, definition, methodology, types. • Determinants of fertility, mortality • Population pyramid, and its interpretation. • Demographic transition, demographic trap and its public health importance. • Demographic and social implication of high population growth. • Social mobilization • Urbanization
- 3. Demography • It is the scientific study of human population. • Is the statistical study of human population with regard to their size & structure , their composition by age, sex, marital status & ethnic origin & the changes to these population like changes in their birth rate ,death rate & migration.
- 4. It focuses its attention on three readily observable human phenomena:
- 5. Types of Demography • Static Demography: It means the study of anatomy or structure of community and their environment in the given population. • Dynamic Demography: It deals with physiology or function of communities as regards changing pattern of mortality, fertility and migration.
- 6. It deals with 5 “DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES” namely:
- 7. Demographics of Pakistan • The current population of Pakistan is 217,375,260 • Pakistan population is equivalent to 2.81% of the total world population and this makes it the world's sixth-most-populous country, just behind Indonesia and Brazil.
- 8. • Birth rate = 21.9 births/1,000 population It is the total number of live births per thousand mid-year population • Death rate = 6.3 deaths/1,000 population (2017) It is the total number of deaths of any cause per thousand mid year population. • Net migration rate = 1.3 migrants / 1000 population
- 9. • Population Growth Rate = 1.43% (2017) Growth Rate = Total births – Total deaths in a year at a place . Mid year pop. of same place GR of Pakistan: 16/1000 population • Urbanization: urban population: 39.7% of total population (2017) rate of urbanization: 2.77% annual rate of change (2015-20 est.)
- 10. • Infant mortality rate: 52.1 deaths/1,000 live births • Fertility rate: 2.68 children born/woman (2017) • Maternal Mortality Rate: 178 deaths/100,000 live births (2015 )
- 12. Sources of Demographic Statistics • Census • National Survey • Registration of vital events • Demographic Studies
- 13. Population Dynamics There are four ways in which the number of people in an area can change during two time periods t0 & t1 Pt1 = Pto + (B – D) + (IM – OM) B = number of live births to mothers in the area D = number of residents died IM = number of persons moving into the area for permanent residence OM = number of persons moving out of the area to live elsewhere Thus the population of an area may change due to natural reasons (B – D) known as natural increase or due to migration (IM – OM) known as net- migration. Subsequently: Population Growth=Natural Increase+Net Migration
- 14. Population Pyramid • It is a graphical representation of population of an area or a country in terms of its composition by age and sex at a point in time. • A population pyramid is two back-to-back bar graphs, one showing the number of males and one showing females in a particular population in five-year age groups (also called cohorts)
- 16. Types of Population Pyramids
- 19. Social Mobilization Social mobilization is the process of bringing together all societal and personal influences to raise awareness of and demand for health care, assist in the delivery of resources and services, and cultivate sustainable individual and community involvement. In order to employ social mobilization, members of institutions, community partners and organizations, and others collaborate to reach specific groups of people for intentional dialogue.
- 20. How can we achieve social mobilization? • Government • Civil society • Media (including social media) • Organizations of the UN system • Community leaders • Research and academic institutions
Notas do Editor
- Demography Vital Statistics Scientific study of human pop Basic science for collection, analysis & interpretation of data Consists of changes in pop, composition & distribution of pop Related to health info about vital events such as birth, death, marriage, divorce Demographic processes (fert, mort, migration etc) Defines the nature & extent of disease in community. Useful in planning n research
- Static aspects include characteristics at a point in time such as composition by: – Age – Sex – Race – Marital status – Economic characteristics Dynamic: aspects that are constantly changing.
- Components of population growth or the factors influencing pop growth; fertility mortality and migration being very important. Mortality means death. There were multiple reasons for high mortality in the past, like poor sanitation, food shortages, war, epidemic diseases. Causes of decrease in mortality: improved health conditions, discovery of antibiotics, industrialization, transportation etc Social Mobility: the movement of individuals, families, households, or other categories of people within or between social strata in a society. It is a change in social status relative to one's current social location within a given society. Fertility is defined as the ability of a man or woman to cause conception of a child. Determinants of Fertility: Age of marriage, duration of marriage, spacing of children, education, economic status, religion, family planning and other social, physical and cultural values
- Most populous being China, then india, US, Indonesia, then Brazil and then Pakistan then Nigeria
- People tend to move rapidly from rural areas to urban areas to seek better job opportunities, health facilities or better lifestyle in general
- Other demographic details include languages spoken, ethnicities present, male to female ratio, age groups, literacy rate, life expectancy etc
- Pt1 is future population and Pt0 is present population
- Children form the base of the pyramid while elderly form the tip Uses: male to female ratio Population changes Dependency ratio can be calculated
- Interpretation of a population pyramid: Country/region, Time period 2019 in this case Age groups: Dependents are children and elderly i.e. under 15 and above 65, Working age is 16-64 years of age. Dependency ratio is children+elderly / working age x100 It means that the working population (labor force) in Pakistan must provide goods for itself and cover expenditure on children and aged persons. Pakistan’s DR: it reached a maximum of 85% in 1991 and is currently 65.7% as of 2016
- Triangular: broad based (most developing countries), Pakistan; big base means rapid growth, small base means slow growth Bee-hive (broad centered): large working population e.g. Singapore Rectangular (stationary) : UK Shapes controlled by birth, death and migration Importance of population pyramid: policy planning: future housing, schools, jobs etc Comparison with other countries: developing vs developed
- A cycle of five stages through which a nation passes during transition. 1st (high stationary): characterized by high birth rate and high death rate which cancel each other and pop remains stationary. 2nd: Death rate begins to decline but crude birth rate remains same. South Asia and Africa (improved living conditions) 3rd: Death rate declines still but birth rate also begins to fall. Population continues to grow. 4th: Low stationary: Low birth and low death rate. Zero population growth. Countries where this has been recorded: sweden, australia, UK, denmark and Belgium 5th: Births < Death. Growth rate comes down (Germany)
- Moving from the stage of high BR and high DR to a low BR and low DR is called demographic transition. First stage: high fertility and high mortality is called OLD BALANCE NEW BALANCE: represents the improved conditions, low fertility and mortality The sooner a country shifts from old to new balance, the better it is for the people and their environment and resources. The portion in between these two is the stage of IMBALANCE. Helpful for under populated nations, for developing countries like Pk, leads to economic, political and social chaos. This stage of high fertility and low mortality is also described as demographic trap. This is where the social implications of high population are most visible. The existence of this "trap" is controversial. Some demographers see it as only a temporary problem, which can be eliminated with better education and better family planning. While others consider the "trap" more of a longer-term symptom of the failure to educate children and provide safety nets against poverty, resulting in more families seeing children as a form of "securing incomes" for the future. Nonetheless, many social scientists agree that family planning should be an important part of public health and economic development.
- Catering the problems and all of population that we know. Engaging different parts of the society to work together.
- Strategic alliances are formed to advance the Sustainable Developmental Goals. End: governments must ensure that community-centred approaches are always equally included alongside top-down interventions, and societies must empower their citizens. We are by no means starting from scratch. The SDGs are a major opportunity to bring together and build upon the range of experiences and successes that have already accured. Each of us has to make personal changes to bring about any difference in the long term. Otherwise we will stay overpopulated, we will drain our resources, and we will suffer.