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Two Views of Money

Implications for Fiscal & Monetary
               Policy
Exogenous vs. Endogenous Money
• Recap:
  – Orthodox (exogenous): Money is a commodity
    (e.g. gold, silver). It functions as medium of
    exchange. Agents not fooled by it; they respond
    only to changes in relative values of real goods -
    Money is neutral
  – Money enters the economy from without –
    imagine Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke flying around
    in a little helicopter making it rain cash!
Exogenous vs. Endogenous Money
• Recap:
  – Heterodox (endogenous): money is no object –
    not a physical commodity w/ intrinsic value.
    Money cannot be neutral – in a monetary
    production economy (M – C – M’)

  – Keynes: “The possession of actual money lulls our
    disquietude; and the premium we require to make
    us part with money is a measure of the degree of
    our disquietude.” (GT, 1936)
Endogenous Money
• Money enters the economy as a result of the
  need to finance real economic activity.
  – M – C … P … C’ – M’
     • Production takes place before sale, which must be
       financed either internally or externally. For the
       economy as a whole this must be external.
     • Thus, loans are required to finance productive activity,
       which are then retired once the business enterprise
       realizes the increase in value through sales.
     • Horizontal Money Creation: Loans -> Deposits
Endogenous Money
• Vertical Money Creation Process:
  – Government spending: The state’s liabilities are the
    money of account; high powered money; show up as
    net financial assets
  – Gov. Spending creates money; gov. taxation destroys
    it.
  – If G > T, then deficits accumulate to stocks of
    outstanding G liabilities – i.e. the national debt.
  – If G < T, then surpluses subtract from the stock of
    outstanding G liabilities – i.e. paying down the
    national debt.
  – More on this later
Monetary Policy (Exogenous Story)
                             r   Ms




Equation of Exchange:


MV = PQ
     Causality

                        r*             MD




                                      MQ
Monetary Policy (Endogenous Story)
 The CB cannot control
 the money supply      r

 But, it can control the
 interest rate (fed
 funds rate).




Equation of Exchange:                  Ms
                        r*

MV = PQ
                                       MD
      Causality



                                      MQ
Fiscal Policy
• In order to get fiscal policy right, we need to understand
  how our monetary system works.
• Being wrong can have disastrous consequences on the
  economy
   – i.e. Volcker Recession of 1981
       • Quantity targets failed which caused the interest to rate to rise to
         really high levels.
       • Erroneously believed the inflation is related to the quantity of money
         in circulation
       • Caused a recession – probably responsible for starting the decline of
         American manufacturing (along with trade policy).
• Exogenous story leads to belief that G can run out of
  money. Leads to fears of rising interest rates, unsustainable
  debt levels, etc.
Endogenous Money & Stock-Flow
            Accounting
• In order to formulate good macro policy, we
  need to begin with good accounting:
• Flows accumulate to stocks
   – Deficits are flows; debts are stocks
   – Surpluses are flows; savings are stocks
• One’s financial asset is another’s financial
  liability: An IOU (liability) generates a flow of
  income to the holder of the IOU (asset)
Endogenous Money & Stock-Flow
            Accounting
• There are three broad sectors to the economy:

  Domestic Private Sector Balance + Domestic Government Balance + Foreign Balance = 0




  Over any given period, each sector will either run a surplus, a deficit, or a balanced budget.
  And they must sum to zero. This true by extension of the accounting principle that one’s
  financial asset is another’s financial liability.

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Two views of money

  • 1. Two Views of Money Implications for Fiscal & Monetary Policy
  • 2. Exogenous vs. Endogenous Money • Recap: – Orthodox (exogenous): Money is a commodity (e.g. gold, silver). It functions as medium of exchange. Agents not fooled by it; they respond only to changes in relative values of real goods - Money is neutral – Money enters the economy from without – imagine Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke flying around in a little helicopter making it rain cash!
  • 3. Exogenous vs. Endogenous Money • Recap: – Heterodox (endogenous): money is no object – not a physical commodity w/ intrinsic value. Money cannot be neutral – in a monetary production economy (M – C – M’) – Keynes: “The possession of actual money lulls our disquietude; and the premium we require to make us part with money is a measure of the degree of our disquietude.” (GT, 1936)
  • 4. Endogenous Money • Money enters the economy as a result of the need to finance real economic activity. – M – C … P … C’ – M’ • Production takes place before sale, which must be financed either internally or externally. For the economy as a whole this must be external. • Thus, loans are required to finance productive activity, which are then retired once the business enterprise realizes the increase in value through sales. • Horizontal Money Creation: Loans -> Deposits
  • 5. Endogenous Money • Vertical Money Creation Process: – Government spending: The state’s liabilities are the money of account; high powered money; show up as net financial assets – Gov. Spending creates money; gov. taxation destroys it. – If G > T, then deficits accumulate to stocks of outstanding G liabilities – i.e. the national debt. – If G < T, then surpluses subtract from the stock of outstanding G liabilities – i.e. paying down the national debt. – More on this later
  • 6. Monetary Policy (Exogenous Story) r Ms Equation of Exchange: MV = PQ Causality r* MD MQ
  • 7. Monetary Policy (Endogenous Story) The CB cannot control the money supply r But, it can control the interest rate (fed funds rate). Equation of Exchange: Ms r* MV = PQ MD Causality MQ
  • 8. Fiscal Policy • In order to get fiscal policy right, we need to understand how our monetary system works. • Being wrong can have disastrous consequences on the economy – i.e. Volcker Recession of 1981 • Quantity targets failed which caused the interest to rate to rise to really high levels. • Erroneously believed the inflation is related to the quantity of money in circulation • Caused a recession – probably responsible for starting the decline of American manufacturing (along with trade policy). • Exogenous story leads to belief that G can run out of money. Leads to fears of rising interest rates, unsustainable debt levels, etc.
  • 9. Endogenous Money & Stock-Flow Accounting • In order to formulate good macro policy, we need to begin with good accounting: • Flows accumulate to stocks – Deficits are flows; debts are stocks – Surpluses are flows; savings are stocks • One’s financial asset is another’s financial liability: An IOU (liability) generates a flow of income to the holder of the IOU (asset)
  • 10. Endogenous Money & Stock-Flow Accounting • There are three broad sectors to the economy: Domestic Private Sector Balance + Domestic Government Balance + Foreign Balance = 0 Over any given period, each sector will either run a surplus, a deficit, or a balanced budget. And they must sum to zero. This true by extension of the accounting principle that one’s financial asset is another’s financial liability.