An overview of Northern Ireland's political impasse presented to CIPFA's conference on Innovation in Northern Ireland in October 2017. It identifies diverging levels of resilience between the two most senior Unionist and Nationalist parties in Northern Ireland as a key block to a sustainable restart of powersharing democracy.

1. Triumph of politics over
democracy
(Anyone seen our policies?)

2. So what happened?
• Stormont was built for comfort, not speed
• Not for good government either
• For years all politicians had to work was
soundbites and TV studios
• Not a department
• And NICS grew for 30 years without oversight (a
classic Ivory Tower)

3. Two cultures, two attitudes
to government
• Research suggests there are two cultures
• Performance in government comes second to
Ethno-nationalist identity for Nationalist voters
• Unless it concerns Unionist politicians
• Unionist voters exercise accountability over their
politicians.
• And they punish politicians who screw up

4. Two levels of resilience
• Activist DUP Ministers in Health, Education and
Business
• With the “scandals” to prove it
• Sinn Fein Ministers left most decisions to
departmental processes
• Little negative media, but record of poor delivery
• Results in contrasting levels of “resilience”

5. RHI consumes Northern
Ireland’s democracy

6. After consultation the cap on
payments is removed
RHI established under Arlene
Foster 2011
Public Inquiry pending
Overrun now
£2.2m pa
SF/DUP run on a “Fresh
Start” platform - May 2016
“Fresh Start”
government
effectively falls
Media storm over
£490m figure
Cost issue is first reported to
Minister Jonny Bell - June
2015
Comptroller and Auditor
General Report - June 2016
Whistleblower’s letter
OFMdFM - January 2016
Scheme ended February
2016 (CAG alerted)
DUP and SF agree Assembly
recall at Executive - 14
December
Sinn Fein finally call a Public
Inquiry - 19th January
Hamilton publishes cost
cutting plan - 25 January
Amended scheme proposed
and implemented Sept-Nov
2015
Industry is informed by junior
officials that changes are
impending - June 2015
SPIKE! in Autumn 2015
Assembly collapses in chaos
- 19th December
Martin McGuinness resigns -
10 January 2017
Martin informs the press he’s
withdrawing consent for FM’s
statement - 18 December
Jonny Bell interview with
Stephen Nolan - 15
December
SF refuses to re-nominate a
new dFM - 17 January
SOS James Brokenshire has
no option but to call an
election
Spotlight documentary
highlights CAG report 7th
December
RHI is
under
budget
for most
of 4
years

7. A tale of two elections
• March - Sinn Fein almost win the “Crocodile”
election (“How could anyone hate a language?”)
• Giving the DUP a near death experience…
• June - DUP “luck out” in the UK election (“an
appropriate agreement with the Conservatives”)
• For the third time of asking
• Tables are suddenly turned on Sinn Fein

8. Non accountability in public
office
• Department planning and monitoring largely
absent
• Political gaming can end with Civil Servants
carrying the can
• Data matters. Data compliant stories matter even
more
• But “two cultures” ask serious questions about
the sustainability of local democracy

9. Where the DUP finds
itself
• Performance related voters provide combat
conditions for Ministers
• Promotion of fresh talent and sidelining of old
cultural warriors
• Generated resilience/creativity in government
(key role in delivering Brexit)
• But little common ground upon which to work
power-sharing arrangements

10. Where Sinn Fein finds
itself
• Voter emphasis on identity has allowed SF
escape policy traps
• Ministers regularly abandon their desks for
“government by negotiation”
• Results in low resilience/creativity in government
(zero role in resisting Brexit)
• “Failure of power-sharing” narrative provides
impoverished grounds for re-entry

11. Is there some kinda way
outta here?