These are the slides for the International Journalism Festival's panel that took place in Perugia on 18 aprile 2015. You can see the panel here http://www.journalismfestival.com/programme/2015/young-qualified-and-jobless-how-europes-unemployment-is-defining-the-millennial-generation
with Mariangela Paone, Peggy Corlin, quote from Jon Henley.
Millennials have their rules: they read news on their smartphones, live on social media, move between different countries regularly. Also, most European young people are facing the highest unemployment since the ’70s, while many of those with a job are commonly known as the “working poor”. We still don’t know what the future consequences of this will be. But we can already see that this defining factor is changing a generation’s lifestyle and social habits (as we know them). Shared houses during adulthood, impossibility of getting a mortgage, migration. Owning a car (or not), getting married (or not), having children (or not): all of these things are now rapidly changing. And the EU Youth Guarantee programme seems to be ineffective. This session will consider these issues with journalists from Spain, Greece, UK, France and Italy.
2. Ho lavorato come baby sitter ogni mattina svegliandomi alle 5.30 per essere a lavoro alle 7.00. Staccavo
alle 15.00, tornavo a casa, cibo, studio e alle 18.00 a lezione fino le 21.30. A quel punto tornare a casa e
preparare la cena, doccia, chiamare il mio ragazzo che vive in Sardegna (lui è tornato a casa dei suoi per
poter lavorare riuscendo a mettere qualcosa da parte) o la famiglia e poi a letto. E di nuovo, tutto da capo.
Dopo cinque anni di studi e numerose esperienze lavorative ancora non riesco a farmi pagare per un
servizio fotografico.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
3. “Lo stage è segnalato all’università, quindi credo tu abbia dei crediti”. Ah, sì. I 3 crediti che ho già ottenuto
al primo anno, con un seminario di un’ora a settimana. Insomma, per quei tre crediti che già ho dovrei
recarmi a dieci chilometri da casa, cambiando i programmi della famiglia (perché la patente ce l’ho, ma
l’auto no). E spendere più di 70 euro al mese in abbonamenti per Milano. E, quindi, alla fine, la settimana di
prova resta una prova.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
4. “Io avrei voluto davvero non farli ‘sti 30 giorni di malattia, ho provato a rifiutarli ma per legge sono obbligato
a non andare al lavoro”, spiega. Il fatto, spiega Mario, mentre continua a parlare, è che essendo il suo
primo anno di lavoro in quell’azienda, e conoscendo le dinamiche di quel posto, teme che questo mese di
fermo obbligatorio possa costargli il posto, al rinnovo del contratto fra pochi mesi. “C’è una mole di lavoro
impressionante e io li lascio così… spero davvero che non influisca ma sono un po’ preoccupato“, mi dice.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
5. È come avere una doppia vita. I weekend non esci per lavorare, non hai un giorno libero. Delle volte, dopo 8 ore di
lavoro, torni a casa e ti metti sui libri. Anche in fila al centro per l’impiego mi ero portata da studiare. Alla fine sono quasi
contenta di aver perso il lavoro, perché non mi era mai capitato di poter fare solo la studentessa. Certo… e se fra
qualche mese non riesco a trovare lavoro? E con quanti mesi di ritardo mi versano l’Aspi?
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
6. Mi propongono un contratto full time per il quale avrei percepito quasi lo stesso stipendio del precedente
part time. C’era poco da discutere: avevo bisogno di quel lavoro. Sono tornata a Roma senza un soldo,
avendo perso la stagione estiva fidandomi della promessa di un contratto, senza un lavoro e con un affitto
da pagare. Ora, nove mesi dopo ancora invio curriculum – non so quante centinaia ne ho inviati finora – in
cerca di un lavoro.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
7. World’s “Ticking bomb”
• Commons International Development Committee
(IDC) report: 600 million young people
competing for a predicted 200 million jobs over
the next decade”
• ILO: The challenge of bringing unemployment
back to pre-crisis levels “now appears as
daunting a task as ever”
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
8. • ILO director general, Guy Ryder, said: “More
than 61 million jobs have been lost since the
start of the global crisis in 2008 and our
projections show that unemployment will
continue to rise until the end of the decade
• By 2019, more than 212 million people will be
out of work, up from 201 million now,
according to the ILO’s report, World
Employment and Social Outlook – Trends
2015
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
9. Not EU
• US - The nation is poised to lose $18 billion in
wages over the next decade due to high youth
unemployment, according to a Bloomberg Brief
from Senior Economist Joseph Brusuelas.
Brusuelas estimated that about 1.3 million 16- to
24-year-olds have been unemployed for six
months or more. He came to the $18 billion figure
using earlier research (…) Still, the problem of lost
wages due to unemployment could actually be
much worse, Brusuelas told The Huffington Post.
It isn’t just low-skill jobs that account for the 16.8%
underemployment rate for young college
graduates. (10% YU general)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
10. EU 2007 to 2013
• Between 2007 and 2013, youth unemployment
reached record highs across Europe,
dramatically increasing from 15.7% to 23.4%
according to Eurostat
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
11. EU
• Over 5 million young people (under 25) were unemployed in the EU-28 area in the second
quarter of 2014.
• This represents an unemployment rate of 21.7% (23.2% in the euro area). This is more than
twice as high as the adult unemployment rate (9.0%).
• 7.5 million young Europeans between 15 and 24 are neither in employment, nor in education
or training (NEETs).
• 12% of the 18-24 year old population are early school leavers.
• In the last four years, the overall employment rates for young people fell three times as much
as for adults.
• The gap between the countries with the highest and the lowest jobless rates for young
people is extremely high. There is a gap of nearly 50 percentage points between the EU
country with the lowest rate of youth unemployment (Germany at 7.8% in July 2014) and with
the EU country with the highest rate, Spain (53.8% in July 2014). Spain is followed by
Greece (53.1% in May 2014), Italy (42.9%), Croatia (41.5%), Portugal (35.5%) and Cyprus
(35.1% in June 2014).
(source: EU Commission)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
15. We don’t know
• FMI: "Despite the increasing policy focus on
youth unemployment, there is relatively little
analysis of the nature and drivers of this
phenomenon”.
• UK Parliament: “Measuring young people’s
participation in the labour market is particularly
difficult because of the complex way in which
education and the labour market interact ”
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
16. Stock factor
• "Youth unemployment rates are, on average,
almost three times as sensitive to output growth
as adult unemployment rates. This relationship
holds true in every country, notwithstanding wide
variations in employment dynamics across
countries"
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
17. Flow factor
• "Our analysis confirms that higher labor costs—
that is, a larger tax wedge and/or minimum
wages relative to the median wage—are
associated with higher youth and adult
unemployment rates”
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
18. Duality
• (IMF) “The unequal distribution of unemployment
and its unusual concentration among youth in
some countries in part reflects dysfunctional
labor market institutions, namely the dual
employment protection systems. This is why the
IMF has recommended the reduction of duality
in a number of countries, particularly Italy,
Portugal, and Spain"
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
19. “Statistical tricks”
• IMF: The trends look worrisome, no matter
how youth unemployment is measured. Some
have argued that is merely a statistical artifact
due to the smaller size of the youth labor force
that occurs because younger people dip in
and out of the labor force while pursuing their
education. Indeed, the headline numbers do
vary significantly depending on whether the
incidence of unemployment is measured as a
share of the youth labor force (the
unemployment rate) or total population. And
the NEET rates also paint a worrisome picture.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
20. TEMP
• Flexible type of contracts that have mushroomed
during the recession: part-time and temporary
jobs increased by 4 and 3 percentage points
respectively, bringing the first to 46% and the
second 59% between 2008 and 2012 on average
for the EU. In 2012, the reports stresses, “over half
of hirings across all occupational groups (except
‘legislators and managers’) were on temporary
contracts and even over 70% in ‘elementary
occupations’”.
(European Vacancy and Recruitment Report 2014,
EU Commission)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
21. NEET
• Although we understand the significant issues
which confront many of the young people
characterised as NEET, we find the term
ambiguous and at times unhelpful, because of
the broad scope of young people it
encompasses
(UK Parliament, EU committee)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
23. UNDEREMPLOYMENT
• We note that highly skilled young people who are
‘underemployed’ can create a blockage to entry-level
jobs for other young people.
• We recommend that the UK Government use some of
the European Social Fund to introduce ways of assisting
highly skilled young people to access the labour
market, for example, through improved careers advice
or support for entrepreneurship. This would
complement their use of the majority of government and
EU funding to target those disadvantaged young
people who may be harder-to-reach.
(UK Parliament, EU committee)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
24. Social consequences
• migration of skilled labour
• hysteria effects
• social resistance to reforms
• foster crime
• erode social cohesion and institutions
• lower job expectations and wages
… All of this cause (even) less growth
prospects.
(IMF)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
25.
26. Social consequences
• Birth rate
• Marriages
• House
• Wages
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
27. Birth rate
• Natalità in calo in Europa: Italia, Germania, Grecia e
Portogallo sono i paesi dove si fanno meno bambini (8.5
ogni 1.000 abitanti). Dal 2012 al 2013 l'UE è passata da
una media di 10.4 neonati ogni mille abitanti a 10 ogni
mille. I tassi più elevati in Francia, UK, Svezia,
Lussemburgo (dove hanno leggi su paternità e maternità
e forte welfare con asili, tate, e bonus).
• Ma INSEE (Istituto statistico francese) dice che per la
prima volta dal 2000 il tasso di natalità in Francia è sceso
sotto la soglia di 2 bambini per donna (1,99).
(Eurostat)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
28. Italia
• Nel 2013 sono stati iscritti in anagrafe per
nascita 509.000 bambini, quasi 25mila in meno
rispetto al 2012 (nel 2013 erano 514.000). Dal
2008 ad oggi sono oltre 62mila le nascite in
meno. È il dato più basso dall'unità d'Italia.
(Istat)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
30. Best quote
• "This data makes my fertile friends look like the
demographic equivalent of a two-headed
unicorn"
Eleanor Robertson (Guardian AUS)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
31. Lower wages
• Taking into account wages alone, 22-to-29-year-
olds saw a 12.5% fall between 2009 – the year
before the coalition took office – and 2014. There
were declines for every age group over the five-
year period, but the decline was most muted for
the over-60s, who had a decline of 3.7% in
wages according to the thinktank’s analysis.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
32.
33. Marriages
• Marriage rates have fallen dramatically in
most major European countries over the past
decade, as austerity, generational crisis and
apathy towards the institution deter record
numbers of young people from tying the knot.
France, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Poland and
Portugal - according to national and European
data - Greece, Denmark, Hungary, the
Netherlands and Britain. Marriages have
halved since 1965.
(Guardian)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
34. Italia
• Nel 2013 sono stati celebrati 194.057 matrimoni -
13.081 in meno rispetto al 2012. Negli ultimi 5 anni
la tendenza resta in calo, con circa 53mila nozze
in meno
(Istat)
• Antonio Golini (Istat): “There are also economic
causes because marriage means (…) big and
costs a lot. So in a time of crisis people live
together in an [unmarried] cohabitation."
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
35. • "The lack of stable jobs and absence of credit
have become disincentives to forming a family,"
said Teresa Castro-Martin, professor of research
in the department of population studies at the
CSIC, a government research institute in Spain.
The average age of newlyweds in Spain is now
37.2 years for men – almost 10 years higher than
it was in the 1980s.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
36. House
• Almost half of Europe's young adults are living with their
parents. One of the most comprehensive social surveys
of 28 European countries reveals that the percentage of
people aged 18-30 who were still living with their parents
had risen to 48%, or 36.7 million people, by 2011, in
tandem with levels of deprivation and unemployment
that surged during five years of economic crisis. The
data from EU agency Eurofound (obtained by the
Guardian) shows that few countries are immune and that
the phenomenon is not exclusive to the debt-laden
Mediterranean rim. Rises in the number of stay-at-home
twentysomethings in Sweden, Denmark, France,
Belgium and Austria. In Italy, nearly four-fifths (79%).
(Eurofound)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
37. • Nove mesi e mezzo per vendere una casa,
prezzi sostanzialmente fermi o leggermente in
calo, così come stabili attorno al 16% si
confermano gli 'sconti' che gli acquirenti
riescono a spuntare sul prezzo iniziale di
un'abitazione.
(Banca d’Italia).
• Home ownership rates for 25-year-olds have
halved in two decades.
(UK insititute fiscal studies)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
38. So what?
• One of the Eurofound report's authors, Anna
Ludwinek, said: "The situation of youth has really
fundamentally changed. And it looks different
from the situation of their parents and
grandparents".
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
39.
40. Youth Guarantee
• According to the International Labour
Organisation (ILO), an efficient Youth Guarantee
at a European level would cost €21 billion.
According to the European Foundation for the
Improvement of Living and Working Conditions,
the cost of supporting the 7.5 million young
people aged 15-24 who are not employed,
training or studying, and the loss of their
productivity will cost the EU €150 billion per year.
• Economists have derided the scheme as a public
relations exercise.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
41. • The quality of employment available for young people
has been largely overlooked. The 'any job is a good
job' is turning into a new mantra. Speaking at the
European Parliament on Monday (7 April 2014), the
vice president of the European Youth Forum, Lloyd
Russel-Moyle, said that the youth guaranteed is
is open to abuse, because it doesn't exclude unpaid
internships.
(European Youth Forum)
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
42. RESULTS
• Officials from the European Court of Auditors (ECA)
responsible for screening the flagship Youth
Guarantee initiative have admitted that they have yet
to see a single young person who has found a job
through it. On 24 Mar ECA published its 1st report.
Iliana Ivanova, the ECA member responsible for the
report said: “The court doesn’t know how much of
the €12.7 billion has been used so far. 9 member
states have not provided any information about their
commitments, while the remaining countries have
done so in varying degrees of detail”. The countries
not reported Estonia, Spain, Finland, Ireland,
Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Sweden and the UK.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
43. MORE MONITORING
• Claire Courteille, director of the International Labour
Organisation in Brussels: “YG needs more monitoring”.
• EU Youth Forum: “It is extremely difficult to follow the
implementation process. Furthermore, it is very
disappointing to see the lack of transparency in the
Commission’s monitoring. It is very difficult to access
Member States’ implementation plans. Up until now,
we know from our member organisations across
Europe, that engagement with young people has been
haphazard, superficial and sometimes non-existent”.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
44. Doubt 1
18-25 or 30 years old?
Laszlo Andor: “Spalmare le risorse rischierebbe di
vanificare i risultati, applichiamo il programma alla
fascia d’età al di sotto dei 25 anni e poi, se
funziona, coinvolgiamo eventualmente anche i
trentenni”.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
45. Doubt 2
Long or short term?
• UK Parliament: “This is an important
consideration because it dictates the
appropriate policy solutions. For a short-term
problem, a large injection of funds may be
enough to stimulate the youth labour market,
whereas the resolution for a long-term problem
may require a greater focus on structural
change”.
• FMI: historically high, increasingly long term
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
46. Doubt 3
Are internships and apprenticeships quality
jobs?
UK Parliament: “We are concerned about the
proliferation of schemes being identified as
apprenticeships but whose quality and
applicability to the labour market is questionable.
We believe that it is important to ensure that
internships enable young people to access the
labour market, and are not offered as a substitute
for employment. We therefore endorse the
European Commission’s attempts to create a
common understanding of what constitutes EU”.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
48. A political problem
• Mario Draghi (2012): “The European social
model has already gone when we see the youth
unemployment rates prevailing in some
countries.”
• “The divide between the democratic institutions
in Europe, representatives and political parties
on the one hand, and Europe’s young citizens on
the other hand is growing”
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin
49. • “European elections [in 2014] have shown that
there is still a high level of youth absenteeism,
with only 28% of young people under 25 who
actually voted,” Johanna Nyman, President of
the European Youth Forum.
#ijf15 | @micheleazzu | @mapaone | @peggycorlin