Foresight on the Future of Education be Russian Metaver Group.

1. Education 2030: Mapping the Future Results of the first stage of Russian education foresight

2. Disclaimer : This foresight is neither a forecast nor an action plan . It is a map of highly probable events and emerging trends that may occur in the foreseeable future and that should be taken into consideration in the present . Foresight is built by collective creative work of a large number of experts mapping events of the future . The foresight technology used by our group allows to consider not only linear trends , but also possible qualitative shifts in trends . However, any forecasts beyond next five years are indicative. This foresight report is largely focused on Russia. As the variety of the content and management models of different educational systems is very large , educational systems stand on different stages of development and try to solve different challenges, the application of this report to other countries is limited . However, in respect to technologies that influence education, and to markets that exist in global competition ( university education and education for adults ), conclusions of this foresight are applicable on the global scale . Important note : The list of trends and events in this foresight does not reflect the position of foresight authors and experts about the desirable future !

3. Conventionality of Key Terms We understand that entities such as ‘School’ and ‘University’ are social conventions constantly redefined in terms of age of students, structure and focus. We see these social entities as systemic solutions to ‘existential’ problems that individuals (statistically) may face at a certain age ( Erikson, 1959). In the modern society, these entities and their ‘tasks’ are (roughly) defined as below. In the future, the content and tasks of these entities may change (this foresight provides some suggestions on how this might occur). We decided to keep these names as to social solutions that may become manifested in a variety of forms. Indicative description of entities referred to in this Foresight Entity Typical age of students ‘ Existential’ solutions School 5-17 Socialization, formation of personality, etc. University 17-30 Definition of professional interests and acquisition of professional knowledge & skills, formation of individual social network, etc. Adult education 25-100+ Professional growth, redefinition of professional track, personal growth, support in personal transformation

4. Education 2030: Key results Mass-scale transformation of education within next few years is inevitable. Education will become total , continuous , human-centered , and represented by a variety of forms. Transformation of education is a growth opportunity for the business and economy , and is a tool of influence in the global market . Foresight indicates some of these emerging opportunities . The government and the society can support or block these opportunities.

5. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Stage 1 (2010-13): ‘Hole-plugging’ Stage 2 (2013-17): Demand for pragmatism Stage 3 (2017-2022): Alternatives gaining power Stage 4 (2022-2030): Dismantling of traditional educational models Education 2030: Key results Maximal attention of the professional society and the government to a coming change Maximal number of business opportunities in the emerging sector STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION OF EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

6. Megatrends Technologies Change of the discourse ‘ School’ ‘ University’ Adult education EDUCATION 2030 Formats Business opportunities Policies Education 2030: Structure of the report

7. Education 2030: Legend Everyone’s in the web Stable decline Wikification Major trend Secondary / resulting trend Event / format / solution Event timing

8. MEGATRENDS INFLUENCING EDUCATION

9. Mega-disaster 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 New industrialization ‘ Localness ‘ ( DIY) Revision of the social contract (Russia) Wikification Asia global leadership Asian focus (Russia) New Aged Megatrend Map of Events * Virtual Khalifate * Extended list of Megatrends influencing education: see Appendix 1

10. Megatrend: Revision of the social contract (Russia) Around 2014: culminating conflict between the authoritarian and democratic way of development in Russia Since 2015: ‘ Wikification’ (Russia / global) : spread of various network self-regulation forms in society ( in case of a choice of the democratic way )

11. Megatrends : New industrial wave (Global) By the end of 2010 s : launch of new Kondratieff wave of technologies , rebalance / shake-up of economic order 2010-15: Mega-disaster (global) : a sequence of technological disasters that speeds up switching to new technologies 20 20 -20 3 0: Local-ness (global) : spread of DIY culture ( based on 3D printing and smart technologies ) and decline of traditional industries / corporations

12. Megatrends : Asia global leadership As a consequence of fast urbanization and targeted human capital investment, Asian giants become the largest markets of science and culture : China by the end of 2010 s India by the end of 2020 s 201 5 and onwards : Asian focus (Russia) : switch of Russian business and education to serve the demand of China , India and the region

13. Megatrends : Virtual Khalifate (global) Since early 2010 s : attempts of the revival of World Khalifate project ( Islamic domination on the global scale ) through active use of virtual / network technologies . 20 15 and onwards : Russia may become one of ( possible ) home base territories for World Khalifate leaders

14. Megatrends : New Aged (global) 2010 s and onwards : aging population , growth of the middle class and increase in healthcare services lead to the formation of a large and growing class of socially, physically and mentally active people above 60 Rebalance of demographic pyramid towards adult and aged population : major opportunities in education occur in the adult education market

15. TECHNOLOGIES INFLUENCING EDUCATION

16. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 ICT Everyone’s in the web The point of God Sixth Sense Smart Environment Cogntive technologies Psychic divide HTTP 2 New materials 3 D Manufacturing (DIY) Graphene Revolution Cyberization Technology Map of Events 2 nd Psychodelic Revolution

17. By 2016: due to spread of broadband and wireless access, over 90% of Russian population has web presence Technologies : Everyone’s in the web (Russia) 2018 -20 : Minimal ( free ) access to Internet is provided by the government (Russia) 2018-2020: Mandatory universal personality ID in the web (Russia / global)

18. Technologies : The point of God (global) 2022: Due to the development of digital and mobile technologies all ‘digitalizable’ information ( including cultural heritage and description of technologies ) is stored in the Web and can be accessed from anywhere in the world By 2020: Revolutionary revision of approaches to knowledge management and generation , including science , learning, record and archive management (global)

20. Technologies : Cognitive revolution (global) 2015-20: Widespread cognitive technologies ( technologies of information exchange between human neural system & computer / web + nano- & bio-tech to enhance neural system capabilities ) 2017: ‘Psychic divide’ : divide between users and non-users of cognitive products 2022: HTTP -2 ( Human Thought Transfer Protocol ): protocols of direct information exchange between neural networks through the web 2020: Second psychedelic revolution ( supported by bio - DIY)

21. SCHOOL EDUCATION

22. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Stable decline School Map of Events Cultural divide Psychic divide Culture of independence Digital divide External pressure on schooling system Solutions outside school system Non-educator teachers Mass-scale meta-subject education Model revision

23. School : Stable decline (Russia) Before 2015-17: Degrading quality of teachers ( low-paid & small-time job attracts low quality human capital ) Degrading quality of students : poor health , poor preparation in the family , declining motivation to learn , ‘A Button Empire’ School is demanded by the society largely as a children ‘locker’ In Russia, demographic collapse and collapse of the school system go in parallel, making the decline less visible

24. School : Cultural Divide (global) 2010 s : Increasing gap between digital students and non-digital teachers 2015-20: Psychic divide (see in Technology section) 2022-25: Culture of independence : spread of early socialization formats that help integration in the adult life ( entrepreneurship etc .) Support by expanding DIY culture, available economies of game universes , international certification and national certification transformation

25. School : External pressures upon the System (global) 2013-2020: Growth of education outside the School System and its increased availability through the web 2015-2025: Non-educator teachers (professionals) 2015-2025: Employer demand pushes meta-subject education for the increasingly uncertain environment Government loses its strategic leverage over schooling system , keeping to itself only administration of buildings and funds but not the content.

26. Mapping New Formats for Schools 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 aggregators of private teacher services ( with teacher ranking ) tolerance development programmes strengthening clubs as school alternative ( incl . brand-focused clubs ) technopark schools and corporation-focused schools ‘ game economies’ , youth labor exchanges , students’ work portfolio network-based ‘Pioneer Palaces’ ( science & DIY ) teachers as mentors ‘ school out of school’ 24/7 ‘ global classes’ ‘ remote friend’ , ‘avatar’ and other ICT-solutions for mentoring mobile education with city quests education based on augmented reality and cognitive technologies school as a game space

27. School : the change of discourse 2010 2030 School as a System Teachers teach students Professional educators School as a variety of educational forms Teachers as mentors , ‘teachers’ & ‘students’ learn from each other Professionals as educators Conventional school prepares for life Conventional school is meant for losers

28. UNIVERSITY EDUCATION

29. Global competition for students University Map of Events Stable decline 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Digital divide Support of educational innovations Mobile techologies, individual tracks Transparency of evaluation Employer pressure ‘ Privatization’ Interdisciplinary students Expansion of assessment formats for efficient recruiting Government pressure Innovation as a priority Tolerance Paradigm shift: Digital generation comes in 1 st tier

31. University: Employer pressure (Russia) Since 2010-х: ‘privatization’ of educational systems by corporations due to unsatisfactory quality ( and responsibility ) of prospective recruits 2012 and onwards : expansion of assessment formats for more efficient recruiting 2013: revival of blue collar education in colleges [ likely failure of the reform before 2025] 2015: degree in inter- and trans-disciplinary studies (‘universal problem-solvers’)

34. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Mapping New Formats for Universities technopark format development integration of mobile and online technologies into conventional education средне-специальное образование в бакалавриатах активное присутствие регионов и бизнесов как заказчиков new best practices : Skolkovo University , Olympic University trans-professions personal learning tracks and electronic tutors online thesis defence domination of masterclasses education focuses on ‘ways / methods of thinking’ teachers as mentors practice-oriented education ( startup or career track ) domination of competence-based assessment new universities as entities owned by students ( focused on team creation / maintenance )

35. University: the change of discourse 2010 2030 Students are taught Professors teach University as an entity independent of its students ‘ Students’ use the university space for their self-development in professional and business activities Professionals choose new team members University as an entity ‘owned’ by students

36. ADULT EDUCATION

37. Adult Education Map of the Events In-sourcing of professional education 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CUs as players of the education market ICT companies as leaders in professional education Convergence of consulting and business schools Demand for authenticity Rapid expansion of personal education formats Entrepreneurial education Change of the consumer model: education intrinsic value Growing segments: New Aged, Female Professionals etc. Convergence of business and personal growth education Education as a path to family reintegration Education for life stage crisis solution

38. Adult business education : in-sourcing In 2010s : expansion of corporate universities and dominance of transnational corporations in global education markets 2015: Corporate Universities become active players of the business education market 2018: ICT companies become leaders of the global market of corporate education

39. Adult business education : Convergence Around 2015: start of convergence of business schools, training and advisory companies Growing demand for ‘personal authenticity’ as a presupposition of convergence 2010 s : (Social) entrepreneurship education as business and personal education ‘all in one’ 2015-20: Alliances of market leaders in business education and consulting By 2025-30: convergence of business and personal education

40. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Mapping New Formats for Career-Focused Adult Education business schools : mergers with technological universities growth of entre/intra-preneurship education convergence of business & personal growth adult education corporate universities as global education market players business schools as ‘agents of change’ for the society convergence of business schools, training & advisory companies ICT companies as main providers of solutions in corporate education

41. Adult education : burst of formats in personal growth education Largest segments in 2010-20 s : education meeting needs of working women, parents, New Aged etc. 2015-17: Co-education of different family generations as a way to reintegrated the family 2020: Education as a way to solve personal existential crisis ( ‘middle age’ crisis , ‘aging’ crisis etc .)

42. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Mapping New Formats for Personality-Focused Adult Education ‘ adult kindergarten’ : childness & creativity in adults barcamps & TED-like formats in education (social) entrepreneur-ship education formats for family ( inter-generational ) education ‘ parent portfolio’ , ‘successful parent’ and other formats for birth increase variety of forms for New Aged ‘ the foundation’ ( transfer of elders’ personal history for future family members ) education as a means to solve personal existential crises

43. Adult Education : the change in discourse 2010 2030 Pragmatic education Education as teaching As people get older, their demand for education decreases Education outside the family Education as a way of life Quest for authenticity As people get older, their demand for education increases Family reintegration through education

44. TRANSFORMATION OF EDUCATIONAL SYSTEMS

45. Pre-School Education * Transformation of Education (in Russia) 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Adult Education Universities Schools * Was not considered in details during Education 2030 Foresight . Data of Childhood 2030 Foresight used.

47. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Stages of Systemic Transformation (in Russia) The System is not efficient , its inefficiencies are resolved through non-systemic solutions ( e . g. private tutors, service clubs etc .) and ad hoc solutions Pressures from government & business lead to implementation of ‘pragmatic’ solutions that address needs of the economy & the society better Alternative educational solutions supported by technological solutions become systematically more efficient Decomposition or re-composition of educational systems that would meet the needs of post-information society Stage 1 (2010-13): ‘Hole-plugging’ Stage 2 (2013-17): Demand for pragmatism Stage 3 (2017-2022): Alternatives gaining power Stage 4 (2022-2030): Dismantling of traditional educational models STAGES OF TRANSFORMATION OF EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

48. BUSINESS AND POLICIES

49. Mapping (Some) Business Opportunities 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 New technological solutions for assessment systems Education in social networks Youth clubs built around major brands Educational content libraries with recommended personal learning tracks Models of ‘insurance for education’ Solutions to student health issues Career-guidance as a choice of the life style Franchises on educational methods Educational navigation services Educational systems that use augmented reality Shift from paper textbooks to electronic textbooks Re-skilling for unemployed educators Servicing new global leaders ( Asian economies ) Educational products for the growing New Aged class Datamining & analysis of successful personal educational tracks Stevenson’s Primers ( personal AI-controlled educational systems )

50. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Formats Applicable for Different Types of Educational Solutions Navigation systems for education and personal development Franchises of education services Education systems that use augmented reality Integration of ‘game universes’ and education Game as a dominant form of education Mastering different psychological types ( through games / simulations ) Education in neural-connected groups

51. Mapping Possible Government Policies (in Russia) 2010 2012 2015 2020 ‘ money follows the student’ approach in mandatory and alternative education ( incl . creation of personal education accounts ) (2011-12) liberalization of budget policy choice for educational institutions (2011-12) independent assessment centers : separation of the assessment function from educational insitutions (2014) ICT standards for new education (2015) separation of property administration and education in educational institutions (2014) changes in IP law and personal data law (2014-15) government support to expansion of educational innovators into global education markets (2018) EGE transformation into a system of independent social insitutions (2017-18) mandatory government insurance in education (2018) state support to R&D in cognitive technologies for education (2016-20) changes in pension system : pensions increase proportionally to number and quantity of children (2018-20)

52. Mapping Policies of the Educator Community and the Society (in Russia) 2010 2012 2015 2020 development of alternative solutions for degrading school / university system , development of leaders of new educational institutes (2010-15) development of ICT standards for new educational approaches (2011-14) promotion of the ‘skills of the future’ educational program (2011-20) international cooperation in the ared of educational innovations (2011-20) consolidation of demand for new education through self-organized parent online communities (2010-18) ‘ education attorney’ institution representing student interests in educational institutions (2014-18) creation of the ‘New School’ Foundation to support innovative educ. approaches (2012)

53. Triggers: Key Events in Russia that May Help Switching Scenarios 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2012-15: Transformation of the government ? 2013-15: Changes in the legislation on intellectual property and personal data protection ? 2015-20: Support given to progressive or counter-progressive social groups ? ( re . new educational technologies incl. cognitive technologies ) 2017: Changes in Labor Code – possibility of early intellectual labor ?

54. ‘ Black Swans’ : Unforeseen Events that May Change Everything 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2015-25: Unexpected ICT / bio / nano / cognito technologies 2015-25: Global economic & social crisis due to a new Kondratieff wave 2022-27: Risk of Russia collaps ? 2022-25: Risk of war with China ? 2015-30: ‘Virtual Khalifate’ as an alternative geopolitical project

55. ANNEX 1: MEGATRENDS

56. Relevant megatrends for Russian education Demography : - Aging Russian population - Demographic decline before 2015 - Population grows due to migration from Central Asia and Caucasus republics population into Russian cities - Large Asian countries ( China & India ) become new leaders in science & culture due to the growth of young urban population Ecology & natural resources - Worsened environmental situation in emerging economies , global climate change and other human impacts on natue Society & politics : - ‘Citizen of the world’ : growth of suprastate ( global ) culture - Growth of grassroot democracy , expansion of network communities - Growth of government autocracy couple with growing ineffiency - Youth infantilization - Expansion of global Islam , Virtual Khalifate project Economy : - Globalization as a global competition for production of resources, products & services , Russia’s loss of high-tech production markets - Global competition in the labor market , increased proffessional mobility - Growth of the middle class , variety of consumption as a personal value - Fast change of the set and content of dominant professions - Change of the technological paradigm ( after 2020) incl . growing highly local economy e.g. DIY segment supported by 3 D printing technology

61. List of References 1. The Future of the Family to 2030. A Scoping Report. OECD International Futures Programme, Paris, 2008 2. Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, 2008. Электронная версия : www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_2025_project.html 3. Cohen, Barney (2006) Urbanization in developing countries: Current trends, future projections, and key challenges for sustainability. Technology in Society 28 (2006) 63–80 4. The Evolving Internet. Driving Forces, Uncertainties, and Four Scenarios to 2025. Report prepared by Cisco and GBN, 2010. 5. Global Governance 2025: At a Critical Juncture. National Intelligence Council, Washington, DC, 2010. 6. Kaplan J.L., Pocharski M. (2010) Growth Capitals: Megacity Growth Strategy. Monitor Group Report 7. Trend Compendium 2030. Research by Roland Berger. See : http://www.rolandberger.com/expertise/functional_issues/trend_compendium_2030.html 8. The Future of Foresight. Long Term Strategic Considerations for Promoting the Precautionary Principle. Prepared by the smartMeme Strategy & Training Project for the Science and Environmental Health Network. September 2005 - June 2006. 9. World agriculture: towards 2015/2030. Summary report. FAO, 2002 10. Meadows D., Randers J., Meadows D. (2004) Limits to Growth, The 30‑Year Update. Chelsea Green Publishing Company 11. Changing the Balance of Power: 16 Geopolitical Megatrends Affecting Every Aspect of your Life. OilPrice . Com, 2010 . See : http://oilprice.com/Geo-Politics/International/Changing-the-Balance-of-Power-16-Geopolitical-Megatrends-Affecting-Every-Aspect-of-your-Life.html 12. Naisbitt J. (1988) Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives. Grand Central Publishing 13. Martin J. (2007) The Meaning of the 21st Century: A Vital Blueprint for Ensuring Our Future. Riverhead Trade. 14. 2020 Forecast: Creating the Future of Learning. KnowledgeWorks Foundation. Электронная версия : http://www.futureofed.org/forecast/ 15. Thornburg D. (1997) 2020 Visions for the Future of Education. Электронная версия: http :// www . tcpd . org / Thornburg / Handouts /2020 visions . html 16. Top 12 areas for innovation through 2025. Social Technologies , 2007. Электронная версия: http://www.nanowerk.com/news/newsid%3D3290.php 17. Childhood 2030 Foresight (in Russian) . Seee http://www.moe-pokolenie.ru/402/files/images/Forsait-proekt_-Detstvo-.ppt 18. Science & Technology 2025 Foresight (in Russian) . Russian Nanotechnologies , No. 5-6 , 2009 19. Long-term forecast of Russian Federation science & technology development (in Russian) . See: http://mon.gov.ru/work/nti/dok/str/08.12.18-prog.ntr.pdf 20. Russian ICT Foresight. Moscow , 2007

62. ANNEX 2: FORESIGHT DESIGN PROCESS

63. VIII/ 10 IX/ 10 X/ 10 XI/ 10 XII/ 10 August - October 2010: METAVER conducts the desk study of relevant international foresights and forecasts to establish Foresight presuppositions Rapid Foresight technology is developed October 17-20 : Rapid Foresight session in EduCamp’10 ( over 150 participants ) October-November 2010: METAVER processes results and prepares reports December 3: first presentation in the conference of Intel EduGalaxy December 1 9: METAVER expert session in SKOLKOVO : critical appraisal of the report Foresight Development ( 1 st stage )

64. Foresight Leaders Dmitry Peskov , METAVER ( development of Rapid Foresight technology, Technologies , Formats , Policies, editing ) Ilia Savchuk , METAVER ( development of Rapid Foresight technology, School , Formats ) Pavel Luksha , SKOLKOVO Business School , METAVER ( development of Rapid Foresight technology, Megatrends , Adult Education , Formats , Policies , general editing ) Mikhail Kozharinov SOLING ( University , Formats , Policies , editing ) Elena Kartaeva , PROGRESSOR Group ( Adult Education , Formats )