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SEGMENT FOCUS
Motor Fuels
BUSINESS VALUATION &
FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES
Overview	
Equity Market Overview	 1
Valuations Down, Ranges Hold
Steady for C-Stores Valuations 	 2
Publicly Traded Companies	 4
C-Store Trends	
Margins	6
Government/
Regulatory  Industry Trends	 8
Recent MA Activity	 10
Segment Focus: Motor Fuels	 11
Fuel Pricing  Supply Charts	 13
About Mercer Capital	 16
Q1: Motor Fuels
Q2: Grocery Stores
Q3: Alternative Fuels
	  Transportation
Q4: Foodservices
2017
www.mercercapital.com
VALUE FOCUS
Convenience Stores
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 1
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
During the three months ending December 2016, equity market pricing for the convenience store index decreased by
6.0%, underperforming the Russell 2000 which was up 8.4% for the quarter. The decrease was led by ANCUF (-7.0%)
and MUSA (-13.9%). TA and CASY were both down by less than 1%, and CST remained relatively flat. ANCUF’s market
cap at $26 billion is by far the largest in our group, so its performance carries more weight in the index. ANCUF has had
a flurry of acquisition activity in the recent past and expects to acquire CST in the near future. ANCUF’s stock price pulled
back some due to profits that were lower than expected.
The grocery store index posted a 15.0% increase for the fourth quarter but is down 12.1% year-over-year. Kroger, which
has the largest market capitalization in our grocery index, posted a 16.7% quarterly increase but was down 17.5% for all of
2016. Although Kroger boasts 52 consecutive quarters of sales growth, the retailer operates within a competitive industry
facing food deflation. Kroger’s high leverage remains a concern for investors. Performance within the grocery index was
generally positive with only two participants reporting quarterly stock value declines (VLGEA down 2.7%; SVU down
6.4%).The fast food index posted a quarterly increase of 4.0%, and the index is up 9% year-over-year.
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16
MCM C-Store Index MCM Grocery Index
MCM Food Franchise Index Russell 2000
9/30/15= 100
C-Store, Grocery Store,  QSR Stock Indices
Overview
Equity Market Overview
Data Source: SP Global Market Intelligence / Bloomberg
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 2
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Mid-Point
C-Store EBITDA Valuations // Quarterly Range of Mean Highs  Lows
Data Source: SP Global Market Intelligence
EBITDA multiples were down for c-stores and fast food stores, and relatively flat for grocery operators. The
multiples for c-stores and fast food stores were down by 3.3% and 3.9%, respectively. Multiples for public c-store
operators fell from 10.0x EBITDA at the end of the third quarter of 2016 to 9.6x at the end of the fourth quarter.1
C-store multiples remained above their five-year average (9.0x).
1
	 As measured by the average of : (1) the median of the highest EBITDA measure of all the companies in the Mercer Capital index over the entire quarter and (2) the median of
the lowest EBITDA measures of all the companies in the Mercer Capital index over the entire quarter. Current and historical multiple data was obtained from Capital IQ. In some
prior newsletters, data was sourced from Bloomberg.
Overview
Valuations
Down, Ranges
Hold Steady for
C-Stores
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 3
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
Fast Food (QSR) EBITDA Valuations // Quarterly Range of Mean Highs  Lows
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Mid-Point Data Source: SP Global Market Intelligence
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
Mid-Point
Grocery Store EBITDA Valuations // Quarterly Range of Mean Highs  Lows
Data Source: SP Global Market Intelligence
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 4
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
Revenues EBITDA EBITDA Margins
Price for the LTM
LTM
2017
Est.
2018
Est.
TEV / LTM
EBITDA
Estimated Growth From:
Ticker
Price for
12/30/16 High Low
Equity
Market
Cap
Enterprise
Value
LTM to
Current
Year
Current
Year to
Next Year LTM
2017
Est.
2018
Est.
Convenience Stores
Alimentation Couche Tard Inc ANCUF $45.31 $52.84 $38.50 $25,729.28 $30,551 $33,586 $34,680 $39,126 12.96 -3.2% 13.9% 7.0% 6.6% 6.6%
Casey's General Stores Inc CASY $120.15 $135.97 $98.43 $4,707 $5,595 $7,044 $7,129 $7,657 9.82 -0.9% 3.0% 8.1% 7.9% 7.6%
TravelCenters of America LLC TA $7.16 $12.67 $6.41 $278 $1,024 $5,470 $5,656 $6,501 9.64 13.9% 28.1% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4%
CST Brands Inc CST $48.09 $48.31 $29.64 $3,639 $5,422 $10,980 $9,472 $10,819 10.57 -24.8% 11.1% 4.7% 4.1% 4.0%
Murphy USA Inc MUSA $71.36 $80.44 $51.68 $2,795 $3,473 $11,807 $11,817 $13,548 8.80 11.9% 0.9% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3%
Average C-Stores $7,430 $9,213 $13,777 $13,751 $15,530 10.36 -0.6% 11.4% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8%
Median C-Stores $3,639 $5,422 $10,980 $9,472 $10,819 9.82 -0.9% 11.1% 4.7% 4.1% 4.0%
Grocery Stores
Village Super Market Inc VLGEA $32.01 $33.00 $22.85 $454 $498 $1,603 na na 7.59 na na 4.1% na na
SpartanNash Co SPTN $28.92 $33.72 $17.39 $1,085 $1,577 $7,650 $7,703 $7,788 7.99 16.9% 4.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.1%
Weis Markets Inc WMK $53.00 $55.49 $36.69 $1,426 $1,426 $2,915 na na 8.20 na na 6.0% na na
Ingles Markets Inc IMKTA $39.54 $56.92 $31.49 $801 $1,699 $3,785 $3,790 $3,866 7.11 0.4% 2.9% 6.3% 6.3% 6.4%
Whole Foods Market Inc WFM $28.35 $35.26 $27.54 $9,891 $10,943 $15,666 $15,737 $16,453 8.59 5.1% 1.4% 8.1% 8.5% 8.2%
SUPERVALU Inc SVU $4.99 $7.84 $3.94 $1,322 $3,807 $17,318 $17,588 $17,308 5.38 9.7% -7.1% 4.1% 4.4% 4.2%
Kroger Co/The KR $29.68 $42.34 $29.49 $28,641 $41,061 $112,409 $109,914 $115,218 7.11 -1.6% 4.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.1%
Average Grocery Stores $6,231 $8,716 $23,049 $30,947 $32,127 7.42 6.1% 1.1% 5.2% 5.5% 5.4%
Median Grocery Stores $1,322 $1,699 $7,650 $15,737 $16,453 7.59 5.1% 2.9% 5.1% 5.2% 5.1%
Source: Bloomberg
Publicly Traded Companies
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 5
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
Revenues EBITDA EBITDA Margins
Price for the LTM
LTM
2017
Est.
2018
Est.
TEV / LTM
EBITDA
Estimated Growth From:
Ticker
Price for
12/30/16 High Low
Equity
Market
Cap
Enterprise
Value
LTM to
Current
Year
Current
Year to
Next Year LTM
2017
Est.
2018
Est.
Fast Foods (QSR)
McDonald's Corp MCD $115.36 $129.99 $94.22 $98,437 $124,447 $25,125 $24,439 $22,892 13.69 2.7% 4.0% 36.2% 38.2% 42.4%
Wendy's Co/The WEN $10.80 $11.25 $8.23 $2,844 $5,353 $1,690 $1,417 $1,171 12.13 -10.6% -1.3% 26.1% 27.8% 33.2%
Yum! Brands Inc YUM $90.81 $91.99 $63.88 $36,233 $41,596 $13,005 $13,251 $13,043 14.68 7.2% 3.1% 21.8% 22.9% 24.0%
Dunkin' Brands Group Inc DNKN $52.08 $52.22 $35.73 $4,777 $7,221 $820 $840 $865 19.05 20.0% 5.1% 46.3% 54.1% 55.2%
Panera Bread Co PNRA $194.72 $224.15 $165.17 $4,627 $5,025 $2,740 $2,799 $3,019 13.12 6.3% 10.2% 14.0% 14.5% 14.9%
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc CMG $423.50 $757.00 $384.77 $12,345 $12,345 $4,047 $4,038 $4,730 26.22 -33.4% 96.3% 11.6% 7.8% 13.0%
Jack in the Box Inc JACK $95.94 $102.68 $61.34 $3,134 $4,030 $1,555 $1,599 $1,571 13.25 5.9% 13.2% 19.6% 20.1% 23.2%
Restaurant Brands Interna-
tional Inc QSR $44.58 $49.12 $28.96 $10,420 $22,449 $4,035 $4,146 $4,401 14.23 19.0% 8.1% 39.1% 45.3% 46.1%
Sonic Corp SONC $26.18 $36.08 $22.52 $1,253 $1,855 $619 $616 $562 10.76 0.5% 2.0% 27.8% 28.1% 31.4%
Average Fast Foods $19,341 $24,925 $5,960 $5,905 $5,806 15.23 1.9% 15.6% 26.9% 28.8% 31.5%
Median Fast Foods $4,777 $7,221 $2,740 $2,799 $3,019 13.69 5.9% 5.1% 26.1% 27.8% 31.4%
Source: Bloomberg
Publicly Traded Companies (continued)
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 6
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
According to OPIS, nationwide retail gasoline margins ended the fourth quarter of 2016 at 13.1 cents per gallon,
down from 20.5 cents per gallon twelve weeks earlier, and below the historical five-year average of 19.7 cents.
A year earlier, margins for December 2015 averaged approximately 18 cents per gallon. Between the end of the
fourth quarter and the time of this publication, retail fuel margins have fluctuated but are now 20.0 cents per gallon.
Margins for the first three months of 2017, approximately 19 cents per gallon, are slightly lower than year-to-date
margins from the same time last year. At the time of this publication, crude oil stocks reached an all-time record of
533.1 million barrels, while gasoline inventories have declined approximately 0.7%.
Diesel margins ended the fourth quarter at 17.3 cents per gallon, down from 19.7 cent margins posted 12 weeks
earlier. The chart below presents the relationship between retail gasoline prices and margin.
C-Store Trends
Margins
2
National Association of Convenience Stores 2016 Retail Fuels Report.
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$0.00
$0.05
$0.10
$0.15
$0.20
$0.25
$0.30
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Feb
'16
April
'16
June
'16
Aug
'16
Oct
'16
Dec
'16
Feb
'17
Gasoline Margin Retail PriceSources: NACS, OPIS  EIA
12 Months Ended
December 31, 2016
Following
the End
of Q4
1999 - 2016
Gasoline Price and Spread Per Gallon
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 7
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
C-Store Trends
Margins
Generally, over 70% of a c-store’s sales are motor fuels; however, fuel typically contributes only one-third of total
convenience store gross margin dollars. Despite periodic fluctuations, fuel margins have been relatively consistent
on an annual basis, averaging 20 cents per gallon for 2012 through 2016.
There is a relatively modest delay between the time crude prices increase and the time that pump prices rise.
Similarly, retail price reductions typically lag when wholesale prices drop. Retailers tend to reduce their markups
when costs are escalating. Conversely, when costs are declining, retailers tend to leave their pump prices elevated
– leading to increased fuel margins – until competition forces pump pricing downward.
The time lag between cost changes and retail price adjustments as well as the duration of cost trends are significant
influencers of operator margin. On average, it costs retailers approximately 12 to 16 cents to dispense a gallon of
fuel. Given that the average five-year markup on gasoline was 20 cents, this translates to a typical three to seven
cents per gallon of bottom line profit.
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 8
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
Environmental Regulation
»» 	Pipelines. During Donald Trump’s first weeks in office, the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines
were granted approval to move forward with construction.
»» Appointments. Trump’s appointees to head the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department
of Energy and his appointee for secretary of state are generally viewed to be pro-business, pro-oil,
and anti-regulation.
»» RFS Point of Obligation. There have been calls in recent years to shift the point of obligation to
fuel retailers and distributors. The Trump administration is expected to uphold the point of obligation.
»» 	EPA. The Trump administration’s proposed budget would cut the EPA’s budget by 31%, and recent
congressional efforts indicate a paradigm shift away from environmental regulation.
Tax Reform
Congress spent its first few weeks attempting to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The proposed
replacement to the ACA, the American Health Care Act, was ultimately pulled after it became clear that Republicans
did not have the necessary votes. House Speaker, Paul Ryan, indicates that negotiations remain ongoing, and he
is hopeful that a similar bill will ultimately be passed. It is unclear if tax reform will be achieved without the cost
savings that would have been realized by repealing the ACA.
C-Store Trends
Government/
Regulatory 
Industry Trends
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 9
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
Consumer/Retailer Sentiment
According to the NACS, at the beginning of 2017, 79% of retailers and 60% of American fuel consumers felt optimistic
about the country’s economic near-term economic prospects. The stock market reached record highs toward the end
of 2016 and into early 2017, employment numbers have been positive, and fuel prices are expected to remain low.
Consumer optimism remained high in early 2017.
Swipe Fees
»» SCOTUS Ruling. Visa, Mastercard, and several other banks have historically instituted rules stating
that an ATM operator was not allowed to offer a lower ATM fee for transactions processed by Visa and
Mastercard’s competitors. In late 2016, SCOTUS ruled in favor of consumers regarding these access fees.
»» Legislative Efforts. The new Republican-majority congress is attempting to pass legislation reforming
regulation of the financial services industry. Currently, the details of swipe fee reform are unknown, but
there will likely be large lobbying efforts from advocates of both banks and retailers.
C-Store Trends
Government/
Regulatory 
Industry Trends
(continued)
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 10
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
Recent MA
Activity
The following table summarizes MA activity since the publication of our previous newsletter. In addition to the major
transactions listed, there were several transactions involving 50 or fewer units since our last publication. 2014 and 2015
were busy in terms of MA activity, but activity appeared to slow in 2016.
Acquirer Target # of Stores Locations Comments
Fred's Inc.
Walgreens Boots Alliance
(WBA)
865 Rite Aid stores North America
This $950 million deal represents a divestiture of 865
stores. The sale is expected to assist WBA in gaining
federal approval for its merger with Rite Aid.
Pilot/Flying J Speedway LLC 41 locations Southeastern United States
Through a joint venture with Speedway LLC, Pilot
acquired 41 former Speedway/Wilco locations.
Sealed Bid Potential Buyer Sunoco LP 100+ real estate assets United States
Sunoco plans to sell more than 100 real estate locations
(undeveloped greenfield sites and other non-operating
real estate) in a sealed-bid sale.
Casey’s General Stores is planning to acquire stores to expand
its presence in Ohio.
84 sites currently under
contract
Ohio
Casey’s Indiana distribution center is ideally located to
suit this market.
AW Restaurants plans to develop more c-stores in 2017. 12 locations United States
Over the past five years, AW has opened 15
convenience stores.
GPM Investments LLC
Mountain Empire Oil Co./
Roadrunner Markets
92 convenience stores; 7 quick
service restaurants
Southeastern United States
The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of
2017 and will serve to expand GPM's presence in the
Southeast.
Tesoro Corp Western Refining
Combined company will
operate approximately 3,000
locations
North America The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2017.
Source: Convenience Store Decisions
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 11
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
Motor Fuels
SEGMENT FOCUS Fuels costs make up approximately 4% to 5% of overall consumer spending. It has been consistently proven that price
is the most important factor for consumers in selecting a location to purchase fuel, even when prices sharply decline.
According to NACS, over three-fourths of consumers say that gas prices impact their feelings about the overall economy.
However, changes in gasoline prices have little impact on overall demand for gasoline, and the price of gasoline is not
directly related to the health of the national economy. When fuel prices are low, consumer spending generally increases.
However, low, sustained gasoline prices can signal a weakening economy. Lower gas prices seem to positively impact
inside sales at c-stores as consumers feel justified in “treating themselves” to a higher margin product.
Pump prices have risen modestly since year end 2016, and prices are likely to continue rising in the near-term due to
the impending switch to summer’s required fuel blend and the seasonal increase in driving. Fuel prices tend to peak in
May. Gas prices are expected to remain relatively low throughout 2017 (although higher than in 2016), which bodes well
for overall consumer spending and for in-store, higher margin sales.
The national average price of gasoline has declined annually since 2012. Global crude oil production has outpaced
global economic growth leading to a glut of crude inventories. In an effort to respond, OPEC announced in late
2016 that it would collectively cut production by over one billion barrels per day. Some smaller non-OPEC nations
have followed suit. Gasoline prices have nudged higher in response, but the existing inventories are such that a
meaningful price increase is not anticipated in the near-term. The chart on page 12 presents the expansion of crude
oil inventories from 2012 through 2016.
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 12
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
According to the ShortTerm Energy Outlook (STEO) issued in March 2017 by the
U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), the monthly
average North Sea Brent crude oil price for February 2017 was $55 per barrel, up
from $32 per barrel February 2016. The global benchmark Brent crude is expected
to average $55 per barrel in 2017 and $57 per barrel in 2018, although the EIA
acknowledges a large degree of uncertainty and potential volatility in fuel prices
for the next two years. U.S. crude oil exports reached a record high in February.
The U.S regular gasoline price averaged $2.25 per gallon in 2016. According to
the EIA, retail gasoline prices are expected to average $2.40 per gallon in 2017
and $2.44 per gallon in 2018. GasBuddy predicts an average price of $2.49 for
2017. A number of factors could cause the average to be markedly different than
those estimates: hurricanes, the quantity of oil brought to the market, political
issues, fuel taxes, geopolitical events, and the health of the global economy.
As shown to the left, crude oil prices are contributing 53% to the overall price
of gasoline at the pump. This is up from 38% at the end of 2015. Generally
speaking, less volatility and more balance is anticipated in the global motor
fuels market for 2017.
Motor Fuels
(continued)
SEGMENT FOCUS U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)
Regular Gasoline (February 2017)
Retail Price: $2.30/gallon
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
1,050,000
1,100,000
1,150,000
1,200,000
1,250,000
U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels)
Source: EIA
Data Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov)
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 13
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
Wholesale and Retail Prices
Motor Fuel and Brent Crude Price Fluctuation
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
$5.00
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Price/GallonPrice/Barrel
WTI Brent Gasoline Diesel
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Price
Volatility
Gasoline Brent Diesel
Data Source: Calculated by Mercer Capital from raw data obtained from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov)
Data Source: Calculated by Mercer Capital from raw data obtained from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov)
Fuel Pricing 
Supply Charts
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 14
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
Prime Supplier Sales Volumes
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dec
'15
Jan
'16
Feb
'16
Mar
'16
Apr
'16
May
'16
June
'16
July
'16
Aug
'16
Sept
'16
Oct
'16
Nov
'16
Dec
'16000'sGallons/Day
Regular Mid-Grade Premium Diesel
Data Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov)
Fuel Pricing 
Supply Charts
(continued)
© 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 15
Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017
Fuel Pricing 
Supply Charts
(continued)
Non-Motor Fuel Prices
Percentage Change in Non-Motor Fuel Spread by Month
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
Price/Gallon
No. 2 Heating Oil Propane
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
% +/- in Heating Oil Spread % +/- Inc/Dec in Propane Spread
Data Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov)
Mercer
Capital
Convenience Store
Industry Services
Contact Us
Copyright © 2017 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged.
Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an
information service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list
to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com.
Mercer Capital provides the multi-unit retailing and QSR industries with
corporate valuation, financial reporting, transaction advisory, and related
services.
Industry Segments
Mercer Capital serves the following industry segments:
•	 Motor Fuels
•	 Grocery Stores
•	 Alternative Fuels  Consumer Transportation
•	 Foodservices
Mercer Capital Experience
•	 Family and management succession planning
•	 Buy-side and sell-side transaction advisory assistance
•	 Conflict resolution and litigation support
•	 Trust and estate planning
•	 Buy-sell agreement valuation, design, and funding advisory
Contact a Mercer Capital professional to discuss your needs in confidence.
Eden G. Stanton, CFA
901.270.7250
stantone@mercercapital.com
Timothy R. Lee, ASA
901.322.9740
leet@mercercapital.com
MERCER CAPITAL
Memphis
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Memphis, Tennessee 38137
901.685.2120
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Dallas, Texas 75251
214.468.8400
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www.mercercapital.com
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Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Convenience Store Industry | Q1 2017 | Segment: Motor Fuels

  • 1. SEGMENT FOCUS Motor Fuels BUSINESS VALUATION & FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES Overview Equity Market Overview 1 Valuations Down, Ranges Hold Steady for C-Stores Valuations 2 Publicly Traded Companies 4 C-Store Trends Margins 6 Government/ Regulatory Industry Trends 8 Recent MA Activity 10 Segment Focus: Motor Fuels 11 Fuel Pricing Supply Charts 13 About Mercer Capital 16 Q1: Motor Fuels Q2: Grocery Stores Q3: Alternative Fuels Transportation Q4: Foodservices 2017 www.mercercapital.com VALUE FOCUS Convenience Stores
  • 2. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 1 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 During the three months ending December 2016, equity market pricing for the convenience store index decreased by 6.0%, underperforming the Russell 2000 which was up 8.4% for the quarter. The decrease was led by ANCUF (-7.0%) and MUSA (-13.9%). TA and CASY were both down by less than 1%, and CST remained relatively flat. ANCUF’s market cap at $26 billion is by far the largest in our group, so its performance carries more weight in the index. ANCUF has had a flurry of acquisition activity in the recent past and expects to acquire CST in the near future. ANCUF’s stock price pulled back some due to profits that were lower than expected. The grocery store index posted a 15.0% increase for the fourth quarter but is down 12.1% year-over-year. Kroger, which has the largest market capitalization in our grocery index, posted a 16.7% quarterly increase but was down 17.5% for all of 2016. Although Kroger boasts 52 consecutive quarters of sales growth, the retailer operates within a competitive industry facing food deflation. Kroger’s high leverage remains a concern for investors. Performance within the grocery index was generally positive with only two participants reporting quarterly stock value declines (VLGEA down 2.7%; SVU down 6.4%).The fast food index posted a quarterly increase of 4.0%, and the index is up 9% year-over-year. 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 MCM C-Store Index MCM Grocery Index MCM Food Franchise Index Russell 2000 9/30/15= 100 C-Store, Grocery Store, QSR Stock Indices Overview Equity Market Overview Data Source: SP Global Market Intelligence / Bloomberg
  • 3. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 2 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Mid-Point C-Store EBITDA Valuations // Quarterly Range of Mean Highs Lows Data Source: SP Global Market Intelligence EBITDA multiples were down for c-stores and fast food stores, and relatively flat for grocery operators. The multiples for c-stores and fast food stores were down by 3.3% and 3.9%, respectively. Multiples for public c-store operators fell from 10.0x EBITDA at the end of the third quarter of 2016 to 9.6x at the end of the fourth quarter.1 C-store multiples remained above their five-year average (9.0x). 1 As measured by the average of : (1) the median of the highest EBITDA measure of all the companies in the Mercer Capital index over the entire quarter and (2) the median of the lowest EBITDA measures of all the companies in the Mercer Capital index over the entire quarter. Current and historical multiple data was obtained from Capital IQ. In some prior newsletters, data was sourced from Bloomberg. Overview Valuations Down, Ranges Hold Steady for C-Stores
  • 4. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 3 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 Fast Food (QSR) EBITDA Valuations // Quarterly Range of Mean Highs Lows 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Mid-Point Data Source: SP Global Market Intelligence 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 8 8.5 9 Mid-Point Grocery Store EBITDA Valuations // Quarterly Range of Mean Highs Lows Data Source: SP Global Market Intelligence
  • 5. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 4 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 Revenues EBITDA EBITDA Margins Price for the LTM LTM 2017 Est. 2018 Est. TEV / LTM EBITDA Estimated Growth From: Ticker Price for 12/30/16 High Low Equity Market Cap Enterprise Value LTM to Current Year Current Year to Next Year LTM 2017 Est. 2018 Est. Convenience Stores Alimentation Couche Tard Inc ANCUF $45.31 $52.84 $38.50 $25,729.28 $30,551 $33,586 $34,680 $39,126 12.96 -3.2% 13.9% 7.0% 6.6% 6.6% Casey's General Stores Inc CASY $120.15 $135.97 $98.43 $4,707 $5,595 $7,044 $7,129 $7,657 9.82 -0.9% 3.0% 8.1% 7.9% 7.6% TravelCenters of America LLC TA $7.16 $12.67 $6.41 $278 $1,024 $5,470 $5,656 $6,501 9.64 13.9% 28.1% 1.9% 2.1% 2.4% CST Brands Inc CST $48.09 $48.31 $29.64 $3,639 $5,422 $10,980 $9,472 $10,819 10.57 -24.8% 11.1% 4.7% 4.1% 4.0% Murphy USA Inc MUSA $71.36 $80.44 $51.68 $2,795 $3,473 $11,807 $11,817 $13,548 8.80 11.9% 0.9% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% Average C-Stores $7,430 $9,213 $13,777 $13,751 $15,530 10.36 -0.6% 11.4% 5.0% 4.9% 4.8% Median C-Stores $3,639 $5,422 $10,980 $9,472 $10,819 9.82 -0.9% 11.1% 4.7% 4.1% 4.0% Grocery Stores Village Super Market Inc VLGEA $32.01 $33.00 $22.85 $454 $498 $1,603 na na 7.59 na na 4.1% na na SpartanNash Co SPTN $28.92 $33.72 $17.39 $1,085 $1,577 $7,650 $7,703 $7,788 7.99 16.9% 4.3% 2.6% 3.0% 3.1% Weis Markets Inc WMK $53.00 $55.49 $36.69 $1,426 $1,426 $2,915 na na 8.20 na na 6.0% na na Ingles Markets Inc IMKTA $39.54 $56.92 $31.49 $801 $1,699 $3,785 $3,790 $3,866 7.11 0.4% 2.9% 6.3% 6.3% 6.4% Whole Foods Market Inc WFM $28.35 $35.26 $27.54 $9,891 $10,943 $15,666 $15,737 $16,453 8.59 5.1% 1.4% 8.1% 8.5% 8.2% SUPERVALU Inc SVU $4.99 $7.84 $3.94 $1,322 $3,807 $17,318 $17,588 $17,308 5.38 9.7% -7.1% 4.1% 4.4% 4.2% Kroger Co/The KR $29.68 $42.34 $29.49 $28,641 $41,061 $112,409 $109,914 $115,218 7.11 -1.6% 4.1% 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% Average Grocery Stores $6,231 $8,716 $23,049 $30,947 $32,127 7.42 6.1% 1.1% 5.2% 5.5% 5.4% Median Grocery Stores $1,322 $1,699 $7,650 $15,737 $16,453 7.59 5.1% 2.9% 5.1% 5.2% 5.1% Source: Bloomberg Publicly Traded Companies
  • 6. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 5 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 Revenues EBITDA EBITDA Margins Price for the LTM LTM 2017 Est. 2018 Est. TEV / LTM EBITDA Estimated Growth From: Ticker Price for 12/30/16 High Low Equity Market Cap Enterprise Value LTM to Current Year Current Year to Next Year LTM 2017 Est. 2018 Est. Fast Foods (QSR) McDonald's Corp MCD $115.36 $129.99 $94.22 $98,437 $124,447 $25,125 $24,439 $22,892 13.69 2.7% 4.0% 36.2% 38.2% 42.4% Wendy's Co/The WEN $10.80 $11.25 $8.23 $2,844 $5,353 $1,690 $1,417 $1,171 12.13 -10.6% -1.3% 26.1% 27.8% 33.2% Yum! Brands Inc YUM $90.81 $91.99 $63.88 $36,233 $41,596 $13,005 $13,251 $13,043 14.68 7.2% 3.1% 21.8% 22.9% 24.0% Dunkin' Brands Group Inc DNKN $52.08 $52.22 $35.73 $4,777 $7,221 $820 $840 $865 19.05 20.0% 5.1% 46.3% 54.1% 55.2% Panera Bread Co PNRA $194.72 $224.15 $165.17 $4,627 $5,025 $2,740 $2,799 $3,019 13.12 6.3% 10.2% 14.0% 14.5% 14.9% Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc CMG $423.50 $757.00 $384.77 $12,345 $12,345 $4,047 $4,038 $4,730 26.22 -33.4% 96.3% 11.6% 7.8% 13.0% Jack in the Box Inc JACK $95.94 $102.68 $61.34 $3,134 $4,030 $1,555 $1,599 $1,571 13.25 5.9% 13.2% 19.6% 20.1% 23.2% Restaurant Brands Interna- tional Inc QSR $44.58 $49.12 $28.96 $10,420 $22,449 $4,035 $4,146 $4,401 14.23 19.0% 8.1% 39.1% 45.3% 46.1% Sonic Corp SONC $26.18 $36.08 $22.52 $1,253 $1,855 $619 $616 $562 10.76 0.5% 2.0% 27.8% 28.1% 31.4% Average Fast Foods $19,341 $24,925 $5,960 $5,905 $5,806 15.23 1.9% 15.6% 26.9% 28.8% 31.5% Median Fast Foods $4,777 $7,221 $2,740 $2,799 $3,019 13.69 5.9% 5.1% 26.1% 27.8% 31.4% Source: Bloomberg Publicly Traded Companies (continued)
  • 7. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 6 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 According to OPIS, nationwide retail gasoline margins ended the fourth quarter of 2016 at 13.1 cents per gallon, down from 20.5 cents per gallon twelve weeks earlier, and below the historical five-year average of 19.7 cents. A year earlier, margins for December 2015 averaged approximately 18 cents per gallon. Between the end of the fourth quarter and the time of this publication, retail fuel margins have fluctuated but are now 20.0 cents per gallon. Margins for the first three months of 2017, approximately 19 cents per gallon, are slightly lower than year-to-date margins from the same time last year. At the time of this publication, crude oil stocks reached an all-time record of 533.1 million barrels, while gasoline inventories have declined approximately 0.7%. Diesel margins ended the fourth quarter at 17.3 cents per gallon, down from 19.7 cent margins posted 12 weeks earlier. The chart below presents the relationship between retail gasoline prices and margin. C-Store Trends Margins 2 National Association of Convenience Stores 2016 Retail Fuels Report. $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $0.00 $0.05 $0.10 $0.15 $0.20 $0.25 $0.30 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Feb '16 April '16 June '16 Aug '16 Oct '16 Dec '16 Feb '17 Gasoline Margin Retail PriceSources: NACS, OPIS EIA 12 Months Ended December 31, 2016 Following the End of Q4 1999 - 2016 Gasoline Price and Spread Per Gallon
  • 8. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 7 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 C-Store Trends Margins Generally, over 70% of a c-store’s sales are motor fuels; however, fuel typically contributes only one-third of total convenience store gross margin dollars. Despite periodic fluctuations, fuel margins have been relatively consistent on an annual basis, averaging 20 cents per gallon for 2012 through 2016. There is a relatively modest delay between the time crude prices increase and the time that pump prices rise. Similarly, retail price reductions typically lag when wholesale prices drop. Retailers tend to reduce their markups when costs are escalating. Conversely, when costs are declining, retailers tend to leave their pump prices elevated – leading to increased fuel margins – until competition forces pump pricing downward. The time lag between cost changes and retail price adjustments as well as the duration of cost trends are significant influencers of operator margin. On average, it costs retailers approximately 12 to 16 cents to dispense a gallon of fuel. Given that the average five-year markup on gasoline was 20 cents, this translates to a typical three to seven cents per gallon of bottom line profit.
  • 9. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 8 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 Environmental Regulation »» Pipelines. During Donald Trump’s first weeks in office, the Keystone and Dakota Access Pipelines were granted approval to move forward with construction. »» Appointments. Trump’s appointees to head the Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of Energy and his appointee for secretary of state are generally viewed to be pro-business, pro-oil, and anti-regulation. »» RFS Point of Obligation. There have been calls in recent years to shift the point of obligation to fuel retailers and distributors. The Trump administration is expected to uphold the point of obligation. »» EPA. The Trump administration’s proposed budget would cut the EPA’s budget by 31%, and recent congressional efforts indicate a paradigm shift away from environmental regulation. Tax Reform Congress spent its first few weeks attempting to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The proposed replacement to the ACA, the American Health Care Act, was ultimately pulled after it became clear that Republicans did not have the necessary votes. House Speaker, Paul Ryan, indicates that negotiations remain ongoing, and he is hopeful that a similar bill will ultimately be passed. It is unclear if tax reform will be achieved without the cost savings that would have been realized by repealing the ACA. C-Store Trends Government/ Regulatory Industry Trends
  • 10. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 9 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 Consumer/Retailer Sentiment According to the NACS, at the beginning of 2017, 79% of retailers and 60% of American fuel consumers felt optimistic about the country’s economic near-term economic prospects. The stock market reached record highs toward the end of 2016 and into early 2017, employment numbers have been positive, and fuel prices are expected to remain low. Consumer optimism remained high in early 2017. Swipe Fees »» SCOTUS Ruling. Visa, Mastercard, and several other banks have historically instituted rules stating that an ATM operator was not allowed to offer a lower ATM fee for transactions processed by Visa and Mastercard’s competitors. In late 2016, SCOTUS ruled in favor of consumers regarding these access fees. »» Legislative Efforts. The new Republican-majority congress is attempting to pass legislation reforming regulation of the financial services industry. Currently, the details of swipe fee reform are unknown, but there will likely be large lobbying efforts from advocates of both banks and retailers. C-Store Trends Government/ Regulatory Industry Trends (continued)
  • 11. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 10 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 Recent MA Activity The following table summarizes MA activity since the publication of our previous newsletter. In addition to the major transactions listed, there were several transactions involving 50 or fewer units since our last publication. 2014 and 2015 were busy in terms of MA activity, but activity appeared to slow in 2016. Acquirer Target # of Stores Locations Comments Fred's Inc. Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) 865 Rite Aid stores North America This $950 million deal represents a divestiture of 865 stores. The sale is expected to assist WBA in gaining federal approval for its merger with Rite Aid. Pilot/Flying J Speedway LLC 41 locations Southeastern United States Through a joint venture with Speedway LLC, Pilot acquired 41 former Speedway/Wilco locations. Sealed Bid Potential Buyer Sunoco LP 100+ real estate assets United States Sunoco plans to sell more than 100 real estate locations (undeveloped greenfield sites and other non-operating real estate) in a sealed-bid sale. Casey’s General Stores is planning to acquire stores to expand its presence in Ohio. 84 sites currently under contract Ohio Casey’s Indiana distribution center is ideally located to suit this market. AW Restaurants plans to develop more c-stores in 2017. 12 locations United States Over the past five years, AW has opened 15 convenience stores. GPM Investments LLC Mountain Empire Oil Co./ Roadrunner Markets 92 convenience stores; 7 quick service restaurants Southeastern United States The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2017 and will serve to expand GPM's presence in the Southeast. Tesoro Corp Western Refining Combined company will operate approximately 3,000 locations North America The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2017. Source: Convenience Store Decisions
  • 12. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 11 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 Motor Fuels SEGMENT FOCUS Fuels costs make up approximately 4% to 5% of overall consumer spending. It has been consistently proven that price is the most important factor for consumers in selecting a location to purchase fuel, even when prices sharply decline. According to NACS, over three-fourths of consumers say that gas prices impact their feelings about the overall economy. However, changes in gasoline prices have little impact on overall demand for gasoline, and the price of gasoline is not directly related to the health of the national economy. When fuel prices are low, consumer spending generally increases. However, low, sustained gasoline prices can signal a weakening economy. Lower gas prices seem to positively impact inside sales at c-stores as consumers feel justified in “treating themselves” to a higher margin product. Pump prices have risen modestly since year end 2016, and prices are likely to continue rising in the near-term due to the impending switch to summer’s required fuel blend and the seasonal increase in driving. Fuel prices tend to peak in May. Gas prices are expected to remain relatively low throughout 2017 (although higher than in 2016), which bodes well for overall consumer spending and for in-store, higher margin sales. The national average price of gasoline has declined annually since 2012. Global crude oil production has outpaced global economic growth leading to a glut of crude inventories. In an effort to respond, OPEC announced in late 2016 that it would collectively cut production by over one billion barrels per day. Some smaller non-OPEC nations have followed suit. Gasoline prices have nudged higher in response, but the existing inventories are such that a meaningful price increase is not anticipated in the near-term. The chart on page 12 presents the expansion of crude oil inventories from 2012 through 2016.
  • 13. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 12 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 According to the ShortTerm Energy Outlook (STEO) issued in March 2017 by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA), the monthly average North Sea Brent crude oil price for February 2017 was $55 per barrel, up from $32 per barrel February 2016. The global benchmark Brent crude is expected to average $55 per barrel in 2017 and $57 per barrel in 2018, although the EIA acknowledges a large degree of uncertainty and potential volatility in fuel prices for the next two years. U.S. crude oil exports reached a record high in February. The U.S regular gasoline price averaged $2.25 per gallon in 2016. According to the EIA, retail gasoline prices are expected to average $2.40 per gallon in 2017 and $2.44 per gallon in 2018. GasBuddy predicts an average price of $2.49 for 2017. A number of factors could cause the average to be markedly different than those estimates: hurricanes, the quantity of oil brought to the market, political issues, fuel taxes, geopolitical events, and the health of the global economy. As shown to the left, crude oil prices are contributing 53% to the overall price of gasoline at the pump. This is up from 38% at the end of 2015. Generally speaking, less volatility and more balance is anticipated in the global motor fuels market for 2017. Motor Fuels (continued) SEGMENT FOCUS U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels) Regular Gasoline (February 2017) Retail Price: $2.30/gallon 900,000 950,000 1,000,000 1,050,000 1,100,000 1,150,000 1,200,000 1,250,000 U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil (Thousand Barrels) Source: EIA Data Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov)
  • 14. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 13 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 Wholesale and Retail Prices Motor Fuel and Brent Crude Price Fluctuation $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 $5.00 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 Price/GallonPrice/Barrel WTI Brent Gasoline Diesel -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Price Volatility Gasoline Brent Diesel Data Source: Calculated by Mercer Capital from raw data obtained from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov) Data Source: Calculated by Mercer Capital from raw data obtained from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov) Fuel Pricing Supply Charts
  • 15. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 14 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 Prime Supplier Sales Volumes - 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Dec '15 Jan '16 Feb '16 Mar '16 Apr '16 May '16 June '16 July '16 Aug '16 Sept '16 Oct '16 Nov '16 Dec '16000'sGallons/Day Regular Mid-Grade Premium Diesel Data Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov) Fuel Pricing Supply Charts (continued)
  • 16. © 2017 Mercer Capital // www.mercercapital.com 15 Mercer Capital’s Value Focus: Convenience Stores First Quarter 2017 Fuel Pricing Supply Charts (continued) Non-Motor Fuel Prices Percentage Change in Non-Motor Fuel Spread by Month $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 $4.50 Price/Gallon No. 2 Heating Oil Propane -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% % +/- in Heating Oil Spread % +/- Inc/Dec in Propane Spread Data Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA.gov)
  • 17. Mercer Capital Convenience Store Industry Services Contact Us Copyright © 2017 Mercer Capital Management, Inc. All rights reserved. It is illegal under Federal law to reproduce this publication or any portion of its contents without the publisher’s permission. Media quotations with source attribution are encouraged. Reporters requesting additional information or editorial comment should contact Barbara Walters Price at 901.685.2120. Mercer Capital’s Industry Focus is published quarterly and does not constitute legal or financial consulting advice. It is offered as an information service to our clients and friends. Those interested in specific guidance for legal or accounting matters should seek competent professional advice. Inquiries to discuss specific valuation matters are welcomed. To add your name to our mailing list to receive this complimentary publication, visit our web site at www.mercercapital.com. Mercer Capital provides the multi-unit retailing and QSR industries with corporate valuation, financial reporting, transaction advisory, and related services. Industry Segments Mercer Capital serves the following industry segments: • Motor Fuels • Grocery Stores • Alternative Fuels Consumer Transportation • Foodservices Mercer Capital Experience • Family and management succession planning • Buy-side and sell-side transaction advisory assistance • Conflict resolution and litigation support • Trust and estate planning • Buy-sell agreement valuation, design, and funding advisory Contact a Mercer Capital professional to discuss your needs in confidence. Eden G. Stanton, CFA 901.270.7250 stantone@mercercapital.com Timothy R. Lee, ASA 901.322.9740 leet@mercercapital.com MERCER CAPITAL Memphis 5100 Poplar Avenue, Suite 2600 Memphis, Tennessee 38137 901.685.2120 Dallas 12201 Merit Drive, Suite 480 Dallas, Texas 75251 214.468.8400 Nashville 102 Woodmont Blvd., Suite 231 Nashville, Tennessee 37205 615.345.0350 www.mercercapital.com BUSINESS VALUATION FINANCIAL ADVISORY SERVICES