Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study: Hotspot Identification

1. Mekong ARCC Task 2 Climate change hotspot identification 31 October 2012 ICEM - International Centre for Environmental Management

2. Objectives 1. Identify hot spots in the LMB to provide a scientific evidence base to guide selection of pilot project sites 2. Provide focus for Task 2 impact and vulnerability assessments

3. Approach • Threat analysis approach to identify the most threatened areas at three different levels • Ecozones – important for ecosystems and the basis for up scaling our vulnerability assessments • Provinces – how most data in the region is aggregated so our primary unit of analysis • Catchments – important for fisheries and aquaculture 12 ecozones 88 provinces 104 catchments

4. Climate change threats addressed in Mekong ARCC Change and shift in regular climate Temperature Precipitation Soil water availability Focus on primary threats, Sea level temperature and precipitation, as the entry Change and shift in events points of climate change Droughts into the basin climate Flooding regime Flash flooding Storms

5. Temperature and precipitation modelling results

6. Hotspot identification method % change in seasonal temperature and rainfall for each ecozone/province/catchment Maximum % change in seasonal temperature or rainfall for each ecozone/province/catchment Rank ecozone/province/catchment by maximum % change in seasonal temperature or rainfall Climate change hotspot ecozones/provinces/catchments Hotspot provinces selected for Mekong ARCC climate change impact and vulnerability assessments

7. Change in seasonal temperature and rainfall for each ecozone/province/catchment Percentage change in Wet season Wet season Dry season Dry season average daily average daily average daily average daily Province Country temperature precipitation temperature precipitation Phayao THA 6.98 7.88 6.01 17.14 Ratanak Kiri KHM 13.67 10.19 9.35 1.16 Khammouan LAO 8.09 11.23 6.23 14.28 Gia Lai VNM 15.87 9.89 9.14 3.25

8. Maximum % change in seasonal rainfall or Province Country temperature Phayao THA 17.14 Ratanak Kiri KHM 13.67 Khammouan LAO 14.28 Gia Lai VNM 15.87 Maximum change in seasonal temperature or rainfall for each ecozone/province/catchment

9. Maximum % change in seasonal Rank Province Country rainfall or temperature 1 Phayao THA 17.14 2 Gia Lai VNM 15.87 3 Khammouan LAO 14.28 4 Ratanak Kiri KHM 13.67 Rank ecozone/province/catchment by maximum change in seasonal temperature or rainfall

10. Hotspot ecozones High elevation moist broadleaf forest - 15 1 Dry season (negative change in precipitation Wet season Dry season Annamites 14 Percemtage change in seasonal average daily Lower floodplain, wetland, lake (Pakse 13 Precipitation dominant change 2 to Kratie) 12 Mid floodplain, wetland, lake (VTE to 11 3 Pakse) 10 3 4 5 2 High-elevation moist broadleaf forest - 8 6 4 North Indochina 9 9 9 10 7 1 precipitation 11 4 12 8 5 Low-elevation dry broadleaf forest 8 7 6 Mid-elevation dry broadleaf forest 6 Tonle Sap swamp forest and lower 3 7 5 floodplain 8 Low-mid ele moist broadleaf forest 4 6 Upper floodplain wetland, lake (CS to 3 11 10 1 9 2 VTE) 5 12 2 10 Delta mangroves and coastal wetlands 7 1 11 Delta freshwater wetlands Temperature dominant change 0 12 Delta acidic swamp forest 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Absolute percentage change seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)

11. Hotspot ecozones High elevation moist broadleaf forest - 15 1 Dry season (negative change in precipitation Wet season Dry season Annamites 14 Percemtage change in seasonal average daily Lower floodplain, wetland, lake (Pakse 13 Precipitation dominant change 2 to Kratie) 12 Mid floodplain, wetland, lake (VTE to 11 3 Pakse) 10 3 4 5 2 High-elevation moist broadleaf forest - 8 6 4 North Indochina 9 9 9 10 7 1 precipitation 11 4 12 8 5 Low-elevation dry broadleaf forest 8 7 6 Mid-elevation dry broadleaf forest 6 Tonle Sap swamp forest and lower 3 7 5 floodplain 8 Low-mid ele moist broadleaf forest 4 6 Upper floodplain wetland, lake (CS to 3 11 10 1 9 2 VTE) 5 12 2 10 Delta mangroves and coastal wetlands 7 1 11 Delta freshwater wetlands Temperature dominant change 0 12 Delta acidic swamp forest 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Absolute percentage change seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)

12. Hotspot ecozones

13. Hotspot catchments 18 1 Wet season Dry season 17 3 2 Dry season (negative change in precipitation Percemtage change seasonal average daily precipitation 5 1 Hoaag Hua 16 6 4 7 8 2 Nam Hinboun 15 10 11 12 3 Nam Thon 14 15 14 4 Nam Mae Ing 13 5 Nam Kam 12 13 2 76 6 Huai Ho 11 5 10 11 7 Huai Thuai 8 10 158 8 Huai Bang Haak 13 9 14 8 Huai Bang Sai 12 8 10 Nam Mang Ngai 4 7 11 Huai Bang I 12 Nam Khop 6 13 Se San 5 14 Nam Mae Kok 4 13 15 Huai Muk 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Absolute percentage change in seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)

14. Hotspot catchments 18 1 Wet season Dry season 17 3 2 Dry season (negative change in precipitation Percemtage change seasonal average daily precipitation 5 1 Hoaag Hua 16 6 4 7 8 2 Nam Hinboun 15 10 11 12 3 Nam Thon 14 15 14 4 Nam Mae Ing 13 5 Nam Kam 12 13 2 76 6 Huai Ho 11 5 10 11 7 Huai Thuai 8 10 158 8 Huai Bang Haak 13 9 14 8 Huai Bang Sai 12 8 10 Nam Mang Ngai 4 7 11 Huai Bang I 12 Nam Khop 6 13 Se San 5 14 Nam Mae Kok 4 13 15 Huai Muk 3 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Absolute percentage change in seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)

15. Hotspot catchments

16. Hotspot provinces 18 Wet season Dry season Dry season (negative change in precipitation) 17 1. Phayao 2. Nakhon Phanom 16 3. Chiang Mai Percemtage change seasonal average daily precipitation 15 5. Mukdahan 7. Khammouan 14 9. Chiang Rai 13 12 2. Nakhon Phanom 11 7. Khammouan 5. Mukdahan 6. Lam Dong 10 10. Ratanak Kiri 4. Gia Lai 9 3. Chiang Mai 9. Chiang Rai 8. Kon Tum 8 1. Phayao 7 6 8. Kon Tum 5 4 3 4. Gia Lai 2 6. Lam Dong 1 10. Ratanak Kiri 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Absolute percentage change in seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)

17. Hotspot provinces 18 Wet season Dry season Dry season (negative change in precipitation) 17 1. Phayao 2. Nakhon Phanom 16 3. Chiang Mai Percemtage change seasonal average daily precipitation 15 5. Mukdahan 7. Khammouan 14 9. Chiang Rai 13 12 2. Nakhon Phanom 11 7. Khammouan 5. Mukdahan 6. Lam Dong 10 10. Ratanak Kiri 4. Gia Lai 9 3. Chiang Mai 9. Chiang Rai 8. Kon Tum 8 1. Phayao 7 6 8. Kon Tum 5 4 3 4. Gia Lai 2 6. Lam Dong 1 10. Ratanak Kiri 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Absolute percentage change in seasonal daily average maximum temperature (negative values are blank fill)

18. Hotspot provinces Province Country 1. Phayao THA 2. Nakhon Phanom THA 3. Chiang Mai THA 4. Gia Lai VNM 5. Mukdahan THA 6. Lam Dong VNM 7. Khammouan LAO 8. Kon Tum VNM 9. Chiang Rai THA 10. Ratanak Kiri KHM 11. Mondul Kiri KHM 12. Attapu LAO 13. Binh Phuoc VNM 14. Bokeo LAO 15. Dak Lak VNM

19. Focussing the Task 2 impact and vulnerability assessments Criteria for selecting provinces • High ranking in the province hotspot analysis • Representation of all ecozones • Representation of delta area • Representation of thematic sectors (fisheries, agriculture, livestock, natural systems and socio- economics) • Representation of all countries

20. Hotspot provinces selected for Mekong ARCC climate change impact and vulnerability assessments • Mondul Kiri - KHM • Gia Lai - VN • Chiang Rai - TH • Khammouan – LAO • Ken Giang - VN • Kampong Thom - KHM • Sakon Nakhon - TH • Stung Treng - KHM • Champasak - LAO • Ben Tre - VN • Xe Kong - LAO

22. Summary Scientific evidence base for hotspots Ecozone Province Catchment Hotspot provinces selected for climate change impact and vulnerability assessments

Mekong ARCC Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Study: Hotspot Identification

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