Chinese consumers have grown less optimistic about the economy, likely due to recent outbreaks of the omicron variant.
In China, overall optimism on economic recovery remains high relative to other countries surveyed. However, the share of optimistic consumers has decreased by more than ten percentage points versus October 2021, likely in reaction to recent omicron outbreaks. Omnichannel shopping behavior and adoption of digital activities continue to prevail, and intent to continue these is high. Meanwhile, intent to spend on out-of-home activities has decreased significantly.
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McKinsey Survey: Chinese consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis
1. McKinsey & Company 1
Five emerging consumer themes in March 2022
1 2 5
4
3
Optimism drops
amid flat spending
Optimism decreased 12
percentage points,
likely in reaction to the
outbreak of omicron
Spend is flat with a
decreased intent for
out-of-home categories
Digitization
prevails
Omnichannel is
prevalent in many
categories
Consumers intend to
continue using
alternatives to in-store
shopping
Loyalty shake-up
continues
Roughly half of
consumers report they
will switch product,
brand, or retailer when
faced with stockouts
Almost 90% of
consumers have tried
new shopping
behaviors in the past
three months
Decrease in out-of-
home activities
Consumers tend to
engage less in
out-of-home activities
Intent to spend
decreased for eating
out, out-of-home
entertainment, fitness,
and travel
Negative impact on
spend
Net intent on spending
has decreased
especially for
out-of-home activities
Purchasing of smaller
quantity and switching
to value-for-money
brands have been cited
as main reasons for
decrease in spend
2. McKinsey & Company 2
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-19,1 % of respondents
15 15
21
14
29 32 29
20 29
46
56
51 63
48 47
59
75
68
38
28 27
23 23 21
12
3
5
11
34
55
Mixed: The economy will be
impacted for 6–12 months or
longer and will stagnate or show
slow growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19 will
have lasting impact on the
economy and show regression
or fall into lengthy recession
Optimistic: The economy will
rebound within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before COVID-19
Optimism has decreased since October 2021 but remains higher
than other countries surveyed except India and Indonesia
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Bars may not sum to
100% due to rounding.
Japan
3/16–26
Australia
3/16–25
Korea
3/19–26
US
3/1–25
Change in optimistic vs
last wave survey, percentage points
−12 −6 −10 +15 −2
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 Consumer Pulse Survey
China
3/11–20
Oct 2021
India
3/11–24
+1
Oct 2021 Oct 2021 Oct 2021
Indonesia
3/16–26
+15
Sept 2020 Nov 2020 June 2020
Germany
3/22–28
France
3/23–28
UK
3/22–29
−10 −9 −12
Oct 2021
Oct 2021
Oct 2021
Optimism drops amid flat spending | Current as of March 2022
3. McKinsey & Company 3
Optimism drops amid flat spending | Current as of March 2022
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.” Figures may not sum to
100% because of rounding.
2. Average of weekly pulse surveys shown for Mar–May 2020.
Optimistic: The
economy will rebound
within 2–3 months and
grow just as strong as or
stronger than before
COVID-19
Mixed: The economy will
be impacted for 6–12
months or longer and will
stagnate or show slow
growth thereafter
Pessimistic: COVID-19
will have lasting impact
on the economy and
show regression or fall
into lengthy recession
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n = 1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249;
5/19–5/25/2020, n = 1,285; 5/5–5/11/2020, n = 1,257; 4/15–4/19/2020, n = 1,220; 4/8–4/13/2020, n = 1,216; 4/1–4/6/2020, n = 1,896; 3/25–3/30/2020, n = 1,048; 3/20–2/23/2020, n = 1,225; 2/21–2/24/2020, n = 1,249, sampled and weighted to
match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Optimism about the economy has dropped 12 percentage points
since October 2021
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-19,1 % of respondents
5 3 5 5 4
11
56 47
43 40 43
38
36 37
32
34
43
48
54 55 52
58 61 61
67
55
Mar 20202
1
Feb 2020 Apr 20202 May 20202 Mar 2022
Sept 2020
3
Dec 2020
2
Feb 2021 Oct 2021
1
June 2020
4. McKinsey & Company 4
Medium- and high-income consumers remain more optimistic than
lower income group
Optimism drops amid flat spending | Current as of March 2022
39
64
57
46
59
55
63
70
58
61
83
66
0
70
10
20
60
50
30
40
80
90
Sept 2020
58
Dec 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Mar 2022
55
58
Medium (14,000–30,000
renminbi)
Low (<14,000
renminbi)
High (>30,000
renminbi)
52
43 45 43
40
44
32
37
16
50
40
0
10
20
60
30
70
80
90
40
35
Sept 2020
23
36
Dec 2020
38
Mar 2020
Feb 2021 Oct 2021
28
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”
Optimism by income Pessimism by income
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n= 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020,
n = 1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249; 5/19–5/25/2020, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after
COVID-19 by income level,1 % of respondents
5. McKinsey & Company 5
Younger consumers are less optimistic than older ones; vaccinated
consumers indicate more optimism than unvaccinated
Optimism drops amid flat spending | Current as of March 2022
Confidence in own country’s economic recovery after COVID-191
% of respondents
10 11
34
45
56
44
Vaccinated Unvaccinated
1. Q: What is your overall confidence level surrounding economic conditions after the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Rated from 1 “very optimistic” to 6 “very pessimistic.”
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
16
9 11 8
33
37 32
33
51 54 57 59
Baby boomers2
Gen Z Millennials Gen X
Pessimistic
Optimistic Mixed
By generation By vaccination status
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
6. McKinsey & Company 6
Optimism drops amid flat spending | Current as of March 2022
51
58 58
44
27
27 30
25
22
15 12
31
Baby boomers3
Gen Z Gen X
Millennials
56
44
28
26
16
31
Vaccinated Unvaccinated
55
28
17
Overall
1. Q: When do you expect your routines will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status?
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
After June 2022
By June 2022
Not affected/already returned
By generation By vaccination status2
Almost 60% of
millennials and Gen X
indicate they are not
affected, versus 44%
of baby boomers
~30% of unvaccinated
consumers predict
their routines will not
be back to normal until
after June 2022, about
double the rate for
vaccinated consumers
Key findings
Over 80 percent of consumers predict their routines will be
back to ‘normal’ by June 2022
Expectations on routines returning to ‘normal,’1 % of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
7. McKinsey & Company 7
Over 70 percent of consumers report a stable income and spending,
but greater shares of consumers say income and savings have fallen
Increased slightly/a lot
Reduced slightly/a lot About the same
19
11 11
19
69
60 63
72
11
28 26
9
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
19
9 8
29
61
62 66
66
21
29 26
5
Past 2 weeks
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
27
18 19
13
63
59 59 75
10
23 22
12
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
Past 2 weeks Past 2 weeks
1. Q: How has the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis affected the following over the past 2 weeks? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
Household income Household spending Household savings
Dec 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021
COVID-19 impact on household finances,1 % of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199, sampled and
weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Mar 2022 Dec 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Mar 2022 Dec 2020 Feb 2021 Oct 2021 Mar 2022
Optimism drops amid flat spending | Current as of March 2022
8. McKinsey & Company 8
Overall, 92 percent of consumers in China report their finances are
back to ‘normal’ or were not affected
Optimism drops amid flat spending | Current as of March 2022
95 91 89
94
2 3 5
1
3 5 6 6
Millennials Baby boomers3
Gen Z Gen X
91 94
3 2
5 3
Vaccinated Unvaccinated
92
5
3
Overall
1. Q: When do you expect your personal/household finances will return to normal? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Q: Which best describes your vaccination status?
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
By generation By vaccination status2
Gen Z, baby
boomers, and the
unvaccinated
consumers are
slightly more
optimistic than
consumers overall
on their finances
Expectations on personal/household finances
returning to normal,1 % of respondents
After June 2022 Not affected/already returned
By June 2022
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
9. McKinsey & Company 9
Consumers of all generations have maintained their intent to
‘splurge’ in the coming months
1. Q: With regard to products and services you will spend money on, do you plan to splurge/treat yourself in 2022? For example, are there categories of products or services you have spent less on over the last year and a half which you feel
you will spend more in the next 3 months?
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
3. Small sample size (n < 25).
49 47
51 53
Plan on
splurging
Mar 2022
Oct 2021
Do not plan
on splurging
Millennials
Gen X
Baby boomers2
56%
9
55%
−5
Gen Z 70%3
−30
57%
1
52%
1
46%
11
55%
10
61%
−1
49%
−1
45%
3
47%
5
55%
14
Generation
Respondents who plan/do not plan to ‘splurge’
or ‘treat themselves’ in 20221
% of respondents
Low (<14K
renminbi)
Medium (14K–30K
renminbi)
High
(>30K renminbi)
>70%
<30% 50–70%
30–50% p.p. change from Oct 21
XX
Respondents who plan to splurge, by household income, %
Change < −10 pp
.
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years
old
Optimism drops amid flat spending | Current as of March 2022
10. McKinsey & Company 10
Among consumers intending to splurge, top categories are
fashion and out-of-home activities, such as travel and fitness
Categories where consumers intend to treat themselves1
% of all respondents with intent to splurge
1. Q: You mentioned that you plan to splurge/treat yourself in next 6 months. Which categories do you intend to treat yourself to? Please select all that apply.
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
34
32
28
27
26
23
22
21
20
19
18
17
15
Items for your home
Apparel, shoes, accessories
Pets
Travel, lodging, vacation
Outdoor living
Electronics
Fitness
Restaurants, dining out, bars
Out-of-home entertainment
Household essentials
Personal services
Makeup, skin care products
Sports apparel and equipment
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers2
35 35 37 29
32 35 25 32
31 31 25 22
28 32 19 23
28 22 26 29
26 25 24 15
26 22 10 21
22 22 17 22
17 19 27 23
Generational cut
14 15 25 32
17 18 21 15
15 19 17 20
15 15 12 18
Change from
Oct 2021,
percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65
years old
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
−3
−3
−1
−4
−2
−4
−2
−2
−4
0
−2
−2
−5
Categories
Difference from all respondents,
percentage points
Optimism drops amid flat spending | Current as of March 2022
11. McKinsey & Company 11
Stores are a predominant channel for several categories, but
omnichannel shopping is well established in others
Digitization prevails | Current as of March 2022
1. Q: Which best describes how you have researched the following categories over the last 3 months?
2. Q: Which best described how you have purchased the following categories over the last 3 months?
79
69
59
49
49
44
37
37
37
36
32
30
29
28
26
19
14
14
12
10
9
8
16
31
32
32
44
56
59
55
51
55
53
40
53
43
67
62
73
49
51
78
83
73
5
9
19
7
4
8
12
9
15
30
18
29
7
19
12
37
37
11
8
19
0
Alcoholic beverages
Fitness and wellness
Tobacco products and smoking supplies
Consumer electronics
Home decoration and furniture
Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine
Food takeout/delivery
Kitchen and dining
Apparel
Sports and outdoors equipment and supplies
Accessories
Pet care services
Footwear
Groceries/food for home
Personal-care products
Household supplies
Toys and baby supplies
Jewelry
Skin care and makeup
Home improvement and gardening supplies
0
Pet food and supplies
Books, magazines, newspapers
Research and purchase only in stores Omnichannel Research and purchase only online
Product searches1 and purchases2 by channel
% of respondents who purchased and searched in these categories in the last 3 months
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
12. McKinsey & Company 12
Social media are influential in a few categories, especially among
younger groups
1. Q: Think about the purchases you have made in the following categories over the past 3 months. Were you influenced towards a certain brand by a post on social media in the following categories?.
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
42
42
38
37
37
36
36
35
35
33
32
32
31
30
30
25
24
23
21
21
19
18
Household supplies
Accessories
Home improvement and gardening supplies
Home decoration and furniture
Kitchen and dining
Consumer electronics
Jewelry
Alcoholic beverages
Skin care and makeup
Food takeout/delivery
Groceries/food for home
Apparel
Personal-care products
Toys and baby supplies
Footwear
Vitamins, supplements, and OTC medicine
Sports and outdoors equipment and supplies
Fitness and wellness services
Books, magazines, newspapers
Pet food and supplies
Tobacco products and smoking supplies
Pet care services
Millennials Gen X
Gen Z
Baby
boomers2
Generational cut
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Categories
Categories where respondents were influenced by social media1
% of all respondents
40 49 40
60 45 23 32
38 43 35 31
40 36 36 41
49 50 0 26
45 39 31 31
35 40 37 22
34 31 40 38
39 36 37 27
45 36 29 23
40 32 26 34
57 26 28 27
22 35 27 35
61
36
30
24
34
34
27
24
21
22
19
15
27
Differencee from all respondents,
percentage points
42
25
9
23
28
18
17
21
26
21
10
30
35
22
35
16
19
17
22
19
15
17
20
16
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Digitization prevails | Current as of March 2022
13. McKinsey & Company 13
In social media and entertainment, WeChat has the highest
stickiness, followed by video platforms
Frequency of engagement with social media/entertainment platforms1
% of all respondents
1. Q: What social-media platforms do you engage with, and if so, how frequently?
99
93
36
44
38 34 33
19
10
40 38
14
7
64
56
62 66 67
81
90
60 62
86
Tencent
QQ
Tencent
Audio
Overall Zhihu
BiliBili
Aiqiyi
WeChat Youku TikTok YouTube RED Weibo
1
Never/ Less than weekly
Weekly or more
Digitization prevails | Current as of March 2022
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
14. McKinsey & Company 14
44 48
30
80
42
40 56
46 50
100
52 54
40
62
60
66
64 68 70
10
72
50
70
74 76 78 80
0
90
20
Video chat: personal
TikTok
Wellness app
Telemedicine: physical
Digital exercise machine
Online fitness
Meal kit delivery
Playing online games
Grocery delivery
Online streaming
Videoconferencing: professional
Telemedicine: mental
Watching e-sports
Remote learning: myself
Remote learning: my children
Social media
Restaurant delivery
Digitization prevails | Current as of March 2022
Intent to use when the COVID-19 crisis subsides2
% of new or increased users who intend to keep doing activity
User
growth
since
COVID-19
1
1. User growth is calculated as % of respondents who replied that they are new users over % of respondents who replied that they were using the product/service pre-COVID-19 (using more, using the same, or using less) on Q: Which best
describes when you have done or used each of these items?
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates percent who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
Intent to continue use is higher for digital services than alternatives
to in-store shopping
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
15. McKinsey & Company 15
12 17
18
Used a food delivery provider
32
Self-checkout or scan-and-go at a physical store
11
73
63
Downloaded/used deal-finding plug-ins
8
9 45 13
33
69
4
74
Curbside delivery at a store
14
6
5
75
Downloaded/used a new store/restaurant app
71
10
15
4
Buy online, pick up in store
62
4
10
6
20
77
4
11
6
10
14
4
Shopped at a store I had not shopped at before for groceries
14
Purchased directly from social media
5
7
80
2
Purchased secondhand products online
9
12
8
5
Used an app/website for delivery within 2 hours or less
7
69
79
13
9
Changed my primary grocery store
8 15
4
81
Cooked regularly for myself/my family
Used an app/website for same-day delivery
77
14
6
Personal care/grooming at home
9
44
15
Tried making something myself/DIY project
4
Intent to
continue2
Most consumers intend to continue using alternatives to in-store
shopping
Digitization prevails | Current as of March 2022
74
57
81
83
76
85
83
76
78
77
85
80
83
78
41
Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items?1
% of respondents who have used in the last 3 months
Will increase this
Will stop this
Will reduce this
Will keep doing what I am doing now
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
1. Q: And have you used or done any of the following in the last 3 months? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19 started”; “I have not used in
the last 3 months”; “I have used in the last 3 months at the same rate as before”; “3.I have used this more in the past 3 month than before”; “I have used this less in the past 3 months than before.”
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
16. McKinsey & Company 16
Once they start using, majorities of consumers will continue or
increase their usage of digital activities
Digitization prevails | Current as of March 2022
Telemedicine for physical health care
6
15
Video conferencing for professional use
44
48
36
Wellness app
5
46
Online personal training, fitness
41
10
7
29
9 39
21
27
48
9
11
Meal kit delivery
32
34
36
Digital workout bike or machine
8
47
35
8
33
12
28
30
26
Online streaming
Virtual hangouts and video chats for personal use
14
17
15
45
Restaurant food delivery
33
38
10
9
12
17
Grocery delivery
10
11
27
54
8
9
43
45
35
Telemedicine for mental health care
32
Remote learning for myself
6
16
44
11
Playing online games
48
5
19
24
18
48
Remote learning for my kids
Watching online gaming
30
9
14
Used TikTok
26
52
12
10
Used social media
47
57
66
61
46
63
48
65
44
63
55
48
52
57
69
50
76
75
Intent to
continue2
Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items?1
% of respondents who have used in the last 3 months
Using less
Just started using Using same Using more
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
1. Q: Have you used or done any of the following since the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis started? If yes, Q: Which best describes when you have done or used each of these items? Possible answers: “just started using since COVID-19
started”; “using more since COVID-19 started”; “using about the same since COVID-19 started”; “using less since COVID-19 started.”
2. Q: Compared to now, will you do or use the following more, less, or not at all, once the coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis subsides (ie, once there is herd immunity)? Possible answers: “will stop this”; ”will reduce this”; “will keep doing what I am
doing now”; “will increase this.” Number indicates respondents who chose “will keep doing what I am doing now” and “will increase this” among new or increased users.
17. McKinsey & Company 17
Most consumers use a WeChat account, and key video platforms
have a penetration of roughly 50 percent
1. Q: What social-media platforms and entertainment platforms do you engage with, and if so, how frequently?
Tencent QQ QQ 13 35
2
32
57
5
10
29
10
52
2
52 13
WeChat
15
RED
YouTube
8
9
84
16
16
48
12
9
47
Tencent Audio
14
13
16
5
Aiqiyi
14
16
Weibo
8
51
Youku
5
10
4
16
17
7
4
84
14
15
20
65
TikTok
8
7
Zhihu
BiliBili 76 4
4
3
3
2 6 6 2
6
Which best describes your level of engagement with social media?1
% of respondents who have used in the last 3 months
Once a month or less
Do not engage/no account
Multiple times per day
Daily
Weekly
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Digitization prevails | Current as of March 2022
18. McKinsey & Company 18
Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual1
Net intent2
Net intent to spend decreased across categories, especially fitness
and wellness
1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
3. “Fitness and wellness” includes gym and workout classes.
Negative impact on spend | Current as of March 2022
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020, n =
1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249; 5/19–5/25/2020, n = 1,285; 5/5–5/11/2020, n = 1,257; 4/15–4/19/2020, n = 1,220; 4/8–4/13/2020, n = 1,216; 4/1–4/6/2020, n = 1,896; 3/25–3/30/2020, n = 1,048; 3/20–
2/23/2020, n = 1,225; 2/21–2/24/2020, n = 1,249, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
−10
−20
0
10
20
30
−30
Mar
2020
May
2020
Apr
2020
June
2020
Feb
2021
Sept
2020
Dec
2020
Oct
2021
Mar
2022
Groceries
Personal-care products
Household supplies
Skin care and makeup
Consumer electronics
Fitness and wellness3
Apparel
19. McKinsey & Company 19
Consumers report negative net intent to spend for out-of-home
activities
Net intent >1
Net intent −15 to 0
Net intent: < −15
14
9
15
18
28
33
14
16
26
13
8
10
7
12
11
13
9
14
72
88
66
65
64
59
73
76
59
81
84
79
84
81
81
84
84
75
14
2
20
18
7
8
12
9
15
6
8
11
9
7
8
3
7
11
Quick-service restaurant
Food takeout and delivery
Skin care and makeup
Tobacco products
Groceries
Alcohol
Restaurant
Personal-care products
Footwear
Apparel
Jewelry
Accessories
Toys and baby supplies
Household supplies
Home and furniture
Sports and outdoors
Home improvement, garden
Kitchen and dining
Decrease Stay the same Increase
8
5
10
13
20
31
10
32
19
11
9
14
30
34
32
56
22
37
87
80
80
73
67
66
79
63
76
68
86
82
65
65
59
44
73
62
6
15
11
14
13
3
11
5
5
21
5
5
4
1
9
6
1
Pet care services
Vitamins and OTC medicine
Pet food and supplies
Hotel/resort stays
Fitness and wellness
Entertainment at home
Books/magazines/newspapers
Out-of-home entertainment
Consumer electronics
Personal-care services
Gasoline
Vehicles
Short-term home rentals
Travel by car
Cruises
Adventures and tours
International flights
Domestic flights
0
Net
intent2
1
1
−7
−28
1
−27
−14
10
−9
−26
−33
−24
−56
−16
11
−5
1. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual? Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
2. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
3. Small sample size (n < 25).
0
−3
12
−1
−21
−25
−10
−14
−13
−10
−6
−8
−7
−15
4
−13
−23
4
Change since
Oct 2021
Change since
Oct 2021
−2 0
13
−2
−14
−14
−33
−4
−37
−11
11
−7
0
−23
−13
−10
−323
−10
−36 2
Net
intent2
−11
−1
−1
1
−3
−7
5
0
−21
−25
−2
−7
−7
2
−5
−9
−2
−4
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65
years old
Expected spending per category over the next 2–3 months vs usual1
% of respondents
Negative impact on spend | Current as of March 2022
20. McKinsey & Company 20
Net intent to spend decreased more in those saying they are
unlikely to get vaccinated
1. Net intent is calculated by subtracting the % of respondents stating they expect to decrease spending from the % of respondents stating they expect to increase spending.
2. Q: Over the next 2–3 months, do you expect that you will spend more, about the same, or less money on these categories than usual?
+2
percentage points
Likelihood of
vaccinated vs
unvaccinated people
to spend
For selected categories
Net intent1 for expected spending per category over the next 2 weeks vs usual2
Unlikely Cautious Interested Vaccinated
Groceries
Food takeout and delivery
Restaurant
Quick-service restaurant
Household supplies
Personal-care items
Skin care and makeup
Fitness and wellness
Out-of-home entertainment
Travel by car
13
−4
0
−5
−2
−12
−24
−27
−32
−53
12
0
−34
−46
5
0
−13
−31
−16
−16
−2
6
−24
−6
−1
12
−12
−19
−64
−3
−1
5
−26
−21
1
2
−4
−12
−25
−29
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Negative impact on spend | Current as of March 2022
21. McKinsey & Company 21
Spend increase is driven mainly by price, followed by shift to
premiumization and quantity
1
39
4
2
3
1
9
4
11
33
33
5
3
1
42
42
100
41
45
5
5
7
27
9
8
2
19
6
23
19
29
25
22
24
21
19
43
17
25
28
24
32
58
58
30
29
37
33
36
44
26
28
20
53
31
16
43
28
33
30
36
36
36
4
50
43
30
34
26
29
27
20
23
17
29
12
29
26
28
12
60
39
40
45
39
34
41
43
37
39
41
38
40
40
52
35
53
51
Quick-service restaurant
Household supplies
Pet food and supplies2
Skin care and makeup
Groceries
Tobacco products2
Alcoholic
Food takeout and delivery
Restaurant
Footwear
Apparel
Jewelry2
Accessories2
Toys and baby supplies2
Personal-care products
Home and furniture2
Vehicles2
Sports and outdoors2
Travel by car
Fitness and wellness2
Kitchen and dining2
Home improvement, gardening2
Consumer electronics
Vitamins and OTC medicine
Books/magazines/newspapers
Petcare services
Personal-care services
Gasoline
Increase in income
Larger quantity
Premium brands/products
Increase in price
Reasons for increase in spend1
% of respondents who increased spend
1. Q: Please indicate the main reason for planning to spend more on the following categories.
2. Small sample size (n < 25).
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Negative impact on spend | Current as of March 2022
22. McKinsey & Company 22
Reasons for decrease in spend led by purchasing smaller quantities
and switching to value-for-money brands
6
18
9
6
4
7
4
4
6
3
5
3
7
8
3
3
5
5
3
10
4
55
54
55
56
67
61
55
60
62
56
59
51
59
63
58
61
53
49
81
61
57
59
50
52
61
69
33
59
39
28
36
39
29
32
41
36
33
44
41
46
36
35
42
32
47
43
19
39
40
38
46
43
36
22
67
37
Alcoholic
Quick-service restaurant
Personal-care services
0
Apparel
Jewelry
0
0
0
Accessories2
Toys and baby supplies2
Gasoline
Household supplies
Restaurant
Vitamins and OTC medicine2
Skin care and makeup
0
Sports and outdoors2
Home and furniture2
0
Footwear
Home improvement, gardening2
0
Kitchen and dining2
Tobacco products
Pet food and supplies
Groceries
Books/magazines/newspapers
Consumer electronics
Personal-care products
Fitness and wellness
Food takeout and delivery
Vehicles2
Travel by car
Pet care services2
Decrease in income Switch to less expensive
Smaller quantity
Reasons for decrease in spend1
% of respondents who decreased spend
1. Q: Please indicate the main reason for planning to spend less on the following categories.
2. Small sample size (n < 25).
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Negative impact on spend | Current as of March 2022
23. McKinsey & Company 23
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart shows those already participating in these activities.
2. Gen Z are people under 25 years old, millennials are 25–44 years old, Gen X are people 45–54 years old, baby boomers are 55 years old and above.
3. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
Consumers engaging in out-of-home activities,1 % of respondents
Due to the omicron breakout, only 47 percent of consumers say they
are engaging in out-of-home activities
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187; 2/20–3/8/2021, n = 1,128; 12/11–12/15/2020, n = 1,199; 9/16–9/24/2020,
n = 1,123; 6/15–6/21/2020, n = 1,249, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
47
84
66
85
81
41
Feb 2021
Mar 2022
Oct 2021
Dec 2020
Sept 2020
June 2021
Overall
49
26
Unvaccinated
Vaccinated
42
48
56
Low (<14K
renminbi)
Medium (14K–
30K renminbi)
High (>30K
renminbi)
By
generation2
By
vaccination
adoption
By income
51%
of Gen X are doing out-
of-home activities
56%
of higher-income
households are doing
out-of-home activities
49%
of people who are
vaccinated are doing
out-of-home activities
45 45
51 48
Gen Z Millennials Gen X Baby boomers3
Decrease in out-of-home activities | Current as of March 2022
24. McKinsey & Company 24
1. Q: With the rise of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, how, if at all, has your out-of-home behavior changed?
14 15 20
54 56 52
29 27 27
Low (<14K
renminbi)
Medium
(14K–30K
renminbi)
High (>30K
renminbi)
1
2 1
14
26
55
56
29
16
Unvaccinated
2
Vaccinated
2
15
55
28
2
Engage more
Overall
Engage less
Engage same as
before omicron
Engage with
adjusted behavior
By income By vaccination status
High-income
consumers are likelier
than other income
segments to report
engaging in out-of-
home activities the
same as before
Key findings
Adjustments to out-of-home behavior due to prevalence of omicron variant,1 % of respondents
Over 80 percent of consumers have changed the way they engage in
out-of-home activities because of the omicron variant
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Decrease in out-of-home activities | Current as of March 2022
25. McKinsey & Company 25
1. Q: Which best describes how you are engaging in each of these activities? Possible answers: “Not doing this at all”; “Doing this in the same way as pre-COVID-19, but less often”; “Doing this in a modified way vs. pre-COVID-19”;
“Doing this just as much and in the same way as I did pre-COVID-19.”
Work
Shopping
Transport/
travel
Social
Personal
care
Entertain-
ment
18
Dine indoors at a restaurant or bar 15
Go to a hair or nail salon
82
85
14
85
15
86
Go out for family entertainment
Attend an indoor cultural event
85
Attend an outdoor event
19
15
Visit a crowded outdoor public place
81
13
87
19
Go to the gym or fitness studio
84 16
Get together with family
81
Get together with friends
86
85
84
14
16
Work outside my home
14
Travel by airplane
15
Shop for groceries/necessities
86
13
Shop for non-necessities
20
80
8
Go to a shopping mall
87
Travel more than 2 hours by car
10
90
Use public transportation
91
Use a ride-sharing service
9
92
Travel by train
6
94
Stay in a hotel
7
93
Rent a short-term home
Doing less, doing in a modified way
Doing as much as and in the same way as pre-COVID-19
Engagement in out-of-home activities1
% of respondents having engaged in activity pre-COVID-19
Depending on the category, about 80 to 95 percent of consumers
have modified their behavior when out of home
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Decrease in out-of-home activities | Current as of March 2022
26. McKinsey & Company 26
Main life events done in the last 12 months as a result of COVID,1 % of respondents Change >3 pp
53
11
4
17
13
9
16
7
6
5
4
Decided to change jobs
Worked more from home
Started homeshooling children3
Moved into a smaller home
Set up a gym at home
Set up a gym at home
Set up a specific work-from-home space
Got a new pet at home (eg, dog, cat)
Moved into a bigger home
Bought a property
Sold a property
Work/study
change
Mar 2022
Pet adoption
House move
Home
renovation
Investments/
divestments
Total,2
%
Change from
Oct 2021,
percentage points
0
1
2
1
0
1
0
0
4
0
4
16
59
13
32
9
1. Q: Which of the following have you done in the last 12 months as a result of the COVID-19 crisis?
2. Total percentage of people who choose option(s) in the category.
3. Received 0 answers in Oct 2021 survey.
Consumers are likelier than in October 2021 to report working from
home and homeschooling children
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years
old
Decrease in out-of-home activities | Current as of March 2022
27. McKinsey & Company 27
Milestones for the China population not yet engaging with out-of-home activities1
% of respondents awaiting each milestone before engaging
48
37
10
5
Government lifts
restrictions and
other requirements
Government
lifts restrictions
Vaccination
coverage
COVID-19 no
longer spreading
53%
of people are not
currently engaging
in ‘normal’ out-of-
home activities
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Vaccination coverage
Government lifts restrictions and…
1. Q: Which best describes when you will regularly return to stores, restaurants, and other out-of-home activities? Chart rebased to exclude those already
participating in these activities and those who do not deem any of these items important. Figures may not sum to 100% because of rounding.
12%
Medical authorities deem safe
13%
Stores, restaurants, and other
indoor places start taking safety
measures
12%
I see other people returning
6%
Vaccine is widely distributed
2%
I have been vaccinated
2%
Family member(s) vaccinated
Cautious consumers cite restrictions by government
and vaccination coverage as primary reasons for not
yet returning to out-of-home activities
Decrease in out-of-home activities | Current as of March 2022
28. McKinsey & Company 28
89
34
33
27
27
26
24
Different retailer/store/website
Any new shopping behavior
New digital shopping method2
New shopping method2
New social-commerce shopping method2
Private label/store brand
Differerent brand
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of March 2022
Gen Z Millennials
Income cut
Generational cut
All consumers
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
1. Q: Over the past 3 months, which of the following have you done? 11% replied “None of these.”
2. “New shopping method” includes curbside pickup and delivery apps; “new digital shopping method” includes downloaded a new app, signed up for a new subscription service; “New social-commerce shopping method” includes live shopping.
Behaviors since COVID-19 started1
% of respondents
Almost 90 percent of consumers say they have tried out a new
shopping behavior, especially digital methods
Difference from all respondents,
percentage points
Gen X
Baby
boomers
Low
(<14K
renminbi)
Medium
(14K–30K
renminbi)
High
(>30k
renminbi)
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278; 10/15–10/22/2021, n = 1,187, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years
old
88 88
30 37
28 35
36 31
27 27
22 23
86 96
32 38
33 35
24 12
24 33
27 33
79 88 90
30 32 35
20 34 34
31 31 25
21 28 27
16 25 27
24 25 24 22 23 25 24
29. McKinsey & Company 29
Over half of consumers encountering stockouts substituted a
retailer, brand, or product to make a purchase
1. Q: Over the last 3 months, have you wanted to buy something and not been able to purchase it because it was out of stock or otherwise not available?
2. Q: The most recent time this happened (when you wanted to buy something and it was not available), what did you do?
40
60
Oct 2021
Could not purchase
at least 1 item
Able to purchase
all items
Respondents who planned to purchase
something but could not, due to unavailability1
% of respondents
22
23
13
15
27
Bought the product
at different retailer
Bought a different brand or similar
product at a different retailer
Bought a different product
at the same retailer
Waited until the product was
available at the same retailer
Did not buy anything
All consumers who could not make a planned
purchase2
% of respondents
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278, sampled and weighted to match China’s general population 18–65 years old
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of March 2022
30. McKinsey & Company 30
Reason for trying a new brand since COVID-19 began1
% of respondents selecting reason in top 3
1. Q: You mentioned you tried a new/different brand than what you normally buy. What were the main reasons that drove this decision? Select up to 3 relevant reasons. “Brand” includes different brand, new
private label/store brand. Overarching reason based on % of individual respondents responding to at least 1 reason in the group.
2. Baby boomers includes silent generation.
21
Larger package sizes
17
Supporting local businesses
13
35
20
25
Is available where I’m shopping
10
26
14
Is natural/organic
5
12
5
19
20
17
10
12
Better prices/promotions
Better value
Better quality
Better shipping/delivery cost
Is more sustainable/better for the environment
Shares my values
The company treats its employees well
Has more sustainable/environmentally friendly options
Wanted variety/a change from my normal routine
Wanted to treat myself
Is natural/organic
Products are in stock
Wanted to try a type of product I’ve never tried before
Wanted to try a new brand I found
15
Novelty
Personal choice
Purpose-driven
Quality/organic
Convenience
Health/hygiene
Availability
61
Value 67
35
34
20
15
12
17
Baby
boomers2
Gen Z/
millennials Gen X
36 42
32
23 20
24
12 14
11
9 4
12
24 29
21
18 21
15
14 17
12
13 9
15
5 6
5
20 16
24
18 17
18
22 23
22
16 17
16
19 14
23
19 16
22
12 12
11
4 4
3
All consumers
Between −3 and +3
< −3 > +3
Consumers in China point to value and purpose-driven
considerations as primary drivers of brand switching
x Net % of respondents per category
Difference from all respondents,
percentage points
Source: McKinsey & Company COVID-19 China Consumer Pulse Survey, 3/11–3/20/2022, n = 1,278, sampled and weighted to match China’s general
population 18–65 years old
11 14
8
Loyalty shake-up continues | Current as of March 2022