Subscribe to Friedman’s free publication “This Week in Geopolitics” (http://bit.ly/1KRASkn) and get an in-depth view of the forces that will drive events and investors in the next year, decade, or even a century from now. -- Many people think of maps in terms of their basic purpose: showing a country’s geography and topography. But maps can speak to all dimensions—political, military, and economic. In fact, they are the first place to start thinking about a country’s strategy, which can reveal factors that are otherwise not obvious. The 10 maps in this slide deck show Russia’s difficult position since the Soviet Union collapsed and explain Putin’s long-term intentions in Europe.

1. 10 Maps That
Explain Russia’s
Strategy

2. Russia is almost landlocked.

3. This map reveals Russia’s major
weak point.

4. The country has limited access
to global maritime trade—
which overall has a big political
and economic impact.

5. Europe controls Russia’s access to the
oceans.

6. European Russia has three
access points to global
maritime trade: the Black Sea,
St. Petersburg, and the Arctic
Ocean.

7. Europe, however, controls
nearly all water passageways
from these points.

8. In other words, Russia is
politically landlocked. This
demonstrates the country’s
vulnerability to NATO.

9. Russia’s population clusters along its
western border.

10. Russian agriculture is in the southwest.

11. Russia’s railroad network is oriented
toward the west.

12. Simply put, the core of Russia’s
infrastructure is positioned
along the western border.

13. The country has few barriers to
stop the enemy from paralyzing
its economic activity.

14. Now, let’s look back at history.

15. This is Russia’s position in 1914, just
before WWI.

16. The Russian Empire’s
penetration into Europe before
WWI gave it a significant buffer
against the West.

17. The depth of this buffer allowed
the Russians to fend off attacks
from Germany and the Austro-
Hungarian Empire in 1914.

18. German-Occupied Europe in 1942

19. The extent of the German
advance in the southeast during
WWII posed a big threat to
Russia’s sovereignty.

20. The Germans seized almost all
of the European Peninsula and,
in their final thrust, moved east
and south into the Caucasus.

21. Ultimately, Russia defeated
Germany through depth and
the toughness of its troops.

22. If Russia didn’t have that
strategic depth, it would have
lost the war.

23. The Furthest Russia Extended After WWII

24. No wonder Russia’s strategy at
the close of and after World
War II was to push its frontiers
as far west as possible.

25. Russia managed to seize the
entirety of Eastern Europe
during the Cold War, which was
an ideal position for the Soviet
Union.

26. However, when oil prices fell in
the 1980s, the Russians could
not sustain the decline of
revenue. This crippled the
Soviet Union.

27. With so few natural and political barriers,
today’s Russia is at risk.

28. After 1991, Russia lost control
of nearly all of Eastern Europe.
Its border had not been that
close to Moscow in a very long
time.

29. The West absorbed the Baltics
into NATO, bringing St.
Petersburg within a hundred
miles of a NATO country.

30. Ukraine, however, has been the
most critical buffer against the
West for the Russians.

31. The Ukrainian border goes
through Russia’s agricultural
center, as well as large
population centers and
transportation networks.

32. Letting a pro-Western regime
gain a foothold so close to the
Russian heartland would make
Russia more vulnerable than
ever.

33. As a result, the Russians are
unlikely to leave the Ukrainian
question where it is.

34. Russia has a very diverse yet united
society.

35. Don’t underestimate the power
of anti-Western solidarity in
Russia.

36. The inherent support for the
Russian nation remains
powerful, despite the ethnic
diversity and economic
difficulties.

37. It’s not prosperity, but shared
idealization that holds the
country together.

38. All of this gives the Russians an
opportunity.

39. However bad their economy is,
the simplicity of Russia’s
geographic position and
cultural character give them
capabilities that can surprise
anyone.

40. In other words, now Russia has
nothing to lose. That gives
them a strong psychological
advantage against the West.

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