Agile estimations not working? Not even when using "Realistic Time" in your estimates. Here are some of the many reasons why.

1. Why isn’t my “Realistic Time”
realistic?
How to recognize the pitfalls of planning and
estimation
Martin R. Bailey
PMP, ACP, CSM, ITIL

2. Ideal & Realistic Time
 Ideal Time – The time we estimate it
will take to complete work
uninterrupted (consider this an
estimate of size)
 Realistic Time takes in consideration
other work being done that may delay
delivery
 Example: A task may take 40 hours, but must
be spread out to 10 days due to other work

3. Example of a 40hr work week
Task A 3
hr
Task B 4 hrs
Task C
10 hrs
Task D
12 hrs
Task E 8 hrs
This one week plan uses 37 out of 40 hours
Or does it?

4. Does your Team do support?
Task A 3
hr
Task B 4 hrs
Task C
10 hrs
Task D
12 hrs
Task E 8 hrs
If the average of support is 10 hours per week…..
37 becomes 47…… or you lose 10 hrs of Project time

5. What about other “Overhead”?
Task A 3
hr
Task B 4 hrs
Task C
10 hrs
Task D
12 hrs
Task E 8 hrs
Overhead could include: Staff Meetings, Non-project
meetings, interruptions, e-mail, context switching
between tasks, and more….. Up to 20% per week!

6. The result
Task A 3
hr
Task B 4 hrs
Task C
10 hrs
Task D
12 hrs
Task E 8 hrs
Either:
1) The 37 hour work week is now a 55 hour work week
2) The 37 hour Project work week is now 19 hours

7. The result:
potentially extended project time
Task A 3
hr
Task B 4 hrs
Task C
10 hrs
Task D
12 hrs
Task E 8 hrs
It is time for discussion:
Do we extend all or delay Tasks E & C?

8. Other Factors to consider
 Method of Estimates
 Precision of Estimates
 Estimate Range
 Buffer for difficulties

9. How to Improve your Estimates
 Your accuracy should improve as you
proceed
 Get feedback as you prepare
estimates
 Ensure that overhead, support and
other factors are considered
 Decrease Multitasking and working on
Multiple projects

10. How to Improve your Estimates
 Project Managers and Scrum Masters
should act as a Buffer or Gatekeeper
 Use Lessons Learned and similar
activities as a guide
 Continuous Examination and
Improvement
 #1 Be Transparent and Communicate

11. Estimating Improved !
 With these concerns addressed, your
estimates should improve.
Martin R. Bailey
PMP, ACP, CSM, ITIL