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The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition




                                       Phone:    +44 20 8123 2220
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                                       http://marketpublishers.com
Phone: +44 20 8123 2220
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The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition
IDATE Consulting & Research

Date: June 1, 2012
Pages: 86
Price: US$ 4,200.00 US$ 3,360.00 (Offer valid until September 15, 2012)
ID: E059F09C0CFEN

This report proposes an international benchmark for DTT rollout and Analogue Switch-Off (ASO) practices
and also presents guidelines for the ASO.

It addresses the issues and prospects of the (Second) Digital Dividend and details business models for the
overall process of transition to digital, including three country cases in the low- to mid-GDP/pop range.


            What are the key standards and technologies used in DTT, mobile TV, digital radio and mobile
            broadband? What are the trends, internationally?
            Where do we stand in terms of DTT rollout and ASO processes in the world? What are the key
            driving factors?
            Following the ASO in Europe, what are the lessons learnt? What are the best practices and key
            milestones for a smooth transition?
            Is there any room for cooperation between the worlds of telecoms and TV in the spectrum split?
            Towards a Second Digital Dividend in EMEA?
            What is the business case for the digital transition in low- to mid-GDP/pop countries? What
            investments and costs are necessary? Who is funding the transition? What role should
            Public-Private partnerships be playing?



Table of Content
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1.1. Planning DTT rollout and analogue switch-off: an international benchmark
1.2. Preparing the analogue switch-off
1.3. The Digital Dividend(s)
1.4. Business model

2. METHODOLOGY

3. SERVICES AND TECHNOLOGIES ON THE TERRESTRIAL NETWORK

3.1. Digital terrestrial TV technologies
 3.1.1. DTTV transmission standards
 3.1.2. Digital TV broadcast efficiency
3.2. Digital radio overview
 3.2.1. DAB, DAB+, DMB
 3.2.2. DRM, DRM+
 3.2.3. HD Radio
 3.2.4. Digital radio: advantages over analogue terrestrial
3.3. Broadcast Mobile (handled) TV
3.4. Mobile broadband technologies
 3.4.1. The key evolution of mobile technology
 3.4.2. New radio technologies

The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition                                                               2
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4. DTT ROLLOUT AND ANALOGUE SWITCH-OFF PLANS: THE INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARK .24

4.1. Africa-Middle East
4.2. Asia-Pacific
4.3. Europe
4.4. Latin America
4.5. North America
4.6. How national DTT strategies are influenced
 4.6.1. The impact of the TV landscape on DTT strategy and ASO framework
 4.6.2. Choice of standards and technology leapfrog
 4.6.3. Besides terrestrial DTV, few additional services developed so far
 4.6.4. The role of coordination in the DTT rollout
 4.6.5. Industrial policy and costs of receivers have affected choice of DTT standards

5. PREPARING THE ANALOGUE SWITCH-OFF

5.1. Defining the ASO action plan
5.2. Some lessons from the European ASO
 5.2.1. Digital Terrestrial TV has been major driver of digital TV penetration
 5.2.2. The consumer market is key
 5.2.3. Need to involve and coordinate national public stakeholders
 5.2.4. DTT spectrum rights and role of the multiplex operator
 5.2.5. Terrestrial network is cornerstone for frequency resource management and plays key role in
spectrum and network optimisation
5.3. Strategy for digital transition: guidelines

6. THE DIGITAL DIVIDEND(S)

6.1. The digital dividend framework
 6.1.1. The golden frequencies
 6.1.2. The regulatory framework
6.2. The worlds of TV and mobile telecom fight over spectrum
 6.2.1. The position of TV broadcasting players
 6.2.2. The position of mobile broadband operators
6.3. Towards a Second Digital Dividend?
 6.3.1. In the USA
 6.3.2. In Europe
 6.3.3. In the Middle East - Africa

7. THE BUSINESS MODELS OF DIGITAL TRANSITION

7.1. DTT rollout strategies
7.2. Key investments and costs for economic transition
 7.2.1. The network
 7.2.2. The consumer devices
 7.2.3. The marketing of digital transition
7.3. Case studies of typical rollout investments
 7.3.1. Methodology
 7.3.2. Case studies
7.4. Funding the digital transition
 7.4.1. How far can the digital transition be funded?
 7.4.2. Funding through the digital dividend to mobile operators
 7.4.3. Funding by the television industry
7.5. Matching investments and costs and funding: the role of public funding
The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition                                                             3
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  7.5.1. Cases studies comparing funding and investments for the digital transition
  7.5.2. Sensitivity analysis: key parameters impacting the economics of digital transition86
  7.5.3. Synthesis: funding of the digital transition

TABLES

Table 1: T-DMB vs DVB-H
Table 2: Spectrum efficiency and data rate per sector
Table 3: Data rates for HSPA and LTE technologies
Table 4: Expected impact of new radio technologies
Table 5: DTT standards and milestones, Africa-Middle East
Table 6: DTT standards and milestones, Asia-Pacific
Table 7: DTT standards and milestones, Western Europe
Table 8: DTT standards and milestones, Eastern Europe
Table 9: DTT standards and milestones, Latin America
Table 10: DTT standards and milestones, North America
Table 11: Time to ASO in North America, in years
Table 12: Multiplex license scenarios
Table 13: Regional groups for ITU World radio conferences
Table 14: Worldwide perspectives of DD allocation
Table 15: Clearing cost of the 800 MHz digital dividend in the UK
Table 16: Network capacity units
Table 17: Predicted spectrum requirements by the year 2020 for IMT-2000 and IMT-Advanced
Table 18: Main characteristics of frequency bands for LTE
Table 19: Economic outcomes of the Digital Dividend to mobile
Table 20: Impact of 10% point change in broadband take-up on GDP growth rate
Table 21: Overview of the main DTT schemes
Table 22: DTT Network capex elements and impact on coverage
Table 23: Examples of digital transition marketing budgets
Table 24: Costs hypothesis in IDATE DTT transition model
Table 25: Key parameters of the case studies
Table 26: Country A case study – digital transition costs
Table 27: Country B case study – digital transition costs
Table 28: Country C case study – digital transition costs
Table 29: Examples of STB subsidy budgets
Table 30: Revenues of the digital transition, based on the released spectrum after ASO (digital dividend)
acquired by telecom operators
Table 31: Equipment for playout center
Table 32: Comparison of pre-DTT, simulcast and post-ASO transmission costs
Table 33: Funding hypothesis per country scenario
Table 34: Sensitivity analysis of total digital transition costs to specific key items
Table 35: Sensitivity analysis of the need for funding to specific key items
Table 36: Summary of positive and negative factors on the level of funding needed

FIGURES

Figure 1: Key features of recent worldwide DTTV transmission standards
Figure 2: MPEG-4 AVC vs MPEG-2
Figure 3: Number of DTV channels in a Multiplex in MPEG-4
Figure 4: DAB, DAB+ in the world
Figure 5: Frequency bands and capability of different digital radio technologies
Figure 6: FDD and TDD technologies
Figure 7: Transition map in Africa/Middle East
Figure 8: Time to ASO in Africa-Middle East
Figure 9: Time to ASO in Asia-Pacific
The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition                                                              4
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Figure 10: Time to ASO in Western Europe
Figure 11: Time to ASO in Eastern Europe
Figure 12: Time to ASO in Latin America
Figure 13: Impacts of the terrestrial TV footprint in the DTT process
Figure 14: DVBT-2 rollout
Figure 15: Illustrations of interactive and datacasting services on DTT
Figure 16: Parallel standardisation of hybrid TV in Europe
Figure 17: Factors that have influenced the selection of standards in Latin America
Figure 18: DTV reception per network in Europe, primary TV set, 2008-2012
Figure 19: DTT as most dynamic digital TV platform in Europe
Figure 20: Digital UK "Full Service" communications model
Figure 21: The coordination role of Digital UK
Figure 22: DGTVi certification logo
Figure 23: Transmission operator as a MUX operator
Figure 24: Advantages of sub-1 000 MHz frequencies
Figure 25: Germany, 82% of auction value for 7.5% of the spectrum
Figure 26: Spectrum harmonisation: ITU regional arrangements
Figure 27: Main trends in spectrum
Figure 28: Use of 700-900 MHz globally
Figure 29: Digital Dividend in EMEA, Americas and APAC regions
Figure 30: 800 MHz band arrangements in Europe
Figure 31: Economic contribution of DTT in seven European countries
Figure 32: Example of UK clearance of 800 MHz after ASO: the 800 MHz band and adjacent spectrum
Figure 33: Driver for mobile growth traffic
Figure 34: Mobile voice and data traffic 2010-2020
Figure 35: Scenario for a second Digital Dividend
Figure 36: UHF bands IV and V and the 700 MHz band in the UK
Figure 37: Position of the digital terrestrial television platform in selected European countries
Figure 38: An example of network design, Hungary: 50 main transmitter sites for 98% population coverage
Figure 39: France: number of DTT transmitters per power sharing along DTT phases
Figure 40: Overview of a DTT head-end
Figure 41: Comparison of total costs breakdown between the case studies
Figure 42: Costs and funding of the digital transition in country A
Figure 43: Costs and funding of the digital transition in country B
Figure 44: Costs and funding of the digital transition in country C




The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition                                                         5
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The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition

  • 1. The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition Phone: +44 20 8123 2220 Fax: +44 207 900 3970 office@marketpublishers.com http://marketpublishers.com
  • 2. Phone: +44 20 8123 2220 http://marketpublishers.com The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition IDATE Consulting & Research Date: June 1, 2012 Pages: 86 Price: US$ 4,200.00 US$ 3,360.00 (Offer valid until September 15, 2012) ID: E059F09C0CFEN This report proposes an international benchmark for DTT rollout and Analogue Switch-Off (ASO) practices and also presents guidelines for the ASO. It addresses the issues and prospects of the (Second) Digital Dividend and details business models for the overall process of transition to digital, including three country cases in the low- to mid-GDP/pop range. What are the key standards and technologies used in DTT, mobile TV, digital radio and mobile broadband? What are the trends, internationally? Where do we stand in terms of DTT rollout and ASO processes in the world? What are the key driving factors? Following the ASO in Europe, what are the lessons learnt? What are the best practices and key milestones for a smooth transition? Is there any room for cooperation between the worlds of telecoms and TV in the spectrum split? Towards a Second Digital Dividend in EMEA? What is the business case for the digital transition in low- to mid-GDP/pop countries? What investments and costs are necessary? Who is funding the transition? What role should Public-Private partnerships be playing? Table of Content 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.1. Planning DTT rollout and analogue switch-off: an international benchmark 1.2. Preparing the analogue switch-off 1.3. The Digital Dividend(s) 1.4. Business model 2. METHODOLOGY 3. SERVICES AND TECHNOLOGIES ON THE TERRESTRIAL NETWORK 3.1. Digital terrestrial TV technologies 3.1.1. DTTV transmission standards 3.1.2. Digital TV broadcast efficiency 3.2. Digital radio overview 3.2.1. DAB, DAB+, DMB 3.2.2. DRM, DRM+ 3.2.3. HD Radio 3.2.4. Digital radio: advantages over analogue terrestrial 3.3. Broadcast Mobile (handled) TV 3.4. Mobile broadband technologies 3.4.1. The key evolution of mobile technology 3.4.2. New radio technologies The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition 2
  • 3. Phone: +44 20 8123 2220 http://marketpublishers.com 4. DTT ROLLOUT AND ANALOGUE SWITCH-OFF PLANS: THE INTERNATIONAL BENCHMARK .24 4.1. Africa-Middle East 4.2. Asia-Pacific 4.3. Europe 4.4. Latin America 4.5. North America 4.6. How national DTT strategies are influenced 4.6.1. The impact of the TV landscape on DTT strategy and ASO framework 4.6.2. Choice of standards and technology leapfrog 4.6.3. Besides terrestrial DTV, few additional services developed so far 4.6.4. The role of coordination in the DTT rollout 4.6.5. Industrial policy and costs of receivers have affected choice of DTT standards 5. PREPARING THE ANALOGUE SWITCH-OFF 5.1. Defining the ASO action plan 5.2. Some lessons from the European ASO 5.2.1. Digital Terrestrial TV has been major driver of digital TV penetration 5.2.2. The consumer market is key 5.2.3. Need to involve and coordinate national public stakeholders 5.2.4. DTT spectrum rights and role of the multiplex operator 5.2.5. Terrestrial network is cornerstone for frequency resource management and plays key role in spectrum and network optimisation 5.3. Strategy for digital transition: guidelines 6. THE DIGITAL DIVIDEND(S) 6.1. The digital dividend framework 6.1.1. The golden frequencies 6.1.2. The regulatory framework 6.2. The worlds of TV and mobile telecom fight over spectrum 6.2.1. The position of TV broadcasting players 6.2.2. The position of mobile broadband operators 6.3. Towards a Second Digital Dividend? 6.3.1. In the USA 6.3.2. In Europe 6.3.3. In the Middle East - Africa 7. THE BUSINESS MODELS OF DIGITAL TRANSITION 7.1. DTT rollout strategies 7.2. Key investments and costs for economic transition 7.2.1. The network 7.2.2. The consumer devices 7.2.3. The marketing of digital transition 7.3. Case studies of typical rollout investments 7.3.1. Methodology 7.3.2. Case studies 7.4. Funding the digital transition 7.4.1. How far can the digital transition be funded? 7.4.2. Funding through the digital dividend to mobile operators 7.4.3. Funding by the television industry 7.5. Matching investments and costs and funding: the role of public funding The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition 3
  • 4. Phone: +44 20 8123 2220 http://marketpublishers.com 7.5.1. Cases studies comparing funding and investments for the digital transition 7.5.2. Sensitivity analysis: key parameters impacting the economics of digital transition86 7.5.3. Synthesis: funding of the digital transition TABLES Table 1: T-DMB vs DVB-H Table 2: Spectrum efficiency and data rate per sector Table 3: Data rates for HSPA and LTE technologies Table 4: Expected impact of new radio technologies Table 5: DTT standards and milestones, Africa-Middle East Table 6: DTT standards and milestones, Asia-Pacific Table 7: DTT standards and milestones, Western Europe Table 8: DTT standards and milestones, Eastern Europe Table 9: DTT standards and milestones, Latin America Table 10: DTT standards and milestones, North America Table 11: Time to ASO in North America, in years Table 12: Multiplex license scenarios Table 13: Regional groups for ITU World radio conferences Table 14: Worldwide perspectives of DD allocation Table 15: Clearing cost of the 800 MHz digital dividend in the UK Table 16: Network capacity units Table 17: Predicted spectrum requirements by the year 2020 for IMT-2000 and IMT-Advanced Table 18: Main characteristics of frequency bands for LTE Table 19: Economic outcomes of the Digital Dividend to mobile Table 20: Impact of 10% point change in broadband take-up on GDP growth rate Table 21: Overview of the main DTT schemes Table 22: DTT Network capex elements and impact on coverage Table 23: Examples of digital transition marketing budgets Table 24: Costs hypothesis in IDATE DTT transition model Table 25: Key parameters of the case studies Table 26: Country A case study – digital transition costs Table 27: Country B case study – digital transition costs Table 28: Country C case study – digital transition costs Table 29: Examples of STB subsidy budgets Table 30: Revenues of the digital transition, based on the released spectrum after ASO (digital dividend) acquired by telecom operators Table 31: Equipment for playout center Table 32: Comparison of pre-DTT, simulcast and post-ASO transmission costs Table 33: Funding hypothesis per country scenario Table 34: Sensitivity analysis of total digital transition costs to specific key items Table 35: Sensitivity analysis of the need for funding to specific key items Table 36: Summary of positive and negative factors on the level of funding needed FIGURES Figure 1: Key features of recent worldwide DTTV transmission standards Figure 2: MPEG-4 AVC vs MPEG-2 Figure 3: Number of DTV channels in a Multiplex in MPEG-4 Figure 4: DAB, DAB+ in the world Figure 5: Frequency bands and capability of different digital radio technologies Figure 6: FDD and TDD technologies Figure 7: Transition map in Africa/Middle East Figure 8: Time to ASO in Africa-Middle East Figure 9: Time to ASO in Asia-Pacific The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition 4
  • 5. Phone: +44 20 8123 2220 http://marketpublishers.com Figure 10: Time to ASO in Western Europe Figure 11: Time to ASO in Eastern Europe Figure 12: Time to ASO in Latin America Figure 13: Impacts of the terrestrial TV footprint in the DTT process Figure 14: DVBT-2 rollout Figure 15: Illustrations of interactive and datacasting services on DTT Figure 16: Parallel standardisation of hybrid TV in Europe Figure 17: Factors that have influenced the selection of standards in Latin America Figure 18: DTV reception per network in Europe, primary TV set, 2008-2012 Figure 19: DTT as most dynamic digital TV platform in Europe Figure 20: Digital UK "Full Service" communications model Figure 21: The coordination role of Digital UK Figure 22: DGTVi certification logo Figure 23: Transmission operator as a MUX operator Figure 24: Advantages of sub-1 000 MHz frequencies Figure 25: Germany, 82% of auction value for 7.5% of the spectrum Figure 26: Spectrum harmonisation: ITU regional arrangements Figure 27: Main trends in spectrum Figure 28: Use of 700-900 MHz globally Figure 29: Digital Dividend in EMEA, Americas and APAC regions Figure 30: 800 MHz band arrangements in Europe Figure 31: Economic contribution of DTT in seven European countries Figure 32: Example of UK clearance of 800 MHz after ASO: the 800 MHz band and adjacent spectrum Figure 33: Driver for mobile growth traffic Figure 34: Mobile voice and data traffic 2010-2020 Figure 35: Scenario for a second Digital Dividend Figure 36: UHF bands IV and V and the 700 MHz band in the UK Figure 37: Position of the digital terrestrial television platform in selected European countries Figure 38: An example of network design, Hungary: 50 main transmitter sites for 98% population coverage Figure 39: France: number of DTT transmitters per power sharing along DTT phases Figure 40: Overview of a DTT head-end Figure 41: Comparison of total costs breakdown between the case studies Figure 42: Costs and funding of the digital transition in country A Figure 43: Costs and funding of the digital transition in country B Figure 44: Costs and funding of the digital transition in country C The economics of the Digital Terrestrial Transition 5
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