11. Stock Valuation: DDM method Stock price as of June 2007 (date of last data reported in this paper) $44.83 (closing price 8/4/08: $ 20.61) Required rate of return (k) = Risk Free Rate + Company's Beta * MP = RFR 3.97% 10 Y T-Bonds OXM's Beta 1.8 MP = 0.48% Business risk 5.52% Financial Risk Total MP = 6.00% K = 14.77% g= 2.83 average over the period 2000-2007 D (t+1) = 0.66 as the company growth under every respect has been spotty, we assume that Dividends will be able to grow constantly but at a low rate of 1.07% annually, which is the geometric average at which Net Earnings have grown in the past 7 years. P= D/(k-g) = $4.95 Recommendation: sell
12. Stock Valuation: FCFE model 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 mean FCF to the Firm (see table Part 3) 28294 56002 17836 48759 25542 10859 Interest Expense 22,214 23,971 26,146 23,530 1,935 243 Free Cash Flow to the Equity: 6,080 32,031 -8,310 25,229 23,607 10,616 14,876 Value: FCFE/(k-g for FCFE) = as we have seen in part 3 Tables that CF from operations is uneven, we project project $ 14,876 as FCF for the Equity at time 1, and a low growth rate of 6.74%, which is the annual geometric average growth rate for Sales over last 10 years period considered. Value: 14,876 / (0.1477-0.0151) value = $185,255 SO as of June 2007 = 17881 Intrinsic Value per share: $10.36 Recommendation: sell Value of OXM STOCK 01/2009: $ 6.07 – 9.55
13. Support data GDP in B of $ 1998 $8,747 1999 $9,268 2000 $9,817 2001 $10,128 2002 $10,469 2003 $10,960 2004 $11,685 2005 $12,433 2006 $13,194 2007 $13,843 Source: frwebgate.access.gpo.gov
14. Support data Consumer credit outstanding (adapted from monthly series from www.economagic.com) In M of $ 1998 $1,420,454 1999 $1,532,056 2000 $11,717,483 2001 $31,867,199 2002 $81,974,093 2003 $42,077,958 2004 $82,191,323 2005 $62,284,876 2006 $22,387,470 2007 $92,523,632
15. Support data Disposable personal Income 1998 $6,395 1999 $6,695 2000 $7,194 2001 $7,486 2002 $7,830 2003 $8,162 2004 $8,681 2005 $9,092 2006 $9,629 2007 $10,184
16. Support data Estimated Yearly Sales for Clothing Stores in M of $ 1998 10,376 1999 11,188 2000 12,122 2001 14,370 2002 14,790 2003 15,245 2004 15,953 2005 17,184 2006 18,225 2007 $18,518
17. Table 1 A Correlation of Yearly Sales for Clothing Stores with GDP: 0.96854 strong positive correlation: GDP strong driver of clothing sales ( GDP line lies below Sales as we have not converted the data from Billions in M).
18. Table 1 B Correlation of Yearly Sales for Clothing Stores with Cons.Cred.Outst: 0.704658 positive correlation, although not as strong as the one with GDP ( GDP line lies below Sales as we have not converted the data from Billions in M).
19. Table 1 C Correlation of Yearly Sales for Clothing Stores with Dispos Pers Inc.: 0.978 Very strong positive correlation, as it can intuitively be expected . ( GDP line lies below Sales as we have not converted the data from Billions in M).
20. Table 2 A This table has been downloaded from Smartmoney.com and has serves as base of reference OXFORD INDUSTRIES INC BEBE STORES INC COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR CO Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. Quiksilver Inc. VF Corp. Industry Textile-Apparel Clothing Textile-Apparel Clothing Textile-Apparel Clothing Textile-Apparel Clothing Textile-Apparel Clothing Textile-Apparel Clothing Current Share Price 21.3 10.37 37.58 59.01 7.94 70.99 Market Value $338 mil $921 mil $1,306 mil $5,867 mil $1,005 mil $7,747 mil Revenues $1,093 mil $679 mil $1,358 mil $4,880 mil $2,471 mil $7,552 mil Net Earnings $46 mil $67 mil $126 mil $420 mil $-347 mil $625 mil 5-yr Sales Growth 11.58% 17.27% 8.44% 15.50% 23.99% 6.90% 5-yr Earnings Growth 35.30% 28.35% 5.00% 21.84% NA 8.86% Net Profit Margin 4.60% 9.80% 9.30% 8.60% -14.00% 8.30% Short Interest 14.5 14.2 13.3 4.4 8.1 2 Proj. Long-Term EPS Growth (%) 13.00% 14.50% 11.80% 12.00% 13.30% 10.40% Forward P/E 11 13.3 14.3 14.8 8.8 11.7 PEG 0.84 0.92 1.22 1.23 0.66 1.13 Price/Sales 0.3 1.4 1 1.3 0.4 1 Price/Cash Flow NA 10.8 NA 9.3 -4.3 NA Price/Book 0.8 1.9 1.4 2.5 1.5 1.9
21. Table 2 A - continuation OXFORD INDUSTRIES INC BEBE STORES INC COLUMBIA SPORTSWEAR CO Polo Ralph Lauren Corp. Quiksilver Inc. VF Corp. Industry Textile-Apparel Clothing Textile-Apparel Clothing Textile-Apparel Clothing Textile-Apparel Clothing Textile-Apparel Clothing Textile-Apparel Clothing ROE 10.70% 14.00% 13.30% 18.10% -8.60% 17.50% ROA 5.10% 11.40% 11.10% 9.90% -2.90% 9.40% Dividends $0.72 $0.20 $0.64 $0.20 $0.00 $2.32 Dividend Yield 3.38% 1.93% 1.70% 0.34% 0.00% 3.27% Payout Ratio 21.60% 28.20% 17.80% 5.00% 0.00% 41.10% Total Return (12-mos) -38.70% -24.20% -36.20% -21.60% -40.70% -8.20% Total Return (3-yr) -49.80% -53.50% -16.80% 20.30% -47.90% 29.60% Beta 1.8 1.8 1 1.3 0.9 0.7 % Off 52-wk High 47.50% 34.57% 40.35% 36.88% 48.81% 24.27% % Above 52-wk Low 22.41% 17.71% 13.67% 16.74% 39.54% 11.48% On-Balance Volume Index 68 155 134 98 63 117
28. BAL SH 1997 1996 Cash and Cash Equivalent 36882 10479 Receivable 138,035 144079 Inventories 137,333 123,594 Pre-paid expenses 21991 20214 CA related to disc. Oper - 59215 Total Current Assets 334241 357581 PP&E Net 87323 73663 Goodwill Net 222430 199232 Intangible, Net 234081 234453 Other NCA 30663 20666 Total Assets $ 908,738 885595 Current Liabilities: AP 84385 105038 Accrued Salaries 26254 26754 Addit. Ac. Cost Payable 22575 11897 Dividends payable 2646 income Tax payable 8827 3138 Current Debt payable 403 130 CL related to discon. Operat. - 30716 Total Current Liabilities 142444 180319 LT Debt 199294 200023 Other 40947 29979 Non Current Deferred Income Taxes 75108 76573 Shareholders’ Equity: Par Value $ 1 17843 17646 Additional Paid-In Capital 81611 74812 Retained earnings 341369 300973 Accumulated other comprehensive Inc. 10122 5270 Total Sh Ho Equity 450945 398701 Total Liabilities and Shareholders’ Equity 908738 885595
29. Cash Flow Information 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 Net Cash provided by operating activities: 59606 80955 41243 62902 27593 12387 CapPurchases of PP&E 31312 24953 23407 14143 2051 1528 Free Cash Flow for the Firm 28294 56002 17836 48759 25542 10859 Cash Generation: Net Cash provided by operating activities: 59606 80955 41243 62902 27593 12387 Net Cash provided by investing activities -51467 -34594 -166704 -32061 -206090 -431 Net Cash provided by financing activities -10826 -97998 -73999 -7363 184997 -4550 Net cash flow generated/used by continuing op. -2687 -51637 -199460 23478 6500 7406 Net Cash provided by discontinued operations 28316 55820 10229 - - - Net Total Cash-flow 25629 4183 -189231 23478 6500 7406
30. BASIC RATIOS Industry aver. 2007 2006 (src:TDAmeritrade) growth (RR*ROE) 9.00% 10.36% Total Debt/Total Capital 23.37% 45.2% 50.8% Quick ratio 1.71 1.23 0.86 Interest coverage 33.43 4.539795 4.0931125 Return on Equity 22.04% 11.60% 12.84% Return on Assets 13.16% 5.76% 5.78% Return on Capital 15.98% 7.68% 8.21% Return per Employee $303,016 210595 n/a Revenue Growth (Most Rec. Qrt) 17.31% declined Revenue Growth (Trail.12M) 21.11% 1.78% Dividend 0.5127 $0.66 $0.56 Gross Profit margin 49.84% 60.34% 61.08% Operating Profit Margin 16.37% 8.93% 8.85% Net Profit Margin 10.32% 4.63% 4.62% Price/Earning 18.78 12.66 Price/Sales 1.56 0.35 Price/Book 3.35 0.84