analysis of an inner city neighborhood in Louisville KY

1. Analysis of Property Values Compared
to Valid Sales Among Single-Family Homes
in the Churchill East Neighborhood

2. Overview
Churchill East is a neighborhood in transition located in the south-central urban core between two interstates, two major rail lines, the
University of Louisville Belknap Campus, and in close proximity to Louisville International Airport and UPS. In addition, Churchill Downs
Racetrack sits in the middle of the neighborhood, while Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium lies just to the east. The neighborhood is directly
bounded on the north by the U of L campus, on the east by I-265, on the south by I-264, and west along Taylor Boulevard.

3. Overview

4. The Impact of Foreclosures on the Churchill East Neighborhood

5. According to the latest Census data available [Census
2000], Churchill East is a predominantly white
neighborhood the majority of whose residents range in
age from 25 to 55 (see the Population Pyramid Chart
below).
Over 50% of the population are in the low to moderate
income range, 56% own their homes and 8% of the
housing stock is vacant1. Although more current data is not
available, it’s expected that the Churchill East
neighborhood will see a decrease in homeownership,
increase in vacant houses and a rise in poverty since the
last census.
Demographic Profile of the Churchill East Neighborhood
12010 Census data is not available for small areas yet. The US Census Bureau is scheduled to release this data in 2011.
Under 5
5-9
10-14
15-17
18-19
20
21
22-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-61
62-64
65-66
67-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
Male Female
Population by Age and Gender Size of Household
956
511
371
164
79
36
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Two in HHLD Three in HHLD Four in HHLD Five in HHLD Six in HHLD Seven or more in
HHLD
1,829, 53%
1,609, 47%
OWNER RENTER
Owners and Renters

6. Analysis of Current Assessed Values
of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East
Neighborhood
PART I

7. Inventory of Single Family Housing Stock in the Churchill East Neighborhood
12010 Census data is not available for small areas yet.
The majority of the housing stock
(67%) is comprised of 1 story
homes built between 1900 and
1945. The remainder are homes
built anywhere from 1946 to 2008.
Twenty-three percent of the
homes built after 1945 are ranch-
style, 5% are 1 ½ story camelback,
and less than 1% are 2 story
houses.

9. The average assessed value per square foot in the Churchill Neighborhood is ~ $59, and the average home finished size is 1,008 square feet.
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Assessed Value per Square Foot
Below Average Homes,
Below Average Price per
Square Foot
Above Average Homes,
Below Average Price per
Square Foot
Above Average Homes,
Above Average Price per
Square Foot
Below Average Homes,
Above Average Price per
Square Foot
Assessed Value per Square Foot
Where x = Finished Size and y = Dollars per Square Foot

12. To interpret the graph above, a value of 1.0 means that the home [value per sq ft and/or finished size] is the
same as the majority of homes in this neighborhood. Anything less than 1.0 means the value is less than that of
the majority, and anything above 1.0 means the value is higher than the average in that neighborhhood. The
average assessed value per square foot in the Churchill Neighborhood is ~ $59, and the average home finished
size is 1,008 square feet.
The circled area includes all homes 50% above and below the mean for home value and finished size. We will look
at this range of homes, excluding all properties that don’t fall within this selection, for the 1st portion of our
analysis, and look at the excluded data, the outliers, for the 2nd portion of the analysis.
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50
AssessedValue per Square Foot and Finished Size of Home
x = assessed value per square foot in the Churchill neighborhood
y = finished size of single-family homes in the Churchill neighborhood

14. The homes north of
Churchill Downs are
generally assessed at the
lowest dollar values per
square foot, yet the grade
is average or above
average. In contrast, the
homes south and west of
Churchill Downs are
valued higher but graded
below average as Fair.
This situation is being
addressed by the
Residential R & D Team.

15. Quality of Construction of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East Neighborhood
478, 18%
37, 1%
21, 1%
1197, 46%
862, 33%
14, 1% 1, 0% 1, 0%
Average
Average -
Average +
Fair
Fair -
Fair +
Good -
Low
Quality of Construction / Grade

18. Analysis of Valid Sales Between July 1, 2008 and August
10, 2010
of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East
Neighborhood
PART II

19. Distribution of Valid Sales Between July 1, 2008 and August 10, 2010
of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East Neighborhood
High square footage, high
price per foot
715, $109
992, $28
1,097, $104
1,564, $35
1,680, $39
1,729, $55
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
0 969
V V Sales per Square Foot
July 1, 2008 through August 10, 2010
Average Finished Size = 969 Square Feet
Median Price per
Square Foot = $69
Below Average Homes,
Above Average Price per
Square Foot
Above Average Homes,
Above Average Price per
Square Foot
Above Average Homes,
Below Average Price per
Square Foot
Below Average Homes,
Below Average Price per
Square Foot

20. 0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
25
38
36
28
43
28
17
39
47
48
38
25
23
36
36
41
28
26
28
20
26
23
34
23
25
32
22
23
16
21
18
20
32
19
32
19
19
17
19
22
23
22
18
StandardizedValue per Square Foot StandardizedFinishedSize
Relationship Between Finished Size and Price Per Square Foot
of Valid Sales Between July 1, 2008 and August 10, 2010
of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East Neighborhood
High amount of variability in home size correlated to sale price.

21. Relationship Between Finished Size and Price Per Square Foot
of Valid Sales Between July 1, 2008 and August 10, 2010
of Single-Family Homes in the Churchill East Neighborhood
High amount of variability in home size correlated to sale price.