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FERI TRUST GMBH




                  IN THE JUNGLE OF
                    ALTERNATIVES
                  SELECTION REQUIREMENTS FOR
                         HEDGE FUNDS


                               Antje Biber
                     Managing Partner, Feri Trust GmbH


                   Investment Consultant Summit
                         September 4th 2012
HEDGE FUNDS - A HIGHLY COMPLEX ASSET CLASS




                                             Source: google pictures



© FERI                     2
Hedge Funds

         ....some simple facts




© FERI              3
LET‘S LOOK AT SOME NUMBERS


    Dow Jones Credit Suisse Multi-Strategy Hedge
                                                                                                  MSCI World
                    Fund Index



                            return              Return p.a. Volatility p.a.                  return    Return p.a. Volatility p.a.



YTD                        4.58%                   9.36%         4.32%            YTD 2012   6.29%      12.98%         16.35%

2y                        15.83%                   7.62%         5.39%            2y         25.40%     11.98%         18.26%

3y                        29.17%                   8.91%         4.65%            3y         38.91%     11.58%         17.58%

5y                        13.00%                   2.40%         8.70%            5y         -11.43%     -2.40%        20.89%


10 y                      93.44%                   6.82%         5.81%            10 y       74.69%      5.74%         17.20%




Source: Credit Suisse und PerTrac, : 2002- June 2012

© FERI                                                                        4
THE HEDGE FUND UNIVERSES (OFFSHORE & UCITS) STILL GROWS

   Number of funds: UCITS HF
         500
         450
         400
         350
Anzahl




         300
         250
         200
         150
         100
          50
           0




                           UCITS Long/Short Fonds


               Number of funds / Assets under management
                         Offshore Hedge Funds




© FERI                                               5     Source : Feri, Eurekahedge, BofAML
HAVE HEDGE FUNDS LEARNED AFTER 2008?

                   What did hedge fund manager change after the crisis


                             Einräumung häufigerer
                 higher Liquidity
                            Liquidationsmöglichkeiten
                                                                                                        36%


                 lower Management Fees
                               Senkung der
                                                                                                    31%
                                        Managementgebühren

                 shorter Lock-up periods Fristen
                          Senkung der Lock-Up                                                     27%


                 reduction of performance fee
                         Reduzierung der Performance
                                                                                            16%
                                               Fee

                 managed accounts Managed
                      Angebot gesonderter
                                                                                         13%
                                           Accounts


                 shorter Kürzung der Kündigungsfristen
                         redemption period                                          9%


                 changes of gating rulesder
                              Veränderung
                          Maximalkündigung (Gates)
                                                                                  7%


                 lengthening of lock-upsLock-Up
                           Verlängerung der
                                                                                  7%
                                                Fristen



                    Source: Ernst&Young ‚Restoring the balance‘ 2010 global hedge fund survey.
© FERI                                                    6
Hedge Funds
         ....a single and homogeneous asset class?
                           ....NOT !

                ....a diversifing instrument ?
                         ....absolutely !

© FERI                         7
HEDGE FUND STRATEGY RETURNS ARE NOT CONSISTENT

                                                                 1996           1997          1998           1999           2000           2001           2002          2003          2004           2005           2006           2007           2008           2009          2010          2011          2012 YTD

                                                                                            Managed         Equity       Convertible     Distressed     Managed      Distressed     Distressed    Equity Short     Special                      Managed       Convertible    Special                      Distressed
Convertible                                                   Global Macro Global Macro                                                                                                                                         Global Macro                                              Global Macro
                                                                                            Futures       Long/Short      Arbitrage      Securities     Futures      Securities     Securities       Bias         Situations                    Futures        Arbitrage    Situations                    Securities
Arb.                                                             25.6%        37.1%                                                                                                                                                17.4%                                                     5.98%
                                                                                             20.6%          47.2%          25.6%           20.0%         18.3%         25.1%          15.6%         17.0%           16.4%                        18.3%          47.4%         14.4%                         4.71%
                  Relative Value




                                                               Distressed       Equity        Equity        Special      Equity Short              Equity Short                      Special       Distressed     Distressed      Special      Equity Short Fixed Income                    Equity       Fixed Income
Fixed Income                                                                                                                          Global Macro              Global Macro                                                                                             Global Macro
                                                               Securities     Long/Short    Long/Short     Situations       Bias                      Bias                          Situations     Securities     Securities     Situations       Bias        Arbitrage                    Arbitrage       Arbitrage
Arb.                                                                                                                                     18.4%                     18.0%                                                                                                    13.5%
                                                                 25.5%          21.5%         17.2%          23.0%         15.8%                     18.1%                            14.0%          11.7%          15.6%          16.8%         14.9%         27.4%                        5.00%           3.90%


                                                                Special       Distressed     Equity       Distressed       Equity       Convertible                Equity             Equity         Equity         Equity         Equity        Merger       Distressed Fixed Income Fixed Income Convertible
                                                                                                                                                    Global Macro
Equity Arb.                                                    Situations     Securities    Arbitrage     Securities      Arbitrage      Arbitrage               Long/Short         Long/Short     Long/Short     Long/Short     Long/Short     Arbitrage     Securities   Arbitrage    Arbitrage   Arbitrage
                                                                                                                                                       14.7%
                                                                 22.7%          20.7%        13.3%          22.2%          15.0%          14.6%                    17.3%              11.6%          9.7%           14.4%          13.7%         -3.3%          21.0%       12.5%        4.30%       3.74%


                                                              Convertible      Special       Merger       Convertible      Merger         Equity         Equity        Special                                   Convertible      Equity                        Special      Managed                        Special
                                                                                                                                                                                   Global Macro Global Macro                                   Global Macro                               Equity Short
Risk Arb.                                                      Arbitrage      Situations    Arbitrage      Arbitrage      Arbitrage      Arbitrage      Arbitrage     Situations                                  Arbitrage      Arbitrage                     Situations    Futures                       Situations
                                                                                                                                                                                      8.5%         9.3%                                           -4.6%                                   Bias 2.17%
                                                                17.9%           20.5%         5.6%          16.0%          14.7%           9.3%           7.4%          17.2%                                      14.3%           9.3%                          19.9%        12.2%                          3.12%
                  Event Driven

                                     Annual Return (% p.a.)




                                                                 Equity        Equity       Distressed      Equity         Special      Fixed Income Fixed Income     Managed      Fixed Income     Special                       Merger         Special        Equity      Convertible     Merger
Distressed                                                                                                                                                                                                       Global Macro                                                                              Managed
                                                               Long/Short     Arbitrage     Securities     Arbitrage      Situations      Arbitrage    Arbitrage      Futures        Arbitrage     Situations                    Arbitrage      Situations    Long/Short     Arbitrage     Arbitrage
Sec.                                                                                                                                                                                                                13.5%                                                                                Futures 2.15%
                                                                 17.1%         14.8%          -1.7%         15.3%           11.8%           8.0%         5.8%          14.1%           6.7%           7.2%                         8.8%          -16.3%         19.5%         11.0%         1.19%


                                                                Equity       Convertible                    Merger                        Special      Convertible   Convertible     Equity         Equity         Equity        Distressed        Equity       Merger      Distressed    Convertible       Equity
Special                                                                                  Global Macro                    Global Macro
                                                               Arbitrage      Arbitrage                    Arbitrage                     Situations     Arbitrage     Arbitrage     Arbitrage      Arbitrage      Arbitrage      Securities     Long/Short     Arbitrage    Securities     Arbitrage      Long/Short
Situations                                                                                  -3.6%                           11.7%
                                                                16.6%          14.5%                        13.2%                           6.8%          4.0%         12.9%          6.5%           6.1%          11.2%            8.4%          -19.8%        12.0%         10.3%         0.49%           1.86%


                                                              Fixed Income     Merger      Convertible Fixed Income Fixed Income          Merger        Special        Merger       Managed         Merger       Fixed Income    Managed        Distressed                Equity           Distressed
Equity                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Global Macro                                  Global Macro
                  Equity Hedge




                                                                Arbitrage     Arbitrage     Arbitrage    Arbitrage    Arbitrage          Arbitrage     Situations     Arbitrage     Futures        Arbitrage       Arbitrage     Futures        Securities              Long/Short         Securities
Long/Short                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    11.6%                                         1.52%
                                                                 15.9%          9.8%         -4.4%        12.1%         6.3%               5.7%           1.2%          9.0%         6.0%            3.1%            8.7%         6.0%           -20.5%                   9.28%              -4.19%


                                                                Merger       Fixed Income Equity Short                    Managed        Managed       Distressed Fixed Income       Merger       Fixed Income     Merger       Equity Short Fixed Income       Equity        Merger       Managed          Merger
Equity Short                                                                                           Global Macro
                                                               Arbitrage       Arbitrage     Bias                         Futures        Futures       Securities   Arbitrage       Arbitrage       Arbitrage     Arbitrage        Bias        Arbitrage       Arbitrage     Arbitrage     Futures         Arbitrage
Bias                                                                                                      5.8%
                                                                13.8%            9.3%       -6.0%                          4.2%           1.9%           -0.7%        8.0%            5.5%            0.6%          8.2%           6.0%         -28.8%           4.1%         3.20%         -4.94%          0.05%


                                                               Managed        Managed      Fixed Income    Managed          Equity      Equity Short     Equity        Equity      Convertible     Managed        Managed       Convertible    Convertible     Managed        Equity          Equity        Equity
                  Tactical Trading




Global Macro                                                   Futures        Futures        Arbitrage     Futures        Long/Short       Bias        Long/Short     Arbitrage     Arbitrage      Futures        Futures        Arbitrage      Arbitrage      Futures       Arbitrage     Long/Short      Arbitrage
                                                                12.0%          3.1%            -8.2%        -4.7%           2.1%          -3.6%          -1.6%          7.1%          2.0%          -0.1%          8.0%            5.2%          -31.6%         -6.6%         -0.9%          -6.48%         -2.28%


                                                              Equity Short Equity Short      Special      Equity Short    Distressed       Equity        Merger      Equity Short Equity Short Convertible Equity Short Fixed Income              Equity      Equity Short Equity Short      Special      Equity Short
Managed
                                                                 Bias         Bias          Situations       Bias         Securities     Long/Short     Arbitrage       Bias         Bias       Arbitrage     Bias        Arbitrage             Arbitrage        Bias         Bias         Situations        Bias
Futures
                                                                -5.5%         0.4%            -9.0%         -14.2%           1.9%          -3.7%         -3.5%         -32.6%       -7.7%        -2.6%       -6.6%          3.8%                 -40.3%         -25.0%       -22.5%         -10.85%         -7.62%



Source: Credit Suisse; Data including May 2012




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Source: Credit Suisse 2012
© FERI                                                                                                                                                                      8
OVERVIEW OF HEDGE FUND STRATEGIES


                                  Global Macro
               Tactical Trading   Managed Futures
                                  Other Systematic Trading

                                  Convertible Bond Arbitrage    Diversifying
                                                                 Strategies
                                  Fixed Income Arbitrage
                Relative Value    Equity Arbitage
                                  Capital Structure Arbitrage
                                  Mixed Relative Value


                                  Merger Arbitrage
                                  Special Situations
                 Event Driven     Distressed Securities
                                  Mixed Event Driven            Directional
                                                                Strategies
                                  Equity Hedge Long Bias
                                  Equity Hedge No Bias
                 Equity Hedge     Equity Hedge Short Bias
                                  Mixed Equity Hedge

© FERI                            9
MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: OVERVIEW

 Managed Futures
 -       Systematic Trading modells based on technical signals
 -       Diverse substrategies
          o Trendfollowing / Momentum
          o Countertrend / Mean-reverting
          o Systematic Macro
 -       Mainly directional positions diversified over multiple markets ( also commodities)


 Global Macro
 −       Discretionary trading decisions based on macro economic views

 −       Identification of makroeconomic trends

 −       Diversification of managers through investment focus

 −       Global and regional specialists

 −       „relative Value“ as well as directional positions

© FERI                                                   10
MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: CHARATERISTICS


Characteristics         Managed Futures   Global Macro

Liquid                        +               +
Longterm uncorrelated         +              +/-
Low leverage                  +               +
Diversified                   +              +/-
Trading decisions          systematic     discretionary

Basis                      technical      fundamental




© FERI                         11
MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: OVERVIEW


                  DJ CS Managed Futures Index
   370
                  DJ CS Global Macro Index
                  MSCI World

   320




   270




   220




   170




   120




    70
     Dec 97
     Dez 97   Dec 98
              Dez 98   Dec 99
                       Dez 99   Dec 00
                                Dez 00       Dec 01   Dec 02
                                                      Dez 02   Dec 03
                                                               Dez 03   Dec 04
                                                                        Dez 04   Dec 05
                                                                                 Dez 05    Dec 06   Dec 07
                                                                                                    Dez 07   Dec 08
                                                                                                             Dez 08   Dec 09
                                                                                                                      Dez 09   Dec 10
                                                                                                                               Dez10    Dec 11
                                                                                                                                        Dez 11
                                             Dez 01                                       Dez 06


                                                                                                                                    Quelle: Feri
© FERI                                                                  12
MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: CORRELATION

    Managed Futures have a negative correlation especially in times of equity market crises!

     1                                                                                             170
                 12M Korrelation CS
                  12m correlation:
   0.8            CS Managed Future Index
                 Managed Futures Index
                 (lhs)
                                                                                                   150
   0.6           Korrelation: Langfristiger
                  Correlation:
                 Durchschnitt (lhs)
                  longterm average
   0.4
                                                                                                   130
   0.2

     0                                                                                             110

  -0.2
                                                                                                   90
  -0.4

  -0.6
                                                                                                   70
  -0.8

    -1                                                                                             50
     Dez 98
     Dec 98   Jun 00
               Jun 00    Dez 01
                         Dec 01      Jun 03
                                     Jun 03   Dez 04
                                              Dec 04    Jun 06
                                                        Jun 06   Dez 07
                                                                 Dec 07   Jun 09
                                                                           Jun 09   Dez 10
                                                                                    Dec 10
                                                                                             Quelle: Feri
© FERI                                             13
MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: RETURN IN TIMES
OF CRISES
                              Return in difficult equity markets (1994 - today)

     20%


     15%


     10%


         5%


         0%


     -5%


    -10%


    -15%
                                                                     MSCI World
    -20%                                                             DJ CS Managed Futures Index
                                                                     DJ CS Global Macro Index
    -25%
              Q4 2008 Q3 2002 Q3 2011 Q3 2008 Q3 2001 Q2 2010 Q1 2001 Q1 2009 Q3 1998 Q2 2002 Q1 2008


                                                                                                    Source: Feri
© FERI                                                14
MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: DIVERSIFICATION
 NEEDED
                                                                                                                                                                        Volatile strategies need diversification

        3 month returns on the basis of 420 funds
        Results based on randomly generated Portfolios (320.000 Data)

 1 fund                                                                                                                                                                            10 funds                                                                                                                                                                         Statistical characteristica (Median):
600                                                                                                                                                                               600




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       10 Funds
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2 Funds


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           5 Funds
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1 Fund
500                                                                                                                                                                               500

400                                                                                                                                                                               400

300                                                                                                                                                                               300
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Return p.a.     9,6%       10,3%      10,8%       10,9%
200                                                                                                                                                                               200
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Volatility      20,0%      16,3%      13,3%       12,0%
100                                                                                                                                                                               100

  0                                                                                                                                                                                 0                                                                                                                                                                               Sharpe (2%)     0,38       0,51       0,66        0,74
                            Apr. 01




                                                          Apr. 03




                                                                                        Apr. 05




                                                                                                                      Apr. 07




                                                                                                                                                    Apr. 09




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Apr. 01




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Apr. 03




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Apr. 05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Apr. 07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Apr. 09
        Dez. 99




                                      Dez. 01




                                                                    Dez. 03




                                                                                                  Dez. 05




                                                                                                                                Dez. 07




                                                                                                                                                              Dez. 09




                                                                                                                                                                                          Dez. 99




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Dez. 01




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Dez. 03




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Dez. 05




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Dez. 07




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Dez. 09
                  Aug. 00




                                                Aug. 02




                                                                              Aug. 04




                                                                                                            Aug. 06




                                                                                                                                          Aug. 08




                                                                                                                                                                        Aug. 10




                                                                                                                                                                                                    Aug. 00




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Aug. 02




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Aug. 04




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Aug. 06




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Aug. 08




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Aug. 10
 1 fund                                                                                                                                                                            10 funds                                                                                                                                                                         Probability of 3-month-drawdowns (DD):
35,0%                                                                                                                                                                             35,0%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        10 Fonds
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     1 Fonds


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2 Fonds


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            5 Fonds
30,0%                                                                                                                                                                             30,0%

25,0%                                                                                                                                                                             25,0%

20,0%                                                                                                                                                                             20,0%

15,0%                                                                                                                                                                             15,0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    DD >-5%         17,9%      14,2%      9,8%        7,6%
10,0%                                                                                                                                                                             10,0%

5,0%                                                                                                                                                                              5,0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    DD >-10%        6,9%       3,8%       1,3%        0,6%
0,0%                                                                                                                                                                              0,0%
        -30,0%                 -20,0%                 -10,0%                  0,0%                10,0%               20,0%                  30,0%                                        -30,0%                -20,0%                 -10,0%                   0,0%                10,0%               20,0%                  30,0%


 © FERI                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 15
OVERVIEW OF HEDGE FUND STRATEGIES

                                  Global Macro
               Tactical Trading   Managed Futures
                                  Other Systematic Trading

                                  Convertible Bond Arbitrage    Diversifying
                                                                 Strategies
                                  Fixed Income Arbitrage
                Relative Value    Equity Arbitage
                                  Capital Structure Arbitrage
                                  Mixed Relative Value


                                  Merger Arbitrage
                                  Special Situations
                 Event Driven     Distressed Securities
                                  Mixed Event Driven            Directional
                                                                Strategies
                                  Equity Hedge Long Bias
                                  Equity Hedge No Bias
                 Equity Hedge     Equity Hedge Short Bias
                                  Mixed Equity Hedge

© FERI                            16
PERFORMANCEANALYSIS: EQUITY HEDGE VS. EQUITY LONG
ONLY


                             Equity Hedge Index *                                                           MSCI World



                             Return               Return p.a.           Volatility p.a.                Return    Return p.a.   Volatility p.a.



1- y                        -4.49%                   -4.49%                     7.47%          1- y    -13.54%    -13.54%        20.01%

2- y                         4.14%                   2.05%                      6.78%          2- y    8.47%       4.15%         18.57%

3- y                         9.91%                   3.20%                      6.33%          3- y    11.92%      3.83%         17.88%

5- y                        11.18%                    2.14%                     8.70%          5- y    -33.02%     -7.70%         20.90%

10- y                       86.99%                    6.46%                     7.27%          10- y   11.87%      1.13%          17.22%




Source: * ARIX Equity Hedge Index, Feri und Hedgefund.net, 01. 2002- 05. 2012

© FERI                                                                                    17
DRAWDOWNANALYSIS: EQUITY HEDGE VS. EQUITY LONG
ONLY


                          Equity Hedge Index *                                 MSCI World



                          Drawdown Duration Recovery                       Drawdown Duration Recovery



     DD 1                    -20.05%                13   25         DD 1   -55.51%     16      n.a.



     DD 2                     -8.07%                5    n.a        DD 2   -26.47%     6       15



     DD 3                     -3.96%                1    3          DD 3    -4.51%     2        3


 Source: Feri und Hedgefund.net, 01.2002- 05.2012
 *: ARIX Equity Hedge Index

© FERI                                                         18
10% OF EQUITY HEDGE IN A TRADITIONAL PORTFOLIO

                                                                                                                                     Volatilitätsvergleich
                                     Return comparison
                                       Renditenvergleich                                                                          Volatility comparison
10%                                                                                                       9%

8%                                                                                                        8%

                                                                                                          7%
6%

                                                                                                          6%
4%
                                                                                                          5%
2%
                                                                                                          4%
0%
                                                                                                          3%

-2%                                                                                                       2%

-4%                                                                                                       1%

                                                                                                          0%
-6%

-8%


                                                                                                                                                          Equity Hedge Index
                                                                                                                             80%Bonds, 10% Equities, 10% ARIX Equity Hedge

                                                                                                                             80%Bonds, 20% Equities
                                                      Equity Hedge Index
                         80%Bonds, 10% Equities, 10% ARIX Equity Hedge

                         80%Bonds, 20% Equities



  10 % of Equity Hedge allocation leads to higher returns and lower volatility !
      Source: Feri und Hedgefund.net HF Index: ARIX Equity Hedge , „Bonds“ Barclays Aggregate Bond Index „Equities“ MSCI World


 © FERI                                                                                          19
Hedge Funds
                    ....good or bad ?

                   ... THE JUNGLE ?

         ... And how can we shed light on them ?

© FERI                       20
CRITICAL ASPECTS OF HEDGE FUND SELECTION


         1. Returns                  persistance, analysis...

         2. Illquidity               redemption restrictions...

         3. Benchmarking             survivorship bias...

         4. Regulation               operational risk...

         5. Transparency             managers...




© FERI                          21
SPOT LIGHT INTO THE QUANT JUNGLE: FACTOR ANALYSIS


Current factors used (240):
 35 Commodities factors
 6 Credit factors
 7 Currency factors
 31 Emerging Markets factors
 56 Equity factors
 32 Fixed Income factors
 31 HF Indices
 9 Mortgage factors
 14 Non-linear payoffs
 9 Real Estate factors
 10 Volatility factors
Autocorrelation and non linear performance
components considered




© FERI                                       22
HEDGE FUND MANAGERS: ....THEN A MIRACLE OCCURS




                                           Source: google pictures



© FERI                     23
HEDGE FUND RISK ANALYSIS – AN OVERVIEW


                                        1. Administrative risks:   audit and controlling requirements
                                                                   (registration, official audit, independent pricing etc.)
               Qualitative Evaluation




                                        2. Personal risks:         background checks for all fund managers
                                                                   (education, former employers, clients etc.)

                                        3. Operational risks:      financial control, back office, trade execution,
                                                                   liquidity terms and lock-up periods

                                        4. Management risks:       detailed and appropriate risk management systems
                                                                   (personally checked !)
    Analysis
     Quant.




                                        5. Portfolio risks:        liquidity, leverage, market risk exposures, etc.




© FERI                                                                   24
QUALITATIVE EVALTUATION CRITERIA


                                                    Hedge Fund Evaluation System

             Risk                       Strategy                    Inst. Aspects                     Management       Economics
    • Risk Management             • Concept                       • Organizational               • Ability/Profile   • Fund cash flows
      Approach                                                      structure
                                  • Consistency                                                  • Resources         • Costs
    • Systems                                                     • Customer
                                  • Capacity                                                     • Motivation
                                                                    Relations
    • Independent Risk
      Manager                                                     • Operations
    • Market exposure


The analysis and the evaluation prosess must be consistent, transparent, independent from the analyst !



   Content of RatingBase System:
          For each fund 50 basic information criteria and 400 valuation criteria
          60 valuation criteria are rating criteria
          All of these rating criteria are grouped into 5 rating segments
          These rating segments are weighted as shown and finally consolidated into the fund rating



© FERI                                                                        25
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS:
ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK



         Risk                                                           Strategy

         Risk – Risk Management Approach                                Strategy – Concept
         - How does the manager try to avoid getting into difficult     - Competitive advantage?
           situations?                                                  - Structured investment process?
                                                                        - Match of advantage / uniqueness with investment
         Risk – Risk Management Systems                                   process?
         - Will adverse moves be picked up quickly enough?
                                                                        Strategy – Consistency
         Risk – Independent Risk Manager                                - Has the manager left the area of his “edge”?
         - Is there a RM who will be able to stop out (or contain in    - To which extent was the strategy changed?
           any other way) the losing position?                          - Is the change likely to have a positive or negative
         - Uniqueness                                                     impact on the future performance of the fund?

         Risk – Market Exposure                                         Strategy – Capacity
         - What is the maximum loss likely to be suffered in normal     - Approximate true capacity of the fund/strategy?
           / extreme market based on market exposure / position         - Is the manager’s capacity estimation realistic?
           concentration / leverage / illiquidity of the book?          - Is the manager operating above his capacity?

                                                                        Strategy – Trading
                                                                        - Match of trade execution process with strategy?




© FERI                                                                 26
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS:
ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK


  Inst. Aspects                               Management                                           Economics

  Inst. Aspects –                             Management – Ability / Profile                       Economics – Fund Cash Flow
  Organizational Structure                    - Stability of team                                  - Are there any dangers of the fund
  - Quality and independence of the           - Relevance of work experience/education               being squeezed out by redemptions?
    business partners: administrator,         - Length of experience in industry
    prime broker, and auditor of the fund                                                          Economics – Costs
                                              Management – Resources                               - Is the cost structure excessive with
  Inst. Aspects – Customer                    - How many investment professionals / other            respect to management motivation
  Relations Management                          staff?                                               and strategy?
  - Is the report sufficient to monitor the   - Is the staff concentrated on the fund or also
    fund?                                       doing other things?
                                              - Is the staffing sufficient to support the
                                                scope of the strategy?
  Inst. Aspects – Operations
  - Is a proper financial control
    guaranteed by the fund’s structure        Management – Motivation
    and its back office operations?           - Is the staff (incl. analysts) directly linked to
                                                the success of the fund?
                                              - Is the manager hurt if he makes a big loss?
                                              - How is the manager’s other wealth
                                                distributed / is he focused on the fund?




© FERI                                                                27
QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS: DATABASE & CUSTOMIZED QUESTIONNAIRES


All information (up to
400 data per fund) is
entered into a
database in a
comprehensive
manner


60 valuation criteria
are rating criteria
leads to a final
internal rating




© FERI                                 28
EXTENSIVE DOCUMENTATION OF EVERY PROCESS STEP

         Contact Records            Meeting Notes            Investment Proposals




          ⇒Transparency and objectivity of evaluation is needed

          For every fund & every fund manager
© FERI                                     29
PORTFOLIO RISKS REPORTING FOR A MULTI STRATEGY HF
PORTFOLIO

 Risk reports show parameters of                                                                                     Systematic risk (Beta, style and factor exposures)
 strategy specific risks in the portfolio                                                                            are monitored for each portfolio on a monthly basis

                                                                                                                                                                        Factor
                                                                                                                                                                       exposure      VaR     VaR max
   VaR breakdown per strategy:                                                                                                       Type A Model                                   1.86%        2.56%
                                                                               Portfolio VaR (95%):     4.16%        MSCI World                                          0.258
                    Style       Weight             VaR      VaR weight                                               Lehman Aggregate Bond Index                         0.167
                                                                                                                     Goldman Sachs Commodity US $ DRI Index              0.052
                      ED           14%           153'459         0.60%
                                                                                    VaR weight
                      EH           51%           483'388         1.89%                                                               Type B Model                                   1.85%         2.25%
                      RV           18%           105'628         0.41%                                               CSFB/Tremont   Convertible Arbitrage Index          -0.229
                                                                                                  ED
                      TT           17%           322'428         1.26%                           14%                 CSFB/Tremont   Distressed Index                      0.129
                                                                              TT                                     CSFB/Tremont   Equity Market Neutral Index           0.149
                                                                             30%                                     CSFB/Tremont   Event Driven Index                    0.302
                    Sum           100%         1'064'903         4.16%                                               CSFB/Tremont   Fixed Income Arbitrage Index         -0.002
                                                                                                                     CSFB/Tremont   Global Macro Index                    0.044
                                                                                                                     CSFB/Tremont   Long/Short Equity Index               0.091
                                                                                                                     CSFB/Tremont   Managed Futures Index                 0.027
   Factor exposure                                                             RV                                    CSFB/Tremont   Risk Arbitrage Index                  0.256
                                                                                                   EH
                                                                              10%
                                                                                                  46%
                              factor                       exposure
           MSCI World                                                 0.26                                                                                                 Factor
                                                                                                                                                                         exposure    VaR    VaR max
           Lehman Aggregate Bond Index                                0.17      Strategy weight                                        Unrestricted Model                           2.33%       3.61%
           Goldman Sachs Commodity US $ DRI Index                     0.05                                               10 year Bund yield*                               -0.821
                                                                                                                         10 year Japan yield*                              0.598
                                                                                                                         10 year Treasury yield*                           0.179
   Style exposure                                                               TT            ED                         10-Year Treasury Benchmark                        0.098
                                                                                             14%                         3 months T-Bill yield*                            -0.012
                                                                               17%                                       Amex Oil Index                                    0.034
                             HF Index                      exposure                                                      DAX 30                                            0.013
                                                                                                                         DJ Stoxx 600                                      0.010
           CSFB/Tremont Convertible Arbitrage Index               -0.23                                                  eur_tr                                            0.005
                                                                              RV
           CSFB/Tremont Distressed Index                           0.13                                                  Fama/French SMB                                   0.017
                                                                             18%                                         Federal Reserve Trade weighted value of US Dollar 0.075
           CSFB/Tremont Equity Market Neutral Index                   0.15                                               FTSE All Shares                                   -0.012
           CSFB/Tremont Event Driven Index                            0.30                        EH                     FTSE Small Caps                                   0.037
                                                                                                                         High Yield factor                                 0.023
           CSFB/Tremont Fixed Income Arbitrage Index                  0.00                       51%                     Investment grade spread*                          0.100
           CSFB/Tremont Global Macro Index                            0.04                                               Lehman High Yield Credit Bond Index               0.023
                                                                                                                         MSCI Europe Small Caps                            0.012
           CSFB/Tremont Long/Short Equity Index                       0.09                                               MSCI World                                        0.020
           CSFB/Tremont Managed Futures Index                         0.03                                               MSCI World Metals & Mining USD                    0.018
                                                                                                                         Realized S&P 500 volatility change                -0.057
           CSFB/Tremont Risk Arbitrage Index                          0.26                                               S&P 500                                           0.074
                                                                                                                         S&P/TSX OIL & GAS INDEX                           0.002




© FERI                                                                                                          30
RÉSUMÉ:

 Hedge Funds....
 ...is the name of a group of various strategies with vastly different characteristics

 ...all strategies should be analyzed and allocated individually

 ...quantitative and qualitative analysis of Hedge Funds require an adaption of
 •          research processes
 •          evaluation parameters
 •          risk monitoring


 ...can deliver diversification and alpha for institutional portfolios ...


 But remember: “There is no such thing as a free lunch!”




© FERI                                           31
DISCLAIMER




                         Any questions...?
                         Thank you for your attention

                                                                                                                                                        Feri Trust GmbH
                                                                                                                                                        Haus am Park
                                                                                                                                                        Rathausplatz 8-10
                                                                                                                                                        61348 Bad Homburg


This presentation is for informational purposes only. An investor should consult and review the appropriate offering memorandum before making any investment decisions.
This presentation does not constitute an offer to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such an offer.
Prospective investors should inform themselves and take appropriate advice as to any applicable legal requirements and any applicable taxation and exchange control regulations in
the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant to the subscription, purchase, holding, exchange, redemption or disposal of any investments.
Past performance is not a guide to future performance and the value of investments and the income derived from them can go down as well as up. Future returns are not guaranteed
and a loss of principal may occur.
Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. No part of this material may be 1.) Copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means;
or 2.) redistributed without Feri Trusts‘ (FT) prior written consent.

© FERI                                                                                     32

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In the Jungle of Alternatives - Presentation: Antje Biber Managing Partner, Feri Trust GmbH - Investments Summit

  • 1. FERI TRUST GMBH IN THE JUNGLE OF ALTERNATIVES SELECTION REQUIREMENTS FOR HEDGE FUNDS Antje Biber Managing Partner, Feri Trust GmbH Investment Consultant Summit September 4th 2012
  • 2. HEDGE FUNDS - A HIGHLY COMPLEX ASSET CLASS Source: google pictures © FERI 2
  • 3. Hedge Funds ....some simple facts © FERI 3
  • 4. LET‘S LOOK AT SOME NUMBERS Dow Jones Credit Suisse Multi-Strategy Hedge MSCI World Fund Index return Return p.a. Volatility p.a. return Return p.a. Volatility p.a. YTD 4.58% 9.36% 4.32% YTD 2012 6.29% 12.98% 16.35% 2y 15.83% 7.62% 5.39% 2y 25.40% 11.98% 18.26% 3y 29.17% 8.91% 4.65% 3y 38.91% 11.58% 17.58% 5y 13.00% 2.40% 8.70% 5y -11.43% -2.40% 20.89% 10 y 93.44% 6.82% 5.81% 10 y 74.69% 5.74% 17.20% Source: Credit Suisse und PerTrac, : 2002- June 2012 © FERI 4
  • 5. THE HEDGE FUND UNIVERSES (OFFSHORE & UCITS) STILL GROWS Number of funds: UCITS HF 500 450 400 350 Anzahl 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 UCITS Long/Short Fonds Number of funds / Assets under management Offshore Hedge Funds © FERI 5 Source : Feri, Eurekahedge, BofAML
  • 6. HAVE HEDGE FUNDS LEARNED AFTER 2008? What did hedge fund manager change after the crisis Einräumung häufigerer higher Liquidity Liquidationsmöglichkeiten 36% lower Management Fees Senkung der 31% Managementgebühren shorter Lock-up periods Fristen Senkung der Lock-Up 27% reduction of performance fee Reduzierung der Performance 16% Fee managed accounts Managed Angebot gesonderter 13% Accounts shorter Kürzung der Kündigungsfristen redemption period 9% changes of gating rulesder Veränderung Maximalkündigung (Gates) 7% lengthening of lock-upsLock-Up Verlängerung der 7% Fristen Source: Ernst&Young ‚Restoring the balance‘ 2010 global hedge fund survey. © FERI 6
  • 7. Hedge Funds ....a single and homogeneous asset class? ....NOT ! ....a diversifing instrument ? ....absolutely ! © FERI 7
  • 8. HEDGE FUND STRATEGY RETURNS ARE NOT CONSISTENT 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD Managed Equity Convertible Distressed Managed Distressed Distressed Equity Short Special Managed Convertible Special Distressed Convertible Global Macro Global Macro Global Macro Global Macro Futures Long/Short Arbitrage Securities Futures Securities Securities Bias Situations Futures Arbitrage Situations Securities Arb. 25.6% 37.1% 17.4% 5.98% 20.6% 47.2% 25.6% 20.0% 18.3% 25.1% 15.6% 17.0% 16.4% 18.3% 47.4% 14.4% 4.71% Relative Value Distressed Equity Equity Special Equity Short Equity Short Special Distressed Distressed Special Equity Short Fixed Income Equity Fixed Income Fixed Income Global Macro Global Macro Global Macro Securities Long/Short Long/Short Situations Bias Bias Situations Securities Securities Situations Bias Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Arb. 18.4% 18.0% 13.5% 25.5% 21.5% 17.2% 23.0% 15.8% 18.1% 14.0% 11.7% 15.6% 16.8% 14.9% 27.4% 5.00% 3.90% Special Distressed Equity Distressed Equity Convertible Equity Equity Equity Equity Equity Merger Distressed Fixed Income Fixed Income Convertible Global Macro Equity Arb. Situations Securities Arbitrage Securities Arbitrage Arbitrage Long/Short Long/Short Long/Short Long/Short Long/Short Arbitrage Securities Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage 14.7% 22.7% 20.7% 13.3% 22.2% 15.0% 14.6% 17.3% 11.6% 9.7% 14.4% 13.7% -3.3% 21.0% 12.5% 4.30% 3.74% Convertible Special Merger Convertible Merger Equity Equity Special Convertible Equity Special Managed Special Global Macro Global Macro Global Macro Equity Short Risk Arb. Arbitrage Situations Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Situations Arbitrage Arbitrage Situations Futures Situations 8.5% 9.3% -4.6% Bias 2.17% 17.9% 20.5% 5.6% 16.0% 14.7% 9.3% 7.4% 17.2% 14.3% 9.3% 19.9% 12.2% 3.12% Event Driven Annual Return (% p.a.) Equity Equity Distressed Equity Special Fixed Income Fixed Income Managed Fixed Income Special Merger Special Equity Convertible Merger Distressed Global Macro Managed Long/Short Arbitrage Securities Arbitrage Situations Arbitrage Arbitrage Futures Arbitrage Situations Arbitrage Situations Long/Short Arbitrage Arbitrage Sec. 13.5% Futures 2.15% 17.1% 14.8% -1.7% 15.3% 11.8% 8.0% 5.8% 14.1% 6.7% 7.2% 8.8% -16.3% 19.5% 11.0% 1.19% Equity Convertible Merger Special Convertible Convertible Equity Equity Equity Distressed Equity Merger Distressed Convertible Equity Special Global Macro Global Macro Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Situations Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Securities Long/Short Arbitrage Securities Arbitrage Long/Short Situations -3.6% 11.7% 16.6% 14.5% 13.2% 6.8% 4.0% 12.9% 6.5% 6.1% 11.2% 8.4% -19.8% 12.0% 10.3% 0.49% 1.86% Fixed Income Merger Convertible Fixed Income Fixed Income Merger Special Merger Managed Merger Fixed Income Managed Distressed Equity Distressed Equity Global Macro Global Macro Equity Hedge Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Situations Arbitrage Futures Arbitrage Arbitrage Futures Securities Long/Short Securities Long/Short 11.6% 1.52% 15.9% 9.8% -4.4% 12.1% 6.3% 5.7% 1.2% 9.0% 6.0% 3.1% 8.7% 6.0% -20.5% 9.28% -4.19% Merger Fixed Income Equity Short Managed Managed Distressed Fixed Income Merger Fixed Income Merger Equity Short Fixed Income Equity Merger Managed Merger Equity Short Global Macro Arbitrage Arbitrage Bias Futures Futures Securities Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Bias Arbitrage Arbitrage Arbitrage Futures Arbitrage Bias 5.8% 13.8% 9.3% -6.0% 4.2% 1.9% -0.7% 8.0% 5.5% 0.6% 8.2% 6.0% -28.8% 4.1% 3.20% -4.94% 0.05% Managed Managed Fixed Income Managed Equity Equity Short Equity Equity Convertible Managed Managed Convertible Convertible Managed Equity Equity Equity Tactical Trading Global Macro Futures Futures Arbitrage Futures Long/Short Bias Long/Short Arbitrage Arbitrage Futures Futures Arbitrage Arbitrage Futures Arbitrage Long/Short Arbitrage 12.0% 3.1% -8.2% -4.7% 2.1% -3.6% -1.6% 7.1% 2.0% -0.1% 8.0% 5.2% -31.6% -6.6% -0.9% -6.48% -2.28% Equity Short Equity Short Special Equity Short Distressed Equity Merger Equity Short Equity Short Convertible Equity Short Fixed Income Equity Equity Short Equity Short Special Equity Short Managed Bias Bias Situations Bias Securities Long/Short Arbitrage Bias Bias Arbitrage Bias Arbitrage Arbitrage Bias Bias Situations Bias Futures -5.5% 0.4% -9.0% -14.2% 1.9% -3.7% -3.5% -32.6% -7.7% -2.6% -6.6% 3.8% -40.3% -25.0% -22.5% -10.85% -7.62% Source: Credit Suisse; Data including May 2012 Source: Credit Suisse 2012 © FERI 8
  • 9. OVERVIEW OF HEDGE FUND STRATEGIES Global Macro Tactical Trading Managed Futures Other Systematic Trading Convertible Bond Arbitrage Diversifying Strategies Fixed Income Arbitrage Relative Value Equity Arbitage Capital Structure Arbitrage Mixed Relative Value Merger Arbitrage Special Situations Event Driven Distressed Securities Mixed Event Driven Directional Strategies Equity Hedge Long Bias Equity Hedge No Bias Equity Hedge Equity Hedge Short Bias Mixed Equity Hedge © FERI 9
  • 10. MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: OVERVIEW Managed Futures - Systematic Trading modells based on technical signals - Diverse substrategies o Trendfollowing / Momentum o Countertrend / Mean-reverting o Systematic Macro - Mainly directional positions diversified over multiple markets ( also commodities) Global Macro − Discretionary trading decisions based on macro economic views − Identification of makroeconomic trends − Diversification of managers through investment focus − Global and regional specialists − „relative Value“ as well as directional positions © FERI 10
  • 11. MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: CHARATERISTICS Characteristics Managed Futures Global Macro Liquid + + Longterm uncorrelated + +/- Low leverage + + Diversified + +/- Trading decisions systematic discretionary Basis technical fundamental © FERI 11
  • 12. MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: OVERVIEW DJ CS Managed Futures Index 370 DJ CS Global Macro Index MSCI World 320 270 220 170 120 70 Dec 97 Dez 97 Dec 98 Dez 98 Dec 99 Dez 99 Dec 00 Dez 00 Dec 01 Dec 02 Dez 02 Dec 03 Dez 03 Dec 04 Dez 04 Dec 05 Dez 05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dez 07 Dec 08 Dez 08 Dec 09 Dez 09 Dec 10 Dez10 Dec 11 Dez 11 Dez 01 Dez 06 Quelle: Feri © FERI 12
  • 13. MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: CORRELATION Managed Futures have a negative correlation especially in times of equity market crises! 1 170 12M Korrelation CS 12m correlation: 0.8 CS Managed Future Index Managed Futures Index (lhs) 150 0.6 Korrelation: Langfristiger Correlation: Durchschnitt (lhs) longterm average 0.4 130 0.2 0 110 -0.2 90 -0.4 -0.6 70 -0.8 -1 50 Dez 98 Dec 98 Jun 00 Jun 00 Dez 01 Dec 01 Jun 03 Jun 03 Dez 04 Dec 04 Jun 06 Jun 06 Dez 07 Dec 07 Jun 09 Jun 09 Dez 10 Dec 10 Quelle: Feri © FERI 13
  • 14. MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: RETURN IN TIMES OF CRISES Return in difficult equity markets (1994 - today) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% MSCI World -20% DJ CS Managed Futures Index DJ CS Global Macro Index -25% Q4 2008 Q3 2002 Q3 2011 Q3 2008 Q3 2001 Q2 2010 Q1 2001 Q1 2009 Q3 1998 Q2 2002 Q1 2008 Source: Feri © FERI 14
  • 15. MANAGED FUTURES & GLOBAL MACRO: DIVERSIFICATION NEEDED Volatile strategies need diversification 3 month returns on the basis of 420 funds Results based on randomly generated Portfolios (320.000 Data) 1 fund 10 funds Statistical characteristica (Median): 600 600 10 Funds 2 Funds 5 Funds 1 Fund 500 500 400 400 300 300 Return p.a. 9,6% 10,3% 10,8% 10,9% 200 200 Volatility 20,0% 16,3% 13,3% 12,0% 100 100 0 0 Sharpe (2%) 0,38 0,51 0,66 0,74 Apr. 01 Apr. 03 Apr. 05 Apr. 07 Apr. 09 Apr. 01 Apr. 03 Apr. 05 Apr. 07 Apr. 09 Dez. 99 Dez. 01 Dez. 03 Dez. 05 Dez. 07 Dez. 09 Dez. 99 Dez. 01 Dez. 03 Dez. 05 Dez. 07 Dez. 09 Aug. 00 Aug. 02 Aug. 04 Aug. 06 Aug. 08 Aug. 10 Aug. 00 Aug. 02 Aug. 04 Aug. 06 Aug. 08 Aug. 10 1 fund 10 funds Probability of 3-month-drawdowns (DD): 35,0% 35,0% 10 Fonds 1 Fonds 2 Fonds 5 Fonds 30,0% 30,0% 25,0% 25,0% 20,0% 20,0% 15,0% 15,0% DD >-5% 17,9% 14,2% 9,8% 7,6% 10,0% 10,0% 5,0% 5,0% DD >-10% 6,9% 3,8% 1,3% 0,6% 0,0% 0,0% -30,0% -20,0% -10,0% 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% -30,0% -20,0% -10,0% 0,0% 10,0% 20,0% 30,0% © FERI 15
  • 16. OVERVIEW OF HEDGE FUND STRATEGIES Global Macro Tactical Trading Managed Futures Other Systematic Trading Convertible Bond Arbitrage Diversifying Strategies Fixed Income Arbitrage Relative Value Equity Arbitage Capital Structure Arbitrage Mixed Relative Value Merger Arbitrage Special Situations Event Driven Distressed Securities Mixed Event Driven Directional Strategies Equity Hedge Long Bias Equity Hedge No Bias Equity Hedge Equity Hedge Short Bias Mixed Equity Hedge © FERI 16
  • 17. PERFORMANCEANALYSIS: EQUITY HEDGE VS. EQUITY LONG ONLY Equity Hedge Index * MSCI World Return Return p.a. Volatility p.a. Return Return p.a. Volatility p.a. 1- y -4.49% -4.49% 7.47% 1- y -13.54% -13.54% 20.01% 2- y 4.14% 2.05% 6.78% 2- y 8.47% 4.15% 18.57% 3- y 9.91% 3.20% 6.33% 3- y 11.92% 3.83% 17.88% 5- y 11.18% 2.14% 8.70% 5- y -33.02% -7.70% 20.90% 10- y 86.99% 6.46% 7.27% 10- y 11.87% 1.13% 17.22% Source: * ARIX Equity Hedge Index, Feri und Hedgefund.net, 01. 2002- 05. 2012 © FERI 17
  • 18. DRAWDOWNANALYSIS: EQUITY HEDGE VS. EQUITY LONG ONLY Equity Hedge Index * MSCI World Drawdown Duration Recovery Drawdown Duration Recovery DD 1 -20.05% 13 25 DD 1 -55.51% 16 n.a. DD 2 -8.07% 5 n.a DD 2 -26.47% 6 15 DD 3 -3.96% 1 3 DD 3 -4.51% 2 3 Source: Feri und Hedgefund.net, 01.2002- 05.2012 *: ARIX Equity Hedge Index © FERI 18
  • 19. 10% OF EQUITY HEDGE IN A TRADITIONAL PORTFOLIO Volatilitätsvergleich Return comparison Renditenvergleich Volatility comparison 10% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 6% 4% 5% 2% 4% 0% 3% -2% 2% -4% 1% 0% -6% -8% Equity Hedge Index 80%Bonds, 10% Equities, 10% ARIX Equity Hedge 80%Bonds, 20% Equities Equity Hedge Index 80%Bonds, 10% Equities, 10% ARIX Equity Hedge 80%Bonds, 20% Equities 10 % of Equity Hedge allocation leads to higher returns and lower volatility ! Source: Feri und Hedgefund.net HF Index: ARIX Equity Hedge , „Bonds“ Barclays Aggregate Bond Index „Equities“ MSCI World © FERI 19
  • 20. Hedge Funds ....good or bad ? ... THE JUNGLE ? ... And how can we shed light on them ? © FERI 20
  • 21. CRITICAL ASPECTS OF HEDGE FUND SELECTION 1. Returns persistance, analysis... 2. Illquidity redemption restrictions... 3. Benchmarking survivorship bias... 4. Regulation operational risk... 5. Transparency managers... © FERI 21
  • 22. SPOT LIGHT INTO THE QUANT JUNGLE: FACTOR ANALYSIS Current factors used (240): 35 Commodities factors 6 Credit factors 7 Currency factors 31 Emerging Markets factors 56 Equity factors 32 Fixed Income factors 31 HF Indices 9 Mortgage factors 14 Non-linear payoffs 9 Real Estate factors 10 Volatility factors Autocorrelation and non linear performance components considered © FERI 22
  • 23. HEDGE FUND MANAGERS: ....THEN A MIRACLE OCCURS Source: google pictures © FERI 23
  • 24. HEDGE FUND RISK ANALYSIS – AN OVERVIEW 1. Administrative risks: audit and controlling requirements (registration, official audit, independent pricing etc.) Qualitative Evaluation 2. Personal risks: background checks for all fund managers (education, former employers, clients etc.) 3. Operational risks: financial control, back office, trade execution, liquidity terms and lock-up periods 4. Management risks: detailed and appropriate risk management systems (personally checked !) Analysis Quant. 5. Portfolio risks: liquidity, leverage, market risk exposures, etc. © FERI 24
  • 25. QUALITATIVE EVALTUATION CRITERIA Hedge Fund Evaluation System Risk Strategy Inst. Aspects Management Economics • Risk Management • Concept • Organizational • Ability/Profile • Fund cash flows Approach structure • Consistency • Resources • Costs • Systems • Customer • Capacity • Motivation Relations • Independent Risk Manager • Operations • Market exposure The analysis and the evaluation prosess must be consistent, transparent, independent from the analyst ! Content of RatingBase System: For each fund 50 basic information criteria and 400 valuation criteria 60 valuation criteria are rating criteria All of these rating criteria are grouped into 5 rating segments These rating segments are weighted as shown and finally consolidated into the fund rating © FERI 25
  • 26. QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS: ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK Risk Strategy Risk – Risk Management Approach Strategy – Concept - How does the manager try to avoid getting into difficult - Competitive advantage? situations? - Structured investment process? - Match of advantage / uniqueness with investment Risk – Risk Management Systems process? - Will adverse moves be picked up quickly enough? Strategy – Consistency Risk – Independent Risk Manager - Has the manager left the area of his “edge”? - Is there a RM who will be able to stop out (or contain in - To which extent was the strategy changed? any other way) the losing position? - Is the change likely to have a positive or negative - Uniqueness impact on the future performance of the fund? Risk – Market Exposure Strategy – Capacity - What is the maximum loss likely to be suffered in normal - Approximate true capacity of the fund/strategy? / extreme market based on market exposure / position - Is the manager’s capacity estimation realistic? concentration / leverage / illiquidity of the book? - Is the manager operating above his capacity? Strategy – Trading - Match of trade execution process with strategy? © FERI 26
  • 27. QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS: ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK Inst. Aspects Management Economics Inst. Aspects – Management – Ability / Profile Economics – Fund Cash Flow Organizational Structure - Stability of team - Are there any dangers of the fund - Quality and independence of the - Relevance of work experience/education being squeezed out by redemptions? business partners: administrator, - Length of experience in industry prime broker, and auditor of the fund Economics – Costs Management – Resources - Is the cost structure excessive with Inst. Aspects – Customer - How many investment professionals / other respect to management motivation Relations Management staff? and strategy? - Is the report sufficient to monitor the - Is the staff concentrated on the fund or also fund? doing other things? - Is the staffing sufficient to support the scope of the strategy? Inst. Aspects – Operations - Is a proper financial control guaranteed by the fund’s structure Management – Motivation and its back office operations? - Is the staff (incl. analysts) directly linked to the success of the fund? - Is the manager hurt if he makes a big loss? - How is the manager’s other wealth distributed / is he focused on the fund? © FERI 27
  • 28. QUALITATIVE ANALYSIS: DATABASE & CUSTOMIZED QUESTIONNAIRES All information (up to 400 data per fund) is entered into a database in a comprehensive manner 60 valuation criteria are rating criteria leads to a final internal rating © FERI 28
  • 29. EXTENSIVE DOCUMENTATION OF EVERY PROCESS STEP Contact Records Meeting Notes Investment Proposals ⇒Transparency and objectivity of evaluation is needed For every fund & every fund manager © FERI 29
  • 30. PORTFOLIO RISKS REPORTING FOR A MULTI STRATEGY HF PORTFOLIO Risk reports show parameters of Systematic risk (Beta, style and factor exposures) strategy specific risks in the portfolio are monitored for each portfolio on a monthly basis Factor exposure VaR VaR max VaR breakdown per strategy: Type A Model 1.86% 2.56% Portfolio VaR (95%): 4.16% MSCI World 0.258 Style Weight VaR VaR weight Lehman Aggregate Bond Index 0.167 Goldman Sachs Commodity US $ DRI Index 0.052 ED 14% 153'459 0.60% VaR weight EH 51% 483'388 1.89% Type B Model 1.85% 2.25% RV 18% 105'628 0.41% CSFB/Tremont Convertible Arbitrage Index -0.229 ED TT 17% 322'428 1.26% 14% CSFB/Tremont Distressed Index 0.129 TT CSFB/Tremont Equity Market Neutral Index 0.149 30% CSFB/Tremont Event Driven Index 0.302 Sum 100% 1'064'903 4.16% CSFB/Tremont Fixed Income Arbitrage Index -0.002 CSFB/Tremont Global Macro Index 0.044 CSFB/Tremont Long/Short Equity Index 0.091 CSFB/Tremont Managed Futures Index 0.027 Factor exposure RV CSFB/Tremont Risk Arbitrage Index 0.256 EH 10% 46% factor exposure MSCI World 0.26 Factor exposure VaR VaR max Lehman Aggregate Bond Index 0.17 Strategy weight Unrestricted Model 2.33% 3.61% Goldman Sachs Commodity US $ DRI Index 0.05 10 year Bund yield* -0.821 10 year Japan yield* 0.598 10 year Treasury yield* 0.179 Style exposure TT ED 10-Year Treasury Benchmark 0.098 14% 3 months T-Bill yield* -0.012 17% Amex Oil Index 0.034 HF Index exposure DAX 30 0.013 DJ Stoxx 600 0.010 CSFB/Tremont Convertible Arbitrage Index -0.23 eur_tr 0.005 RV CSFB/Tremont Distressed Index 0.13 Fama/French SMB 0.017 18% Federal Reserve Trade weighted value of US Dollar 0.075 CSFB/Tremont Equity Market Neutral Index 0.15 FTSE All Shares -0.012 CSFB/Tremont Event Driven Index 0.30 EH FTSE Small Caps 0.037 High Yield factor 0.023 CSFB/Tremont Fixed Income Arbitrage Index 0.00 51% Investment grade spread* 0.100 CSFB/Tremont Global Macro Index 0.04 Lehman High Yield Credit Bond Index 0.023 MSCI Europe Small Caps 0.012 CSFB/Tremont Long/Short Equity Index 0.09 MSCI World 0.020 CSFB/Tremont Managed Futures Index 0.03 MSCI World Metals & Mining USD 0.018 Realized S&P 500 volatility change -0.057 CSFB/Tremont Risk Arbitrage Index 0.26 S&P 500 0.074 S&P/TSX OIL & GAS INDEX 0.002 © FERI 30
  • 31. RÉSUMÉ: Hedge Funds.... ...is the name of a group of various strategies with vastly different characteristics ...all strategies should be analyzed and allocated individually ...quantitative and qualitative analysis of Hedge Funds require an adaption of • research processes • evaluation parameters • risk monitoring ...can deliver diversification and alpha for institutional portfolios ... But remember: “There is no such thing as a free lunch!” © FERI 31
  • 32. DISCLAIMER Any questions...? Thank you for your attention Feri Trust GmbH Haus am Park Rathausplatz 8-10 61348 Bad Homburg This presentation is for informational purposes only. An investor should consult and review the appropriate offering memorandum before making any investment decisions. This presentation does not constitute an offer to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such an offer. Prospective investors should inform themselves and take appropriate advice as to any applicable legal requirements and any applicable taxation and exchange control regulations in the countries of their citizenship, residence or domicile which might be relevant to the subscription, purchase, holding, exchange, redemption or disposal of any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance and the value of investments and the income derived from them can go down as well as up. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. Opinions expressed are current opinions as of the date appearing in this material only. No part of this material may be 1.) Copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means; or 2.) redistributed without Feri Trusts‘ (FT) prior written consent. © FERI 32