MNI India Consumer Report 2014-03

MNI India Consumer Report
March 2014
Insight and data for better decisions

MNI India Consumer Report - March 20142
About MNI Indicators
Insight and data for better decisions
MNI Indicators offers unique macro-economic data
and insight to businesses and the investment
community. We produce data and intelligence that is
unbiased, pertinent and responsive. Our data moves
markets.
Specialising in business and consumer focused
macro-economic reports, we give our customers the
ability to make timely and relevant decisions. We
strive to provide up-to-date information on business
and consumer confidence on the economy.
MNI Indicators publishes data on a monthly basis.
Our indicators are based on a unique and proprietary
methodology and are designed to present an advance
picture of the economic landscape as perceived by
businesses and consumers every month.
Our monthly reports explore attitudes, perspectives
and confidence across different countries and regions.
They deliver in-depth analysis, highlight changing
patterns and how these can affect potential
developments in business and consumer activities.
MNI Indicators is part of MNI, a leading provider of
news and intelligence. MNI is a wholly owned
subsidiary of Deutsche Börse Group, one of the largest
worldwide exchange organisations.
Written and researched by
Philip Uglow, Chief Economist
Shaily Mittal, Economist
MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Westferry House
11 Westferry Circus
London
E14 4HE
Tel: +44 (0)20 7862 7444
Email: info@mni-indicators.com
support@mni-indicators.com
www.mni-indicators.com
@MNIIndicators
Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group.
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.
Release Time
Embargoed until 9:45 a.m. New Delhi time
April 1, 2014

MNI India Consumer Report - March 2014 3
Contents
4 Editorial
6 Executive Summary
12 Economic Landscape
16 Indicators
17 MNI India Consumer Indicator
24 Personal Finances
27 Current Business Conditions
30 Durable Buying Conditions
31 Employment Outlook
33 Prices Sentiment
36 Interest Rate Expectations Indicator
37 Stock Investment Indicator
41 Real Estate Investment Indicator
44 Car Purchase Indicator
46 Consumer Sentiment - Regions
50 Consumer Sentiment - Income Group
52 What the Panel Said
55 Data Tables
63 Methodology

Spitzzeile Titel4
In less than a week’s time, the largest election ever
witnessed in the world begins in India and, among
businesses and investors alike, there is huge
anticipation that the new government will turn
around the ailing Indian economy.
A Turning Point?

In less than a week’s time, the largest election ever
witnessed in the world begins in India and, among
businesses and investors alike, there is huge
anticipation that the new government will turn around
the ailing Indian economy.
India’s 16th national elections kick off on April 7, and
continue in a series of stages around the country
before concluding on May 12. There are about 815
million eligible voters, of which a record 120 million
are aged between 18-22 years and will vote for the
first time this year.
The Indian Congress Party (center left) and the
Bharatiya Janata Party, (BJP, center right) are the two
main national parties. The BJP is headed by Narendra
Modi, who has presided over rapid economic growth
for more than 12 years as the chief minister of the
state of Gujarat. He has been wooing voters by
pointing his track record as a leader who attracts
investment, which is critical for India. The Congress
party, which has ruled for a decade has yet to name
its prime ministerial candidate, and struggles in
opinion polls due to public anger over a string of
corruption scandals and the sharp slowdown of
economic growth. Rahul Gandhi, frontman for the
Congress party has been campaigning on a primarily
socialist agenda such as providing cheap food and
guaranteed employment in rural areas.
While Gandhi has pledged to rout the opposition BJP
with “love”, equity markets seem confident that Modi
will win. The BSE Sensex has rallied sharply over the
past month from 20,193 on February 13 to 22,386
on March 31, a rise of almost 11%. Having fallen to a
low of 17905 in August last year, the index is up by
over 25% since then.
An influx of foreign investment has buoyed the market
too, with global fund managers pouring $937million
into Indian equities in March - roughly three times the
level of inflows in the previous two months. Some of
the mood swing is also due to an improvement in the
external environment with better growth prospects of
the US and European economies.
If history is a guide to the future then we’re set to see
equities rally even more during the election period.
The Sensex has risen during the election period in
each of the past three elections and in five out of the
previous six elections. Our analysis also shows that
GDP growth tends to increase in the year after an
election, not least due to post election increases in
government spending.
Already our sister business survey suggests that
companies have turned the corner, so there are some
reasons to be optimistic on the economy. Consumers
also appear to be optimistic that a new government
will turn the economy around.
Equity markets, though, already appear to be pricing
in a significant BJP victory and while Modi seems to
be the frontrunner now, elections can produce
surprises and there are still six weeks until the polls
close.
Philip Uglow
Shaily Mittal
MNI Indicators

MNI China Consumer Report - July 20136
The MNI India Consumer Indicator declined slightly
in March led by a decline in optimism about Personal
Finances. In spite of the latest fall, consumer
sentiment was over 5% above the same level a year
ago.
Executive Summary

The MNI India Consumer Indicator declined slightly in
March driven by a fall in both current and future
expectations, following a rise to a 14-month high in
February.
The Consumer Indicator fell 1.6% on the month to
125.8 in March from 127.8 in February. In spite of
this decline, consumer sentiment was over 5% above
the same period a year ago.
Consumer sentiment fell sharply in the summer of
2013 as the Indian economy weakened, inflation rose
sharply and the turmoil in emerging markets saw the
currency come under intense pressure. Confidence
has subsequently improved and stood at 125.0 in the
quarter ending March, up from 122.2 in the previous
quarter and from 118.0 in the quarter ending
September 2013.
The less timely quarterly consumer survey from the
Reserve Bank of India showed that consumer’s
current sentiment improved marginally in December
compared with September, in line with our own
survey.
The decline in consumer confidence was led by South
and East India while consumers in the North, West
and Central regions were more optimistic compared
with the previous month.
Consumer sentiment only improved in the oldest age
range in March, increasing by 5.7% on the month to
hit a series high. In contrast, consumer sentiment
declined in the two other age groups, though was still
above the levels seen in the same period a year
earlier.
Current Personal Finances declined to the lowest level
since October 2013 and consumers were also less
optimistic about their future personal finances.
Perceptions about the current state of business
declined significantly in March while there was higher
optimism regarding longer term business conditions.
The Durable Buying Conditions Indicator remained
broadly stable at 111.6 in March compared with
111.4 in February, following a sharp decline at the
start of the year to 106.0.
Consumers’ satisfaction with the current level of
prices declined sharply in March, while expectations
for inflation in a year’s time remained broadly stable.
The Stock Investment Indicator, which gauges whether
it is a good time to invest in the stock market, declined
significantly to 89.7 in March from 105.1 in the
previous month, as the continued rise in the stock
market put respondents off investing in equities.
The Real Estate Investment Indicator declined in
March having risen to a record high level in the
previous month.
The Car Purchase Indicator increased to the highest
level in 10 months in March, as car purchase
expectations improved and expectations for the price
of gasoline remained broadly stable.
MNI India Consumer Indicator - Components
PersonalFinance:
Current
PersonalFinances:
Expected
DurableBuying
Conditions
BusinessConditionsin1
Year
BusinessConditionsin5
Years
0
100

All India - Overview
Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
MNI India Consumer Indicator 121.2 127.8 125.8 - Jan-14 124.9 -2.0 -1.6%
Current Indicator 113.2 118.4 115.5 - Jan-14 115.7 -2.9 -2.4%
Expectations Indicator 126.6 134.2 132.8 - Jan-14 131.2 -1.4 -1.0%
Personal Finance: Current 120.5 125.3 119.4 - Oct-13 121.7 -5.9 -4.7%
Personal Finance: Expected 127.8 137.4 133.1 - Jan-14 132.8 -4.3 -3.2%
Business Condition: 1 Year 119.3 128.2 124.5 - Jan-14 124.0 -3.7 -2.9%
Business Condition: 5 Year 132.7 136.9 140.8 series high - 136.8 3.9 2.8%
Durable Buying Conditions 106.0 111.4 111.6 Dec-13 - 109.7 0.2 0.2%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 108.9 116.0 102.9 - series low 109.3 -13.1 -11.3%
Stock Investment Indicator 102.3 105.1 89.7 - series low 99.0 -15.4 -14.7%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 114.2 119.1 117.8 - Jan-14 117.0 -1.3 -1.2%
Car Purchase Indicator 69.2 73.0 75.3 May-13 - 72.5 2.3 3.1%
Employment Outlook Indicator 112.0 121.8 115.7 - Jan-14 116.5 -6.1 -5.0%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 153.6 154.8 154.2 - Jan-14 154.2 -0.6 -0.4%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 75.7 75.4 67.2 - series low 72.8 -8.2 -10.9%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 136.3 134.6 133.0 - Jul-13 134.6 -1.6 -1.2%

All India - Summary
2013 2014
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
MNI India Consumer
Indicator 119.7 123.9 124.5 122.9 119.5 118.7 115.9 120.2 122.5 123.9 121.2 127.8 125.8
Current Indicator 116.8 119.5 120.7 113.7 114.1 113.9 109.3 113.9 117.0 119.0 113.2 118.4 115.5
Expectations Indicator 121.6 126.8 127.0 129.0 123.0 122.0 120.3 124.3 126.2 127.2 126.6 134.2 132.8
Personal Finance:
Current 116.6 121.1 122.2 115.8 114.2 116.3 118.0 117.1 123.3 122.5 120.5 125.3 119.4
Personal Finance:
Expected 124.0 131.8 131.0 128.3 121.9 122.1 118.4 122.4 125.3 131.0 127.8 137.4 133.1
Business Condition:
1 Year 114.9 117.2 119.4 124.2 121.2 115.3 114.1 119.3 118.2 117.4 119.3 128.2 124.5
Business Condition:
5 Year 126.0 131.6 130.5 134.6 126.0 128.5 128.4 131.3 135.2 133.1 132.7 136.9 140.8
Durable Buying
Conditions 117.1 117.9 119.2 111.6 114.0 111.5 100.7 110.7 110.7 115.5 106.0 111.4 111.6
Current Business
Conditions Indicator 116.4 120.0 121.0 118.4 113.1 111.4 108.9 108.2 109.1 114.5 108.9 116.0 102.9
Stock Investment
Indicator 104.5 102.3 101.4 110.1 105.1 104.5 106.4 96.8 96.8 102.3 102.3 105.1 89.7
Investment Return 110.1 105.1 104.0 102.7 112.7 110.9 125.2 94.0 93.5 100.5 103.0 104.5 82.7
Stock Price Sentiment 104.2 103.7 103.5 100.4 111.9 116.5 124.8 107.5 115.8 105.8 107.4 103.7 128.6
Stock Market Expec-
tations 107.5 105.5 103.8 127.8 114.6 119.2 118.8 103.8 112.6 112.1 111.1 114.3 114.9
Real Estate Invest-
ment Indicator 119.4 119.9 113.1 115.7 115.1 109.8 109.7 110.4 113.2 114.4 114.2 119.1 117.8
House Price Expec-
tations 142.4 139.1 133.3 136.3 135.1 140.8 144.7 148.6 147.9 143.8 143.1 152.6 148.6
House Buying Sen-
timent 118.1 121.5 115.5 119.7 114.7 100.6 98.1 95.0 92.8 104.8 94.9 107.7 102.8
House selling Senti-
ment 102.2 101.1 109.4 109.0 104.4 111.9 113.6 112.5 101.2 105.4 95.5 102.9 98.2
Car Purchase Indi-
cator 76.6 76.4 75.8 69.5 68.5 61.6 60.1 67.1 65.7 73.8 69.2 73.0 75.3
Car Purchase Expec-
tations 107.3 109.2 106.0 98.5 105.7 94.3 90.3 98.4 97.7 103.0 99.0 103.2 108.9
Price of Gasoline
Expectations 154.0 156.4 154.5 159.5 168.7 171.0 170.2 164.1 166.3 155.4 160.6 157.2 158.3
Employment Outlook
Indicator 119.1 123.4 127.9 122.6 120.9 119.2 113.2 114.6 121.0 117.6 112.0 121.8 115.7
Inflation Expectations
Indicator 145.6 134.0 136.5 143.9 144.4 152.9 156.1 152.4 159.2 152.6 153.6 154.8 154.2
Current Prices Satisfac-
tion Indicator 78.2 96.5 99.7 96.4 93.9 92.6 83.2 90.2 70.2 86.2 75.7 75.4 67.2
Interest Rates Expecta-
tions Indicator 116.6 123.0 125.6 120.4 129.6 133.8 136.1 137.5 138.8 140.4 136.3 134.6 133.0

All India - Records
2012-Current
Minimum Maximum Mean Median
MNI India Consumer Indicator 115.9 133.7 123.5 122.9
Current Indicator 109.3 128.3 117.4 116.8
Expectations Indicator 120.3 137.3 127.6 127.0
Personal Finance: Current 114.2 135.4 122.1 121.1
Personal Finance: Expected 118.4 141.5 129.3 131.0
Business Condition: 1 Year 114.1 131.8 121.5 119.4
Business Condition: 5 Year 123.9 140.8 132.0 132.0
Durable Buying Conditions 100.7 121.1 112.7 111.6
Current Business Conditions Indicator 102.9 124.9 115.3 116.0
Stock Investment Indicator 89.7 110.1 102.1 102.6
Investment Return 82.7 136.5 107.8 105.1
Stock Price Sentiment 100.4 128.6 109.7 106.6
Stock Market Expectations 103.8 134.4 113.7 112.6
Real Estate Investment Indicator 109.7 119.9 114.9 114.8
House Price Expectations 133.3 152.6 142.5 142.7
House Buying Sentiment 92.8 121.5 107.3 106.1
House Selling Sentiment 95.5 113.6 106.3 105.4
Car Purchase Indicator 60.1 84.0 72.4 73.0
Car Purchase Expectations 90.3 114.8 103.6 105.7
Price of Gasoline Expectations 142.5 171.0 158.7 158.3
Employment Outlook Indicator 112.0 128.3 119.4 119.2
Inflation Expectations Indicator 126.8 159.2 147.3 152.4
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 67.2 115.9 87.8 90.2
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 116.6 140.4 130.5 131.4

w
Economic growth
slowed to 4.7% on
the year in the three
months to
December.
This was below growth of 4.8% in the previous
quarter, but up from 4.4% in the same period a year
ago.

Spitzzeile Titel12
Latest economic data has painted a mixed picture
of the India economy as industrial production posted
the first increase in four months and consumer
price inflation fell to a 25-month low while exports
ended their seven month run of increases.
Economic Landscape

Latest economic data has painted a mixed picture of
the India economy. Industrial production posted the
first increase in four months and consumer price
inflation fell to a 25-month low as the sharp rise in
vegetable prices continued to unwind. While the trade
deficit narrowed in February, due to lower gold
imports, exports ended their seven month run of
increases. Car sales posted their first increase in five
months.
The Reserve Bank of India raised the policy rate by
25 basis points to 8% from 7.75% at its January
meeting, citing the elevated level of consumer price
inflation which will restrain growth somewhat going
forward. Latest GDP data showed growth of 4.7% in
the final quarter of 2013 and expectations are that
growth will rise slightly in the first quarter and this is
supported by our survey evidence.
Disappointing economic growth
Economic growth in India slowed to 4.7% on the year
in the three months to December, down from 4.8% in
the previous quarter. It was, though, marginally above
the 4.4% rate seen in the same period a year ago.
Data on an output basis showed that growth was
boosted by services that grew 7% on the year,
compared with 4.2% in the previous quarter. A
bountiful harvest was expected to translate into strong
agricultural growth but output here was disappointing
as it slowed to 3.6% compared with 4.6% in the
previous quarter. Manufacturing fell back into
contraction, declining by 1.9% compared with 1%
growth in the previous quarter.
The Finance Minister P Chidambaram expects the
economy to grow by 4.9% this year and to accelerate
to 6% in the next fiscal year. The economy must
expand by 5.7% in the January-March quarter to
achieve the forecast which on current evidence looks
highly unlikely. This would be the first time in 26
years that growth will be below 5% for two successive
years.
Industrial outlook shows minor recovery
Economic Growth
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Q12009
Q32009
Q12010
Q32010
Q12011
Q32011
Q12012
Q32012
Q12013
Q32014
GDP y/y %, fiscal year
Source: Central Statistical Organisation, India
The Reserve Bank’s Industrial Outlook Survey, showed
that the Business Expectation Index, a gauge of
manufacturing business sentiment, improved
marginally in the quarter ending December to 98.8
from 97.3 in the quarter ending September.
Expectations for the next quarter ending March rose
to 112.7 compared with the previous quarter’s 109.9.
Current assessment and expectations sentiment for
production, order books, capacity utilisation, exports
and imports improved slightly, showing that companies
were more optimistic about the demand outlook.
Industrial output rises
Industrial production recorded positive growth in
January, albeit a very small increase of 0.1% on the
year, having contracted for the previous three months.
Production for the period from April 2013 to January
2014 was flat compared with 1% in the same period
a year earlier.
While the wider measure of industrial production
increased, manufacturing output continued to decline,
albeit at a slower rate. Manufacturing was down by
0.7% on the year in January following a 1.2% decline
in December. Overall, 11 out of the 22 industry groups
within the manufacturing sector expanded in January,
led by a 17.6% output rise in ‘Medical, precision &
optical instruments, watches and clocks’, followed by

which fell 9.9%.
Although wholesale price inflation fell below the RBI‘s
comfort zone of 5%, consumer price inflation remains
above 8%.
Repo rate increased to 8%
The RBI raised the policy rate by 25 basis points to
8% from 7.75% at its January meeting, citing the
elevated level of consumer price inflation.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan made clear that
inflation needed to be brought down to a low and
stable level, so that monetary policy could eventually
help to revive consumption and investment in a
sustainable way. The RBI, however, said that if retail
inflation eases as projected, it does not foresee a
need for further monetary policy tightening in the
near-term.
15.2% in ‘Electrical machinery & apparatus’ and
14.4% in ‘Wearing apparel; dressing and dyeing of
fur’.
After increasing 0.4% on the year in December,
mining output growth rose 0.7% in January. Output of
consumer durables, a measure of consumer demand,
posted the fourteenth consecutive decline, falling
8.3% in January compared with 16.1% decline in
December. Capital goods output, a proxy for
investments in the economy, fell 4.2% in January
compared with a decline of 2.5% in December.
Inflation slows as vegetable prices decline
Consumer price inflation eased to a 25-month low of
8.1% in January from 8.8% in the previous month.
Food price inflation, which makes up almost half of
the basket, eased to 8.6% from 9.9% in January. The
moderation was driven by cooling vegetable prices
which rose by 14% compared with a year earlier,
down from 21.9% in January. Core CPI eased slightly
to 8% compared with 8.1% in the previous month
and has averaged 8% over three months.
Wholesale price inflation decelerated to a nine month
low of 4.7% in February, down from 5% in January.
The slowdown was largely driven by vegetable prices
A central bank panel proposed to revamp its
policymaking structure by setting a long-term
consumer price inflation target of 4%, plus or minus
2%. As inflation remains high, it recommended that
the goal should be phased in gradually. It appears that
the RBI has already shifted its focus to CPI which it
Industrial Production
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
50
100
150
200
250
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Industrial Production y/y % (RHS)
Industrial Production
Source: Central Statistical Organisation, India
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Wholesale and Consumer Price Inflation
Wholesale Price Inflation*
Consumer Price Inflation**
Source: *Office of the Economic Advisor, India, **MOSPI

aims to reduce to 8% by January 2015 and 6% by
January 2016.
Fiscal budget deficit
The government budget deficit stood at Rs.5.3 trillion
in the April-January period, or 101.6% of the target
for the year ending March 2014, compared with
89.4% at the same point a year ago. Net tax receipts
totalled Rs. 5.76 trillion in the first ten months to
March 2014, while total expenditure was Rs. 12.7
trillion.
The Finance Minister P Chidambaram will likely
tighten spending in what is left of the year to try and
bridge the gap in the public finances.
The government has proposed to bring down the
fiscal deficit to 4.8% of GDP in 2013-14. The
government plans to defer some subsidy payments to
next year, while focusing on speeding up the sale of
stakes in state-run firms and minority stakes in some
private companies. The government raised over Rs.
610 billion from selling licences for mobile internet
spectrum in February.
The fiscal deficit for 2014-15 is projected at 4.1% of
GDP and 3% of GDP in 2016-17.
Foreign reserves rise
Foreign exchange reserves rose to $298.6 billion in
the week ending March 21, from $297.3 billion a
week earlier. This is the fourth consecutive week of
increase in the country‘s forex reserves as overseas
investors poured in money in local bonds and stock
markets. According to the RBI’s weekly statistical
supplement, foreign currency assets, the biggest
component of the forex reserves, rose by $1.58 billion
to $271.4 billion. These are expressed in dollar terms
and include the effect of appreciation or depreciation
of the non-US currencies such as the euro, pound
and yen, held in its reserves.
Moves by the RBI over the months have greatly
strengthened India’s foreign exchange reserve
position, leaving it less vulnerable to another run on
the currency. The value of India’s gold reserves
remained steady at $20.9 billion.
Trade deficit shrinks in February
India’s trade deficit narrowed to $8.1 billion in
February, down from a $9.9 billion deficit in January,
and more than 40% below the deficit of $14.1 billion
seen in the same period last year. Lower imports of
gold led the improvement between January and
February.
While the trade gap narrowed, exports contracted for
the first time in eight months as they fell to $25.7
billion, 3.7% below the level seen last year and 4%
below January’s $26.8 billion. Imports fell 17.1% on
the year to $33.8 billion in February and 7.8% below
January’s $36.7 billion. Oil imports climbed from
January’s $13.2 billion to $13.7 in Februray, although
were lower than $13.8 billion seen in December and
3.1% below the level in February 2013. Gold imports
fell to $1.6 billion from $1.7 billion in January.
The current account deficit narrowed to $4.2 billion,
or 0.9% of GDP in the October to December quarter,
from $31.9 billion a year earlier. The government
expects to keep the current account deficit at $45
billion in the fiscal year that ends in March.
Car sales increase
Passenger car sales increased for the first time in five
months in February, to 160,718 units, 1.4% above
the previous year. For the first 11 months of this fiscal
year, though, sales declined 4.6% to 1.61 million
cars. Most consumers in India have chosen to defer
purchases of vehicles given the slowdown in the
economy, higher loan rates and rising fuel prices.
The rise in car sales in Februray was attributed to
price discounting from car manufacturers, following
the excise duty reduction on small cars, two wheelers
and commercial vehicles to 8% from 12%, announced
in the interim budget.
There have been reports that various new car models
have also generated a lot of interest and are expected
to boost sales.

MNI China Consumer Report - July 201316
The MNI India Consumer Indicator declined slightly
in March driven by a fall in both current and future
expectations, following a rise to a 14-month high
in the previous month.
Indicators

The MNI India Consumer Indicator declined slightly in
March driven by a fall in both current and future
expectations, following a rise to a 14-month high in
February.
The Consumer Indicator fell 1.6% on the month to
125.8 in March from 127.8 in February. In spite of
this decline, consumer sentiment was over 5% above
the same period a year ago.
Consumer sentiment fell sharply in the summer of
2013 as the Indian economy weakened, inflation rose
sharply and the turmoil in emerging markets saw the
currency come under intense pressure. Confidence
has subsequently improved and stood at 125.0 in the
quarter ending March, up from 122.2 in the previous
quarter and from 118.0 in the quarter ending
September 2013.
The Current Indicator decreased by 2.4% to 115.5 in
March from 118.4 in February and the Expectations
Indicator decreased by 1% to 132.8 in March from
134.2 in February.
In March, three out of the five components which
make up the Consumer Indicator declined. Personal
Finances, both current and future, fell after rising in
the previous month. Business Conditions in One Year
dropped for the first time in three months. Consumers
were more optimistic about Business Conditions in
Five Years, on the belief that the new government
would be able to turn the economy around. Consumers’
optimism regarding purchasing a large household
125.8
MNI India Consumer Indicator
Declines in March
Mar-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14
MNI India
Consumer Indicator 119.7 120.2 122.5 123.9 121.2 127.8 125.8
Current 116.8 113.9 117.0 119.0 113.2 118.4 115.5
Expectations 121.6 124.3 126.2 127.2 126.6 134.2 132.8
100
110
120
130
140
Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Consumer Indicators
Current
Expectations

125.8
115.5
132.8
Total Indicator Current Indicator Expectations Indicator
All India
123.4
120.0
125.7
South India
125.1
112.8
133.3
North India
124.6
112.7
132.5
East India
127.6
115.2
135.9
West India
131.9
116.5
142.1
Central India

item remained broadly stable in March.
The less timely quarterly consumer survey from the
Reserve Bank of India showed that consumers’
current sentiment improved marginally in December
compared with September, in line with our own
survey.
Regions
The decline in the Consumer Indicator was led by
South and East India while consumers in the North,
West and Central regions were more optimistic
compared with the previous month.
In South India, sentiment declined significantly to
123.4 after hitting a series high in the previous month
of 135.1. In East India, confidence fell to a record low
in September 2013 and since then has trended
upwards. In March, the Consumer Indicator fell to
124.6 from 129.4 in the previous month and was
broadly unchanged from the level seen in March a
year earlier.
Consumers remained more optimistic about future
rather than current conditions. The Current Indicator
declined in all regions apart from West and Central
India.
Age
Consumer sentiment only improved in the oldest age
range in March, increasing by 5.7% on the month to
hit a series high. In contrast, consumer sentiment
declined in the two other age groups, though was still
above the levels seen in the same period a year
earlier.
The Consumer Indicator for the 18-34 age range
declined by 2.3% to 124.5 in March from 127.5 in
February. All five components of the Consumer
Indicator fell apart from Business Conditions in Five
Years which rose to a series high on the month. The
-0.9
-0.7
-0.6
0.6
0.0
Personal Finance: Current
Personal Finance: Expected
Business Condition: 1 Year
Business Condition: 5 Year
Durable Buying Conditions
Consumer Indicator: Contribution to Monthly Change
(% pt.)

other two components of the Expectations Indicator,
Expected Personal Finances and Business Conditions
in One Year declined by 6.9% and 3.5% respectively.
Durable Buying Conditions declined for the third
consecutive month and there was a dip in Current
Personal Finances.
After a sharp rise in consumer sentiment among 35-
54 age olds to 130.2 in February, confidence fell to
126.6 in March. The decline in sentiment was led by
all five components, with Current Personal Finances
falling the most. Consumers were least optimistic
about buying a large household item, although it fell
only slightly from the previous month.
For the oldest age range, 55-64 year olds, sentiment
increased for the second month in a row to 127.3
from 120.5 in February. Apart from Current Personal
Finances, all the other components increased. There
were significant increases in consumers’ expectations
about Business Conditions in Five Years and Durable
Buying Conditions.
Income
Consumer confidence declined in both low and high
income households.
The Consumer Indicator for households with an
average annual income of over INR 432,000 declined
4.2% on the month to 127.1 in March from 132.6 in
February. For households with an average annual
income under INR 432,000, the indicator fell by 5%
on the month to 123.4 from 129.8 in February.
Since March 2013, confidence has increased 5.6%
among lower income households, while for higher
income households it has risen by less than 1%. On
average, though, the level of confidence remains
greater for higher income households.
125.8
124.5
126.6
127.3
Total Indicator 18-34 35-54 55-64
Consumer Indicator: Age Groups

123.4
114.8
129.2
< INR 432,000 per annum
127.1
120.0
131.9
> INR 432,000 per annum
Income Groups

Main Cities
The Consumer Indicator declined in seven out of the
ten major Indian cities in March apart from Pune, Su-
rat and Visakhapatnam. Successive improvements in
consumer sentiment made Pune the most optimistic
city in March while Hyderabad was the least.
In the capital Delhi, consumer sentiment was broadly
stable at 121.1 compared with 121.4 in the previous
month. Of the five components, both Current and Ex-
pected Personal Finances and Durable Buying Condi-
tions improved while expectations about Business
Conditions in One and Five Years deteriorated.
In Mumbai, India‘s most populous city, consumer
sentiment remained broadly stable at 124.5 in March
as compared with 124.8 in the previous month. Re-
spondents were more optimistic about buying large
household items and Business Conditions in Five Ye-
ars, while they were less optimistic about Business
Condition in One Year and Personal Finances.
In contrast to Delhi and Mumbai, confidence in Ban-
galore, the third largest city by population in India,
declined sharply following a large increase in the pre-
vious month. The Consumer Indicator fell to 121.2
from 152.0 in February, led by significant losses in all
five components.
Consumer sentiment in Bangalore has been volatile
over the past four months and the decline in March
was led by almost equal falls in the Current and Ex-
pectations Indicators. The Current Conditions Indica-
tor declined to 114.0 from 146.0 in February, while
the Expectations Indicator declined to 126.0 from
156.0.
In Pune, consumer sentiment rose for the second
month in a row to the highest since May 2013. The
Consumer Indicator increased from 129.4 in February
to 133.4 in March and was 5.4% above the same
period a year earlier.
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Consumer Indicator - Mumbai
108.8
135.0
113.8
131.9
126.9
146.3
103.8
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expected
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components - Mumbai

100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator - Delhi
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
Consumer Indicator - Bangalore
111.1
127.8
112.0
136.1
121.3
125.9
110.2
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expected
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components - Delhi
114.0
126.0 122.0 118.0
123.0
137.0
106.0
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expected
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Year
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components - Bangalore

Current Personal Finances declined to the lowest level
since October 2013 and consumers were also less
optimistic about their future personal finances.
Current Personal Finances, which measures whether
the financial situation of a household is better, the
same or worse than a year ago, declined by 4.7% to
119.4 in March, offsetting the previous month’s gain
to 125.3. Current Personal Finances hit a low in the
summer of 2013, but have subsequently bounced
back and were up from 119.7 in March last year.
The percentage of respondents who reported that
their current financial situation improved compared
with a year ago fell to 43.5% in March from 51.2% in
February. Those reporting financial conditions were
the same as last year increased to 45.4% from 41.4%,
while those reporting a worsening increased from
7.4% to 11.2%.
Out of those who responded that their financial
conditions improved, a growing proportion cited better
family expenses as the reason for this.
Expected Personal Finances, which measures whether
households think their finances will be better in a
year’s time, declined to 133.1 from 137.4 in February.
The percentage of respondents reporting that they
expected their financial situation to improve in a year’s
time fell from 65% to 60%. The percentage of
respondents reporting that they expected their
financial situation to worsen in a year’s time increased
to 5.3% from 3.3% in February.
119.4
Personal Finances
Both Current and Expected
Finances Sink
Personal Finances
Current 116.6 117.1 123.3 122.5 120.5 125.3 119.4
Expectations 124.0 122.4 125.3 131.0 127.8 137.4 133.1
100
110
120
130
140
150
Personal Finances
Current
Expectations
7.6%
35.9%
45.4%
9.9%
1.2%
Current Financial Situation Compared with 1 Year
Ago (% of Households)
Much Better
A Little Better
Same
A Little Worse
Much Worse

0.9%
4.8%
17.6%
76.7%
Monthly Household Income Used for Daily Expenses
(% of Households)
28.7%
46.7%
18.9%
5.7%
Monthly Household Income Used for Savings
(% of Households)
84.5%
9.5%
3.4%
0.4%
Monthly Household Income Used for Large Loan
Repayment (% of Households)
90.1%
8.3%
0.9%
Monthly Household Income Used for Investments
(% of Households)
How Households Spend their
Money
0% - 29% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
0% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
0% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
0% of Income
1% - 29% of Income
50% - 69% of Income
70% - 100% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
30% - 49% of Income
30% -49% of Income

w
Perceptions about
longer term Business
Conditions hit a
series high.
The indicator increased to 140.8 in March from
136.9 previously.

Perceptions about the current state of business
declined significantly in March while there was higher
optimism regarding longer term business conditions.
The Current Business Conditions Indicator, which
measures respondents’ views on the state of business
compared with a year earlier, decreased to a series
low of 102.9, 11.3% below the level of 116.0 in
February.
The proportion of respondents who were positive
about business conditions fell from 44.1% in February
to 31.1% in March while the proportion of those who
found them “just fair” increased to 39.7% from 36.8%
previously. Respondents who said business conditions
were “poor” or “very poor” increased significantly to
24.4% from 14.5% previously.
Expectations for Business Conditions in a Year fell
after rising for two consecutive months. The indicator
declined to 124.5 from 128.2 in February, as the
percentage of respondents who reported that business
conditions would be better in a year’s time fell from
almost 56% to 50.7%.
The majority of respondents who expected business
conditions to be better in a year cited economic
development as the main reason, although fewer than
in the previous month. Many panellists expected
business conditions to improve after the national
election, in the hope that a new government will push
forward with business friendly policies.
102.9
Business Conditions
Longer Term Business
Expectations Hit Record High
Business Conditions
Current 116.4 108.2 109.1 114.5 108.9 116.0 102.9
In 1 Year 114.9 119.3 118.2 117.4 119.3 128.2 124.5
In 5 Years 126.0 131.3 135.2 133.1 132.7 136.9 140.8
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Current Business Conditions Indicator
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Expected Business Conditions: 1 Year and 5 Years
1 Year
5 Years

Business Conditions in 1 Year
Selected Reasons
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Resource/Environment
Social Stability/ Security
Events
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Events
32.3%
47.3%
8.9%
7.3%
4.0%
0.2%
All India, Reasons for Better
39.8%
29.8%
5.2%
8.3%
16.5%
0.5%
All India, Reasons for Worse
70.2% 69.7%
29.8% 30.3%
Feb-14 Mar-14
All India
A growing proportion of respondents, who expected
business conditions to worsen, cited social stability as
the main reason.
Longer term, Expectations for Business Conditions in
Five Years have been on an upward trend since July
last year and rose to a series high in March. The
indicator increased to 140.8 from 136.9 previously.
Among the major cities surveyed, Ahmedabad was
the most optimistic and witnessed the highest jump
from the previous month, probably owing to
expectations that Narendra Modi who is the Chief
Minister of the state of Gujarat would gain a majority
in the national election. Surat, another major city in
Gujarat, had higher expectations about long term
business conditions.
Better
Worse

Business Conditions in 1 Year
Regions
124.5
127.4
110.9
130.5
128.7 128.0
All India North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Business Expectations
North India South India East India West India Central India
Reasons for Better (% of Respondents)
66.4% 67.1% 71.8% 74.3%
66.7%
33.6% 32.9% 28.2% 25.7%
33.3%
Business Expectations: Better or Worse?
(% of Respondents)
Reasons for Worse (% of Respondents)
Better
Worse
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Events
Government/Policy
Econ. Development
Income/Employment
Events

The Durable Buying Conditions Indicator remained
broadly stable at 111.6 in March compared with
111.4 in February, following a sharp decline at the
start of the year to 106.0.
The Indicator on Durable Buying Conditions measures
whether respondents think it is a good time or bad
time to buy a large household good. A rise in the
indicator means more respondents said it was a good
time to buy a large household good.
Sentiment on buying conditions fell throughout most
of last year, signalling pressure on consumers’
disposable income, owing to the weakening of
economy and high inflation. The lost ground has not
been made up, with the result in March down 4.7%
below the same period a year earlier.
Out of the ten largest cities surveyed, respondents
from Kolkata were the most optimistic about buying a
large household item in March. Compared with last
month, consumers from Delhi and Surat,
Visakhapatnam thought it was a better time to buy a
large household item.
The Indicator increased in all regions apart from South
and Central India. Respondents from East India were
the most optimistic about buying durable goods as
the Indicator rose to 116.4, the first rise in three
months.
For all India, the proportion of respondents who said
it was an “excellent time” or “good time” to buy large
household goods remained broadly stable at 42.5%
as compared with 42% in the previous month.
Remain Broadly Stable
Durable Buying
Conditions 117.1 110.7 110.7 115.5 106.0 111.4 111.6
111.6
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
1.0%
41.5%
34.1%
17.0%
1.7%
4.8%
Is It a Good or Bad Time to Buy Large Household
Goods? (% of Households)
Excellent Time
Good Time
Neutral
Bad Time
Very Bad Time
Don‘t Know/No Answer

The Employment Outlook Indicator declined to 115.7
in March after rising significantly in the previous
month, pushing it below the 119.1 outturn seen in
March 2013.
The indicator measures opinion on the outlook for the
employment market over the next 12 months and the
March reading was below the average of the series of
119.4.
Respondents from all regions apart from West India
expected a considerable deterioration in the
employment situation. In West India, respondents’
expectations remained broadly stable and were the
highest since December 2013.
The proportion of respondents who expected an
improvement in the Employment Outlook declined to
43.8% in March from almost 52% in February, while
those forecasting a worsening increased to 14.4%
from 12.3%. Those suggesting there would be no
change increased significantly from 35.6% to 41.7%.
Employment Outlook Indicator
Declines in March
Employment Outlook
Employment
Outlook 119.1 114.6 121.0 117.6 112.0 121.8 115.7
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
Employment Outlook Indicator
3.5%
40.4%
41.7%
13.0%
1.4%
Employment Outlook for the Next 12 Months
(% of Households)
115.7
Much Better
A Little Better
Same
A Little Worse
Much Worse

w
Consumers’
satisfaction with the
current level of
prices declined
sharply.
The increased dissatisfaction with prices came in
spite of a decline in India’s official inflation that
eased to a 25-month low of 8.1% in January.

Consumers’ satisfaction with the current level of
prices declined sharply in March, while expectations
for inflation in a year’s time remained broadly stable.
The Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator declined
significantly to a series low of 67.2 in March compared
with 75.4 in the previous month. A figure below 100
indicates wider dissatisfaction with the current level of
prices. The further below 100, the greater the
dissatisfaction. The indicator has trended down since
the start of the survey in November 2012 and was
above 100 in only the first two months of the survey.
The increased dissatisfaction with prices came in
spite of a decline in India’s official inflation figures.
Consumer price inflation eased to a 25-month low of
8.1% in January from 8.8% in the previous month.
Food price inflation, which makes up almost half of
the basket, eased to 8.6% from 9.9% in January.
Wholesale price inflation also decelerated to a nine
month low of 4.7% in February, down from 5% in
January.
The Inflation Expectations Indicator, which measures
whether respondents think prices will be higher or
lower in 12 months’ time, remained broadly stable at
154.2 in March as compared with 154.8 in February.
Consumers’ expectations for inflation have remained
elevated since November 2012 when the series
started. Some respondents said they are looking
forward to the national election in May with an
expectation that the new government will help bring
down price pressures.
Prices Sentiment
Discontent Hits a New Low
Prices Sentiment
Satisfaction with
Current Prices 78.2 90.2 70.2 86.2 75.7 75.4 67.2
Inflation Expec-
tations 145.6 152.4 159.2 152.6 153.6 154.8 154.2
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Satisfaction with Current Prices Indicator
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
Inflation Expectations Indicator
67.2

1.9%
17.2%
15.8%
43.8%
21.4%
Satisfaction with Current Prices
(% of Households)
Very Satisfied
Quite Satisfied
So So
Not Very Satisfied
Not Satisfied At All
31.6%
52.3%
9.9%
5.0%
1.1% 0.1%
Inflation Expectations in 12 Months
(% of Households)
Much Higher
A Little Higher
Same
A Little Lower
Much Lower
The percentage of respondents who believed prices
would be higher in a year’s time remained flat at
83.9%, while those saying prices would be about the
same fell to 9.9% from 12% in the previous month. A
small but rising number of respondents believed
prices would be lower in a year’s time and their
proportion increased from 4.1% to 6.1%.
Asked about how much they thought prices would
increase, a growing proportion of respondents thought
that prices would rise by 5%, which was down from
expectations of a price rise between 6% and 9% in
February and over 25% in January.
Regions
Satisfaction with Current Prices worsened significantly
in North and South India, hitting a series low in the
former. In North India, the proportion of respondents
who were satisfied with the current level of prices fell
from almost 25% to 17.8%. Respondents from Central
India were the least dissatisfied with current prices in
March following a sharp decline in February when the
indicator hit a series low.
Apart from South and East India, respondents from
the other three regions expected prices to rise in a
year’s time. Consumers from the Central region had
the highest inflation expectations on the month.
Prices Sentiment
Regions

67.2
60.8
64.0
72.3 70.6
76.3
All India North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator
154.2
158.3
143.6
145.1
160.6
163.6
All India North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Inflation Expectations Indicator
All India North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Satisfaction with Current Prices
(% of Households)
Very Satisfied
Quite Satisfied
Neutral
Not Very Satisfied
Not Satisfied At All
North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Inflation Expectations in 12 Months
(% of Households)
Much Higher
A Little Higher
Same
A Little Lower
Much Lower

The Interest Rate Expectations Indicator declined for
the third consecutive month in March, although
remained at an elevated level.
The indicator fell to 133.0 from 134.6 in the previous
month, the lowest since July 2013, but was still above
the series average of 130.5.
The three months to March saw the indicator decline
to 134.6 compared with 138.9 recorded in the three
months to December.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) hiked the key policy
repo rate at the January monetary policy meeting by
25 basis points from 7.75% to 8%. The RBI said,
however, that if retail price inflation eased as projected,
it did not foresee a need for further monetary policy
tightening in the near-term. The RBI is expected to
keep its key interest rate steady at 8% at its next
meeting on April 1 due to the slowdown on inflation.
Interest Rate Expectations
Third Decline in a Row
Interest Rate Expectations
Expected Interest
Rate 116.6 137.5 138.8 140.4 136.3 134.6 133.0
133.0
100
110
120
130
140
150
Interest Rate Expectations Indicator
17.6%
40.4%
16.4%
8.1%
0.7%
16.9%
Expected Change in Interest Rate in 1 Year
(% of Households)
Much Higher
A Little Higher
Same
A Little Lower
Much Lower

The Stock Investment Indicator, which gauges whether
it is a good time to invest in the stock market, declined
significantly to 89.7 in March from 105.1 in February,
as the continued rise in the stock market put
respondents off investing in equities.
Indian equities have rallied in recent weeks, helped
by a growing expectation that the upcoming general
election will help to improve economic growth.
Opinion polls have showed that pro-business
candidate, Narendra Modi, is expected to form a
government. Some improvement in recent
macroeconomic data including a narrower current
account deficit and easing inflationary pressures have
also helped.
The benchmark Sensex breached the 22,000 mark
on March 10 and closed at 22,386 on March 31.
Analysts expect to see increased volatility in the
benchmark index ahead of the general election.
Stock Price Sentiment, which measures whether
respondents view equity prices as high or low, rose
sharply to a record high in March to 128.6 compared
with 103.7 in February. The component has a
negative impact on the overall investment indicator.
The Stock Investment Return component declined
significantly after rising for three consecutive months
to 82.7 in March from 104.5 in the previous month.
Expectations for the stock market in three months’
time remained broadly stable at 114.9 in March
compared with 114.3 in the previous month.
Stock Investment Indicator
Series Low
Investment Sentiment
Investment
Sentiment Indicator 104.5 96.8 96.8 102.3 102.3 105.1 89.7
Investment Return 110.1 94.0 93.5 100.5 103.0 104.5 82.7
Stock Price
Sentiment 104.2 107.5 115.8 105.8 107.4 103.7 128.6
Stock Market
Expectation 107.5 103.8 112.6 112.1 111.1 114.3 114.9
70
80
90
100
110
120
Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14
-6.94
-7.91
0.18
Investment Return
Stock Price Sentiment
Stock Market Expectations
Stock Investment Indicator: Contribution to Monthly
Change (% pt.)
89.7

89.7
82.7
128.6
114.9
Stock Investment
Indicator
Investment
Return
Stock Price
Sentiment
Stock Market
Expectations
Stock Investment Indicator - Components
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Stock Price Sentiment
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Investment Return
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Stock Market Expectations
Regions and Components

w
The Stock
Investment Indicator
declined significantly
in March...
...as the continued rise in the stock market put
respondents off investing in equities.

w
The Real Estate
Investment Indicator
declined in March,
having risen close to
record high levels.
The Indicator fell in all regions apart from West and
Central India, driven by a rise in House Price
Expectations and a decline in House Selling
Sentiment.

The Real Estate Investment Indicator, which gauges
whether it is a good time to invest in the housing
market, declined in March having risen close to a
record high level in the previous month.
The indicator fell to 117.8 in March from 119.1 in
February, although the three month trend rose for the
fifth consecutive month. Sentiment on real estate
dipped in the second half of last year before picking
up in 2014.
Indian developers and contractors are reliant on ties
with the government to acquire land or win contracts
and hence many projects are stalled, at least
temporarily, until the conclusion of the upcoming
elections.
According to another study by the Federation of Indian
Chambers of Commerce and Industry and Knight
Frank, India’s real estate market deteriorated in the
last quarter of 2013 and current sentiment is
pessimistic across the country.
The Real Estate Investment Indicator is composed of
three sub-indicators. House Buying Sentiment
declined in March to 102.8 after rising sharply in the
previous month to 107.7. There was a decline in the
proportion of respondents who said it was an excellent
or a good time to buy a house from 43.6% to 38.1%.
There was a significant rise in the number of responses
from people who said they were uncertain.
Since May 2013, increasingly more consumers have
expected that prices would rise in the next six months.
Real Estate Investment Indicator
Declines Slightly
Real Estate Investment Sentiment
Real Estate Invest-
ment Sentiment 119.4 110.4 113.2 114.4 114.2 119.1 117.8
Price Expectations 142.4 148.6 147.9 143.8 143.1 152.6 148.6
House Buying 118.1 95.0 92.8 104.8 94.9 107.7 102.8
House Selling 102.2 112.5 101.2 105.4 95.5 102.9 98.2
117.8
100
105
110
115
120
125
-1.11
-1.38
1.33
Price Expectations
House Buying Sentiment
House Selling Sentiment
Real Estate Investment Indicator: Contribution to
Monthly Change (% pt.)

110
120
130
140
150
160
Real Estate Prices: Expected Changes in Next 6
Months
119.1
107.7 102.9
152.6
117.8
102.8 98.2
148.6
Real Estate
Investment
Indicator
House Buying
Sentiment
House Selling
Sentiment
House Price
Expectations
Real Estate Investment Indicator - Components
All India North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Expected Changes in Real Estate Prices in the Next
6 months (% of Households)
Components and Balances
After rising to a series high of 152.6 in February, the
House Price Expectations component slackened to
148.6. The proportion of respondents who thought
house prices would rise in the next six months
declined from 78.3% to 73.5%.
The House Selling Sentiment component, which has
a negative impact on the Real Estate Investment
Indicator, fell below the 100 mark in March to 98.2
from 102.9 in February.
Regions
The Indicator fell in all regions apart from West and
Central India driven by a rise in House Price
Expectations and a decline in House Selling Sentiment.
Respondents in North, South and East India were less
optimistic about future house prices. February 2014
March 2014
Go Up Dramatically
Go Up Slightly
Stay the Same
Gow Down Slightly
Go Down Sharply

80
90
100
110
120
130
House Buying Sentiment
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
House Selling Sentiment
44.4%
30.8%
8.5%
7.8%
4.0%
4.5%
Reasons for Buying Houses (% of Households)
1.7%
26.1%
34.4%
25.5%
3.8%
8.6%
Timing for Selling Houses (% of Households)
Excellent Time
Good Time
Neutral
Bad Time
Very Bad Time
Prices
Income/Purchasing Power
Investment Value
Policy/Interest Rate
Supply and Quality
Others

The Car Purchase Indicator increased to the highest
level in 10 months in March, as car purchase
expectations improved and expectations for the price
of gasoline remained broadly stable.
The indicator rose to 75.3 in March from 73.0 in
February. Even though the indicator was above the
series average of 72.4, it was still below the level seen
during the same month a year earlier.
According to the latest data from the Society of Indian
Automobile Manufacturers, passenger car sales
increased for the first time in five months in February,
to 160,718 units, 1.4% above the previous year. The
rise in car sales was attributed to price discounting
from car manufacturers, following the excise duty
reduction on small cars, two wheelers, and commercial
vehicles to 8% from 12%.
The Car Purchase Expectations component, which
gauges whether consumers believe it is a good or bad
time to purchase a car over the next 12 months, rose
by 5.4% on the month to 108.9, from 103.2 in the
previous month. Positive expectations led the
component to the highest since April 2013, leaving it
1.5% above the level seen in the same period a year
earlier. Of those who thought it would be a good time
to buy a car, a growing proportion believed it offered
good investment value.
The Indicator on Gasoline Prices, which measures
expectations for the price of gasoline in a year, has
remained reasonably high over the past year and it
remained broadly stable at 158.3 in March compared
with 157.2 in February.
Car Purchase Indicator
Highest Since May 2013
50
60
70
80
90
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Car Purchase Indicator - Components
Car Purchase Expectations
Price of Gasoline
Car Purchase Sentiment
Car Purchase
Sentiment 76.6 67.1 65.7 73.8 69.2 73.0 75.3
Car Purchase
Expectations 107.3 98.4 97.7 103.0 99.0 103.2 108.9
Price of Gasoline 154.0 164.1 166.3 155.4 160.6 157.2 158.3
75.3

Regions
108.9
111.2
100.6
119.0
108.5
111.0
All India North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Car Purchase Expectations - Regions
All India North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Reasons for a Bad Time to Buy a Car
(% of Households)
Prices
Supply and Quality
Cost of Use/Upkeep
Others
Reasons for a Good Time to Buy a Car
(% of Households)
All India North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Prices
Supply and Quality
Cost of Use/Upkeep
Others
0.3%
33.5%
34.6%
13.4%
1.6%
16.5%
Is it a Good Time to Buy a Car?
(% of Households)
Excellent
Good Time
Neutral
Bad Time
Very Bad Time

Regions
112.8
133.3
115.3
142.4
127.4 130.0
110.4
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expected
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: North India
90
100
110
120
130
140
Consumer Indicator: North India
120.0
125.7 124.5
114.6 110.9
151.4
115.5
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expected
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: South India
110
115
120
125
130
135
140
Consumer Indicator: South India

112.7
132.5
109.0
128.2 130.5
138.8
116.4
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expected
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: East India
100
110
120
130
140
Consumer Indicator: East India
115.2
135.9
121.7
138.2
128.7
140.8
108.7
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expected
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: West India
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Consumer Indicator: West India

Employment Outlook for the Next 12 Months
(% of Households)
133.0 133.3
127.3
115.3
142.5 139.8
All India North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Expected Interest Rate on House and Car Loans
Indicator
Much Better
A Little Better
About the Same
A Little Worse
Much Worse
116.5
142.1
126.3
149.2
128.0
149.2
106.8
Current
Indicator
Expectations
Indicator
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expected
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
Consumer Indicator Components: Central India
110
115
120
125
130
135
Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14
Consumer Indicator: Central India

All India North India South India East India West India Central India
Is it a Good/Bad Time to Buy Large Household Goods? (% of Households)
North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Interest Rates Expectations
(% of Households)
75.3
69.8
84.7
79.9
71.2 73.7
All India North
India
South
India
East
India
West
India
Central
India
Car Purchase Indicator - Regions
Much Higher
A Little HIgher
About the Same
A Little Lower
Much Lower
Excellent Time
Good Time
Neutral
Bad Time
Very Bad Time

Income Groups
115.1
125.9
117.9
143.6
114.5
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expected
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
< INR 432,000 - Components
129.8
121.2
135.6
123.4
114.8
129.2
128.6
134.8
121.0
139.7
111.3
Personal
Finances:
Current
Personal
Finances:
Expected
Business
Conditions: 1
Year
Business
Conditions: 5
Years
Durable
Buying
Conditions
> INR 432,000 - Components
132.6
123.2
138.9
127.1
120.0
131.9
February 2014
March 2014
February 2014
March 2014

Consumer confidence
declined in both low
and high income
households.
On average, the level of confidence remains greater
for higher income households.

Spitzzeile Titel52
A selection of comments from the panel of
consumers surveyed over the past month.
What the Panel Said

“The price of cars is set to come down since the
Finance Minister announced a reduction in excise
duty on cars.”
“Education and food expenses have gone up so it is
not easy to buy goods like TVs and computers.”
“Many companies are opening in Pune, so business
conditions are better.”
“After the elections, companies will start investing.”
“People like to have vehicles that are big enough and
fuel efficient so many buy diesel cars these days.”
“The price of houses and real estate will increase as
the area is more developed now.”
“If Narendra Modi becomes the Prime Minister, then
business conditions would improve in the coming
year.”
“Most of the companies in Mumbai are moving outside
so business conditions will be a little worse over the next
year.”
“Because of higher daily expenses, a common man can‘t
think about buying a car.”
“Because of the recent riot in Muzzafarnagar, business
was affected a lot but it will surely improve next year.”
“Right now the property market is saturated so after six
months it will be a good time to buy a house.”
“If the government changes, business conditions might
improve.”
“New companies are coming in Patna.”
“The recent rain across India has badly affected vegetable
supplies and will lead to higher prices.”

w
Respondents were
looking forward to
the national
elections in May...
...with an expectation that the new government will
help bring down price pressures.

Spitzzeile Titel 55
A closer look at the data from the March
consumer survey.
Data Tables

North India Overview
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
NorthI India Consumer Indicator 115.1 122.9 125.1 Nov-12 - 121.0 2.2 1.8%
Expectations Indicator 121.9 129.0 133.3 Nov-12 - 128.1 4.3 3.3%
Personal Finance: Current 111.5 121.2 115.3 - Jan-14 116.0 -5.9 -4.9%
Personal Finance: Expected 127.4 133.9 142.4 series high - 134.6 8.5 6.4%
Business Condition: 5 Year 125.0 127.2 130.0 Jun-13 - 127.4 2.8 2.2%
Durable Buying Conditions 98.4 106.2 110.4 Aug-13 - 105.0 4.2 3.9%
Car Purchase Indicator 70.2 74.7 69.8 - Dec-13 71.6 -4.9 -6.6%
Employment Outlook Indicator 107.4 115.3 103.9 - series low 108.9 -11.4 -9.9%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 149.6 156.4 158.3 series high - 154.8 1.9 1.2%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 75.1 71.3 60.8 - Nov-13 69.1 -10.5 -14.8%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 133.1 130.7 133.3 Dec-13 - 132.4 2.6 2.0%

South India Overview
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
South India Consumer Indicator 123.1 135.1 123.4 - Jan-14 127.2 -11.7 -8.7%
Expectations Indicator 126.5 137.0 125.7 - Nov-13 129.7 -11.3 -8.3%
Personal Finance: Expected 120.3 142.0 114.6 - series low 125.6 -27.4 -19.3%
Business Condition: 1 Year 116.6 125.6 110.9 - series low 117.7 -14.7 -11.6%
Durable Buying Conditions 112.6 125.3 115.5 - Jan-14 117.8 -9.8 -7.8%
Stock Investment Indicator 102.0 104.6 98.2 - Nov-13 101.6 -6.4 -6.1%
Car Purchase Indicator 75.4 82.7 84.7 Jun-13 - 80.9 2.0 2.4%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 166.0 156.7 143.6 - Jul-13 155.4 -13.1 -8.4%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 73.5 96.2 64.0 - Mar-13 77.9 -32.2 -33.4%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 137.7 146.8 127.3 - Jun-13 137.3 -19.5 -13.3%

East India Overview
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
East India Consumer Indicator 119.7 129.4 124.6 - Jan-14 124.6 -4.8 -3.7%
Current Indicator 119.3 116.0 112.7 - Sep-13 116.0 -3.3 -2.9%
Personal Finance: Current 118.5 122.3 109.0 - Dec-13 116.6 -13.3 -10.9%
Business Condition: 1 Year 116.9 129.0 130.5 May-13 - 125.5 1.5 1.2%
Durable Buying Conditions 120.1 109.7 116.4 Jan-14 - 115.4 6.7 6.0%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 100.6 113.5 109.3 - Jan-14 107.8 -4.2 -3.7%
Stock Investment Indicator 100.0 - - - - - - -
Car Purchase Indicator 68.8 79.4 79.9 May-13 - 76.0 0.5 0.7%
Inflation Expectations Indicator 135.5 149.8 145.1 - Jan-14 143.5 -4.7 -3.1%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 69.5 65.0 72.3 Oct-13 - 68.9 7.3 11.2%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 130.6 120.4 115.3 - Mar-13 122.1 -5.1 -4.2%

West India Overview
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
West India Consumer Indicator 125.8 126.1 127.6 Dec-12 - 126.5 1.5 1.2%
Current Indicator 114.4 113.9 115.2 Nov-13 - 114.5 1.3 1.2%
Expectations Indicator 133.5 134.3 135.9 Nov-12 - 134.6 1.6 1.2%
Personal Finance: Current 126.0 121.6 121.7 Jan-14 - 123.1 0.1 0.1%
Personal Finance: Expected 136.0 136.6 138.2 Jan-13 - 136.9 1.6 1.2%
Business Condition: 5 Year 136.3 135.2 140.8 Nov-12 - 137.4 5.6 4.1%
Durable Buying Conditions 102.8 106.1 108.7 Nov-13 - 105.9 2.6 2.5%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 115.7 110.9 105.0 - Sep-13 110.5 -5.9 -5.3%
Real Estate Investment Indicator 120.3 114.9 116.8 Jan-14 - 117.3 1.9 1.6%
Car Purchase Indicator 64.4 62.9 71.2 Dec-13 - 66.2 8.3 13.3%
Employment Outlook Indicator 119.3 119.7 120.2 Dec-13 - 119.7 0.5 0.4%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 79.8 69.7 70.6 Jan-14 - 73.4 0.9 1.3%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 141.3 134.2 142.5 Nov-13 - 139.3 8.3 6.2%

Central India Overview
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Central India Consumer Indicator 117.1 125.9 131.9 Apr-13 - 125.0 6.0 4.7%
Current Indicator 108.6 113.1 116.5 Dec-13 - 112.7 3.4 3.0%
Expectations Indicator 122.7 134.4 142.1 Apr-13 - 133.1 7.7 5.7%
Personal Finance: Current 119.1 113.9 126.3 Apr-13 - 119.8 12.4 10.8%
Personal Finance: Expected 130.0 133.6 149.2 Apr-13 - 137.6 15.6 11.6%
Current Business Conditions Indicator 97.3 114.8 97.5 - Jan-14 103.2 -17.3 -15.1%
Stock Investment Indicator 133.3 116.7 - - - - - -
Real Estate Investment Indicator 115.5 118.3 125.7 series high - 119.8 7.4 6.3%
Car Purchase Indicator 69.1 70.1 73.7 Dec-13 - 71.0 3.6 5.2%
Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 77.3 65.6 76.3 Jan-14 - 73.1 10.7 16.3%
Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 129.1 136.1 139.8 Sep-13 - 135.0 3.7 2.8%

All India Overview by Age
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Age 18-34
Current Indicator 118.0 117.1 114.5 - Sep-13 116.5 -2.6 -2.2%
Personal Finance: Current 124.2 124.6 121.1 - Sep-13 123.3 -3.5 -2.9%
Durable Buying Conditions 111.8 109.7 108.0 - Sep-13 109.8 -1.7 -1.5%
Age 35-54
Personal Finance: Current 121.3 127.9 119.4 - Aug-13 122.9 -8.5 -6.7%
Age 55-64
MNI India Consumer Indicator 116.9 120.5 127.3 series high - 121.6 6.8 5.7%
Current Indicator 106.2 109.8 114.1 Dec-13 - 110.0 4.3 3.9%
Expectations Indicator 124.0 127.6 136.1 series high - 129.2 8.5 6.7%
Personal Finance: Expected 119.8 128.6 131.9 Dec-12 - 126.8 3.3 2.5%
Durable Buying Conditions 102.6 101.9 114.6 Jul-13 - 106.4 12.7 12.5%

All India - Overview by Income
Highest
Since
Lowest
Since
3-Month
Average
Monthly
Change
Monthly %
Change
Personal Finance: Current 121.9 127.0 115.1 - Jul-13 121.3 -11.9 -9.4%
Business Condition: 1 Year 118.1 130.5 117.9 - Dec-13 122.2 -12.6 -9.6%
Business Condition: 1 Year 121.6 128.0 121.0 - Sep-13 123.5 -7.0 -5.4%

Methodology
The MNI India Consumer Sentiment Survey is a wide
ranging monthly survey of consumer confidence
across India.
Data is collected via telephone interviews. At least
1,000 interviews are conducted each month across
the country.
The survey adopts a similar methodology to the
University of Michigan survey of U.S. consumer
sentiment.
The main MNI India Consumer Indicator is derived
from five questions, two on current conditions and
three on future expectations:
1) Current personal financial situation compared to a
year ago
2) Current willingness to buy major household items
3) Personal financial situation one year from now
4) Overall business conditions one year from now
5) Overall business conditions for the next 5 years
Indicators relating to specific questions in the report
are diffusion indices with 100 representing a neutral
level, meaning positive and negative answers are
equal. Values above 100 indicate increasing positivity
while values below show increasing negativity.

Published by
MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group
Westferry House
11 Westferry Circus
London
E14 4HE
www.mni-indicators.com
@MNIIndicators.com
Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse
Group.
Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is
prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.

MNI India Consumer Report 2014-03

Recomendados

Recomendados

Mais conteúdo relacionado

Mais procurados

Mais procurados (20)

Destaque

Destaque (11)

Semelhante a MNI India Consumer Report 2014-03

Semelhante a MNI India Consumer Report 2014-03 (17)

Mais de MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group

Mais de MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group (19)

Último

Último (20)

MNI India Consumer Report 2014-03