The retail real estate market in Poland is strong and still growing. There are currently 360 shopping centers in Poland totaling over 8.38 million square meters, but the market is still undersaturated. Many new shopping center projects are planned for cities like Krakow, Torun, Kalisz, and Gorzow Wielkopolski. Investors are also increasingly focusing on smaller towns and convenience stores under 5,000 square meters. Overall, 2012 looks to be a promising year for the Polish retail real estate market with more projects launching and growth in smaller cities.

1. mapic
the retail world in 2012
The most important topics to look at in 2012
Retail real estate in 2012
10 Editors-in-Chief from the
international press share their vision
We asked MAPIC’s international media
partners: what are the three most important
PIC
Exclusive to MA
issues for the retail real estate industry in 2012?
We thank all those who took part and hope that
you will enjoy reading their answers as much
as we did! Their articles give a perfect snapshot
of major international trends for 2012 as well as
the nuances of each local market.
36 37 38 39 40
Centros Comerciales Commercial Real
Nuevo modelo de retail Estate Estate Gazette Eurobuild Immobilien Zeitung
en un momento de Economy is the threat The retail market in
New Cities, New Der Laden um die Ecke
cambio but digital remains the Poland has not
Formats, New Brands kann die Keimzelle eines
challenge overheated
* New retail model in a
time of change
Weltkonzerns sein
Today’s corner shop
* could be tomorrow’s
global retail giant
41 42 43 45 46
Property Investor Property EU Sites Commerciaux
Magaza Dergisi Europe Run on retail continues Retail Property La ville est très
2012’ de Perakende MAPIC 2011 flouts Analyst importante ; la périphérie
Dünyasi Cannes echos of dramatic l’est aussi
Wish you were here?
* The retail world in
2012
euro, economic events Postcards from the
* City centres are
abyss extremely important;
the suburbs are too
* Please note that we have chosen to publish some articles in their original language.
English translations are available at blog.mipimworld.com
35

2. the retail world in 2012
The most important topics to look at in 2012, by
www.revistacentroscomerciales.com
Marta Reñones es
licenciada en Periodismo
por la Universidad
Complutense de Madrid.
Comenzó su carrera
Nuevo modelo de retail English version here
profesional hace ya más
de una década como
documentalista en
en un momento de cambio varias empresas y
redactora del diario El
Mundo. Actualmente es
El escenario económico que ha dejado tras de sí la crisis mundial está la redactora jefa de la
afectando a la industria del retail desde el primer momento revista CENTROS
COMERCIALES.
En 2012, cuando ya todos queremos ver un financiación, que se ha ido agudizando
poco de luz al final de túnel, será necesario con el paso del tiempo desde que se inició
que el sector se adapte a la nueva situación la crisis. Ahora, cobran importancia las
– menos financiación para acometer transacciones, quitándole el puesto a los
proyectos nuevos, menor poder adquisitivo nuevos proyectos, que no terminan de
de las familias debido al aumento del volver a despegar; asimismo las reformas y
desempleo, nuevas formas de consumir, ampliaciones puesto que en la mayoría de
etc. –. los casos, los suelos están amortizados. En
Uno de los puntos a tener en cuenta es el España, todos los inversores que se
modelo de gestión comercial. Los interesan por la adquisición de centros son
responsables de los centros comerciales extranjeros, suelen ser empresas cotizadas
deben variar su forma de gestionar las que no requieren financiación externa,
partidas presupuestarias. Es necesario que sino que cuentan con fondos propios.
ahorren costes (por ejemplo mediante la Debido a que las rentabilidades están
implantación de sistemas de eficiencia bajando en países económicamente más
energética o renegociando los contratos fuertes, España podría ser, en 2012, una
con los proveedores de servicios) y que oportunidad para estos fondos que buscan
dediquen un mayor esfuerzo al marketing. rentabilidades un poco más altas –
Deben adaptarse a las nuevas técnicas de actualmente se encuentran en torno al
comunicación (redes sociales, encuentros 6,5% –.
profesionales, canales de televisión…). Y El nuevo consumidor o la nueva forma de
por supuesto, deben prestar atención al consumir es otra de las preocupaciones de
crecimiento de las ventas online, ver este los profesionales del retail. El cliente es
nuevo canal como positivo e intentar cada vez más exigente y con la crisis ha
reorientar su negocio para convertir cambiado sus hábitos de consumo. Es
internet en un aliado. necesario que los comerciantes y los
Otro tema de interés es el nuevo escenario gestores adapten su modelo a las
en cuanto a la inversión en el mercado necesidades del consumidor. Deben
inmobiliario del retail. El principal proporcionarle una experiencia de compra
problema en toda Europa es la falta de especial si quieren fidelizarlo.
36

3. mapic
the retail world in 2012
The most important topics to look at in 2012, by
New Cities, New Formats,
New Brands
Russia is too large a market to be homogeneous. While large cities
are saturated with retail space and anticipate the entry of new
European retail formats, small regional cities need at least one
completed quality project
The Russian retail real estate market keeps analysts believe, will be interesting not
growing mainly due to regional expansion. only for Moscow and Saint Petersburg,
The most important trend mentioned by but for other developed markets too. For
nearly all developers today is keener example, Yekaterinburg with its 26 CRE magazine,
interest in the cities with half a million shopping centers having the aggregated published in Russian
plus population. Until recently experts built space of 1,013,000 sq m is in need of and English twice a
considered only a limited circle of million- extensive, rather than intensive month, is the leading
plus cities. Apart from Moscow and Saint development. Saturation with retail space publication on
Petersburg, this list included Yekaterinburg, is a formidable sign for developers. As Rafael commercial real estate
Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod... Now reported by London Consulting & Khaybrakhmanov
in Russia. The
Editor in Chief
developers are ready to enter even small Management Company, the average magazine covers all
cities located far from the capital city. The recoupment time for retail properties in segments of the
city of Surgut (about 309,000 residents) in the Urals capital is in the range of 5-9 market. Circulation:
the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area is years and depends on their specific 20,000 copies.
one of the most vivid examples. Two characteristics – above all, on their
Commercial Real
shopping and entertainment centers are location and concept. Yekaterinburg-
about to open their doors here almost at based players point out that in some cases Estate magazine is a
one time – 154,000 sq m and 100,000 sq m, the payoff time may reach 12 years and part of the Impress
respectively. Thanks to these two projects, more because of oversaturation with retail Media, Marketing
such retail chains as O’Key, M.video, space. On the other hand, the city with the Publishing House.
Cinemapark, Sportmaster, Detskiy Mir population of 1.3 million cannot but
and MediaMarkt will make their debut on arrest the attention of developers. New www.impressmedia.ru
the local market. This is rather an retail formats will open new prospects
exception from the general rule, to be sure, before the developers. www.cre.ru
since consultants, talking about the most
promising regional cities, mention And lastly, new brands: shopping centers via the Internet, which is similar to the
Novosibirsk, Nizhny Novgorod, Samara, feel an acute need for unique and Auchan Drive project in France. The
Chelyabinsk and Rostov-on-Don, in the unmatched brands that have never been inauguration of Auchanauto is scheduled
first place – that is the cities with more represented on the Russian market. At the for next year. IKEA contemplates the
than one million population. Meanwhile present time each SC features a more or opening of stand-alone stores (for now
the deliberate and announced trend less standard pool of tenants. But already IKEA has accommodated its stores only
towards development of a huge market of this year has seen the entry of new players. in MEGA malls in Russia) and has started
the cities with half a million population is Thus early in September, the first store of negotiations with landlords. The German
already an important step forward for the American brand “Banana Republic”, Metro Group has decided to apply its
Russia where the basic development trading in clothes and accessories, opened Polish experience to Russia and to open a
pattern follows the path from the national its doors in Moscow. Victoria’s Secret chain of “corner” shops with rentable
capital to regional centers and only then comfortably lodged at the Mega Teply space varying between 40 and 100 sq m
to smaller cities and towns. Stan mall. However many retail chains do under a new brand unrelated to Metro,
not have the guts to launch regional using the franchising system, and so on.
The second trend that will come to the expansion. It’s difficult to forecast the activity of the
fore on the market in the coming year is retail segment in Russia in the year 2012.
the emergence of new retail formats, Another tendency at the juncture of the To date it is the retail segment of commercial
outlet centers in particular. For now two above-mentioned trends will definitely real estate market that has been the most
Russia does not have a single facility in gather momentum in 2012: we mean that attractive in the regions for investors, as it
this format. The inauguration of the first retail operators are keen on the accounted for more than 90% of all
outlet centers – Fashion House Moscow development of new formats. In particular transactions completed in H1 of 2011.
and Outlet Village Belaya Dacha – has Auchan announced its readiness to open Besides Saint Petersburg, Kaluga, Irkutsk,
been announced in Moscow for late 2011 the first storage-type store in Moscow that Izhevsk, Kaliningrad and Volgograd have
– early 2012. Meanwhile new formats, the operates by the principle of preordering also been popular with investors.
37

4. the retail world in 2012
The most important topics to look at in 2012, by
Estates Gazette is the
UK’s leading
commercial property
title, covering the retail,
Damian Wild office, industrial and
Editor
residential sectors in
print and online.
To view all we offer go to
www.estatesgazette.com
www.estatesgazette.com
Economy is the threat but Topics
It’s the economy, stupid
digital remains the challenge Time to embrace digital
High street renaissance?
The challenges to the retail sector will come thick and fast in 2012.
Consumers may be embracing the web, but are they ready to fall back
in love with the high street?
It may be a decade since the maxim kept UK, was almost certainly unprecedented. 25bp to 1.25% suggests acknowledgement
the Clinton campaign bus on the road, Meanwhile it’s been an awful year for high that the Eurozone’s debt crisis is impacting
but today “it’s the economy, stupid” is a streets in the UK. Vacancy rates in some the wider economy. Does the bank have the
principle that developers, investors, town centres are approaching 30% while courage to take bolder steps to prevent the
landlords and retailers themselves neglect almost two-thirds of towns have seen shop crisis deepening? Many have their doubts.
at their peril. vacancy levels increase by more than 10% And then there’s the impact of digital, the
Depending on your point of view the over the past three years. single biggest medium-term influence.
outlook for the year ahead varies from As well as the tough trading conditions, Groupon and its ilk continue to march
troublesome to unimaginably dreadful. this summer’s riots affected city centre while Amazon has launched its customer
Twelve months ago few would have premises in London and beyond. A collection lockers in the UK. Sited at Land
countenanced the collapse of the euro or a government review, led by retail guru Securities’ One New Change in the City of
slowdown in emerging economies of a Mary Portas, is pending. Consumers say London, it’s a further bridging of the
sharpness to match the contraction in the they want the high street to survive. But divide between the virtual and the physical.
west. But today neither feels impossible. with the British Council of Shopping Their presence in Europe is only weeks
Surveys indicate the UK economy is likely Centres predicting that more than one in old but already some asset managers
to contract in Q4. Meanwhile the 10 UK stores could remain vacant in the complain that they are running shopping
withdrawal this month of bellweather long term, will they vote with their wallets? centres not post offices. In this climate
retailer John Lewis from the £700m Look wider and the European Central though they will take rental income where
Tithebarn shopping scheme in Preston, Bank’s decision to cut interest rates by they can find it.
38

5. mapic
the retail world in 2012
The most important topics to look at in 2012, by
The Galeria Wilanów shopping
centre in Warsaw is a joint project
of Polnord and GTC
Eurobuild CEE is a
B2B magazine
published in two
languages (Polish and
English) and is one of
Radosław Górecki the most important
Deputy Editor
monthlies devoted to
the topics of real
estate, investment and
architecture in Central
and Eastern Europe.
www.eurobuildcee.com
The retail market in Topics
The retail market in Poland
Poland has not overheated is unsaturated
There are now 360
shopping centres in Poland
Next year looks to be an extremely promising one for the shopping Investors have turned their
centre market: more spectacular projects are to be launched while the attention to smaller towns
retail market in smaller towns will thrive
The retail sector in Poland has a bright construction of a shopping centre in However, the retail sector does not just
future ahead of it. Experts are stressing Warsaw’s Białołeka district (60,000 sq m). consist of huge projects alone. More and
that this sector of the property market is However, there are many more new more investors are showing an interest in
still unsaturated, both in terms of the projects to come. Shopping centres are smaller towns. You could even go as far as
number of projects and the presence of soon to be opened in Kraków, Torun, to say that 2012 will be the year of
international retail chains. According Kalisz and Gorzów Wielkopolski. ‘convenience stores’, which have areas not
Colliers International’s data, there are 360 Neinver’s spectacular new project in exceeding 5,000 sq m. One such example
modern shopping centres currently Katowice is also currently under is the newly-born ‘Czerwona Torebka’
operating in Poland with a combined area construction. In spite of the fact that banks [Red Bag] concept – the founders of the
of more than 8.38 mln sqm. Another still regard the financing of new projects Eurocash, Biedronka and Zabka chains
215,000 sq m is to be opened within the with a large degree of caution (you have to have announced that they will build as
next six months. And this is not all. The have at least 30 pct of your own many as 1,950 Czerwona Torebka centres
biggest market players are preparing more contribution and preliminary contracts across Poland over the next ten years.
projects. These include Globe Trade signed for at least 50–60 pct of the leasable To sum up, 2012 looks to be an outstanding
Centre, which has announced the area in order to qualify for finance), there year for the retail sector. Substantial
development of Galeria Wilanów, a huge is lots of cash flowing in from investment demand from investment funds and the
project (76,000 sq m) to be built in funds. At the moment three or four funds launches of new, major projects are raising
Wilanów, one of the most thriving districts are interested in buying every shopping hopes that Poland will stand out proudly
of Warsaw. GTC will also be starting the centre that comes onto the market. on the European real estate market map.
39

6. the retail world in 2012
The most important topics to look at in 2012, by
Der Laden um die Ecke English version here
kann die Keimzelle eines
Weltkonzerns sein
Alle paar Wochen
eröffnet eine
internationale
Filialkette ihren
ersten Laden in
Die Immobilien
Deutschland.
Zeitung mit ihrem
Werden Primark, Online-Auftritt www.
Vapiano oder TK iz.de zählt zu den
Maxx den führenden deutschen
deutschen Konsum Christoph V. Fachzeitschriften für
verändern wie es Schwanenflug
Redakteur die Immobilienwirts-
Ikea, H&M und Immobilien Zeitung chaft. Sie gehört zur
McDonald’s getan Verlagsgruppe
haben? Deutscher Fachverlag,
Frankfurt.
www.iz.de
Topics
Wer wird der nächste H&M?
Wer wird der nächste Ikea?
Wer wird der nächste
McDonald’s?
Ikea, H&M und McDonald’s haben den und McDonald’s spielen? Diese Frage Möbeldesigner kopierte. McDonald’s
Konsum in Deutschland revolutioniert. stellen sich auch Vermieter, vor allem hat sich durchgesetzt, obwohl viele
Ikea hat die deutsche Eiche endgültig aus solche, die nicht einen, sondern 50, 100 Eltern ihren Kindern verboten haben,
den deutschen Wohnzimmern vertrieben. oder gar 500 Läden zu vermieten haben. dort essen zu gehen.
H&M liefert den jungen Menschen im Primark wird immer wieder genannt, weil
Land ihre Alltagsmode, und McDonald’s die irische Firma Textilien verkauft wie Auch Vapiano, der expansivste deutsche
ist das einzige Lokal, in dem der Milliardär Aldi Lebensmittel. TK Maxx erweitert System-Gastronom, hat einmal klein
Seit’ an Seit’ mit dem Hartz-IV-Empfänger sein Filialnetz beharrlich. Woolworth, angefangen. Als das Bonner Unternehmen
isst. Ikea, H&M und McDonald’s sind so nebenbei bemerkt, ist auch auf dem besten vor acht, neun Jahren seine ersten Lokale
sehr Teil der deutschen Alltagskultur Weg, wieder das Kaufhaus von nebenan eröffnete, mussten die Vermieter lange
geworden, dass man ganz vergessen hat, zu werden, das es jahrzehntelang war. überredet werden. Pizza und Pasta schien
dass sie ursprünglich gar nicht aus es in Deutschland doch schon genug zu
Deutschland kommen. Sie sind erfolgreich, Hennes & Mauritz, wie es in seiner geben. Inzwischen ist Vapiano auf vier
weil sie einen Markt kreiert haben, den es Frühzeit in Deutschland noch genannt Kontinenten vertreten. Vor einiger Zeit
vorher nicht gab. Irgendwann haben aber wurde, hat am Anfang ziemlich hat sich die Milliardärsfamilie Herz
auch sie ihren ersten Laden bzw. ihr erstes ausgeflippte Sachen verkauft. Hätte 1980 (Tchibo) beteiligt. Was lernen wir
Lokal hierzulande eröffnet. (erster Laden in Hamburg) jemand daraus? Niemand kann vorher genau
gedacht, dass die Schweden einmal in wissen, welches Potenzial in einem
Welcher Einzelhändler, der in letzter Zeit der Fußgängerzone von Pirmasens Konzept steckt. Der kleine Laden um die
nach Deutschland gekommen ist, könnte vertreten sein würden? Ikea wurde Ecke kann die Keimzelle eines
eine ähnlich große Rolle wie Ikea, H&M abgetan, weil es ja angeblich nur andere Weltkonzerns sein.
40

7. mapic
the retail world in 2012
The most important topics to look at in 2012, by
2012’de Perakende Dünyası English version here
Okan Aras
www.pebev.com
www.magazadergisi.com
-
-
- -
-
-
-
-
-
-
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- -
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8. the retail world in 2012
The most important topics to look at in 2012, by
MAPIC 2011 promises
opportunities beyond
the Euro crisis
MAPIC 2011 takes place in Cannes in the very same Palais des
Congrès that just a few weeks ago resounded with some of the most
dramatic political events seen in Europe in recent years: the G20
Summit deliberating on a Greek drama.
The venue thus sets the tenor for European experience into a social and entertainment
retail for, despite its general good health, event for the family. Footfall, as always,
the sector is far from immune to external remains the holy grail.
economic events. Still, as the themes at
MAPIC 2011 show, the industry is on a One keen observer of the European retail PIE Mission Statement
structural path of modernisation, landscape is Stephan Wundrak, director The mission of Property
refurbishment and re-thinking not entirely of European property research at Investor Europe is to
determined by cycles, and is a hive of Henderson Global Investors. The group’s bring transparency to
activity. Panelists at PIE’s recent Russia Warburg Henderson joint venture in Allan Saunderson mainland Europe real
Property Breakfast, for instance, pointed to summer paid €61m for the Tuna Park mall estate for US & global
the huge potential of that nation’s emerging in the Swedish city of Eskilstuna for its investment
retail. The low 13% income tax rate and Henderson European Core Property Fund professionals. PIE is
buoyant economic base have generated a No. 1. Wundrak says that even if investors uniquely published in
rich and growing middle class, around should be more careful amid the euro-
English from Frankfurt,
10m-strong, with rapidly rising disposable related financial market swings, he is
with editors around
income and consumption needs. starting to advise clients to take a little
more risk in retail and move out of core Europe. PIE reaches
MAPIC 2011 Country Of Honour is Italy, assets, which have become very expensive. over 70,000 institutional
where a flurry of retail activity is bringing professionals via PIE
new greenfield and downtown retail “Everyone likes the Nordics and Germany Dailies, and in print
development and a fertile base for but there is a premium to be paid for these monthly to 4,000-5,000
investment. Australia’s Westfield is markets,” Wundrak told PIE last month. targeted subscribers and
planning a €1bn regional mall in Milan Henderson has always been a retail others.
and has agreed to acquire a 50% interest in specialist. After Germany, it is mainly
a 60 ha site near Milan’s Linate airport in active in the UK but its fund allocation
a joint venture with Gruppo Stilo. Swedish there is full. “There is a strong interest in
furniture giant IKEA is earmarking €1bn Sweden but we have only managed to close www.pie-mag.com
for new superstores; and that is not even to Tuna Park near Stockholm due to quite
mention Hines Italia’s Porta Nuova project strong competition,” he says. “We would
in Milan, nearing completion, or the Santa like to spend a lot of money in France but
Giulia project coveted by a consortium we can’t find the product at the right price.
that includes Chinese interests. Retail is hard to come by and office is
extremely expensive.” In Germany,
One theme at MAPIC 2011 is multi- Henderson is buying retail warehouses
channelling - retailing strategies that where net yields are around 6.5% and
combine internet marketing with physical leverage can be put on at 50%. The huge
store sales, whether malls or high streets. advantage for Henderson clients in the
Another topic will be re-generation: how nation, mainly insurance companes and
to revitalise existing premises, particularly pension funds, is the massive yield pickup
malls, bringing them into line with modern over German Bund sovereign bonds,
requirements and establishing customer currently returning under 2% - too low to
enticements that turn the shopping service their long-term liabilities.
42

9. mapic
the retail world in 2012
The most important topics to look at in 2012, by
Run on retail continues
European retail property has remained institutional heavyweights including
resilient since the collapse of Lehman sovereign wealth funds are also entering
Brothers, but the eurozone crisis will the arena and global players from outside
continue to cast its shadow over the sector Europe are getting into the act as well. At
in 2012 and beyond. As fears of a break- end-October, US pension fund TIAA-
up and a double-dip recession widen, retail CREF acquired the Perlacher
landlords are growing ever more concerned Einkaufsparadies (PEP) shopping centre
about what this will mean for their assets. in Munich for a record low yield of sub
With anaemic GDP growth a best-case 5%. In France, the National Pension
scenario in view of the severe austerity Service of South Korea recently bought a
measures being implemented across further 24% interest in O’Parinor shopping
Europe, consumer spending will inevitably centre near Paris from UK REIT
slow and retail sales will be hit. Against Hammerson, taking its interest in the
this bleak economic backdrop, winds of centre to 75%. As the spending spree on
change are also sweeping through the prime retail continues, a shortage of
sector. In the latest instalment of its Retail product looms and the gap with secondary
2020 study entitled ‘The New Retail assets is set to widen further. Judi Seebus is Editor
Rulebook: 5 Key Lessons from the Future’, in chief of PropertyEU,
Jones Lang LaSalle predicts that by 2020, Germany has been a point of gravity for the pan-European
more than 50% of all non-food retail retail investors of all types and the country portal for real estate
transactions will be digitally influenced in outpaced the UK for the first time in the
professionals.
mature markets. third quarter of this year. Given the size
Stay in touch with the
and depth of the market, it will likely
While the big listed investors and institutional remain a key target in the coming year as dealmakers in Europe
players continue to target core properties in well. Another development that is likely to via our daily digital
prime locations, dominance in big catchment gain momentum is the growth of new newsletter and
areas alone is not enough to win over alliances between equity players and monthly magazine.
consumers. Consumer spending patterns specialist operators. Indeed, a shift is
are becoming less predictable and visible among some of the bigger global
consumer profiles more complex in our institutional players in their bid to gain www.propertyeu.info
highly competitive global market. A recent more control over investment decisions.
report by CBRE revealed that men are
replacing women as shoppers of the future. While pension funds have long been in the
‘Across Europe, two in five people (40%) market through blind pool funds and
now shop online – and it’s men not women specialist investment vehicles, increasingly
that are driving the charge,’ the adviser they are deploying capital directly or co-
said. As ecommerce continues to penetrate investing through joint ventures with
all levels of society and all generations, the specialist operating partners. The
number of e-drives and click-and-collect Canadians have been particularly active
depots will expand further. on this front, with Canadian Pension Plan
Investment Board (CPPIB) leading the
Over the past decade, shopping centres way with its alliance with Dutch pension
have delivered average total returns of just fund APG and Westfield at Stratford City
under 10% a year and retail performance mall in East London. In May, CPPIB
has also been less volatile than other made its first step in mainland Europe
sectors. But in the current environment, a with the purchase of a 50% stake in the
major driver behind the wall of equity massive Centro Oberhausen shopping
targeting the European retail sector is no centre in Germany and more recently
longer capital growth but capital HOOPP, the manager of healthcare
Topics
preservation. Against a background of workers’ retirement plans in Ontario,
nervous equity markets and low-yielding acquired two malls in the Czech Republic
Winds of change sweep
bonds, there has been a run on prime retail in partnership with Meyer Bergman. In
through the sector
property and the competition continues to the coming year, rich Gulf states and
grow. Established players such as wealth funds from Asia and Australia are Capital preservation
Henderson and ING REIM*, the big likely to start knocking on European doors heads the wish list
specialist REITs such as Unibail-Rodamco as well. Specialists & investors
and Corio and the German open-ended band together
funds have been around for some time. But * Now part of CBRE Investors
43

10. mapic
the retail world in 2012
The most important topics to look at in 2012, by
Recession, what recession?
Westfield and Forever 21 signal
direction for 2012
For exclusive and
in-depth analysis of
the retail and real
estate markets in
Europe, Retail Property
Mark Faithfull Analyst provides
Editor
concise and insightful
information on the
crucial trends across
the continent. Our goal
is to explain, not just
report, the big news.
www.retailpropertyanalyst.com
Wish you were here? Topics
Lack of liquidity maintains
Postcards from the abyss logjam
Quick-fix asset
management to dominate
MAPIC approaches with crippling macro-economic uncertainty across Unpredictable consumers
Europe threatening to come to a head. But Mark Faithfull asks whether set the agenda
the doomsayers might just be missing the point
Investment caution, bank reluctance to crisis, so the banks and institutional really be concerning investors is consumer
right-price distressed property and investors - holding a whole lot of retail behaviour and just how damned annoying
nervous European retailers, set against a stock they don’t want - have refused to put it is. Those who remained cautious during
background of the eurozone crisis. Ouch! on a fire sale. The result, frustratingly for the boom years (like the French and
But, you know, 2012 might not be so bad the equity houses bursting with Germans) will not spend their way out of
after all. institutional money to allocate, has been recession and previous big spenders (the
Of course that depends on who and where that the predicted slump in capital values UK, Ireland, the southern Mediterranean)
you are. If you own or run a small store on has not materialised. It probably won’t in are feeling the pinch. Retailers who cannot
a provincial high street in Western Europe, 2012 either, although a gradual release of combine value, accessibility and cache
especially the UK or Ireland, you may stock would give the market some hugely will suffer long and hard in 2012 and so
want to turn away now. If you own or needed liquidity. will those centres which rely upon them.
lease within a big shiny shopping centre in Postcard 2: That means the smart money And what consumers do spend is
a prime location in one of Europe’s will be spent on quick fixes in 2012, increasingly not in-store.
principal cities, then things really aren’t so improving existing centres to polish up Out here at the abyss there are certainly
bad. But the issue that will surely dominate capital values and – a mantra for the next plenty of doomsday scenarios to pick
2012, other than ongoing polarisation, is 12 months – income generation. But this from. But for those prepared to embrace
who faces up to where we are: the abyss. will be a year for cost-effective the change and to build a new business
Postcard one: Just as Europe’s politicians optimisation, not grand redesigns. model, 2012 might not be the holiday
have failed to grapple with the eurozone Postcard 3: However, the issue that should from hell after all.
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11. mapic
the retail world in 2012
The most important topics to look at in 2012, by
Family Village
Alain Boutigny est
directeur de “La
Correspondance de
L’Enseigne” (newsletter
hebdomadaire
s’adressant aux
enseignes, promoteurs
et investisseurs) et de
“Sites commerciaux”
(mensuel à l’attention
des commerçants,
opérateurs de centres
commerciaux et
conseils immobiliers)
www.sites-commerciaux.com
La ville est très importante ; English version here
la périphérie l’est aussi Thèmes
La ville est encensée
Le discours sur la reconquête du centre-ville dont les politiques nous La périphérie est décriée
rebattent les oreilles ne doit pas cacher le besoin d’équipements de Le commerce aime les
commerce dont la périphérie a évidemment besoin deux
Les tartes à la crème ont ceci de formidable “assez”, “pas vraiment” ou “pas du tout” Et voilà que la foule des banlieues, privée
que l’on peut en manger dans tous les votre centre-ville ?” leur a demandé Tns. de ses centres commerciaux et de ses retail
établissements où la réflexion fait défaut. Eh bien, croyez-le ou non : 71 % répondent parks, viendrait faire ses emplettes intra-
Prenez par exemple le retour au centre-ville “pas vraiment” (13 %), “pas du tout” (4 %) muros, additionnerait la foule du travail à
dont les politiques nous rebattent les oreilles. ou “assez” (54 % – autrement dit “m... celle des promeneurs, un peu comme un
Le projet de loi Ollier (qui a du plomb dans ouais”). Seuls 27 % affirment “beaucoup”. dimanche en semaine. On aura beau
l’aile) ne parle que de cela : des centralités Ce n’est pas grand-chose, vous l’avouerez... construire des immeubles sur les
urbaines, de cette mauvaise herbe qu’est la De là, on tire néanmoins des plans sur la immeubles, ajouter des mètres carrés de
périphérie et de cet amour infini des comète. On dit que les zones suburbaines vente aux mètres carrés de vente et
populations pour le cœur de nos cités. sont sans lendemain, que les commerces organiser les transports les plus efficaces
Billevesées ! Les Français n’aiment pas qui s’y trouvent n’ont rien à y faire et que possible, on ne poussera pas bien loin les
leur centre-ville tant que ça. Ils l’affirment le prix de l’essence leur aura bientôt donné murs de la ville : un concept historique et
du reste sans ambages, faisant mentir les le coup de grâce. Inversement, les jolis affectif, certes, mais parfaitement limité.
élites qui se permettent de parler pour cœurs de villes parleraient d’amour avec Et que l’automobile, l’avion, l’autoroute
eux. Dans un sondage paru cette année, leurs ruelles inaccessibles, leurs parkings et le Tgv ont enterré depuis longtemps.
cette “bof attitude” crève les yeux. insuffisants et leur capacité d’accueil Elle restera précieuse, bien sûr : tout
“Diriez-vous que vous aimez “beaucoup”, impossible à augmenter. autant que les grottes de Lascaux.
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