Presentation for 2018 Massachusetts Sustainable Communities and Campuses Conference in Plymouth, MA

1. Climate Change Adaptation
Planning in Boston
Ellen M. Douglas, PE, PhD
Associate Professor, School for the Environment
University of Massachusetts Boston

2. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC AR5, 9/27/13) finds that:
• it is “unequivocal” that Earth’s climate is
warming.
• Since the 1950’s, it is “extremely likely” that
human emission have been the dominant
cause of the rise in global temperature.
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis—Summary for Policymakers.
Climate change is happening and
humans are the predominant cause.

3. 20th century contributors to GMSL rise
IPCC AR5 2013
Thermal expansion of ocean water and glacier melt has been
the biggest contributor to GMSL.
0.9 ± 0.4 mm/yr
Antarctica: 0.3 ± 0.1
mm/yr
Greenland: 0.3 ± 0.1
mm/yr
1.1 ± 0.3
mm/yr
0.4 ± 0.1
mm/yr
Impoundment & groundwater

4. Potential 21st century contributors
to GMSL rise
IPCC AR5 2013
Ice sheet melt and the ice-sheet “finger print is potentially
the biggest contributor in 21st C.
0.6 m
~60 m
Greenland: 7m
West Antarctic Ice Sheet: 5m
East Antarctic Ice Sheet: 52m

5. Sea-level rise in New England is not (and
will not) be the same as GMSL rise
 Mass redistribution (elastic gravitational
and rotational effects)

6. ICE SHEET
“FINGERPRINT’
A
DC
B
Figure 1-1. Fingerprints of spatially variable sea-level rise arising from melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (A),
the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (B), the East Antarctic Ice Sheet (C) and alpine glaciers and ice caps (D). The
location of Boston is shown with a star. Shading represents the meters (arbitrary units) of sea-level rise that
would occur if each of these land-based ice reservoirs were to contribute a meter of equivalent GMSL rise.
(DeConto et al., 2016: Chapter 1 in BRAG report)

7. Coastal Flooding and
Environmental Justice:
Identifying Vulnerable Communities
and Feasible Adaptation Strategies
for the Boston Metro Area
Ellen Douglas1, Paul Kirshen2, Chris Watson1,
Jack Wiggin1, Michael Paolisso3, Ashley Enrici3
1University of Massachusetts, Boston
2Battelle
3University of Maryland, College Park

9. East Boston Adaptation
 Protection: “hard”(sea walls) or “soft”
(beach/dune) measures
 combination of the two most likely. Lots of
constraints (ie., DPA, densely urbanized).
 Accommodation: “floodproofing” of
homes and buildings
 residents can’t afford this on their own; many
are residents are rentors, not property owners.
 Temporary evacuation:
 Current plan inadequate, facilities flooded,
tunnel access, no place to go.
 Retreat:
 Absolutely not an option for East Bostonians

10. 10
Climate Change Adaptation in East
Boston; Workshop I,
Understanding the Issues
Paul Kirshen, NOAH and others
May 13, 2014
Objective: Exchange of the values and points
of view of neighborhood and agency
stakeholders in creating an East Boston that is
resilient to the present and future impacts of
sea level rise, coastal storms, and extreme
precipitation.

11. Neighborhood Delegate Groups:
• Orient Heights/Star of the Sea
• Eagle Hill and Central Square
• Maverick Landing and Jeffries Point
Implementation Agency Groups:
11
What is Important to Protect?

12. Regional Solution for 2100
1N, 4N, 4S
12
Flood Wall
Temporary
Road Barrier
Landscaped berm

13. Innovative Barriers
13

14. Building Floodproofing
14

15. 15

16. 16
ClimateCARE
2016- 2018

17. Ellen Douglas, PE, PhD
Paul Kirshen, PhD
Rebecca Herst, PhD
Avery Palardy
Robyn Hannigan, PhD, Dean
School for the Environment, UMass Boston
CLIMATE READY
BOSTON
Results from Boston
Research Advisory
Group (BRAG)
climateready.boston.gov

18. Sea Level
Rise
Coastal Storms Extreme
Precipitation
Extreme
Temperatures
CLIMATE RISK FACTORS
climateready.boston.gov

19. climateready.boston.gov

20. climateready.boston.gov

21. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Best available
science (models)
by hazard
Emissions
scenarios
Climate
projections
Vulnerability
assessment
RCP 2.6, 4.5, 8.5
SRES B1, A1Fi
climateready.boston.gov

22. CRB Pilot Projects
Climateready.boston.gov

23. MassDOT-FHWA Pilot Project:
Climate Change and Extreme
Weather
Vulnerability Assessment and
Adaptation Options for the
Central Artery/Tunnel System
Boston, Massachusetts

25. 25
Boston Harbor & Tip O’Neill Tunnel Exit/Entrance Ramps
http://www.flickr.com/photos/pictometry/6220376808/

26. | Leading the Nation in
Transportation Excellence |
www.mass.gov/massdot 26
Tip O’Neill Tunnel Exit & Entrance Ramps

27. | Leading the Nation in
Transportation Excellence |
www.mass.gov/massdot 27
Vent Building 1 – Detail of Air Exchange Vent

28. Why existing maps are not good enough

29. Storm Climatology
Tropical Storms
 Data set provided by
WindRiskTech (Emanuel, et
al., 2006)
 Select storms used to
develop a surface response
function
 Increased storm intensities
for 21st century based on
climate models
Extra-Tropical Storms
 Data set developed by
examining Boston tidal
residual water levels
 Re-analysis data used to
feed a balanced wind model
• A Large Statistically
robust set of
storms.
• No need to
determine joint
probabilities.
Causes of flooding

30. Hydrodynamic modeling

31. Flood exceedance probabilities

32. Winter Storm Grayson / East Squantum St. (Quincy)
Courtesy of Kirk Bosma, Woods Hole Group, East Falmouth, MA

33. Winter Storm Grayson / Morrissey Blvd. (Boston)
Courtesy of Kirk Bosma, Woods Hole Group, East Falmouth, MA

34. Winter Storm Grayson / Neponset Circle (Boston)
Courtesy of Kirk Bosma, Woods Hole Group, East Falmouth, MA

35. Winter Storm Grayson / Revere St. (Winthrop)
Courtesy of Kirk Bosma, Woods Hole Group, East Falmouth, MA

36. QUESTIONS?