Presentation given at ESRT Global cyber security Conference Brussels Description of the Belgian approach to evaluate the impact of cybercrime and compare it to other criminal phenomena. Used to determine political priorities in National Security Plan

1. IMPACT OF CYBERCRIME
ON SOCIETY
The Belgian way to evaluate cybercrime
and compare it with other crime types
ESRT 2013 Global Cyber Security Conference – Brussels – 30 January 2013
@LucBeirens - Belgian Federal Computer Crime Unit - Federal Judicial Police

2. Belgian security study 2009 - 2010
• How to determine police and justice focus (and means) in coming years ?
• National security study => national police security image every 4 year
• In preparation of National Security Plan (actual 2012-2015)
• Strategic analysts in all departments under central coordination
• Evaluation of different aspects of criminal phenomena and impact on society
• Ranking of all phenomena
• Statistics & open sources & National security monitor (public tel questioning)
ESRT 2013 Global Cyber Security Conference © Luc Beirens - Belgian Federal Computer Crime Unit 30 January 2013 2

3. Considered domains
• Facts and figures of “known” crimes
• High level vulnerabilities of society
• Preview of evolution of phenomena and threats
• Determination of categories of potential victims
• Each time focus on citizen / companies / government
ESRT 2013 Global Cyber Security Conference © Luc Beirens - Belgian Federal Computer Crime Unit 30 January 2013 3

4. Evaluation framework 1
• Facts & Figures
• Based on police reports and other sources
• Dark number (90%) of those who know !
• Level of organization of this crime
• How are criminals organized ? (hierarchical or flat organization)
• Are there criminal organizations (with which focus) ?
• Links with other kind of crimes (theft, fraud, extortion)
• Use of contra-strategies to escape from LEA
How do they abuse “legal” possibilities to have bigger impact ?
ESRT 2013 Global Cyber Security Conference © Luc Beirens - Belgian Federal Computer Crime Unit 30 January 2013 4

5. Evaluation framework 2
• Number of casualties (dead, injuries) - psychological damage
• Financial and material impact
• Financial gain for criminal + damage recovery cost
• => estimation of 1 to 3 billion eur / year for Belgium
• Impact on societal integrity and good functioning of State
• Political & government espionage
ESRT 2013 Global Cyber Security Conference © Luc Beirens - Belgian Federal Computer Crime Unit 30 January 2013 5

6. Evaluation framework 3
• Evolution = > very quickly increasing
• Threats
• Technical evolution towards “Cloud computing” => dependancy
• A lot of crimes go undiscovered
• Espionage & sabotage => can undermine economy / society
• Threat that people will loose trust in cyber solutions
• Classes of (potential) victims
• All users of cyber => focus on critical cyber infrastructure
ESRT 2013 Global Cyber Security Conference © Luc Beirens - Belgian Federal Computer Crime Unit 30 January 2013 6

7. Results
• Cybercrime ranks number 4 on 32 security phenomena
• Major reasons for high ranking :
• Financial impact (maximum score)
• Evolution and threats (on critical infrastructure)
• Use of criminal cyber infrastructure (botnets)
for different other crime types => everyone theatened
• Cybercrime is priority in National Security Plan 2012-2015
=> adaptation of organization, functioning & training in Police
ESRT 2013 Global Cyber Security Conference © Luc Beirens - Belgian Federal Computer Crime Unit 30 January 2013 7

8. Evaluation of the evaluation framework
• Methodological approach for evaluation not adapted for cybercrime
• Not a good view on physical impact (deads, injuries)
• Absent questions on
• Impact of cyberinfrastructure in other kinds of crime
• Privacy concerns as evaluation factor
• No questions on cyber in National Security Monitor
• This will be adapted for 2013 National security study
ESRT 2013 Global Cyber Security Conference © Luc Beirens - Belgian Federal Computer Crime Unit 30 January 2013 8

9. Contact Details
• Luc Beirens
• Chief commissioner – head of FCCU
• Federal Computer Crime Unit
• Federal Judicial Police
• Notelaarstraat 211 1000 Brusssels
• luc.beirens@fccu.be
• +32 2 743 74 74
• @LucBeirens
ESRT 2013 Global Cyber Security Conference © Luc Beirens - Belgian Federal Computer Crime Unit 30 January 2013 9