Systems Thinking and the Art of Simplification
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A brief introduction to Systems Thinking, Modelling and Simplification
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Systems Thinking and the Art of Simplification
- 1. LORRAINE STEYN @lor_krs Systems Thinking and the Art of Simplification
- 2. Agenda Systems Archetypes What goes wrong? Systems Thinking basics How do we get it to go right? Techniques for simplifying “Because of feedback delays, by the time a problem becomes apparent it may be unnecessarily difficult to solve”
- 3. The Universe is not actually malignant, it only seems so. Murphy’s Law: If anything can go wrong, it will
- 4. All your eggs in one basket A system with multiple pathways and redundancies is more stable than a system with little diversity
- 5. Policy Resistance: actors in the system have their own goals ?
- 6. Escalation: trying to get ahead of the competition
- 7. Tragedy of the Commons: abuse of a shared resource DAY ZERO
- 8. Success to the Successful: the rich get richer
- 9. Shifting the Burden to the Intervenor: addiction, addressing the symptoms not the problem
- 10. Seeking the Wrong Goal: confusing effort with results
- 11. When are we supposed to stop being busy and THINK?
- 12. Rule Beating: obeying the rules, but not the intent Camp requires kids to write a letter home
- 13. Drift to Low Performance: not holding standards absolute
- 14. What are Systems? How do we understand and manage them better?
- 15. ELEMENTS Easy to identify parts of a system INTERCONNECTIONS Physical flows, information flows PURPOSE Observe how the system behaves over time
- 16. Intuitive understanding of complex systems vs rational analysis of small pieces of a problem
- 17. a university? What is the PURPOSE ofThe purpose of a university is to be the guardian of reason, inquiry and philosophical openness Students: To get a diploma so I can get a good job!Accounts Department: ??? To collect money
- 20. Companies lose market share through their own policies. Competitors scoop up the advantage. 1975 Kodak invent digital camera – leaders said NO ONE will want it 1981 Sony launches a digital camera 2012 Kodak files for bankruptcy
- 21. Good News! Our policies cause the outcomes – we can change our policies
- 23. Boundaries, Stocks and Flows
- 24. Feedback Loops
- 26. Case Study Let us apply Systems Agile Teams: What is our “stock”? What are the inflows outflows? Goal: Working Draw a diagram of the factors that affect a team’s productivity
- 28. Conway's law: Organizations which design systems ... are constrained to produce designs which are communication structures of these organizations. Organization
- 29. The Art of Simplification
- 30. No computers in 1687 Hundreds of thousands of calculations needed to work out gravitational forces in our solar system Newton’s genius was to recognize that it could be simplified into pairs: the sun and each planet
- 32. 1. Less is more 2. No (or minimal) crossings 3. Orthogonality – keep things straight! 4. Parents (most important) first 5. Tidy – alignment, fonts, sizes, balance
- 33. Occam’s Razor The simplest answer is probably correct Do not make more assumptions than you absolutely need
- 34. Pareto 80/20 By Better than Yesterday
- 35. 1. Less is more 2. No (or minimal) crossings 3. Orthogonality – keep things straight! 4. Parents (most important) first 5. Tidy – alignment, fonts, sizes, balanceyour thinking
- 36. The ability to bounce back into shape after being pressed or stretch Tends to have rich feedback loops Placing a system in a straitjacket of constancy can cause fragility to evolve CS Holling Resilience:
- 37. Intuition vs Analysis Boundaries constrain the problem (simplification) Other References: Systemantics – John Gall An Introduction to General Systems Thinking – Gerald Weinberg Dr Russel Ackhoff Peter Senge Thinking in Systems – Donella Meadows
- 38. Systems always behave exactly as they are designed, just not always as they are intended. Be creative and courageous about systems redesign. Lorraine Steyn @lor_krs www.krs.co.za
Notas do Editor
- Lor, CEO of software development company for almost 33 years, South African, .Net developer
- “Because of feedback delays within complex systems, by the time a problem becomes apparent it may be unnecessarily difficult to solve. — A stitch in time saves nine.”
- A system with multiple pathways and redundancies is more stable than a system with little diversity
- If one actor pushes the system in one direction, the others will push against them. Why does prohibition not work?
- Spiralling hospital costs as each hospital buys more expensive equipment, advertising that gets more in your face until we are dulled to the point where no message can penetrate
- happens when every user benefits from a shared resource, but does not understand the consequences of abusing the resource.
- winners are rewarded at the expense of the losers, so go on to win again and again (not a level playing field). Privilege.
- is about dependence that arises when a solution addresses the symptoms, but does nothing to solve the underlying problem. The self-maintaining capacity of the system then erodes.
- What do you see? If she was looking out the window. If your boss walked in, would ask why not working? Yet we are supposed to think?
- Excuses … Price of petrol, Snowstorms and floods, Banks are cautious about lending, International influences
- Problems are not independent of each other, but are complex systems that interact with each other
- Detailed oriented people, taught to compartmentalize solutions. We like to break problems into smaller parts
- What value was the Vision statement if everyone has their own goal?
- Tortoiseshell: glasses frames, guitar picks, headbands, bracelets. Ivory: billiards balls, jewellery, piano keys. 1907 – Bakelite was a good thing
- Plastic was going to save the trees! No one thought it would destroy the earth … Single use bad, DDD has a sustainability A little more bad news, let’s talk about business rather than nature
- Failing software projects, failing businesses, are the direct result of our decisions. George Eastman
- Let’s discuss the “greatest generalization achieved by the human mind” Gerry Weinberg, General Systems Thinking
- Reinforcing loop driving growth, and a balancing loop that will eventually stop it
- Software is a social process We can design a system of fear and stress, or a system that fosters collaboration and creativity
- Policy could be work more hours, Personal issues We can design a system of fear and stress, or a system that fosters collaboration and creativity
- Let’s discuss the “greatest generalization achieved by the human mind” Gerry Weinberg, General Systems Thinking
- 10 calculations, resulted in his Theory of Universal Gravitation
- No numbers, feel the shape of it. Think about a flu epidemic. If every person is as likely as the next to catch the flu, we can calculate the flu shots we need
- Like pairs, less is more. More combinations, more complexity, more probability that you are wrong.
- Focus on the 20% effort that will give you 80% results
- Unit tests are feedback loops, error handling
- Explain the slinky