View the slides from LDC's 13th Retail Health Summit. These include: - The UK Economy and retail environment - National vacancy rates - Regional performance - Performance by size and location type - Persistent vacancy - Retail Health Index

1. 13th LDC Retail Health Summit
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13th LDC Retail Health Summit
Keynote presentation
Matthew Hopkinson LDC
Chair
Emma Simpson BBC
Panel
Vicky Fowler BLP
Ashley Blake Otium Real Estate
Paul Longley UCL
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Ben Terry Dixons Carphone Plc

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Profitability is under pressure
VS

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Spires shopping mall
(Belfast)
Flemingate
Shopping centre
(Beverley)
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New shopping centres
Grand Central shopping centre
(Birmingham)
The Broadway Bradford
(Bradford)
(Source: LDC)
East
shopping
centre
(London)
Liverpool Central
(Liverpool)
Friars Walk Shopping centre
(Newport)
Resorts World Birmingham
(Birmingham)
The Crescent
(Hinckley)

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Holderness Road
retail park (Hull)
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New retail parks
Alphington retail park (Exeter)
The
Rowley
Arts Centre
(St. Neots)Banbury Gateway shopping park
(Banbury)
Kirkstall Bridge
shopping park (Leeds)
(Source: LDC)
A1 retail park
(Biggleswade)
Princes Gate (Garrison)
Cannock Gateway retail park (Cannock)
Yate riverside leisure and retail
park (Bristol)
Technology retail park (Rugby)

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“A point of view can be a dangerous
luxury when substituted for insight and
understanding.”
Marshall McLuhan, Canadian Communications Professor

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13th LDC Retail Health Summit
What do we do?

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What do we do?
3,000
LOCATIONS ANALYSED
501,896 in 7,000 locations
PREMISES TRACKED
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News feeds tracked
Updates a month
Field
Researchers
Data collection
App
QA
Team
Customers
LDO - Online
Dashboards
Relational SQL
Database
Footfall
Data
3rd Party
Data Feeds
Historical data
Development hours pcm
The ‘Bloomberg’ for the UK Retail sector

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Evidence based analysis
Cities & Towns
(50+ units)
850
Shopping Centres
(10+ units)
675
Retail Parks
(3+ units)
1,075
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13th LDC Retail Health Summit
The ‘environment’

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Consensus output forecast
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(Source: UK
Treasury)

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UK Consumer Confidence
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(Source: GfK 2015)

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(Source: Asda Income
Tracker, January 2016)
Asda income tracker

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Number of companies who fell into administration
2007 to 2015
(Source: Centre for Retail Research)

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13th LDC Retail Health Summit
National vacancy picture

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Shop vacancy rate across GB Dec 2008 - Dec 2015
(Source: LDC)

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GB vacancy rates
by location type
H1 2013
H2 2015
(Source: LDC)

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Historical vacancy
rate across England,
Scotland and Wales
H1 2013 to H2 2015
(Source: LDC)

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Historical shopping
centre vacancy rate
across England,
Scotland and Wales
H1 2013 to H2 2015
(Source: LDC)

20. 13th LDC Retail Health Summit
20Tweet using #LDCInsights
Historical retail park
vacancy rate across
England, Scotland
and Wales
H1 2013 to H2 2015
(Source: LDC)

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13th LDC Retail Health Summit
Regional performance

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Vacancy rate
by English regions
H2 2015
(Source: LDC)

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% change in
vacancy rate
across English regions
H1 2015 & H2 2015
(Source: LDC)

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Historical vacancy rate
by English regions
H1 2013 to H2 2015
(Source: LDC)

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13th LDC Retail Health Summit
Performance by size
and location type

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Vacancy rates by
town centre size
H2 2014 & H2 2015
(Source: LDC)

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Historical change in
vacancy rate by
town centre size
2012 to 2015
(Source: LDC)

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Worst performing large town centres across GB
2015
(Source: LDC)

29. 13th LDC Retail Health Summit
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5 year percentage change in vacancy rate
Worst 5 town
centres
5 year change

30. 13th LDC Retail Health Summit
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5 year percentage change in vacancy rate
Best 5 town
centres
5 year change

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Best performing town centres
Church Road, Barnes 1.9%
Cockfosters 1.9%
North Oxford 2.0%
Beaconsfield 1.9%
Highgate 0.0%
Reigate 0.5%
Barking Road West
0.0%
East Finchley 1.0%
Vacancy rate:
Increased
No change
Decreased
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Eastgate, Lincoln 0.0%
Wanstead 1.7%
(Source: LDC)

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West End, Morecambe 26.4%
Wigan 27.8%
Bolton 26.4%
Burslem 33.1%
Dewsbury 25.3%
Vacancy rate:
Increased
No change
Decreased
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Worst performing town centres
Newport, Monmouthshire 21.3%
Bootle 26.3%
Walsall 26.2%
Hartlepool 25.5%
West Bromwich
27.1%
(Source: LDC)

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Historical retail park
vacancy rate by
English regions
H1 2013 to H2 2015
(Source: LDC)

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Historical shopping
centre vacancy rate by
English regions
H1 2013 to H2 2015
(Source: LDC)

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13th LDC Retail Health Summit
Persistent vacancy

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% of total units vacant for more than 3 years
(Source: LDC)

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% change in
the number of units
vacant for more
than 3 years
H1 2015 & H2 2015
(Source: LDC)

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Worst performing town
centres with the highest
% of vacancy units for
over 3 years
(Source: LDC)

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Nottingham

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Lincoln

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Guildford

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Forecasted Investment
returns in the UK
commercial property
market
6 months 12 months
(Source: IPD, 2016)

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13th LDC Retail Health Summit
Health Index

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LDC Health Index looks at
• local demographic data (earnings and population),
• long-term and short-term vacancy
• anchor retailers,
• presence of leisure attractions
• presence of key anchor brands and department store.
These measures combine to create a point score, which we then use to
grade shopping locations on a scale of 1 (weak) to 10 (strong).
LDC Health Index Methodology

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13th LDC Retail Health Summit H2 2015
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
-26 -21 -19 -17 -15 -13 -11 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 16 18 20 22 25 33 57
Frequency
LDC Health Index
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
-21 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 29 34
Frequency
LDC Health Index
Large
Medium
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
-30-26-24-22-20-18-16-14-12-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Frequency
LDC Health Index
Small
Distribution across
GB High streets
by size
(Source: LDC)

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Distribution across GB shopping centres and retail parks
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-35-32-28-26-24-22-20-18-16-14-12-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 35 37 40 43 45 50 54
Frequency
LDC Health Index
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
-36 -32 -27 -24 -22 -20 -18 -16 -14 -12 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 35 37
Frequency
LDC Health Index
Shopping centres Retail park
(Source: LDC)

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13th LDC Retail Health Summit
Footfall – SmartStreetSensor

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1,200 sensors across 100 locations
SmartStreetSensor

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SmartStreetSensor locations

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Profitability is under pressure
VS

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What we aim to be …

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Download your copy of the report
Our customers will receive an email
with a link to download the full Retail
Health Report (H2 2015) and the
presentation slides from today.
All attendees will receive an email with
a link to download the Retail Health
Report Summary (H2 2015) this
afternoon.

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Thank you for listening.
matthew@localdatacompany.com | (0) 20 3111 4393 | www.localdatacompany.com
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60. 13th LDC Retail Health Summit
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13th LDC Retail Health
Summit H2 2015
Keynote presentation
Matthew Hopkinson LDC
Chair
Emma Simpson BBC
Panel
Vicky Fowler BLP
Ashley Blake Otium Real Estate
Paul Longley UCL
Tweet using #LDCInsights
Ben Terry Dixons Carphone Plc

61. 13th LDC Retail Health Summit
61Tweet using #LDCInsights