3. There is so much
information!
In 2010 Eric Schmidt said
“Every two days now we
create as much
information as we did
from the dawn of
civilization up until 2003”
4. The mind fills in gaps
“What you see is all there is”
Daniel Kahneman
6. So what are Cognitive Biases?
The conjunction of the previous statements
Shortcuts the brain takes to be able to get from
one end of the day to the other.
8. Is this it?
Too Much
Information
We notice
things already
in memory
We find things
that match
our beliefs
Funny or odd
things stick
out
We spot the
changes
9. Is this it?
Too Much
Information
Not Enough
Meaning
We find
stories and
patterns
We simplify
numbers and
probabilities
We assume
things we like
are better
We
stereotype
10. Is this it?
Too Much
Information
Need to Act
Fast
Not Enough
Meaning
We continue
with things we
have started
We prefer the
thing we see
first
We do what
we feel is
important
We pick
simple
solutions
11. Is this it?
Too Much
Information
Need to Act
Fast
What Should
We
Remember?
Not Enough
Meaning
We store
memories by
how we
experienced
them
We reduce
things to key
elements
We edit some
memories
after the fact
We
generalise
12. Everything that the brain sees or hears or touches
has multiple interpretations. The one that is
ultimately chosen is simply the brain’s best
guess at interpreting what flows into it.
13. If we’ve been doing it for millennia, how important
are they really?
17. Let me guess, it ends up looking
something like this.
18. You are probably already familiar with
the bandwagon effect
Do you ask people to put
down their thoughts
individually before
sharing ideas?
Do you break people up
into smaller groups?
22. Let me tell you about Linda
Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very
bright. She got a 1st in philosophy. As a student
she was deeply concerned with issues of
discrimination and social justice. She also
participated in anti war demonstrations
Is it more likely she is a bank teller, or a feminist
bank teller?
23. The Conjunction Fallacy
90 % of people get this wrong!
What could this mean when you are exploring
options with stakeholders?
Bank Teller
Feminist
bank
teller
24. The Power of Now
or
Hyperbolic Discounting
• One marshmallow now or 2 marshmallows in 20 minutes
• £5 now or £10 in a year
The Hyperbolic Discounting Effect is why people show a
preference for a reward that arrives sooner rather than
later.
26. Anchoring
A pound to a penny , you all use this already if you
write business cases.
• Option 1 - $1,500,000
• Option 2 - $1,000,000
• Option 3 - $500,000
28. Losses and gains are not equivalent
People want to avoid
losing £10 roughly
twice as much as
they want to gain
£10
Loss Aversion
Cognitive Bias
29. BA Planning
Planning and estimating
are a key part of any IT
project.
Often described as a
‘Black Art’………
30. It isn’t - we are just rubbish at it!
We underestimate the time it will take us to
do something
We do this, even when we KNOW how long
it has taken us to do this in the past
It only affects estimates of how long it will
take us to do something.
When we estimate for someone else to do
the work we over estimate!
Average
Best Worst
Actual Average
No of days
31. So what can you do?
Half of being smart is knowing what you are dumb
about
Solomon Short
32. Can you avoid them?
No, not completely
Sadly, there is such a thing as the Bias blind spot.
Everyone is less likely to detect
bias in themselves than others
33. They can be
pretty
inescapable
Most of us know that these are
the same size.
But the bottom one still looks
bigger…..
This is the Jastrow Illusion
38. What else?
Pre-
Mortem
Before a project starts:-
As a team, imagine every
problem that could come up
• Focus on the show stoppers
• Pick the ones that are likely
to happen
• Agree solutions
45. Cognitive biases are most likely to affect you when
• You have too much information
• You need to act fast
• You don’t know what you should remember
• There isn’t enough meaning
Cognitive bias is not about being stupid or not thinking enough.
Even judges do it
Study done in 2010
when judges make repeated rulings, they show an increased tendency to rule in favor of the status quo.
They are intelligent peoplw who believe they are making logic based decisions, but the graph seems to show otherwise
So lets have a look at what our poor brains have to put up with on a daily basis.
Eric Schmidt – Google CEO
We live in in a society based on choice so are bombarded with decisions on a daily basis
We don’t stop when we haven’t got all the information we need, we notice what is unusual, or find something that supports our existing beliefs to fill in the gaps
The brain will make decision based on the facts it has available to it. If people have too little information they are unlikely to acknowledge that. They will fill in the gaps
Look at the Kaniza triangle
Gregory Burns the author of iconoclast
His study of innovative thinking of why some people can think innovatively &other’s can't
The brain uses a lot of energy and to be efficient it looks for something familiar when it's faced with new.
Cognitive- to do with thinking
Bias – tendency to behave and believe one way with out evidence.
You may have heard people talk of ‘Lizard Brain’ and ‘Monkey Brain’
Or of Kahneman’s Type 1 & type 2 brains.
Basically the current model for our brains is that we have a part of our brain, that responds really quickly, focussed on survival and quick actions without having to weigh up all the options. This is the type 1 or lizard brain
The other part of our brain is slower and more logical and makes factual decisions.
In business analysis we want to favour logical based decisions over survival based ones.
Here is the cognitive bias codex.
There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas.
You can be tripped up in many ways.
There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas.
You can be tripped up in many ways.
There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas.
You can be tripped up in many ways.
There are many known biases that fall into 4 main areas.
You can be tripped up in many ways.
We notice what matters to us
What are you oblivious to that matters?
These have enabled our survival, surely we can live with them.
So how important are they?
The computers in the hospitals were running Windows XP.
They hadn’t been upgraded, because, like they still work and nothing has happened so far….
If that isn’t an example of the optimism bias in action then I don’t know what is!
From the BABOK
All these knowledge areas contain tasks that require you to work with stakeholders
Stakeholders are people
You are a person
Cognitive biases affect people
They can impact everything you do
They are a common method for strategy development, business needs and planning
When I scan through the phots on my phone it is full of pictures of post its
Different colours, different shapes sharpie pens.
Still post its
You are already trying to mitigate the bandwagon effect.
Allowing more ideas to come out
Sticking with the Status quo
Have you heard of the Lego serious play method?
You will get something completely different
Give them a different tool and
The more you know, the more likely you think it is = The conjunction fallacy
Even when the information is not relevant
What does that mean when you are exploring new options with your stakeholders?\
Conjunction/ Ambiguity
This also shows itself as the ambiguity effect, where missing information makes the probability seem unknown.
Requirements will be very now focussed. If you want to know about the long term, you will have to dig for it.
Strategies require a long term view.
This why we are so bad at modifying our diet to lose weight.
Also, it is my theory this is why it is so hard to get people to sign off requirements specs (for those of you that still do them…)
hyperbolic discounting has been observed in rats, pigeons, and monkeys
Story about Christian and Anchoring bias.
We all use it already. Look at the order!
Making numbers look smaller increases their appeal
A favourite of advertisers
Making numbers look smaller increases their appeal
I really couldn’t see how it would work, but somehow it did….
Rephrased business case in terms of least loss.
Projects run to time – right?
We estimate, get the estimates right and it all work smoothly.
No.
Projects overrun. We build whole structures for dealing with overruns. But why? Surely we learn.
No we don’t……
In a 1994 study, 37 psychology students were asked to estimate how long it would take to finish their senior theses. The average estimate was 33.9 days. They also estimated how long it would take "if everything went as well as it possibly could" (averaging 27.4 days) and "if everything went as poorly as it possibly could" (averaging 48.6 days). The average actual completion time was 55.5 days, with only about 30% of the students completing their thesis in the amount of time they predicted.[
Pot calling the kettle black
So on the understanding your brain is trying to make you take the easiest way out all the time. What can you do?
We’ve looked at some ways already. Here are some more.
Study done in 2010
Israeli judge parole hearings
when judges make repeated rulings, they show an increased tendency to rule in favor of the status quo.
So o the understadning your brain is trying to make you take the easiest way out all the time. What can you do?
We’ve looked at some ways already. Here are some more.
Everything from heard of rampaging elephants
Elephant in the room that no-one talks about
Who have a check list – you don’t have to act fast.
Try something different, don’t let people fall into patterns of behaviour as their brains swithch off.
Stretch yourself and them
Game storming is great
Cognitive biases kick in when you need to act fast.
Do you need to act fast?
Can you sleep on it. Can you go for a walk round the office to grab a coffee.
Saying something out loud slows you down, having to explain something to other people makes you think it through. They may have more meaning from you, or spot your biases.
We have looked at examples of how CB’s can affect you at all stages of your process and what you can do about it.
From making sure that you don’t just keep banging on at something and take proper breaks, to trying new techniques in workshops to get people to think differently and stir up the status quo.