12. “I think we can
deliver this project
in 8 sprints.”
(Actually we think 6 but we’re padding
to be careful.)
13. Estimation does not create value. (估算无法
产生价值)
Estimation does not reduce work. (估算无法
减低工作量)
Therefore, estimation is ‘waste’ in Lean
terms. (因此, 从精益的角度来看, 估算是一种’
浪费’)
And…
Estimates can be mistaken as commitments
(同时, 估算时常被误认为就是承诺)
14.
15.
16. To form an opinion about; evaluate. (形成一
个意见; 评估)
A tentative evaluation or rough calculation,
as of worth, quantity, or size. (一种暂时性的
评估或者大概的有关於价值, 数量, 或者大小的
计算)
A judgment based on one‘s impressions; an
opinion. (根据一个人的印象所作的判断)
Usually implies a subjective and somewhat
inexact judgment (通常隐含了一种主观且不
怎麽準确的判断)
17. An oxymoron is a phrase in which
contradictory terms appear side by side.
(Oxymoron 指的是在一句话当中出现两个观
念相衝突的字或词)
18. “I’m almost positive we are done.”
“It was a dark night and the moon
shone with silvery light”
Detailed Summary
American Culture
Military Intelligence
Adult Male
21. Here is a question I can answer:
How much effort can your team apply to the
project during this sprint?
Here is a question I cannot answer:
How much complexity can your team complete
during this sprint?
Hereis what I do when I can’t answer a
question:
I make a guess!
26. Wouldn’tit be nice if every story was the
same size?
Every story is then a ‘1’, or else a ‘247’. It
doesn’t matter.
We can do that by splitting stories until they
are all about the same size.
This gets us all of the benefits of splitting at
the same time that it eliminates estimating.
No need to estimate.
This works exceptionally well in kanban.
27.
28. Story Task Pts Ideal
Hours
Consolidated 13
Financial Report
Design Integration 2
Data Structure
Import from first 6
data source
… … … …
29. Mike Cohn once said:
“If you are not comfortable with story
points, then just pretend one story point
equals one ideal day.”
Mike Cohn forgot to say:
“Only do that until you figure out story
points because it is not really true. It is a
trick to help you get started.”
30. Use ideal hours for tasks
Tasks are small and so are hours.
Ifyou estimate effort, then story points and
ideal hours are correlated
More story points means more ideal hours
because both estimate effort
Now, since you estimate stories and tasks
differently, the two estimates can be used as
a sanity check
31. Story Points Sum of Task
Ideal Hours
Display Time 2 4
Enter Time 5 9
Scale
Change Time 3 5
Display
Set Y Axis Scale 1 12
Change Y Axis 3 7
Scale
Add Graph Title 3 5
33. Team Percent Project Days Total project
Member Allocated Hours per Available hours
day this sprint available
this sprint
Xianshen 100 6 10 60
Brenda 100 6 8 48
Li 50 3 10 30
Mei 100 6 5 30
Jiang 100 6 10 60
Daniel 100 6 10 60
Total 288
Minus 10%
Scrum
Overhead
260
33
34. Always estimate Estimate when
Relative estimation necessary
using Planning Poker Estimate by splitting
Story Points and Ideal Affinity estimation
Hours No task estimation (or
Capacity Planning no tasks!)
Complexity, Effort, Capacity planning
and Doubt when necessary
1 Story Point = 1 Day
Old Days Nowadays