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JBL Advisors, LLC.
Stock Data
Exchange: NYSE
52-week Range: $46.96 - $69.87
Shares Outstanding (million): 1,786
Market cap ($million): $122,055
Net Debt ($million): $10,357
EV ($million): $132,412
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (million): 7,780
Short Interest (million shares): 36.6
Dividend, annual (% yield): $0.75 (1.10%)
State of incorporation: Delaware
Auditors: PWC LLP
Revenues (US$ million)
FY2013A
(Cur.)
FY2014E
(Cur.)
FY2015E
(Cur.)
Q1 Dec 11,341 12,200 NA
Q2 Mar 10,554 11,160 NA
Q3 Jun 11,578 12,450 NA
Q4 Sep 11,568 12,515 NA
Total 45,041 48,325E 52,300E
EV/Revs 2.9x 2.7x 2.5x
Earnings per Share (non-GAAP)
FY2013A
(Cur.)
FY2014E
(Cur.)
FY2015E
(Cur.)
Q1 Dec 0.79 0.86 NA
Q2 Mar 0.79 0.90 NA
Q3 Jun 1.03 1.21 NA
Q4 Sep 0.77 0.91 NA
Total 3.39 3.88E 4.51E
P/E 20.2x 17.6x 15.1x
EBIT (US$ million)
FY2013A
(Cur.)
FY2014E
(Cur.)
FY2015E
(Cur.)
Q1 Dec 2,380 2,620 NA
Q2 Mar 2,509 2,800 NA
Q3 Jun 3,351 3,790 NA
Q4 Sep 2,484 2,930 NA
Total 10,724 12,140E 13,660E
EV / EBIT 12.3x 10.9x 9.7x
EBIT defined as earnings before interest, taxes, and stock-
based compensation.
United States
Entertainment & Leisure
April 16, 2015
Jeffrey B. Logsdon
(714) 852 - 3774
jeff@jbladvisors.com
Important Disclosures: For analyst certification and
other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure
Section, located at the end of this report.
We are initiating coverage on DIS with an Outperform rating and a
$124.00 price target over the next 12-months.
Basis of Recommendation:
 Disney is a premier entertainment company with an asset base that
is unrivaled in the industry. The mix of uniquely profitable brands,
unduplicatable franchises and assets, as well as best in class
financials make it a core holding for growth investors.
 Theme Parks & Resorts are in the enviable position of benefitting
from a normalized economy, middle-innings of significant and
profitable capacity expansion (new parks & attractions), and
improving operating margins.
 ESPN remains a highly prized and valued asset, which along with
Disney’s other cable networks should continue to be a catalyst of OI
growth over the next two years. While not undiscovered, it is still a
powerful earnings driver in dollars and percentages.
 Acquisition of LucasFilm and continuing exploitation of Marvel
characters in film and TV enhances the creative resources of its
Filmed Entertainment business and is highly leveragable
operationally and financially at its theme parks, consumer products
and interactive segments.
 Cross-platform consumer interaction with the brands, characters
and franchise portfolio is becoming very profitable. While always a
leader in maximizing the cash-earnings generating utilization of its
creative output, Disney is accelerating that growth with the addition
of LucasFilms.
 Share repurchases will compliment organic growth. Disney has
reduced its share count by about 12% since 2010 and should
continue to return $3-$4 billion in capital annually giving a modest
boost to earnings.
 Healthy valuation points to meaningful estimated growth in EPS
(17% CAGR F2013 – F2017E) and FCF ($2.8b in F2012 to $7.1b in
F2017E) as new parks, retransmission fees, affiliate fee increases,
dividend growth and better operating margins combine to enhance
Disney’s investment attractiveness.
 Our 12-month $124.00 price target is based on a blend of DCF,
EV/EBITDA and P/E valuation tools.
Company Description
The Walt Disney Company is one of the most dominant entertainment
conglomerates in the world. It is a leading producer and distributor of
films and television series, operates premier theme parks worldwide, is a
major television broadcaster, controls two of the most profitable cable
networks in ESPN and The Disney Channel, as well as successfully building
& acquiring new franchises with Star Wars, Marvel characters, Princesses,
and Pirates, among others which help it dominate the licensing and
merchandising world.
The Walt Disney Company
Initiating Coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating and $124 Price
Target
The Magic Kingdom: Momentum Visibility To 2018
COVERAGE
INITIATION
Rating:
Outperform
Ticker: DIS
Price: $107.15
Target: $124.00
Stock Data
Exchange: NYSE
52-week Range: $108.94 - $76.31
Shares Outstanding (million): 1,734
Market cap (million): $185,798
Net Debt (million): $11,466
EV (million): $197,264
ROE (2014) 17.5%
ROIC (2014) 18.9%
Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (million) 6.55
Short Interest (million shares): 42.0
Dividend, annual (yield): $1.15 (1.07%)
Senior Debt Rating: A/A2
Auditors: PWC LLP
Revenues (US$ million)
F2014A
(Cur.)
F2015E
(Cur.)
F2016E
(Cur.)
Q1 Dec 12,309 13,391A NA
Q2 Mar 11,649 12,280 NA
Q3 Jun 12,466 13,040 NA
Q4 Sep 12,389 13,264 NA
Total 48,813 51,975 55,650
EV/Revs 4.0x 3.8x 3.5x
Earnings per Share (US$) (Adjusted)
F2014A
(Cur.)
F2015E
(Cur.)
F2016E
(Cur.)
Q1 Dec 1.04 1.27A NA
Q2 Mar 1.10 1.14 NA
Q3 Jun 1.28 1.42 NA
Q4 Sep 0.89 1.13 NA
Total $4.32 $4.97 $5.79
P/E 24.8x 21.6x 18.5x
EBITDA (US$ million) (Adjusted)
F2014A
(Cur.)
F2015E
(Cur.)
F2016E
(Cur.)
Q1 Dec 3,454 3,955A NA
Q2 Mar 3,789 3,288 NA
Q3 Jun 4,320 3,958 NA
Q4 Sep 2,895 4,634 NA
Total 14,458 15,835 17,730
EV / EBITDA 13.6 x 12.5x 11.1x
EBITDA defined as earnings before interest, taxes,
depreciation, amortization and stock-based compensation.
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
2
JBL Advisors, LLC.
INVESTMENT THESIS
We believe DIS is very well positioned operationally to see double digit earnings gains in F2015E – F2017E (our earnings model is on
Page 18), which we believe should lead to above-average returns for investors this next year. While Disney is not an undiscovered
stock, it is likely to remain a core investment holding in most growth portfolios and a momentum investor’s delight given the
numerous catalysts (investable themes) in the next two years. We would expect investment returns should at least track EPS growth,
which should enable Disney to outperform the investment returns of the S&P 500. Disney should show broad-based fundamental
growth, strength at its cable networks, healthy ad markets around ESPN as programming pushes revenues, very positive comps with
its film slate and contributions from Lucas Film’s Star Wars 7 and spin off Star Wars: Rogue One, as well as better theme park earnings
from Park expansion domestically and internationally. Acceleration in estimated FCF growth in F2017 and beyond as well as a
continuation of share repurchases should fuel and complement its fundamental, organic EPS growth.
Disney should experience above-index fundamental growth in F2015-F2017. We expect double-digit operating income, EBITDA, and
EPS estimated growth in F2015-F2017, driven by broad base contributions from most of its operating segments. We forecast three-
year revenue CAGR of 6.9% and EPS of 17% (F2014–F2017E). Disney continues to achieve mid-teen ROIC and has been consistently
decapitalizing the company while maintaining a very healthy and attractive capital structure.
Exhibit 1: Disney Quarterly Total Revenues F2013 – F2015E
Fiscal years end September
Source: Company reports, JBL Advisors estimates
$11,341
$10,554
$11,578 $11,568
$12,309
$11,649
$12,466 $12,389
$13,391
$12,330
$13,040 $13,214
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Total Revenue
in millions
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
3
JBL Advisors, LLC.
Exhibit 2: Disney Quarterly Operating Income F2013 – F2015E
Fiscal years end September
Source: Company reports, JBL Advisors estimates
ESPN remains a marquee franchise and should generate more than an estimated $4.5 billion of EBITDA in F2015. Cable Networks
should continue to push healthy fundamentals as contractual growth in subscriber fees, international expansion, and healthy ratings
(driven in part by expanding sports rights worldwide) drive earnings contributions. The group of cable networks should generate an
estimated $6.85 billion in operating income in F2015 with over $4 billion coming from ESPN. The financial dynamics of ESPN’s suite
of cable networks should be a frequent and important reminder of the value of these franchises and their earnings power, even with
the law of large numbers.
Retransmission fees should help drive operating income growth. We believe that TV broadcasters and network owners are seeing
the financial benefits of retransmission fees and are likely to push the cents per subscribers per month to higher levels as new
contractual negotiations evolve over the next 4 years. Disney has gone on record stating that the operating income contributions
from retransmission fees are likely to grow to the $400-$500 million level this year and we would expect that to grow towards $750
million plus as retransmission fees 2.0 begins to contribute in F2016 and beyond. This is an exceptional contribution to operating
income given the 80% plus pass-through and the current level of operating income at the division ($854 million in F2014). We believe
this accords a certain amount of immunity to the vagaries and typical erosion of the ABC networks ratings (live & same day) and
fluctuations of local advertising.
Capital expenditures at Disney’s Theme Parks and Resorts division should decline meaningfully beginning in F2017 as the major
capex cycle from theme park & resorts expansion winds down. The new amenities at a variety of theme parks (Florida, Hong Kong,
etc.) and new capacity built over the past few years (California Adventure, etc.) should provide a substantial boost to operating
income. Disney has been in the midst of a significant capital expenditure cycle during the past four years, but capex should decline
by $1 billion or so in F2017. The expenditures are related to the addition of two cruise ships (at a cost of about $800 million each,
Disney Dream launched in F2Q11 and Disney Fantasy launched F3Q12), the Aulani Resort on Oahu (at a cost of around the $500
million level and opened in F2012), a major redesign and rebuild at Disney’s California Adventure in Anaheim including Car’s Land
($1 billion plus), a doubling of Fantasyland in Florida (costing an estimated $800 million), spending on its new 43%-owned Disneyland
Shanghai of approximately $2.3 billion for Disney’s share (which will open early in FY2016), and three new lands which opened at
Hong Kong Disneyland within the last 24-months. We estimate the aggregate operating income contribution from these investments
to reach $700-$800 million annually by FY2015-FY2017, a healthy incremental contribution to the F2014 Theme Parks & Resorts
operating income of $2.6 billion. All of these projects should extend and expand existing businesses for a number of years and keep
EPS growth percentage in the teens or better.
$2,380
$2,509
$3,351
$2,484
$3,020
$3,353
$3,857
$2,775
$3,545 $3,523
$4,113
$3,110
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Total Operating Income
in millions
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
4
JBL Advisors, LLC.
Disney should see significant growth for the next 3 years in its Studio segment operating income which should be a key investment
theme. We estimate Disney’s Studio Entertainment segment’s operating income will grow to $2.2 billion in F2017 from $1.5 billion
in F2014 as its major production verticals (Marvel, Pixar and LucasFilms as well as key sequels) rollout worldwide (see our highly
anticipated films table on page 8 of this report). The addition of LucasFilms (Star Wars franchises) is already contributing to the
Consumer Products segment and should begin to contribute in a more significant proportion to the OI of the Filmed Entertainment
division over the next three-to-five years by hundreds of millions of dollars in operating income. The addition of Alan Horn to head
the Filmed Entertainment group has dramatically improved the utilization of creative resources and franchises, strategic operating
efficiency and profitability of the division. The combination of John Lassiter and Alan Horn is a powerful duo that should continue to
have a positive impact on its filmed entertainment and related businesses for years to come.
Disney has been a consistent outperformer versus the S&P 500. Seven of the past eight years, Disney’s stock has outperformed the
S&P 500 in a meaningful fashion. Overall, since the beginning of 2008, Disney’s stock is up approximately 229% versus a 42% gain
for the S&P 500. We acknowledge and call out that past performance is absolutely not an indicator of future returns, but it is an
important benchmark for institutional investors that are unlikely to overlook the equity’s performance in tough and bountiful times
economically if its operating profile and EPS numbers are healthy. This is a major rationale in our outperform rating as the operating
and financial dynamics that have led to the superior performance of the stock the past seven years remain in place and should remain
visible for the next two years.
The chart below details the annual returns from Disney versus the S&P 500.
Exhibit 3: Annual Returns, 2008 – 2015 Year to Date
Source: Company reports, Thomson Reuters
We believe Disney’s valuation is still attractive at its current 14% premium P/E multiple to the S&P 500 (using F2016E), a mid-point
premium to its 7 year range. We estimate that Disney should grow EPS at close to a 17% CAGR (F2014-F2017) versus the S&P 500’s
EPS CAGR in the 6.5% - 7.0% over the next 3 years. We believe that a doubling of the earnings growth rate of the most widely-used
benchmark index for equities makes its current valuation premium attractive for those who would use GARP valuation methodologies
-28.7%
43.7%
17.6%
1.6%
34.8%
54.9%
24.9%
15.0%
-36.6%
25.9%
14.8%
2.0%
16.6%
30.2%
13.0%
3.9%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
DIS vs. S&P 500 Total Annual Return
Calendar 2008-2015 YTD
DIS S&P 500
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
5
JBL Advisors, LLC.
as their primary investment decision-making tool. While we are not postulating multiple expansion as part of our investment themes,
we do believe its double digit EPS growth quotient for the next three years, low leverage level (under 1.0x debt/EBITDA, probability
of further dividend increases, and meaningful growth in FCF should all contribute to stability in its fundamentals and improving
visibility for a positive impact to investor sentiment. The company has multiple momentum variables from its core businesses which
we believe makes it just as attractive to momentum investors as well. It is not an undiscovered stock but that does not mean it is
unlikely to outperform the S&P 500 over the next year or two.
COMPANY DESCRIPTION
The Walt Disney Company is one of the most dominant diversified entertainment conglomerates in the world. It is a leading producer
and distributor of feature films and television series, operates premier theme parks around the world, is a major television
broadcaster, controls two of the most highly respected brands and profitable cable networks in ESPN and The Disney Channel, and
has successfully built new franchises with Marvel, Pixar and now Lucas Film resources. The company dominates the character-
licensing business and the children’s consumer products marketplace with its unique stable of brands and franchises.
The following exhibits visualize the growing importance of the higher contributions from its film and theme park businesses, both of
which should be very healthy growers through F2017.
Exhibit 4: Revenue by Segment - F2010, F2013, & F2016E
Fiscal years end September
Source: Company reports and JBL Advisors estimates
Exhibit 5: Operating Income by Segment - F2010, F2013, & F2016E
Fiscal years end September
Source: Company reports and JBL Advisors estimates
Cable Networks: Disney owns and operates many of the premier cable networks worldwide with ESPN and The Disney Channel as
well as a number of other cable networks in the U.S. (Family Channel, Disney XD & Disney Junior) and a 50% equity stake in the AETN
(Lifetime, History Channel, Biography, etc.). It has over 100 million households as subscribers to its domestic cable networks and
close to 160 million international subscribers. The cable networks generate approximately 29.4% of the company’s revenues and
47.9% of Disney’s operating income with operating margins in the 42% region (F2015E).
Broadcasting
15%
Cable
Networks
30%
Theme Parks &
Resorts
28%
Studio
Entertainment
18%
Consumer
Products
7%
Interactive
Media
2%
FY2010
Broadcasting
13%
Cable
Networks
32%
Theme Parks &
Resorts
31%
Studio
Entertainment
13%
Consumer
Products
8%
Interactive
Media
2%
FY2013
Broadcasting
12%
Cable
Networks
32%
Theme Parks &
Resorts
31%
Studio
Entertainment
14%
Consumer
Products
9%
Interactive
Media
3%
FY2016E
Broadcasting
9%
Cable
Networks
59%
Theme Parks &
Resorts
17%
Studio
Entertainment
9%
Consumer
Products
9%
Interactive
Media
-3%
FY2010
Broadcasting
7%
Cable
Networks
56%
Theme Parks &
Resorts
21%
Studio
Entertainment
6%
Consumer
Products
10%
Interactive
Media
-1%
FY2013
Broadcasting
6%
Cable
Networks
48%
Theme Parks &
Resorts
21%
Studio
Entertainment
12%
Consumer
Products
12%
Interactive
Media
2%
FY2016E
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
6
JBL Advisors, LLC.
ESPN (and its suite of channels) is the major contributor to revenues and operating income in the segment. ESPN generates roughly
$12.5 billion in revenues (almost $6 per subscriber per month for the ESPN suite of channels) and over $4.5 billion in operating
income. Approximately 65% of ESPN’s revenues are derived from affiliate fees that are under long term contracts with high-single
digit escalators in place over the next four to five years. The second largest contributor to the division’s revenues is The Disney
Channel, which garners over $1.30 per subscriber per month in subscription fees from cable, satellite & telco carriers to come to 100
million households in the U.S. and close to 180 million internationally. The Disney Channel generates over $3.2 billion in revenues
and over $1.2 billion in operating income despite the absence of traditional advertising revenue contributions.
Complimentary platforms utilizing OTT and SVOD connects are becoming much more important and lucrative variables in the
profitability equation, especially as ratings from traditional networks drift and-or erode. Mobile, tablet and other screens are gaining
lots of attention as a growing source of revenues, but still fractional relative to the traditional portals. Subscriber level disconnects
with MVPD’s have not seemed to be very consequential to the economics of the business so far. Dominating the discussion up to
now have been the dollars paid by aggregators like Netflix and Amazon which have meaningfully surpassed the loss of ad dollars from
ratings disruptions. True to form, that variable will not last for years to come! Recent strategy plans by TWX (with HBO) and CBS
(with Showtime) and others (Starz & Sony) to go for direct connects with $10-$18 monthly subscriber fees will be another variation
which Disney has yet to embrace or adopt. Suffice it to say that we expect Disney will be an important player in utilizing its content
and programming on most platforms, maximizing its split and equity control worldwide.
We do not believe Net Neutrality has particularly influential implications financially for Disney in the near term.
The following graphs visualize the contributions of the cable networks to the company’s profitability. The segment should continue
to see close to double digit growth annually over the next few years as affiliate fees maintain a high-single digit pace.
Exhibit 6: Cable Networks Quarterly Revenue and Operating Income Profile, F2013-F2015E
$3,538
$3,458
$3,884
$3,573
$3,759
$3,633
$3,942
$3,776
$4,166
$3,900
$4,200
$4,084
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Cable Networks Revenue
in millions
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
7
JBL Advisors, LLC.
Fiscal years end September
Source: Company Reports and JBL Advisors estimates
Sports rights are a major revenue and cost variable for Disney’s Cable Network segment and frequently an important debate point
about the segment and the company amongst investors. In simple terms (and there are few elements of sports rights contracts that
are simple!), the early years of longer term renewals create the lowest margins (or modest operating income losses) and the back
end typically have the best margins. Clearly ratings and ad rates are variable while subscriber fees have typically been precast for
most platforms. MLB, NFL, NASCAR (not renewed), FIFA World Cup Soccer (a F2014 cost and revenue item) College football (SEC
network, BCS bowls, etc.) are all influencing F2015 and beyond revenues and operating income, some compressing margins for the
next two years, some enhancing margins. Live sports broadcasting CPM’s have been growing at almost 2x those of other television
based platforms as ratings trends have outperformed. We would note that DIS seems to be both strategic and quantitatively driven
in the acquisition of various domestic and international rights, learning from the successes and cautious when potentially unprofitable
rights come up for bid. These dynamics should keep ESPN in a healthy competitive and financial position.
Studio Entertainment: The Walt Disney Studios consists of Buena Vista, Pixar (acquired in 2006 for $7 billion), Marvel (acquired in
2010 for $4 billion) and LucasFilms (acquired in 2013 for $4 billion). Acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel and Lucas dramatically enhanced
and replenished its creative resources and production expertise, especially in the young and tween male demographics. This has
allowed the company to complement its young and tween female dominance in the consumer product, video, and park attractions
$952
$1,724
$2,087
$1,284 $1,277
$1,974 $1,942
$1,274 $1,255
$2,050
$2,125
$1,420
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Cable Networks Operating Income
in millions
26.9%
49.9%
53.7%
35.9%
34.0%
54.3%
49.3%
33.7%
30.1%
52.6%
50.6%
34.8%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Cable Networks Operating Income Margin
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
8
JBL Advisors, LLC.
worldwide. The company changed the Chairman and CEO late in F2012, putting Alan Horn, former chief at Warner Bros to run all of
its studio operations and his leadership has meaningfully enhanced the profitability of the studio. We think his creative relationships,
production and financing expertise and distribution experience should continue to pay big dividends for Disney.
Disney has strategically shifted its film production activities over the past two years. It is utilizing major film releases from Marvel,
Pixar and LucasFilms to drive the majority of its annual film portfolio, supplemented by an animated-to-live action film productions
(like Cinderella this past March) and selected other films (Tomorrowland) including sequels like Pirates 5 in the summer of 2017.
High-end franchises, branded sequels, family-Disney-esque films as two-or-three tentpole films will fill their target of 12-14 films per
year. The appeal is to a somewhat broader demographic than those produced a decade ago. It is also much clearer to see the cross-
platform potential these films can experience thereby reducing financial risk and leveraging any success.
Disney is likely to have a very robust summer box office season this year. We are projecting $1.175 billion in domestic box office this
summer from Disney’s film releases domestically and those same films should gross 2-3x that in their international box office runs.
While we place token value to market share stats (low –to-no correlation to profits!), Disney should take the top honors domestically
and internationally this year.
Exhibit 7: Disney Summer Film Comparisons 2015 vs 2014
Source: boxofficemojo, ERC, Reel Source, JBL Advisors estimates
We believe with a new studio head (Alan Horn), significant tent-pole films on the release schedule over the next two years or so, and
the addition of the Star Wars franchise from LucasFilms, profitability at the studio can exceed the $2.0 billion level from the $1.5
billion level (F2014) over the next three years. A key element to the valuation equation for Investors is that the financial success of
the studio is broad-based, should be long-lived and not dominated by one film or franchise.
The following table indicates the most highly anticipated films scheduled for release on the schedule through 2017. While dates may
shift around, we think most of the films should be released near their current scheduled release.
Est
Film Genre Release DBOG Film Genre Release DBOG
Date Mil. Date Mil.
Avengers: Age of Ultron Action 5/1 $550 Million Dollar Arm Sports 5/16 $36.5
Tomorrowland Sci-Fi 5/22 $160 Maleficent Fantasy 5/30 $241.4
Inside Out Animated 6/19 $275 Planes, Fire & Rescue Animation 7/18 $59.2
Ant-Man Action 7/17 $190 Guardians Action 8/1 $332.9
100 Foot Journey Drama 8/8 $54.2
TOTAL $1,175 TOTAL $724.2
Disney Summer Film Comps 2015 vs 2014
2015 2014
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
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9
JBL Advisors, LLC.
Exhibit 8: Disney Highly Anticipated Films, 2015-2017
Source: BoxOfficeMojo, ERC, Company Reports
Exhibits 9 denotes the recovery in profitability the studio has experienced the past year or so. Most investors realize the significant
contributions from Frozen which should contribute in excess of $1 billion in operating income over its first 24 months in release. One
thing important for investors to remember is the timing of earnings from any particular film’s release is influenced by accounting
rules (SOP 00-2) which require all distribution costs to be expensed as incurred (i.e. – the vast majority of those dollars are spent
before a film’s release and oftentimes in the quarter or two preceding the generation of any meaningful revenues). We also note
that the home video market remains in transition from a physical media product (BR, DVD) to a digitally delivered product which has
yet to catch-up to the hard disk revenue generation of five to seven years ago. Countering a good portion of the shortfall in home
video has been the phenomenal growth in international box office revenues, incremental contributions from 3D releases and growing
EST revenues. Thankfully the significant declines in packaged media revenues has leveled off. We would also note that there still
remains large population centers globally (especially in Russia, China, India and Latin America) that are becoming avid moviegoers as
well as consumers of digital platforms.
The following exhibits visualize the Studio segment’s revenue, operating income and margins.
Calendar 2015 -2017 Films Talent Expected Release Date
The Avengers: Age ofUltron Robert Downey Jr. 5/1/15
Tomorrowland George Clooney 5/22/15
Inside Out Pixar 6/19/15
Ant-Man Paul Rudd, Michael Douglas 7/17/15
Bridge ofSpies Tom Hanks 10/16/15
The Good Dinosaur Neil Patrick Harris 11/25/15
Star Wars: Episode VII J.J. Abrams 12/18/15
The Jungle Book Idris Elba 4/15/16
Captain America: Civil War Chris Evans, Robert Downey Jr. 5/6/16
Alice in Wonderland 2 Johnny Depp, Mia Wasikowski 5/27/16
Finding Dory Pixar 6/17/16
Pete's Dragon Bryce Dallas Howard 8/12/16
Doctor Strange Benedict Cumberbatch 11/4/16
Star Wars: Rogue One 12/16/16
Beauty and the Beast Emma Watson 3/17/17
Guardians ofthe Galaxy 2 Chris Pratt 5/5/17
Star Wars 8 5/27/17
Toy Story 4 Pixar 6/16/17
Pirates ofthe Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Johnny Depp 7/7/17
Thor: Ragnorok 11/3/17
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
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Exhibit 9: Studio Entertainment Quarterly Revenue and Operating Income Profile, F2013-F2015E
Fiscal years end September
Source: Company Reports and JBL Advisors estimates
$1,545
$1,338
$1,590
$1,506
$1,893
$1,800 $1,807 $1,778
$1,858 $1,850 $1,850 $1,842
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Studio Entertainment Revenue
in millions
$234
$118
$201
$108
$409
$475
$411
$254
$544
$475
$425
$256
-300.0%
-200.0%
-100.0%
0.0%
100.0%
200.0%
300.0%
400.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Studio Entertainment Operating Income
in millions
15.1%
8.8%
12.6%
7.2%
21.6%
26.4%
22.7%
14.3%
29.3%
25.7%
23.0%
13.9%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Studio Entertainment Operating Income Margin
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
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JBL Advisors, LLC.
Broadcasting: Disney owns and operates the ABC Television Network and eight local market TV stations (NY, LA, Chicago,
Philadelphia, SF, Houston, Raleigh-Durham and Fresno). Through broadcast carriage agreements, ABC is aired in over 240 television
markets in the US and is available in 99% of the domestic television households. The company also owns 33% of the OTT digital
content provider Hulu (along with Fox and NBC Universal). Broadcasting accounts for approximately 12% of the annual revenues and
6.1% of the operating income on F2015E.
The key drivers of the Broadcasting segment are ratings for the ABC network and success of owned and distributed series at ABC
Studios, as well as local and national advertising rates. The improvement in the economy over the past few years has helped push
annual ad revenues up mid-to-high single digit annually, although ratings erosion has eaten away at a measurable portion of the ad
rate increases. Enhancing the segment’s revenues and operating income the past few years has been retransmission fees that cable
and satellite system operators are now paying to broadcast the ABC network. Disney has noted that they expect retransmission fees
to be in the ~$500 million range annually by F2015. We believe that can grow-up towards the $750 million level over the next few
years, especially as retrans 2.0 emerges at the end of the decade. The growth quotient should be powered as well by the Presidential
and general election cycle in FY2016 and 1Q F2017.
The following exhibits detail the revenue, operating income and margins of Disney’s Broadcast business.
Exhibit 10: Broadcasting Quarterly Revenue and Operating Income Profile, F2013-F2015E
$1,563 $1,499
$1,468
$1,373
$1,531 $1,501
$1,569
$1,441
$1,694
$1,550
$1,515 $1,491
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Broadcasting Revenue
in millions
$262
$138
$213
$158
$178
$159
$354
$163
$240
$163
$300
$172
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Broadcasting Operating Income
in millions
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
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12
JBL Advisors, LLC.
Source: Company Reports and JBL Advisors estimates
Theme Parks & Resorts: Disney owns (or operates) five destination resorts worldwide (US – two, Japan – 0%, Hong Kong (48%
owned) & France (51% owned) with Shanghai (43% owned) expected to open in F2016), four cruise liners (and one island in the
Caribbean!), over 38,000 hotel rooms and close to 3,550 Vacation Club accommodations as well as a wide and extensive variety of
guest amenities (golf courses, restaurants, NASCAR race track, Disney Institute, MLB spring training facility, water parks, etc.) and
raw land. The segment accounts for approximately 31.3% of the company’s revenues and 21% of its operating income. It is by far
the most labor intensive and most sensitive to changes that affect retirement and medical benefits.
The division has three important dynamics occurring presently that should help push OI growth into the double digit range for the
next two or three years. First, the domestic economy stabilization has enabled a healthy flow through of pricing increase at the
parks, complemented nicely by 3%-5% per-capita spending gains. Secondly, margin expansion has and should continue to be a
meaningful contributor to OI growth through 2017. Third, it is in the middle of a five year, extensive capacity expansion program
that should add an incremental $700-750 million or more to the segment’s operating income through 2017 (above F2014’s $2.66
billion). The dynamics of a stabilized economy, margin expansion and capacity expansion should help sustain a healthy premium
valuation quotient for years to come. We believe this is one of the two key drivers to creating shareholder sentiment and value over
the next few years.
The opening of Shanghai Disney is likely to be a key catalyst in F2016 and earnings contributor (management fees and royalties which
are likely to be In the $250 million range) in F2017 and beyond. Disney owns 43% of the equity of Shanghai Disney and will have
invested about $2.3 billion in the park by opening day.
16.8%
9.2%
14.5%
11.5% 11.6%
10.6%
22.6%
11.3%
14.2%
10.5%
19.8%
11.5%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Broadcasting Operating Income Margin
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
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JBL Advisors, LLC.
Exhibit 11: Theme Parks and Resorts Quarterly Revenue and Operating Income Profile, F2013-F2015E
Fiscal years end September
Source: Company Reports and JBL Advisors estimates
$3,391
$3,302
$3,678 $3,716 $3,597
$3,562
$3,980 $3,960 $3,910
$3,775
$4,300 $4,265
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Parks & Resorts Revenue
in millions
$952
$1,724
$2,087
$1,284 $1,277
$1,974 $1,942
$1,274 $1,255
$2,050
$2,125
$1,420
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Parks & Resorts Operating Income
in millions
17.0%
11.6%
18.7%
15.4%
22.4%
12.8%
21.3%
17.3%
20.6%
13.2%
22.1%
17.5%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Parks & Resorts Operating Income Margin
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
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JBL Advisors, LLC.
Consumer Products: Disney has been a worldwide leader in the licensing of consumer products based on its franchises, publishing,
and a wide variety of merchandising with almost every major retailer worldwide. The segment was driven in large part historically by
its Mickey & Minnie Mouse and Winnie the Pooh franchises and complemented by its successful animated film product and
characters (Lion King, etc.). The past five years or so have propelled Disney even further with the addition of Pixar (Cars, Toy Story,
etc.), Marvel super heroes (Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, Avengers, Ant-Man etc.), unprecedented commercial success of Frozen
and soon the renewed shelf life of the Star Wars characters via LucasFilms in Christmas 2015.
While it is growing towards the $4.4 billion revenue mark (about 8.5% of revenues) and exceeds $1.6 billion in operating income
(close to 11.5% of the company’s expected $14.3 billion OI in F2015), the ability to monetize its growing group of characters and
franchises in licensing and merchandising is providing a healthy contribution to the overall company. The beauty and value
proposition for investors remains the broad base nature of the contributors to its Consumer Products business lines so that the
evolution of annual characters does not compare unfavorably.
The following exhibit delineate the financial dynamics of Disney’s Consumer Products business. We believe the enhanced operating
margin profile is a result of the success of the Frozen franchise and anticipated incremental contributions of Star Wars.
Exhibit 12: Consumer Products Quarterly Revenue and Operating Income Profile, F2013-F2015E
$1,013
$763 $775
$1,004
$1,126
$885 $902
$1,072
$1,379
$975
$900
$1,146
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Consumer Products Revenue
in millions
$346
$200
$219
$347
$430
$274
$273
$379
$626
$310 $300
$414
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
50.0%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Y-O-Y
Consumer Products Operating Income
in millions
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
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JBL Advisors, LLC.
Fiscal years end September
Source: Company Reports and JBL Advisors estimates
Interactive Media: The Interactive Media segment designs, develops, publishes and distributes content though a portfolio of
websites and other digital platforms. A major portion of the segments revenues come from interactive games that utilize multiple
platforms (game consoles, PC, tablet and mobile devices, amongst others). Its introduction of the Infinity play line has sparked
considerable interest in the cross-platform gaming of toys and digital media over the past two years. Disney has two new locomotives
that are likely to be multi-year drivers of revenues in its Frozen and Star Wars franchises. The segment turned profitable in F2014
and should be a double digit EBIT grower over the next several years.
MANAGEMENT
Bob Iger – Chairman & CEO Mr. Iger joined Disney as part of the company’s acquisition of CapCities ABC in 1996. He has risen through
the ranks at Disney and became President from 2000-2006 and CEO in 2005.
Tom Staggs – COO – Recently promoted to the COO position after almost 5-years as Chairman of the Theme Parks and Resorts. Prior
to that, he served as CFO for The Walt Disney Company from 1998 to 2010.
Jay Rasulo – CFO Mr. Rasulo has served as CFO since 2010. Prior to his current role, Mr. Rasulo served as Chairman of Walt Disney
Theme Parks and Resorts since 2000.
FINANCIALS
Disney’s balance sheet remains the most under levered in the media – entertainment industry, despite the capital intensive nature
of its theme parks and resorts. It currently trades at approximately 12.5x our 2015E and 11.0x EV/EBITDA on F2016E, even when
incorporating the debt of its minority owned Euro-Disney and Hong Kong Disneyland.
We expect Disney to grow revenues at mid-to-high single digit pace over the next three years, especially as theme park expansion
rolls out and matures, incremental affiliate and retransmission fees grow and the Consumer Product segment grows revenue dollars
at a faster pace as the LucasFilm and Marvel businesses become bigger revenue generators via film and television projects. EBITDA
is expected to grow at a mid-teen percentage pace and EPS should grow at a similar pace (or perhaps faster if share repurchases
accelerate). We forecast percentage gains in the teens for EPS through F2017.
34.2%
26.2%
28.3%
34.6%
38.2%
31.0% 30.3%
35.4%
45.4%
31.8%
33.3%
36.1%
1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E
Consumer Products Operating Income Margin
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
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JBL Advisors, LLC.
VALUATION
Disney has captured the premium valuation amongst the large cap entertainment equities over the past two decades because of the
irreplaceable value of its brands, franchises, fundamentals (most years), and financials. It has typically traded at 10%-30% premiums
to the group on an EV/EBITDA basis. We estimate EBITDA CAGR (F2013 – F2017) to be close to 12% and its EPS CAGR during the same
period is estimated to be approximately 17%, levels that have been and should continue to be highly attractive to large cap growth
investors. We also believe that its underlevered balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA at 0.7x based on F2015E), accelerating FCF growth,
enhanced decapitalization, and dividend increases compliment the premium valuation Disney has consistently been afforded. Disney
and each of the other major entertainment equities have seen healthy multiple expansion from depressed levels of three or four
years ago as investor confidence and sentiment has grown as FCF has been redirected back to shareholders versus M&A activity that
did not turn out to be as appreciated by the market.
The following exhibits visually compare traditional valuation metrics for the large cap entertainment conglomerates. While Disney
trades at a 20% or so premium to its best peers (FOXA and TWX), this has been true for some time given the quality of its earnings
growth (not simply manufactured by decapitalization) and the consistency of its operating segments. We do not see Disney losing
its premium P/E valuation given its superior growth to the S&P 500, quality of its reported earnings and its growth quotient over the
next 3 fiscal years.
Exhibit 13: Large Cap Entertainment Stocks 2016E P/E Valuations
Source: ThomsonOne and JBL Advisors estimates
18.5x
14.1x
15.5x
9.9x
16.8x
DIS FOXA TWX VIAB S&P 500
2016E P/E
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JBL Advisors, LLC.
Exhibit 14: Large Cap Entertainment Stocks 2016E EV/EBITDA Valuations
Source: ThomsonOne and JBL Advisors estimates
Exhibit 15: Large Cap Entertainment Companies EPS Growth vs S&P 500, F2015E & F2016E
Source: Company Reports, ThomsonOne, and JBL Advisors estimates
Our valuation matrix for Disney will use DCF, EV/EBITDA, and Price/Earnings tools. We think a blended approach should give investors
a fair cross-balance that captures the variety of investor sentiment variables typically employed to arrive at targeted valuations in
healthy and volatile markets.
11.0x
11.8x
10.9x
8.8x
DIS FOXA TWX VIAB
EV/EBITDA F2016E
15.1%
1.1%
5.7% 6.6% 5.7%
16.5%
20.4%
18.0%
13.5%
6.5%
DIS FOXA TWX VIAB S&P 500
Estimated EPS Growth
2015E EPS Growth 2016E EPS Growth
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JBL Advisors, LLC.
As an added level of cross check and comfort and for those investors seeking the added quant base of EVA, Disney scores
exceptionally well with a positive 1000 bps on the Economic Value Added (EVA) comparable (ROE-WACC).
Our DCF model, using an 7.16% WACC, beta of 1.16, market risk premium of 5%, terminal growth rate of 3%, and an 12.0x terminal
multiple yields a present value of $132.04 (please see our attached model to see the matrix of various terminal multiples). We believe
more quantitatively driven investors weight the DCF tool very heavily in deriving their valuation target.
Using an EV/EBITDA tool, with $17.730 billion in F2016E EBITDA, net debt (which includes Euro, Shanghai & Hong Kong theme park
debt) of $11.466 billion, a current enterprise value of $197.3 billion, and using our estimated average share count of 1.65 billion for
F2016 on a 12.0x multiple yields a price target of $122.00.
Disney has traditionally been the only entertainment equity that has a large segment of institutional investors who heavily weight
EPS and P/E ratio. Disney has traded at 1.0x to 1.5x the S&P 500P/E multiple over the past 10 years and the swings from high to low
(or vice-versa) have often been driven by macro-financial/economic factors away from Disney’s own fundamentals. Its estimated
mid-teen EPS growth over the next three years, with most of the growth coming from organic sources, does not make a 20% premium
to the S&P 500 multiple unreasonable in our opinion. At 20.0x, our F2016 EPS estimate yields a price target of $115.80.
Equally weighting each of the valuation tools (DCF based - $132.04; EV/EBITDA based- $122.00; P/E based - $115.80) leads us to our
$124.00 price target over the next twelve months.
We believe that mid-teen potential stock appreciation should position Disney to outperform the S&P 500 over the next year and
hence our Outperform rating.
INVESTMENT RISKS
Investment risks for Disney’s equity will likely center around five variables away from the normal global financial – geopolitical –
world health – capital markets issues that could impact all companies. The largest risk in our opinion revolves around ESPN’s ability
to maintain carriage and ratings against the perception of competition in the live sports events business (against Fox Sports 1, NBC
Sports, CBS Sports, etc.). Second, a change in the macro domestic economic outlook has historically compressed expectations for
the Theme Park and Resorts businesses. Third, delays in major expansion projects internationally in the Theme Parks and Resorts
segment would have an impact on investor sentiment. Fourth, contributions from international parks has been volatile at times, any
major downside in earnings expectations could influence Disney’s earnings and stock price. Lastly, Disney has made a number of
acquisitions the past few years which from time-to-time raise ROIC commentary that has been critical of its acquisitions.
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
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JBL Advisors, LLC.
Exhibit 16: The Walt Disney Company Income Statement and Projections ($ in millions)
The Walt Disney Company
Earnings Model (Fiscal Year End September)
(Millions, except per-share data)
F2014 F2015 % F2014 F2015E % F2014 F2015E % F2014 F2015E % F2014 % F2015E % F2016E % F2017E %
Revenue
Broadcasting $1,531.0 $1,694.0 11% $1,501.0 $1,550.0 3% $1,569.0 $1,515.0 -3% $1,441.0 $1,491.0 3% $6,042.0 2% $6,250.0 3% $6,350.0 2% $6,575.0 4%
Cable Networks 3,759.0 4,166.0 11% 3,633.0 3,850.0 6% 3,942.0 4,200.0 7% 3,776.0 4,134.0 9% 15,110.0 5% 16,350.0 8% 17,550.0 7% 18,850.0 7%
Parks & Resorts 3,597.0 3,910.0 9% 3,562.0 3,775.0 6% 3,980.0 4,300.0 8% 3,960.0 4,265.0 8% 15,099.0 7% 16,250.0 8% 17,500.0 8% 18,750.0 7%
Studio Entertainment 1,893.0 1,858.0 -2% 1,800.0 1,850.0 3% 1,807.0 1,850.0 2% 1,778.0 1,842.0 4% 7,278.0 22% 7,400.0 2% 8,000.0 8% 8,600.0 8%
Consumer Products 1,126.0 1,379.0 22% 885.0 975.0 10% 902.0 900.0 0% 1,072.0 1,146.0 7% 3,985.0 12% 4,400.0 10% 4,800.0 9% 5,250.0 9%
Interactive Media 403.0 384.0 -5% 268.0 280.0 4% 266.0 275.0 3% 362.0 386.0 7% 1,299.0 22% 1,325.0 2% 1,450.0 9% 1,575.0 9%
Total Revenue 12,309.0 13,391.0 9% 11,649.0 12,280.0 5% 12,466.0 13,040.0 5% 12,389.0 13,264.0 7% 48,813.0 8% 51,975.0 6% 55,650.0 7% 59,600.0 7%
Operating Income (EBIT)
Broadcasting 178.0 240.0 35% 159.0 163.0 3% 354.0 300.0 -15% 163.0 172.0 6% 854.0 11% 875.0 2% 925.0 6% 1,000.0 8%
Cable Networks 1,277.0 1,255.0 -2% 1,974.0 2,000.0 1% 1,942.0 2,125.0 9% 1,274.0 1,470.0 15% 6,467.0 7% 6,850.0 6% 7,700.0 12% 8,400.0 9%
Parks & Resorts 671.0 805.0 20% 457.0 500.0 9% 848.0 950.0 12% 687.0 745.0 8% 2,663.0 20% 3,000.0 13% 3,275.0 9% 3,600.0 10%
Studio Entertainment 409.0 544.0 33% 475.0 450.0 -5% 411.0 425.0 3% 254.0 281.0 11% 1,549.0 134% 1,700.0 10% 2,000.0 18% 2,150.0 8%
Consumer Products 430.0 626.0 46% 274.0 310.0 13% 273.0 300.0 10% 379.0 414.0 9% 1,356.0 22% 1,650.0 22% 1,900.0 15% 2,000.0 5%
Interactive Media 55.0 75.0 36% 14.0 25.0 79% 29.0 12.5 -57% 18.0 102.5 469% 116.0 215.0 250.0 275.0
Total Operating Income 3,020.0 3,545.0 17% 3,353.0 3,448.0 3% 3,857.0 4,112.5 7% 2,775.0 3,184.5 15% 13,005.0 21% 14,290.0 10% 16,050.0 12% 17,425.0 9%
Corporate Expense (116.0) (125.0) (155.0) (160.0) (137.0) (155.0) (203.0) (150.0) (611.0) (590.0) (620.0) (650.0)
Net Interest Expense & Other 49.0 (58.0) 62.0 (50.0) (50.0) (45.0) (38.0) (47.0) 23.0 (200.0) (175.0) (175.0)
Restructuring & Impairment Losses (19.0) 0.0 (48.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (73.0) 0.0 (140.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Other items 6.0 0.0 (37.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (31.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pre-Tax Income 2,940.0 3,362.0 14% 3,175.0 3,238.0 2% 3,670.0 3,912.5 7% 2,461.0 2,987.5 21% 12,246.0 27% 13,500.0 10% 15,255.0 13% 16,600.0 9%
Income Taxes (1,036.0) (1,118.0) 33% (1,119.0) (1,100.9) 34% (1,251.0) (1,291.1) 33% (836.0) (945.0) 32% (4,242.0) 35% (4,455.0) 33% (5,034.2) 33% (5,478.0) 33%
Net Income 1,904.0 2,244.0 18% 2,056.0 2,137.1 4% 2,419.0 2,621.4 8% 1,625.0 2,042.6 26% 8,004.0 21% 9,045.0 13% 10,220.9 13% 11,122.0 9%
Acctg.Changes/Derivatives 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Non-Controlling interests (64.0) (62.0) (139.0) (190.0) (174.0) (210.0) (126.0) (138.0) (503.0) (600.0) (660.0) (726.0)
Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Income to Disney $1,840.0 $2,182.0 19% $1,917.0 $1,947.1 2% $2,245.0 $2,411.4 7% $1,499.0 $1,904.6 27% $7,501.0 22% $8,445.0 13% $9,560.9 13% $10,396.0 9%
Net EPS $1.03 $1.27 $1.08 $1.14 $1.28 $1.42 $0.86 $1.13 $4.26 $4.97 $5.79 $6.40
EPS from Continuing Ops $1.04 $1.27 22% $1.10 $1.14 4% $1.28 $1.42 11% $0.89 $1.13 27% $4.32 28% $4.97 15% $5.79 17% $6.40 10%
Outstanding Shares Diluted 1,784 1,717 1,770 1,705 1,748 1,695 1,734 1,680 1,759 1,699 1,650 1,625
EBITDA 3,454.0 3,955.0 15% 3,789.0 3,288.0 -13% 4,320.0 3,957.5 -8% 2,895.0 4,634.5 60% 14,458.0 17% 15,835.0 10% 17,730.0 12% 19,425.0 10%
Operating Margins
Broadcasting 11.6% 14.2% 10.6% 10.5% 22.6% 19.8% 11.3% 11.5% 14.1% 14.0% 14.6% 15.2%
Cable Networks 34.0% 30.1% 54.3% 51.9% 49.3% 50.6% 33.7% 35.6% 42.8% 41.9% 43.9% 44.6%
Theme Parks & Resorts 18.7% 20.6% 12.8% 13.2% 21.3% 22.1% 17.3% 17.5% 17.6% 18.5% 18.7% 19.2%
Studio Entertainment 21.6% 29.3% 26.4% 24.3% 22.7% 23.0% 14.3% 15.3% 21.3% 23.0% 25.0% 25.0%
CP + Internet Media 31.7% 39.8% 25.0% 26.7% 25.9% 26.6% 27.7% 33.7% 27.9% 32.6% 34.4% 33.3%
Operating 24.5% 26.5% 28.8% 28.1% 30.9% 31.5% 22.4% 24.0% 26.6% 27.5% 28.8% 29.2%
EBITDA 28.1% 29.5% 32.5% 26.8% 34.7% 30.3% 23.4% 34.9% 29.6% 30.5% 31.9% 32.6%
Tax Rate 35.2% 33.3% 35.2% 34.0% 34.1% 33.0% 34.0% 31.6% 34.6% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0%
Source: JBL Advisors estimates and Disney corporate reports.
Updated 4/15/15
JuneDecember March Year Ended SeptemberSeptember
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
20
JBL Advisors, LLC.
Exhibit 17: The Walt Disney Company Balance Sheet ($ in millions)
The Walt Disney Company
Balance Sheet
$/mil 10/2/2010 10/1/2011 9/29/2012 9/28/2013 9/27/2014 12/27/2014
Assets
Cash and cash equivalents $2,722.0 $3,185.0 $3,387.0 $3,931.0 $3,421.0 $5,077.0
Receivables 5,784.0 6,182.0 6,540.0 6,967.0 7,822.0 8,591.0
Inventories 1,442.0 1,595.0 1,537.0 1,487.0 1,574.0 1,476.0
Television costs & advances 678.0 674.0 676.0 634.0 1,061.0 712.0
Deferred income taxes 1,018.0 1,487.0 765.0 485.0 497.0 452.0
Other assets 581.0 634.0 804.0 605.0 801.0 932.0
Total Current Assets 12,225 13,757 13,709 14,109 15,176 17,240
Film and television costs 4,773.0 4,357.0 4,541.0 4,783.0 5,325.0 5,672.0
Investments 2,513.0 2,435.0 2,723.0 2,849.0 2,696.0 2,642.0
Theme parks, resorts and other property, net 14,502.0 15,943.0 17,895.0 18,733.0 18,541.0 18,279.0
Projects in progress and land 3,304.0 3,752.0 3,617.0 3,647.0 4,791.0 5,381.0
Intangible assets, net 5,081.0 5,121.0 5,015.0 7,370.0 7,434.0 7,369.0
Goodwill, net 24,100.0 24,145.0 25,110.0 27,324.0 27,881.0 27,849.0
Other assets 2,708 2,614 2,288 2,426 2,342 2,603
Total Assets $69,206 $72,124 $74,898 $81,241 $84,186 $87,035
Liabilities And Shareholders' Equity
Accounts,taxes payable,accrued liabilities $6,109 $6,362 $6,393 $6,803 $7,595 $9,069
Current borrowings 2,350 3,055 3,614 1,512 2,164 4,376
Unearned royalty and other advances 2,541 2,671 2,806 3,389 3,533 3,359
Total Current Liabilities 11,000 12,088 12,813 11,704 13,292 16,804
Long-term borrowings 10,130 10,922 10,697 12,776 12,676 12,167
Deferred income taxes 2,630 2,866 2,251 4,050 4,098 4,414
Other long-term liabilities 6,104 6,795 7,179 4,561 5,942 5,857
Total Liabilities 29,864 32,671 32,940 33,091 36,008 39,242
Common stock 28,736 30,296 31,731 33,440 34,301 34,488
Retained earnings 34,327 38,375 42,965 47,758 53,734 53,969
Cumulative translation and other adjustments (1,881) (2,630) (3,266) (1,187) (1,968) (1,880)
Treasury shares, at cost (23,663) (28,656) (31,671) (34,582) (41,109) (42,412)
Non-controlling interest 1,823 2,068 2,199 2,721 3,220 3,628
Shareholders' Equity 39,342 39,453 41,958 48,150 48,178 47,793
Liabilities And Shareholders' Equity $69,206 $72,124 $74,898 $81,241 $84,186 $87,035
Debt $12,480 $13,977 $14,311 $14,288 $14,840 $16,543
Cash (2,722) (3,185) (3,387) (3,931) (3,421) (5,077)
Net debt $9,758 $10,792 $10,924 $10,357 $11,419 $11,466
Source: JBL Advisors estimates and Disney corporate reports.
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
21
JBL Advisors, LLC.
Exhibit 18: The Walt Disney Company Free Cash Flow Model ($ in millions)
The Walt Disney Company
Simplified Free Cash Flow Analysis
(Millions, except per share amounts) F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015E F2016E F2017E
Net Income $4,313 $4,807 $5,682 $6,136 $7,501 $8,445 $9,561 $10,396
Plus: D&A 1,713 1,841 1,987 2,192 2,064 2,135 2,300 2,300
After-Tax Cash Flow 6,026 6,648 7,669 8,328 9,565 10,580 11,861 12,696
Less: CAPEX (2,110) (3,559) (3,785) (2,796) (3,311) (3,950) (4,100) (3,000)
Change in Net Working Capital (266) (1,139) (1,091) 103 (272) (100) (100) (100)
Other (Loss) 818 1,485 58 1,227 1,042 500 500 500
After-Tax Free Cash Flow 4,468 3,435 2,851 6,862 7,024 7,030 8,161 10,096
Fully diluted shares out 1,948 1,909 1,818 1,813 1,759 1,699 1,650 1,625
Free Cash Flow Per Share $2.29 $1.80 $1.57 $3.78 $3.99 $4.14 $4.95 $6.21
Dividends $0.35 $0.40 $0.60 $0.75 $0.86 $1.15 $1.30 $1.45
Source: JBL Advisors estimates and Disney corporate reports.
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
22
JBL Advisors, LLC.
Exhibit 19: The Walt Disney Company Discounted Cash Flow Model ($ in millions)
The Walt Disney Company
Discounted Cash Flow Model
(Millions, except per-share data) F2012 F2013 F2014E F2015E F2016E F2017E F2018E F2019E
Debt Forecast Amount EBITDA $11,477 $12,385 $14,458 $15,835 $17,730 $19,425 $21,282 $23,317
LT debt + current portion 16,543$ Yr/Yr % 12.4% 7.9% 16.7% 9.5% 12.0% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6%
Current Cash (5,077) Less: Depr. & amort. 1,987 2,192 2,064 2,135 2,300 2,650 2,650 2,650
Net Debt 11,466$ EBIT $9,490 $10,193 $12,394 $13,700 $15,430 $16,775 $18,632 $20,667
Less: Tax @ Corp Rate 3,132 3,364 4,090 4,521 5,092 5,536 6,149 6,820
Est Annual Net Interest. Expense 200.0$ Plus: Depr. & amort. 1,987 2,192 2,064 2,135 2,300 2,650 2,650 2,650
Est Net Cost of Debt 2.3% Less: CapX 3,785 2,796 3,311 (3,950) (4,100) (3,000) (2,750) (2,750)
Unlevered free cash flow 4,560 6,225 7,057 15,264 16,738 16,889 17,883 19,247
Discount periods 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0
WACC Calculation Discounted UFCF @ WACC -1 14,377 14,850 14,114 14,945 15,150
Beta 1.16 Discounted UFCF @ WACC 14,243 14,574 13,723 14,530 14,592
Risk-free rate (10 yr treasuries) 1.86% Discounted UFCF @ WACC+1 14,111 14,306 13,345 14,131 14,060
Market risk premium 5.00%
Cost of equity (CAPM) 7.66% Terminal Value-F2020E EBITDA
10.0x $240,161
Stock Price @04/15/15 $107.15 11.0x 264,177
Market value of equity 188,477 12.0x 288,193
Book debt 16,543 13.0x 312,210
Weighted average cost of debt 2.26%
Corporate tax rate 33.0% Terminal Value Multiple @ WACC-1 Terminal Value Multiple @ WACC Terminal Value Multiple @ WACC+1
MV/(MV+debt) 91.9% 10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x 10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x 10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x
Debt/(MV+debt) 8.1% Sum of discounted FCF 73,436 73,436 73,436 73,436 71,662 71,662 71,662 71,662 69,953 69,953 69,953 69,953
PV of terminal value 189,046 207,951 226,856 245,760 182,086 200,295 218,504 236,712 175,444 192,988 210,533 228,077
WACC 7.16% PV Enterprise Value 262,482 281,387 300,292 319,196 253,748 271,957 290,166 308,374 245,397 262,941 280,485 298,030
Assumptions Less: debt 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543
Terminal growth rate 3.0% Plus: cash 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077
Discount back to F2015E PV Equity 251,016 269,921 288,826 307,730 242,282 260,491 278,700 296,908 233,931 251,475 269,019 286,564
WACC 7.2%
EBIT CAGR F2009 - F2019E 18.6% Shares outstanding 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759
Corporate tax rate 33.0% Calculated one-year share price $142.70 $153.45 $164.20 $174.95 $137.74 $148.09 $158.44 $168.79 $132.99 $142.96 $152.94 $162.91
Public market discount 20.0% Value at public discount (20%) $118.92 $127.88 $136.83 $145.79 $114.78 $123.41 $132.04 $140.66 $110.83 $119.14 $127.45 $135.76
Source: JBL Advisors estimates and Disney corporate reports.
8.3x
9.0x
9.4x 9.4x 9.1x
11.8x
12.2x 12.4x
6.5x
5.1x
7.4x
6.3x
6.9x 7.6x
9.3x
10.5x
7.4x
7.0x
8.4x
7.8x 8.0x
9.7x
10.8x
11.5x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
11.0x
12.0x
13.0x
08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E
EV/EBITDA Trading Range
14E (-) = current price
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
23
JBL Advisors, LLC.
Companies mentioned in this report: Amazon (AMZN - $385.30); AMC Entertainment (AMC - $33.91); Carmike Cinemas (CKEC -
$31.88); Cinemark (CNK - $43.04); Cineplex (CGX.TO - C$48.14); Comcast (CMCSA - $59.91); DreamWorks Animation (DWA - $25.77);
21st Century Fox (FOXA - $34.15); IMAX (IMAX - $35.86); JP Morgan (JPM - $ 64.21); Lions Gate (LGF - $31.01); National CineMedia
(NCMI - $15.83); Netflix (NFLX - $535.71); Real D (RLD - $12.25); Regal Entertainment (RGC - $22.25); Sony (SNE- $31.75); Time
Warner (TWX - $85.00); Viacom (VIAB - $70.64). Prices as of 4/15/15.
JBL Advisors Rating System:
OUTPERFORM – We estimate the stock will outperform the S&P 500 in total return by 15% over the following 12-month period.
MARKET PERFORM – We estimate the stock will generate a total return that is within 5% (above or below) the S&P 500.
UNDERPERFORM - We estimate the stock will underperform the S&P 500 by 10% over the following 12-month period.
SHORT – We estimate the stock will decline more than 20% in the following 12-months.
DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation
REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT
24
JBL Advisors, LLC.
IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION - DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES
I, Jeffrey Logsdon, author of this research report, hereby certify that that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my
personal views about the subject securities and issuers. No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related
to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.
JBL Advisors, LLC. is a Registered Investment Advisor. JBL Advisors, LLC. does not manage individual investment or trading accounts
nor does it maintain custody of assets or securities of accounts of any individual.
Information, opinions, or recommendations contained in this report are submitted solely for advisory and information purposes.
While the information has been taken from sources believed reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, or
otherwise. The opinions expressed are those of the analyst and are subject to change without notice. The report or study is not
intended to be construed as an offering or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned or discussed. The
investments referred to may not be suitable for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of recipients and
should not be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Neither JBL Advisors, LLC. nor other associated
persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive, or exemplary damages, including but not
limited to loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this material. This material is for the use of the
intended recipients only. Distribution of this document is intended solely for institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 under
the U.S. Securities Act of 1934. All persons that receive this document by their acceptance thereof represent and agree that they
are a major institutional investor and understand the risks involved in executing transactions in securities.
JBL Advisors, LLC. is not a market maker in debt or equity securities and does not sell securities to or buy securities from customers
on a principal basis. JBL Advisors, LLC. does not have an investment banking, advisory, fee-for service or other compensated
business relationship with the companies mentioned in this report, and was not a manager or co-manager of any offering for any of
the companies at any time in the past 3 years.
Analysts, associates and members of their households may from time to time maintain a financial interest in the securities of
companies in the analyst’s area of coverage or mentioned in its research publications, subject to compliance with applicable
regulations. A family member of the analyst maintains an investment in Regal Entertainment Group, Inc. of less than $100,000.
JBL Advisors, LLC. prohibits analysts and associates from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any
company that the firm provides research coverage.
This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose by another person without prior consent from JBL
Advisors. Should you need additional information please contact:
Laurie A. Logsdon, CFA (laurie@jbladvisors.com)
JBL Advisors, LLC
4000 Barranca Parkway. Suite 250
Irvine, California 92604
www.jbladvisors.com

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DIS Initiation 2015

  • 1. JBL Advisors, LLC. Stock Data Exchange: NYSE 52-week Range: $46.96 - $69.87 Shares Outstanding (million): 1,786 Market cap ($million): $122,055 Net Debt ($million): $10,357 EV ($million): $132,412 Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (million): 7,780 Short Interest (million shares): 36.6 Dividend, annual (% yield): $0.75 (1.10%) State of incorporation: Delaware Auditors: PWC LLP Revenues (US$ million) FY2013A (Cur.) FY2014E (Cur.) FY2015E (Cur.) Q1 Dec 11,341 12,200 NA Q2 Mar 10,554 11,160 NA Q3 Jun 11,578 12,450 NA Q4 Sep 11,568 12,515 NA Total 45,041 48,325E 52,300E EV/Revs 2.9x 2.7x 2.5x Earnings per Share (non-GAAP) FY2013A (Cur.) FY2014E (Cur.) FY2015E (Cur.) Q1 Dec 0.79 0.86 NA Q2 Mar 0.79 0.90 NA Q3 Jun 1.03 1.21 NA Q4 Sep 0.77 0.91 NA Total 3.39 3.88E 4.51E P/E 20.2x 17.6x 15.1x EBIT (US$ million) FY2013A (Cur.) FY2014E (Cur.) FY2015E (Cur.) Q1 Dec 2,380 2,620 NA Q2 Mar 2,509 2,800 NA Q3 Jun 3,351 3,790 NA Q4 Sep 2,484 2,930 NA Total 10,724 12,140E 13,660E EV / EBIT 12.3x 10.9x 9.7x EBIT defined as earnings before interest, taxes, and stock- based compensation. United States Entertainment & Leisure April 16, 2015 Jeffrey B. Logsdon (714) 852 - 3774 jeff@jbladvisors.com Important Disclosures: For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report. We are initiating coverage on DIS with an Outperform rating and a $124.00 price target over the next 12-months. Basis of Recommendation:  Disney is a premier entertainment company with an asset base that is unrivaled in the industry. The mix of uniquely profitable brands, unduplicatable franchises and assets, as well as best in class financials make it a core holding for growth investors.  Theme Parks & Resorts are in the enviable position of benefitting from a normalized economy, middle-innings of significant and profitable capacity expansion (new parks & attractions), and improving operating margins.  ESPN remains a highly prized and valued asset, which along with Disney’s other cable networks should continue to be a catalyst of OI growth over the next two years. While not undiscovered, it is still a powerful earnings driver in dollars and percentages.  Acquisition of LucasFilm and continuing exploitation of Marvel characters in film and TV enhances the creative resources of its Filmed Entertainment business and is highly leveragable operationally and financially at its theme parks, consumer products and interactive segments.  Cross-platform consumer interaction with the brands, characters and franchise portfolio is becoming very profitable. While always a leader in maximizing the cash-earnings generating utilization of its creative output, Disney is accelerating that growth with the addition of LucasFilms.  Share repurchases will compliment organic growth. Disney has reduced its share count by about 12% since 2010 and should continue to return $3-$4 billion in capital annually giving a modest boost to earnings.  Healthy valuation points to meaningful estimated growth in EPS (17% CAGR F2013 – F2017E) and FCF ($2.8b in F2012 to $7.1b in F2017E) as new parks, retransmission fees, affiliate fee increases, dividend growth and better operating margins combine to enhance Disney’s investment attractiveness.  Our 12-month $124.00 price target is based on a blend of DCF, EV/EBITDA and P/E valuation tools. Company Description The Walt Disney Company is one of the most dominant entertainment conglomerates in the world. It is a leading producer and distributor of films and television series, operates premier theme parks worldwide, is a major television broadcaster, controls two of the most profitable cable networks in ESPN and The Disney Channel, as well as successfully building & acquiring new franchises with Star Wars, Marvel characters, Princesses, and Pirates, among others which help it dominate the licensing and merchandising world. The Walt Disney Company Initiating Coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating and $124 Price Target The Magic Kingdom: Momentum Visibility To 2018 COVERAGE INITIATION Rating: Outperform Ticker: DIS Price: $107.15 Target: $124.00 Stock Data Exchange: NYSE 52-week Range: $108.94 - $76.31 Shares Outstanding (million): 1,734 Market cap (million): $185,798 Net Debt (million): $11,466 EV (million): $197,264 ROE (2014) 17.5% ROIC (2014) 18.9% Avg. Daily Trading Vol. (million) 6.55 Short Interest (million shares): 42.0 Dividend, annual (yield): $1.15 (1.07%) Senior Debt Rating: A/A2 Auditors: PWC LLP Revenues (US$ million) F2014A (Cur.) F2015E (Cur.) F2016E (Cur.) Q1 Dec 12,309 13,391A NA Q2 Mar 11,649 12,280 NA Q3 Jun 12,466 13,040 NA Q4 Sep 12,389 13,264 NA Total 48,813 51,975 55,650 EV/Revs 4.0x 3.8x 3.5x Earnings per Share (US$) (Adjusted) F2014A (Cur.) F2015E (Cur.) F2016E (Cur.) Q1 Dec 1.04 1.27A NA Q2 Mar 1.10 1.14 NA Q3 Jun 1.28 1.42 NA Q4 Sep 0.89 1.13 NA Total $4.32 $4.97 $5.79 P/E 24.8x 21.6x 18.5x EBITDA (US$ million) (Adjusted) F2014A (Cur.) F2015E (Cur.) F2016E (Cur.) Q1 Dec 3,454 3,955A NA Q2 Mar 3,789 3,288 NA Q3 Jun 4,320 3,958 NA Q4 Sep 2,895 4,634 NA Total 14,458 15,835 17,730 EV / EBITDA 13.6 x 12.5x 11.1x EBITDA defined as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and stock-based compensation.
  • 2. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 2 JBL Advisors, LLC. INVESTMENT THESIS We believe DIS is very well positioned operationally to see double digit earnings gains in F2015E – F2017E (our earnings model is on Page 18), which we believe should lead to above-average returns for investors this next year. While Disney is not an undiscovered stock, it is likely to remain a core investment holding in most growth portfolios and a momentum investor’s delight given the numerous catalysts (investable themes) in the next two years. We would expect investment returns should at least track EPS growth, which should enable Disney to outperform the investment returns of the S&P 500. Disney should show broad-based fundamental growth, strength at its cable networks, healthy ad markets around ESPN as programming pushes revenues, very positive comps with its film slate and contributions from Lucas Film’s Star Wars 7 and spin off Star Wars: Rogue One, as well as better theme park earnings from Park expansion domestically and internationally. Acceleration in estimated FCF growth in F2017 and beyond as well as a continuation of share repurchases should fuel and complement its fundamental, organic EPS growth. Disney should experience above-index fundamental growth in F2015-F2017. We expect double-digit operating income, EBITDA, and EPS estimated growth in F2015-F2017, driven by broad base contributions from most of its operating segments. We forecast three- year revenue CAGR of 6.9% and EPS of 17% (F2014–F2017E). Disney continues to achieve mid-teen ROIC and has been consistently decapitalizing the company while maintaining a very healthy and attractive capital structure. Exhibit 1: Disney Quarterly Total Revenues F2013 – F2015E Fiscal years end September Source: Company reports, JBL Advisors estimates $11,341 $10,554 $11,578 $11,568 $12,309 $11,649 $12,466 $12,389 $13,391 $12,330 $13,040 $13,214 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Total Revenue in millions
  • 3. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 3 JBL Advisors, LLC. Exhibit 2: Disney Quarterly Operating Income F2013 – F2015E Fiscal years end September Source: Company reports, JBL Advisors estimates ESPN remains a marquee franchise and should generate more than an estimated $4.5 billion of EBITDA in F2015. Cable Networks should continue to push healthy fundamentals as contractual growth in subscriber fees, international expansion, and healthy ratings (driven in part by expanding sports rights worldwide) drive earnings contributions. The group of cable networks should generate an estimated $6.85 billion in operating income in F2015 with over $4 billion coming from ESPN. The financial dynamics of ESPN’s suite of cable networks should be a frequent and important reminder of the value of these franchises and their earnings power, even with the law of large numbers. Retransmission fees should help drive operating income growth. We believe that TV broadcasters and network owners are seeing the financial benefits of retransmission fees and are likely to push the cents per subscribers per month to higher levels as new contractual negotiations evolve over the next 4 years. Disney has gone on record stating that the operating income contributions from retransmission fees are likely to grow to the $400-$500 million level this year and we would expect that to grow towards $750 million plus as retransmission fees 2.0 begins to contribute in F2016 and beyond. This is an exceptional contribution to operating income given the 80% plus pass-through and the current level of operating income at the division ($854 million in F2014). We believe this accords a certain amount of immunity to the vagaries and typical erosion of the ABC networks ratings (live & same day) and fluctuations of local advertising. Capital expenditures at Disney’s Theme Parks and Resorts division should decline meaningfully beginning in F2017 as the major capex cycle from theme park & resorts expansion winds down. The new amenities at a variety of theme parks (Florida, Hong Kong, etc.) and new capacity built over the past few years (California Adventure, etc.) should provide a substantial boost to operating income. Disney has been in the midst of a significant capital expenditure cycle during the past four years, but capex should decline by $1 billion or so in F2017. The expenditures are related to the addition of two cruise ships (at a cost of about $800 million each, Disney Dream launched in F2Q11 and Disney Fantasy launched F3Q12), the Aulani Resort on Oahu (at a cost of around the $500 million level and opened in F2012), a major redesign and rebuild at Disney’s California Adventure in Anaheim including Car’s Land ($1 billion plus), a doubling of Fantasyland in Florida (costing an estimated $800 million), spending on its new 43%-owned Disneyland Shanghai of approximately $2.3 billion for Disney’s share (which will open early in FY2016), and three new lands which opened at Hong Kong Disneyland within the last 24-months. We estimate the aggregate operating income contribution from these investments to reach $700-$800 million annually by FY2015-FY2017, a healthy incremental contribution to the F2014 Theme Parks & Resorts operating income of $2.6 billion. All of these projects should extend and expand existing businesses for a number of years and keep EPS growth percentage in the teens or better. $2,380 $2,509 $3,351 $2,484 $3,020 $3,353 $3,857 $2,775 $3,545 $3,523 $4,113 $3,110 -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Total Operating Income in millions
  • 4. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 4 JBL Advisors, LLC. Disney should see significant growth for the next 3 years in its Studio segment operating income which should be a key investment theme. We estimate Disney’s Studio Entertainment segment’s operating income will grow to $2.2 billion in F2017 from $1.5 billion in F2014 as its major production verticals (Marvel, Pixar and LucasFilms as well as key sequels) rollout worldwide (see our highly anticipated films table on page 8 of this report). The addition of LucasFilms (Star Wars franchises) is already contributing to the Consumer Products segment and should begin to contribute in a more significant proportion to the OI of the Filmed Entertainment division over the next three-to-five years by hundreds of millions of dollars in operating income. The addition of Alan Horn to head the Filmed Entertainment group has dramatically improved the utilization of creative resources and franchises, strategic operating efficiency and profitability of the division. The combination of John Lassiter and Alan Horn is a powerful duo that should continue to have a positive impact on its filmed entertainment and related businesses for years to come. Disney has been a consistent outperformer versus the S&P 500. Seven of the past eight years, Disney’s stock has outperformed the S&P 500 in a meaningful fashion. Overall, since the beginning of 2008, Disney’s stock is up approximately 229% versus a 42% gain for the S&P 500. We acknowledge and call out that past performance is absolutely not an indicator of future returns, but it is an important benchmark for institutional investors that are unlikely to overlook the equity’s performance in tough and bountiful times economically if its operating profile and EPS numbers are healthy. This is a major rationale in our outperform rating as the operating and financial dynamics that have led to the superior performance of the stock the past seven years remain in place and should remain visible for the next two years. The chart below details the annual returns from Disney versus the S&P 500. Exhibit 3: Annual Returns, 2008 – 2015 Year to Date Source: Company reports, Thomson Reuters We believe Disney’s valuation is still attractive at its current 14% premium P/E multiple to the S&P 500 (using F2016E), a mid-point premium to its 7 year range. We estimate that Disney should grow EPS at close to a 17% CAGR (F2014-F2017) versus the S&P 500’s EPS CAGR in the 6.5% - 7.0% over the next 3 years. We believe that a doubling of the earnings growth rate of the most widely-used benchmark index for equities makes its current valuation premium attractive for those who would use GARP valuation methodologies -28.7% 43.7% 17.6% 1.6% 34.8% 54.9% 24.9% 15.0% -36.6% 25.9% 14.8% 2.0% 16.6% 30.2% 13.0% 3.9% -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 DIS vs. S&P 500 Total Annual Return Calendar 2008-2015 YTD DIS S&P 500
  • 5. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 5 JBL Advisors, LLC. as their primary investment decision-making tool. While we are not postulating multiple expansion as part of our investment themes, we do believe its double digit EPS growth quotient for the next three years, low leverage level (under 1.0x debt/EBITDA, probability of further dividend increases, and meaningful growth in FCF should all contribute to stability in its fundamentals and improving visibility for a positive impact to investor sentiment. The company has multiple momentum variables from its core businesses which we believe makes it just as attractive to momentum investors as well. It is not an undiscovered stock but that does not mean it is unlikely to outperform the S&P 500 over the next year or two. COMPANY DESCRIPTION The Walt Disney Company is one of the most dominant diversified entertainment conglomerates in the world. It is a leading producer and distributor of feature films and television series, operates premier theme parks around the world, is a major television broadcaster, controls two of the most highly respected brands and profitable cable networks in ESPN and The Disney Channel, and has successfully built new franchises with Marvel, Pixar and now Lucas Film resources. The company dominates the character- licensing business and the children’s consumer products marketplace with its unique stable of brands and franchises. The following exhibits visualize the growing importance of the higher contributions from its film and theme park businesses, both of which should be very healthy growers through F2017. Exhibit 4: Revenue by Segment - F2010, F2013, & F2016E Fiscal years end September Source: Company reports and JBL Advisors estimates Exhibit 5: Operating Income by Segment - F2010, F2013, & F2016E Fiscal years end September Source: Company reports and JBL Advisors estimates Cable Networks: Disney owns and operates many of the premier cable networks worldwide with ESPN and The Disney Channel as well as a number of other cable networks in the U.S. (Family Channel, Disney XD & Disney Junior) and a 50% equity stake in the AETN (Lifetime, History Channel, Biography, etc.). It has over 100 million households as subscribers to its domestic cable networks and close to 160 million international subscribers. The cable networks generate approximately 29.4% of the company’s revenues and 47.9% of Disney’s operating income with operating margins in the 42% region (F2015E). Broadcasting 15% Cable Networks 30% Theme Parks & Resorts 28% Studio Entertainment 18% Consumer Products 7% Interactive Media 2% FY2010 Broadcasting 13% Cable Networks 32% Theme Parks & Resorts 31% Studio Entertainment 13% Consumer Products 8% Interactive Media 2% FY2013 Broadcasting 12% Cable Networks 32% Theme Parks & Resorts 31% Studio Entertainment 14% Consumer Products 9% Interactive Media 3% FY2016E Broadcasting 9% Cable Networks 59% Theme Parks & Resorts 17% Studio Entertainment 9% Consumer Products 9% Interactive Media -3% FY2010 Broadcasting 7% Cable Networks 56% Theme Parks & Resorts 21% Studio Entertainment 6% Consumer Products 10% Interactive Media -1% FY2013 Broadcasting 6% Cable Networks 48% Theme Parks & Resorts 21% Studio Entertainment 12% Consumer Products 12% Interactive Media 2% FY2016E
  • 6. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 6 JBL Advisors, LLC. ESPN (and its suite of channels) is the major contributor to revenues and operating income in the segment. ESPN generates roughly $12.5 billion in revenues (almost $6 per subscriber per month for the ESPN suite of channels) and over $4.5 billion in operating income. Approximately 65% of ESPN’s revenues are derived from affiliate fees that are under long term contracts with high-single digit escalators in place over the next four to five years. The second largest contributor to the division’s revenues is The Disney Channel, which garners over $1.30 per subscriber per month in subscription fees from cable, satellite & telco carriers to come to 100 million households in the U.S. and close to 180 million internationally. The Disney Channel generates over $3.2 billion in revenues and over $1.2 billion in operating income despite the absence of traditional advertising revenue contributions. Complimentary platforms utilizing OTT and SVOD connects are becoming much more important and lucrative variables in the profitability equation, especially as ratings from traditional networks drift and-or erode. Mobile, tablet and other screens are gaining lots of attention as a growing source of revenues, but still fractional relative to the traditional portals. Subscriber level disconnects with MVPD’s have not seemed to be very consequential to the economics of the business so far. Dominating the discussion up to now have been the dollars paid by aggregators like Netflix and Amazon which have meaningfully surpassed the loss of ad dollars from ratings disruptions. True to form, that variable will not last for years to come! Recent strategy plans by TWX (with HBO) and CBS (with Showtime) and others (Starz & Sony) to go for direct connects with $10-$18 monthly subscriber fees will be another variation which Disney has yet to embrace or adopt. Suffice it to say that we expect Disney will be an important player in utilizing its content and programming on most platforms, maximizing its split and equity control worldwide. We do not believe Net Neutrality has particularly influential implications financially for Disney in the near term. The following graphs visualize the contributions of the cable networks to the company’s profitability. The segment should continue to see close to double digit growth annually over the next few years as affiliate fees maintain a high-single digit pace. Exhibit 6: Cable Networks Quarterly Revenue and Operating Income Profile, F2013-F2015E $3,538 $3,458 $3,884 $3,573 $3,759 $3,633 $3,942 $3,776 $4,166 $3,900 $4,200 $4,084 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Cable Networks Revenue in millions
  • 7. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 7 JBL Advisors, LLC. Fiscal years end September Source: Company Reports and JBL Advisors estimates Sports rights are a major revenue and cost variable for Disney’s Cable Network segment and frequently an important debate point about the segment and the company amongst investors. In simple terms (and there are few elements of sports rights contracts that are simple!), the early years of longer term renewals create the lowest margins (or modest operating income losses) and the back end typically have the best margins. Clearly ratings and ad rates are variable while subscriber fees have typically been precast for most platforms. MLB, NFL, NASCAR (not renewed), FIFA World Cup Soccer (a F2014 cost and revenue item) College football (SEC network, BCS bowls, etc.) are all influencing F2015 and beyond revenues and operating income, some compressing margins for the next two years, some enhancing margins. Live sports broadcasting CPM’s have been growing at almost 2x those of other television based platforms as ratings trends have outperformed. We would note that DIS seems to be both strategic and quantitatively driven in the acquisition of various domestic and international rights, learning from the successes and cautious when potentially unprofitable rights come up for bid. These dynamics should keep ESPN in a healthy competitive and financial position. Studio Entertainment: The Walt Disney Studios consists of Buena Vista, Pixar (acquired in 2006 for $7 billion), Marvel (acquired in 2010 for $4 billion) and LucasFilms (acquired in 2013 for $4 billion). Acquisitions of Pixar, Marvel and Lucas dramatically enhanced and replenished its creative resources and production expertise, especially in the young and tween male demographics. This has allowed the company to complement its young and tween female dominance in the consumer product, video, and park attractions $952 $1,724 $2,087 $1,284 $1,277 $1,974 $1,942 $1,274 $1,255 $2,050 $2,125 $1,420 -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Cable Networks Operating Income in millions 26.9% 49.9% 53.7% 35.9% 34.0% 54.3% 49.3% 33.7% 30.1% 52.6% 50.6% 34.8% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Cable Networks Operating Income Margin
  • 8. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 8 JBL Advisors, LLC. worldwide. The company changed the Chairman and CEO late in F2012, putting Alan Horn, former chief at Warner Bros to run all of its studio operations and his leadership has meaningfully enhanced the profitability of the studio. We think his creative relationships, production and financing expertise and distribution experience should continue to pay big dividends for Disney. Disney has strategically shifted its film production activities over the past two years. It is utilizing major film releases from Marvel, Pixar and LucasFilms to drive the majority of its annual film portfolio, supplemented by an animated-to-live action film productions (like Cinderella this past March) and selected other films (Tomorrowland) including sequels like Pirates 5 in the summer of 2017. High-end franchises, branded sequels, family-Disney-esque films as two-or-three tentpole films will fill their target of 12-14 films per year. The appeal is to a somewhat broader demographic than those produced a decade ago. It is also much clearer to see the cross- platform potential these films can experience thereby reducing financial risk and leveraging any success. Disney is likely to have a very robust summer box office season this year. We are projecting $1.175 billion in domestic box office this summer from Disney’s film releases domestically and those same films should gross 2-3x that in their international box office runs. While we place token value to market share stats (low –to-no correlation to profits!), Disney should take the top honors domestically and internationally this year. Exhibit 7: Disney Summer Film Comparisons 2015 vs 2014 Source: boxofficemojo, ERC, Reel Source, JBL Advisors estimates We believe with a new studio head (Alan Horn), significant tent-pole films on the release schedule over the next two years or so, and the addition of the Star Wars franchise from LucasFilms, profitability at the studio can exceed the $2.0 billion level from the $1.5 billion level (F2014) over the next three years. A key element to the valuation equation for Investors is that the financial success of the studio is broad-based, should be long-lived and not dominated by one film or franchise. The following table indicates the most highly anticipated films scheduled for release on the schedule through 2017. While dates may shift around, we think most of the films should be released near their current scheduled release. Est Film Genre Release DBOG Film Genre Release DBOG Date Mil. Date Mil. Avengers: Age of Ultron Action 5/1 $550 Million Dollar Arm Sports 5/16 $36.5 Tomorrowland Sci-Fi 5/22 $160 Maleficent Fantasy 5/30 $241.4 Inside Out Animated 6/19 $275 Planes, Fire & Rescue Animation 7/18 $59.2 Ant-Man Action 7/17 $190 Guardians Action 8/1 $332.9 100 Foot Journey Drama 8/8 $54.2 TOTAL $1,175 TOTAL $724.2 Disney Summer Film Comps 2015 vs 2014 2015 2014
  • 9. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 9 JBL Advisors, LLC. Exhibit 8: Disney Highly Anticipated Films, 2015-2017 Source: BoxOfficeMojo, ERC, Company Reports Exhibits 9 denotes the recovery in profitability the studio has experienced the past year or so. Most investors realize the significant contributions from Frozen which should contribute in excess of $1 billion in operating income over its first 24 months in release. One thing important for investors to remember is the timing of earnings from any particular film’s release is influenced by accounting rules (SOP 00-2) which require all distribution costs to be expensed as incurred (i.e. – the vast majority of those dollars are spent before a film’s release and oftentimes in the quarter or two preceding the generation of any meaningful revenues). We also note that the home video market remains in transition from a physical media product (BR, DVD) to a digitally delivered product which has yet to catch-up to the hard disk revenue generation of five to seven years ago. Countering a good portion of the shortfall in home video has been the phenomenal growth in international box office revenues, incremental contributions from 3D releases and growing EST revenues. Thankfully the significant declines in packaged media revenues has leveled off. We would also note that there still remains large population centers globally (especially in Russia, China, India and Latin America) that are becoming avid moviegoers as well as consumers of digital platforms. The following exhibits visualize the Studio segment’s revenue, operating income and margins. Calendar 2015 -2017 Films Talent Expected Release Date The Avengers: Age ofUltron Robert Downey Jr. 5/1/15 Tomorrowland George Clooney 5/22/15 Inside Out Pixar 6/19/15 Ant-Man Paul Rudd, Michael Douglas 7/17/15 Bridge ofSpies Tom Hanks 10/16/15 The Good Dinosaur Neil Patrick Harris 11/25/15 Star Wars: Episode VII J.J. Abrams 12/18/15 The Jungle Book Idris Elba 4/15/16 Captain America: Civil War Chris Evans, Robert Downey Jr. 5/6/16 Alice in Wonderland 2 Johnny Depp, Mia Wasikowski 5/27/16 Finding Dory Pixar 6/17/16 Pete's Dragon Bryce Dallas Howard 8/12/16 Doctor Strange Benedict Cumberbatch 11/4/16 Star Wars: Rogue One 12/16/16 Beauty and the Beast Emma Watson 3/17/17 Guardians ofthe Galaxy 2 Chris Pratt 5/5/17 Star Wars 8 5/27/17 Toy Story 4 Pixar 6/16/17 Pirates ofthe Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales Johnny Depp 7/7/17 Thor: Ragnorok 11/3/17
  • 10. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 10 JBL Advisors, LLC. Exhibit 9: Studio Entertainment Quarterly Revenue and Operating Income Profile, F2013-F2015E Fiscal years end September Source: Company Reports and JBL Advisors estimates $1,545 $1,338 $1,590 $1,506 $1,893 $1,800 $1,807 $1,778 $1,858 $1,850 $1,850 $1,842 -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Studio Entertainment Revenue in millions $234 $118 $201 $108 $409 $475 $411 $254 $544 $475 $425 $256 -300.0% -200.0% -100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 200.0% 300.0% 400.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Studio Entertainment Operating Income in millions 15.1% 8.8% 12.6% 7.2% 21.6% 26.4% 22.7% 14.3% 29.3% 25.7% 23.0% 13.9% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Studio Entertainment Operating Income Margin
  • 11. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 11 JBL Advisors, LLC. Broadcasting: Disney owns and operates the ABC Television Network and eight local market TV stations (NY, LA, Chicago, Philadelphia, SF, Houston, Raleigh-Durham and Fresno). Through broadcast carriage agreements, ABC is aired in over 240 television markets in the US and is available in 99% of the domestic television households. The company also owns 33% of the OTT digital content provider Hulu (along with Fox and NBC Universal). Broadcasting accounts for approximately 12% of the annual revenues and 6.1% of the operating income on F2015E. The key drivers of the Broadcasting segment are ratings for the ABC network and success of owned and distributed series at ABC Studios, as well as local and national advertising rates. The improvement in the economy over the past few years has helped push annual ad revenues up mid-to-high single digit annually, although ratings erosion has eaten away at a measurable portion of the ad rate increases. Enhancing the segment’s revenues and operating income the past few years has been retransmission fees that cable and satellite system operators are now paying to broadcast the ABC network. Disney has noted that they expect retransmission fees to be in the ~$500 million range annually by F2015. We believe that can grow-up towards the $750 million level over the next few years, especially as retrans 2.0 emerges at the end of the decade. The growth quotient should be powered as well by the Presidential and general election cycle in FY2016 and 1Q F2017. The following exhibits detail the revenue, operating income and margins of Disney’s Broadcast business. Exhibit 10: Broadcasting Quarterly Revenue and Operating Income Profile, F2013-F2015E $1,563 $1,499 $1,468 $1,373 $1,531 $1,501 $1,569 $1,441 $1,694 $1,550 $1,515 $1,491 -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Broadcasting Revenue in millions $262 $138 $213 $158 $178 $159 $354 $163 $240 $163 $300 $172 -60.0% -40.0% -20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Broadcasting Operating Income in millions
  • 12. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 12 JBL Advisors, LLC. Source: Company Reports and JBL Advisors estimates Theme Parks & Resorts: Disney owns (or operates) five destination resorts worldwide (US – two, Japan – 0%, Hong Kong (48% owned) & France (51% owned) with Shanghai (43% owned) expected to open in F2016), four cruise liners (and one island in the Caribbean!), over 38,000 hotel rooms and close to 3,550 Vacation Club accommodations as well as a wide and extensive variety of guest amenities (golf courses, restaurants, NASCAR race track, Disney Institute, MLB spring training facility, water parks, etc.) and raw land. The segment accounts for approximately 31.3% of the company’s revenues and 21% of its operating income. It is by far the most labor intensive and most sensitive to changes that affect retirement and medical benefits. The division has three important dynamics occurring presently that should help push OI growth into the double digit range for the next two or three years. First, the domestic economy stabilization has enabled a healthy flow through of pricing increase at the parks, complemented nicely by 3%-5% per-capita spending gains. Secondly, margin expansion has and should continue to be a meaningful contributor to OI growth through 2017. Third, it is in the middle of a five year, extensive capacity expansion program that should add an incremental $700-750 million or more to the segment’s operating income through 2017 (above F2014’s $2.66 billion). The dynamics of a stabilized economy, margin expansion and capacity expansion should help sustain a healthy premium valuation quotient for years to come. We believe this is one of the two key drivers to creating shareholder sentiment and value over the next few years. The opening of Shanghai Disney is likely to be a key catalyst in F2016 and earnings contributor (management fees and royalties which are likely to be In the $250 million range) in F2017 and beyond. Disney owns 43% of the equity of Shanghai Disney and will have invested about $2.3 billion in the park by opening day. 16.8% 9.2% 14.5% 11.5% 11.6% 10.6% 22.6% 11.3% 14.2% 10.5% 19.8% 11.5% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Broadcasting Operating Income Margin
  • 13. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 13 JBL Advisors, LLC. Exhibit 11: Theme Parks and Resorts Quarterly Revenue and Operating Income Profile, F2013-F2015E Fiscal years end September Source: Company Reports and JBL Advisors estimates $3,391 $3,302 $3,678 $3,716 $3,597 $3,562 $3,980 $3,960 $3,910 $3,775 $4,300 $4,265 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Parks & Resorts Revenue in millions $952 $1,724 $2,087 $1,284 $1,277 $1,974 $1,942 $1,274 $1,255 $2,050 $2,125 $1,420 -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Parks & Resorts Operating Income in millions 17.0% 11.6% 18.7% 15.4% 22.4% 12.8% 21.3% 17.3% 20.6% 13.2% 22.1% 17.5% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Parks & Resorts Operating Income Margin
  • 14. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 14 JBL Advisors, LLC. Consumer Products: Disney has been a worldwide leader in the licensing of consumer products based on its franchises, publishing, and a wide variety of merchandising with almost every major retailer worldwide. The segment was driven in large part historically by its Mickey & Minnie Mouse and Winnie the Pooh franchises and complemented by its successful animated film product and characters (Lion King, etc.). The past five years or so have propelled Disney even further with the addition of Pixar (Cars, Toy Story, etc.), Marvel super heroes (Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, Avengers, Ant-Man etc.), unprecedented commercial success of Frozen and soon the renewed shelf life of the Star Wars characters via LucasFilms in Christmas 2015. While it is growing towards the $4.4 billion revenue mark (about 8.5% of revenues) and exceeds $1.6 billion in operating income (close to 11.5% of the company’s expected $14.3 billion OI in F2015), the ability to monetize its growing group of characters and franchises in licensing and merchandising is providing a healthy contribution to the overall company. The beauty and value proposition for investors remains the broad base nature of the contributors to its Consumer Products business lines so that the evolution of annual characters does not compare unfavorably. The following exhibit delineate the financial dynamics of Disney’s Consumer Products business. We believe the enhanced operating margin profile is a result of the success of the Frozen franchise and anticipated incremental contributions of Star Wars. Exhibit 12: Consumer Products Quarterly Revenue and Operating Income Profile, F2013-F2015E $1,013 $763 $775 $1,004 $1,126 $885 $902 $1,072 $1,379 $975 $900 $1,146 -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Consumer Products Revenue in millions $346 $200 $219 $347 $430 $274 $273 $379 $626 $310 $300 $414 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Y-O-Y Consumer Products Operating Income in millions
  • 15. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 15 JBL Advisors, LLC. Fiscal years end September Source: Company Reports and JBL Advisors estimates Interactive Media: The Interactive Media segment designs, develops, publishes and distributes content though a portfolio of websites and other digital platforms. A major portion of the segments revenues come from interactive games that utilize multiple platforms (game consoles, PC, tablet and mobile devices, amongst others). Its introduction of the Infinity play line has sparked considerable interest in the cross-platform gaming of toys and digital media over the past two years. Disney has two new locomotives that are likely to be multi-year drivers of revenues in its Frozen and Star Wars franchises. The segment turned profitable in F2014 and should be a double digit EBIT grower over the next several years. MANAGEMENT Bob Iger – Chairman & CEO Mr. Iger joined Disney as part of the company’s acquisition of CapCities ABC in 1996. He has risen through the ranks at Disney and became President from 2000-2006 and CEO in 2005. Tom Staggs – COO – Recently promoted to the COO position after almost 5-years as Chairman of the Theme Parks and Resorts. Prior to that, he served as CFO for The Walt Disney Company from 1998 to 2010. Jay Rasulo – CFO Mr. Rasulo has served as CFO since 2010. Prior to his current role, Mr. Rasulo served as Chairman of Walt Disney Theme Parks and Resorts since 2000. FINANCIALS Disney’s balance sheet remains the most under levered in the media – entertainment industry, despite the capital intensive nature of its theme parks and resorts. It currently trades at approximately 12.5x our 2015E and 11.0x EV/EBITDA on F2016E, even when incorporating the debt of its minority owned Euro-Disney and Hong Kong Disneyland. We expect Disney to grow revenues at mid-to-high single digit pace over the next three years, especially as theme park expansion rolls out and matures, incremental affiliate and retransmission fees grow and the Consumer Product segment grows revenue dollars at a faster pace as the LucasFilm and Marvel businesses become bigger revenue generators via film and television projects. EBITDA is expected to grow at a mid-teen percentage pace and EPS should grow at a similar pace (or perhaps faster if share repurchases accelerate). We forecast percentage gains in the teens for EPS through F2017. 34.2% 26.2% 28.3% 34.6% 38.2% 31.0% 30.3% 35.4% 45.4% 31.8% 33.3% 36.1% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E Consumer Products Operating Income Margin
  • 16. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 16 JBL Advisors, LLC. VALUATION Disney has captured the premium valuation amongst the large cap entertainment equities over the past two decades because of the irreplaceable value of its brands, franchises, fundamentals (most years), and financials. It has typically traded at 10%-30% premiums to the group on an EV/EBITDA basis. We estimate EBITDA CAGR (F2013 – F2017) to be close to 12% and its EPS CAGR during the same period is estimated to be approximately 17%, levels that have been and should continue to be highly attractive to large cap growth investors. We also believe that its underlevered balance sheet (net debt/EBITDA at 0.7x based on F2015E), accelerating FCF growth, enhanced decapitalization, and dividend increases compliment the premium valuation Disney has consistently been afforded. Disney and each of the other major entertainment equities have seen healthy multiple expansion from depressed levels of three or four years ago as investor confidence and sentiment has grown as FCF has been redirected back to shareholders versus M&A activity that did not turn out to be as appreciated by the market. The following exhibits visually compare traditional valuation metrics for the large cap entertainment conglomerates. While Disney trades at a 20% or so premium to its best peers (FOXA and TWX), this has been true for some time given the quality of its earnings growth (not simply manufactured by decapitalization) and the consistency of its operating segments. We do not see Disney losing its premium P/E valuation given its superior growth to the S&P 500, quality of its reported earnings and its growth quotient over the next 3 fiscal years. Exhibit 13: Large Cap Entertainment Stocks 2016E P/E Valuations Source: ThomsonOne and JBL Advisors estimates 18.5x 14.1x 15.5x 9.9x 16.8x DIS FOXA TWX VIAB S&P 500 2016E P/E
  • 17. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 17 JBL Advisors, LLC. Exhibit 14: Large Cap Entertainment Stocks 2016E EV/EBITDA Valuations Source: ThomsonOne and JBL Advisors estimates Exhibit 15: Large Cap Entertainment Companies EPS Growth vs S&P 500, F2015E & F2016E Source: Company Reports, ThomsonOne, and JBL Advisors estimates Our valuation matrix for Disney will use DCF, EV/EBITDA, and Price/Earnings tools. We think a blended approach should give investors a fair cross-balance that captures the variety of investor sentiment variables typically employed to arrive at targeted valuations in healthy and volatile markets. 11.0x 11.8x 10.9x 8.8x DIS FOXA TWX VIAB EV/EBITDA F2016E 15.1% 1.1% 5.7% 6.6% 5.7% 16.5% 20.4% 18.0% 13.5% 6.5% DIS FOXA TWX VIAB S&P 500 Estimated EPS Growth 2015E EPS Growth 2016E EPS Growth
  • 18. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 18 JBL Advisors, LLC. As an added level of cross check and comfort and for those investors seeking the added quant base of EVA, Disney scores exceptionally well with a positive 1000 bps on the Economic Value Added (EVA) comparable (ROE-WACC). Our DCF model, using an 7.16% WACC, beta of 1.16, market risk premium of 5%, terminal growth rate of 3%, and an 12.0x terminal multiple yields a present value of $132.04 (please see our attached model to see the matrix of various terminal multiples). We believe more quantitatively driven investors weight the DCF tool very heavily in deriving their valuation target. Using an EV/EBITDA tool, with $17.730 billion in F2016E EBITDA, net debt (which includes Euro, Shanghai & Hong Kong theme park debt) of $11.466 billion, a current enterprise value of $197.3 billion, and using our estimated average share count of 1.65 billion for F2016 on a 12.0x multiple yields a price target of $122.00. Disney has traditionally been the only entertainment equity that has a large segment of institutional investors who heavily weight EPS and P/E ratio. Disney has traded at 1.0x to 1.5x the S&P 500P/E multiple over the past 10 years and the swings from high to low (or vice-versa) have often been driven by macro-financial/economic factors away from Disney’s own fundamentals. Its estimated mid-teen EPS growth over the next three years, with most of the growth coming from organic sources, does not make a 20% premium to the S&P 500 multiple unreasonable in our opinion. At 20.0x, our F2016 EPS estimate yields a price target of $115.80. Equally weighting each of the valuation tools (DCF based - $132.04; EV/EBITDA based- $122.00; P/E based - $115.80) leads us to our $124.00 price target over the next twelve months. We believe that mid-teen potential stock appreciation should position Disney to outperform the S&P 500 over the next year and hence our Outperform rating. INVESTMENT RISKS Investment risks for Disney’s equity will likely center around five variables away from the normal global financial – geopolitical – world health – capital markets issues that could impact all companies. The largest risk in our opinion revolves around ESPN’s ability to maintain carriage and ratings against the perception of competition in the live sports events business (against Fox Sports 1, NBC Sports, CBS Sports, etc.). Second, a change in the macro domestic economic outlook has historically compressed expectations for the Theme Park and Resorts businesses. Third, delays in major expansion projects internationally in the Theme Parks and Resorts segment would have an impact on investor sentiment. Fourth, contributions from international parks has been volatile at times, any major downside in earnings expectations could influence Disney’s earnings and stock price. Lastly, Disney has made a number of acquisitions the past few years which from time-to-time raise ROIC commentary that has been critical of its acquisitions.
  • 19. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 19 JBL Advisors, LLC. Exhibit 16: The Walt Disney Company Income Statement and Projections ($ in millions) The Walt Disney Company Earnings Model (Fiscal Year End September) (Millions, except per-share data) F2014 F2015 % F2014 F2015E % F2014 F2015E % F2014 F2015E % F2014 % F2015E % F2016E % F2017E % Revenue Broadcasting $1,531.0 $1,694.0 11% $1,501.0 $1,550.0 3% $1,569.0 $1,515.0 -3% $1,441.0 $1,491.0 3% $6,042.0 2% $6,250.0 3% $6,350.0 2% $6,575.0 4% Cable Networks 3,759.0 4,166.0 11% 3,633.0 3,850.0 6% 3,942.0 4,200.0 7% 3,776.0 4,134.0 9% 15,110.0 5% 16,350.0 8% 17,550.0 7% 18,850.0 7% Parks & Resorts 3,597.0 3,910.0 9% 3,562.0 3,775.0 6% 3,980.0 4,300.0 8% 3,960.0 4,265.0 8% 15,099.0 7% 16,250.0 8% 17,500.0 8% 18,750.0 7% Studio Entertainment 1,893.0 1,858.0 -2% 1,800.0 1,850.0 3% 1,807.0 1,850.0 2% 1,778.0 1,842.0 4% 7,278.0 22% 7,400.0 2% 8,000.0 8% 8,600.0 8% Consumer Products 1,126.0 1,379.0 22% 885.0 975.0 10% 902.0 900.0 0% 1,072.0 1,146.0 7% 3,985.0 12% 4,400.0 10% 4,800.0 9% 5,250.0 9% Interactive Media 403.0 384.0 -5% 268.0 280.0 4% 266.0 275.0 3% 362.0 386.0 7% 1,299.0 22% 1,325.0 2% 1,450.0 9% 1,575.0 9% Total Revenue 12,309.0 13,391.0 9% 11,649.0 12,280.0 5% 12,466.0 13,040.0 5% 12,389.0 13,264.0 7% 48,813.0 8% 51,975.0 6% 55,650.0 7% 59,600.0 7% Operating Income (EBIT) Broadcasting 178.0 240.0 35% 159.0 163.0 3% 354.0 300.0 -15% 163.0 172.0 6% 854.0 11% 875.0 2% 925.0 6% 1,000.0 8% Cable Networks 1,277.0 1,255.0 -2% 1,974.0 2,000.0 1% 1,942.0 2,125.0 9% 1,274.0 1,470.0 15% 6,467.0 7% 6,850.0 6% 7,700.0 12% 8,400.0 9% Parks & Resorts 671.0 805.0 20% 457.0 500.0 9% 848.0 950.0 12% 687.0 745.0 8% 2,663.0 20% 3,000.0 13% 3,275.0 9% 3,600.0 10% Studio Entertainment 409.0 544.0 33% 475.0 450.0 -5% 411.0 425.0 3% 254.0 281.0 11% 1,549.0 134% 1,700.0 10% 2,000.0 18% 2,150.0 8% Consumer Products 430.0 626.0 46% 274.0 310.0 13% 273.0 300.0 10% 379.0 414.0 9% 1,356.0 22% 1,650.0 22% 1,900.0 15% 2,000.0 5% Interactive Media 55.0 75.0 36% 14.0 25.0 79% 29.0 12.5 -57% 18.0 102.5 469% 116.0 215.0 250.0 275.0 Total Operating Income 3,020.0 3,545.0 17% 3,353.0 3,448.0 3% 3,857.0 4,112.5 7% 2,775.0 3,184.5 15% 13,005.0 21% 14,290.0 10% 16,050.0 12% 17,425.0 9% Corporate Expense (116.0) (125.0) (155.0) (160.0) (137.0) (155.0) (203.0) (150.0) (611.0) (590.0) (620.0) (650.0) Net Interest Expense & Other 49.0 (58.0) 62.0 (50.0) (50.0) (45.0) (38.0) (47.0) 23.0 (200.0) (175.0) (175.0) Restructuring & Impairment Losses (19.0) 0.0 (48.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (73.0) 0.0 (140.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other items 6.0 0.0 (37.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (0.0) 0.0 (31.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pre-Tax Income 2,940.0 3,362.0 14% 3,175.0 3,238.0 2% 3,670.0 3,912.5 7% 2,461.0 2,987.5 21% 12,246.0 27% 13,500.0 10% 15,255.0 13% 16,600.0 9% Income Taxes (1,036.0) (1,118.0) 33% (1,119.0) (1,100.9) 34% (1,251.0) (1,291.1) 33% (836.0) (945.0) 32% (4,242.0) 35% (4,455.0) 33% (5,034.2) 33% (5,478.0) 33% Net Income 1,904.0 2,244.0 18% 2,056.0 2,137.1 4% 2,419.0 2,621.4 8% 1,625.0 2,042.6 26% 8,004.0 21% 9,045.0 13% 10,220.9 13% 11,122.0 9% Acctg.Changes/Derivatives 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Non-Controlling interests (64.0) (62.0) (139.0) (190.0) (174.0) (210.0) (126.0) (138.0) (503.0) (600.0) (660.0) (726.0) Other 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Income to Disney $1,840.0 $2,182.0 19% $1,917.0 $1,947.1 2% $2,245.0 $2,411.4 7% $1,499.0 $1,904.6 27% $7,501.0 22% $8,445.0 13% $9,560.9 13% $10,396.0 9% Net EPS $1.03 $1.27 $1.08 $1.14 $1.28 $1.42 $0.86 $1.13 $4.26 $4.97 $5.79 $6.40 EPS from Continuing Ops $1.04 $1.27 22% $1.10 $1.14 4% $1.28 $1.42 11% $0.89 $1.13 27% $4.32 28% $4.97 15% $5.79 17% $6.40 10% Outstanding Shares Diluted 1,784 1,717 1,770 1,705 1,748 1,695 1,734 1,680 1,759 1,699 1,650 1,625 EBITDA 3,454.0 3,955.0 15% 3,789.0 3,288.0 -13% 4,320.0 3,957.5 -8% 2,895.0 4,634.5 60% 14,458.0 17% 15,835.0 10% 17,730.0 12% 19,425.0 10% Operating Margins Broadcasting 11.6% 14.2% 10.6% 10.5% 22.6% 19.8% 11.3% 11.5% 14.1% 14.0% 14.6% 15.2% Cable Networks 34.0% 30.1% 54.3% 51.9% 49.3% 50.6% 33.7% 35.6% 42.8% 41.9% 43.9% 44.6% Theme Parks & Resorts 18.7% 20.6% 12.8% 13.2% 21.3% 22.1% 17.3% 17.5% 17.6% 18.5% 18.7% 19.2% Studio Entertainment 21.6% 29.3% 26.4% 24.3% 22.7% 23.0% 14.3% 15.3% 21.3% 23.0% 25.0% 25.0% CP + Internet Media 31.7% 39.8% 25.0% 26.7% 25.9% 26.6% 27.7% 33.7% 27.9% 32.6% 34.4% 33.3% Operating 24.5% 26.5% 28.8% 28.1% 30.9% 31.5% 22.4% 24.0% 26.6% 27.5% 28.8% 29.2% EBITDA 28.1% 29.5% 32.5% 26.8% 34.7% 30.3% 23.4% 34.9% 29.6% 30.5% 31.9% 32.6% Tax Rate 35.2% 33.3% 35.2% 34.0% 34.1% 33.0% 34.0% 31.6% 34.6% 33.0% 33.0% 33.0% Source: JBL Advisors estimates and Disney corporate reports. Updated 4/15/15 JuneDecember March Year Ended SeptemberSeptember
  • 20. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 20 JBL Advisors, LLC. Exhibit 17: The Walt Disney Company Balance Sheet ($ in millions) The Walt Disney Company Balance Sheet $/mil 10/2/2010 10/1/2011 9/29/2012 9/28/2013 9/27/2014 12/27/2014 Assets Cash and cash equivalents $2,722.0 $3,185.0 $3,387.0 $3,931.0 $3,421.0 $5,077.0 Receivables 5,784.0 6,182.0 6,540.0 6,967.0 7,822.0 8,591.0 Inventories 1,442.0 1,595.0 1,537.0 1,487.0 1,574.0 1,476.0 Television costs & advances 678.0 674.0 676.0 634.0 1,061.0 712.0 Deferred income taxes 1,018.0 1,487.0 765.0 485.0 497.0 452.0 Other assets 581.0 634.0 804.0 605.0 801.0 932.0 Total Current Assets 12,225 13,757 13,709 14,109 15,176 17,240 Film and television costs 4,773.0 4,357.0 4,541.0 4,783.0 5,325.0 5,672.0 Investments 2,513.0 2,435.0 2,723.0 2,849.0 2,696.0 2,642.0 Theme parks, resorts and other property, net 14,502.0 15,943.0 17,895.0 18,733.0 18,541.0 18,279.0 Projects in progress and land 3,304.0 3,752.0 3,617.0 3,647.0 4,791.0 5,381.0 Intangible assets, net 5,081.0 5,121.0 5,015.0 7,370.0 7,434.0 7,369.0 Goodwill, net 24,100.0 24,145.0 25,110.0 27,324.0 27,881.0 27,849.0 Other assets 2,708 2,614 2,288 2,426 2,342 2,603 Total Assets $69,206 $72,124 $74,898 $81,241 $84,186 $87,035 Liabilities And Shareholders' Equity Accounts,taxes payable,accrued liabilities $6,109 $6,362 $6,393 $6,803 $7,595 $9,069 Current borrowings 2,350 3,055 3,614 1,512 2,164 4,376 Unearned royalty and other advances 2,541 2,671 2,806 3,389 3,533 3,359 Total Current Liabilities 11,000 12,088 12,813 11,704 13,292 16,804 Long-term borrowings 10,130 10,922 10,697 12,776 12,676 12,167 Deferred income taxes 2,630 2,866 2,251 4,050 4,098 4,414 Other long-term liabilities 6,104 6,795 7,179 4,561 5,942 5,857 Total Liabilities 29,864 32,671 32,940 33,091 36,008 39,242 Common stock 28,736 30,296 31,731 33,440 34,301 34,488 Retained earnings 34,327 38,375 42,965 47,758 53,734 53,969 Cumulative translation and other adjustments (1,881) (2,630) (3,266) (1,187) (1,968) (1,880) Treasury shares, at cost (23,663) (28,656) (31,671) (34,582) (41,109) (42,412) Non-controlling interest 1,823 2,068 2,199 2,721 3,220 3,628 Shareholders' Equity 39,342 39,453 41,958 48,150 48,178 47,793 Liabilities And Shareholders' Equity $69,206 $72,124 $74,898 $81,241 $84,186 $87,035 Debt $12,480 $13,977 $14,311 $14,288 $14,840 $16,543 Cash (2,722) (3,185) (3,387) (3,931) (3,421) (5,077) Net debt $9,758 $10,792 $10,924 $10,357 $11,419 $11,466 Source: JBL Advisors estimates and Disney corporate reports.
  • 21. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 21 JBL Advisors, LLC. Exhibit 18: The Walt Disney Company Free Cash Flow Model ($ in millions) The Walt Disney Company Simplified Free Cash Flow Analysis (Millions, except per share amounts) F2010 F2011 F2012 F2013 F2014 F2015E F2016E F2017E Net Income $4,313 $4,807 $5,682 $6,136 $7,501 $8,445 $9,561 $10,396 Plus: D&A 1,713 1,841 1,987 2,192 2,064 2,135 2,300 2,300 After-Tax Cash Flow 6,026 6,648 7,669 8,328 9,565 10,580 11,861 12,696 Less: CAPEX (2,110) (3,559) (3,785) (2,796) (3,311) (3,950) (4,100) (3,000) Change in Net Working Capital (266) (1,139) (1,091) 103 (272) (100) (100) (100) Other (Loss) 818 1,485 58 1,227 1,042 500 500 500 After-Tax Free Cash Flow 4,468 3,435 2,851 6,862 7,024 7,030 8,161 10,096 Fully diluted shares out 1,948 1,909 1,818 1,813 1,759 1,699 1,650 1,625 Free Cash Flow Per Share $2.29 $1.80 $1.57 $3.78 $3.99 $4.14 $4.95 $6.21 Dividends $0.35 $0.40 $0.60 $0.75 $0.86 $1.15 $1.30 $1.45 Source: JBL Advisors estimates and Disney corporate reports.
  • 22. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 22 JBL Advisors, LLC. Exhibit 19: The Walt Disney Company Discounted Cash Flow Model ($ in millions) The Walt Disney Company Discounted Cash Flow Model (Millions, except per-share data) F2012 F2013 F2014E F2015E F2016E F2017E F2018E F2019E Debt Forecast Amount EBITDA $11,477 $12,385 $14,458 $15,835 $17,730 $19,425 $21,282 $23,317 LT debt + current portion 16,543$ Yr/Yr % 12.4% 7.9% 16.7% 9.5% 12.0% 9.6% 9.6% 9.6% Current Cash (5,077) Less: Depr. & amort. 1,987 2,192 2,064 2,135 2,300 2,650 2,650 2,650 Net Debt 11,466$ EBIT $9,490 $10,193 $12,394 $13,700 $15,430 $16,775 $18,632 $20,667 Less: Tax @ Corp Rate 3,132 3,364 4,090 4,521 5,092 5,536 6,149 6,820 Est Annual Net Interest. Expense 200.0$ Plus: Depr. & amort. 1,987 2,192 2,064 2,135 2,300 2,650 2,650 2,650 Est Net Cost of Debt 2.3% Less: CapX 3,785 2,796 3,311 (3,950) (4,100) (3,000) (2,750) (2,750) Unlevered free cash flow 4,560 6,225 7,057 15,264 16,738 16,889 17,883 19,247 Discount periods 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 WACC Calculation Discounted UFCF @ WACC -1 14,377 14,850 14,114 14,945 15,150 Beta 1.16 Discounted UFCF @ WACC 14,243 14,574 13,723 14,530 14,592 Risk-free rate (10 yr treasuries) 1.86% Discounted UFCF @ WACC+1 14,111 14,306 13,345 14,131 14,060 Market risk premium 5.00% Cost of equity (CAPM) 7.66% Terminal Value-F2020E EBITDA 10.0x $240,161 Stock Price @04/15/15 $107.15 11.0x 264,177 Market value of equity 188,477 12.0x 288,193 Book debt 16,543 13.0x 312,210 Weighted average cost of debt 2.26% Corporate tax rate 33.0% Terminal Value Multiple @ WACC-1 Terminal Value Multiple @ WACC Terminal Value Multiple @ WACC+1 MV/(MV+debt) 91.9% 10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x 10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x 10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x Debt/(MV+debt) 8.1% Sum of discounted FCF 73,436 73,436 73,436 73,436 71,662 71,662 71,662 71,662 69,953 69,953 69,953 69,953 PV of terminal value 189,046 207,951 226,856 245,760 182,086 200,295 218,504 236,712 175,444 192,988 210,533 228,077 WACC 7.16% PV Enterprise Value 262,482 281,387 300,292 319,196 253,748 271,957 290,166 308,374 245,397 262,941 280,485 298,030 Assumptions Less: debt 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 16,543 Terminal growth rate 3.0% Plus: cash 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 5,077 Discount back to F2015E PV Equity 251,016 269,921 288,826 307,730 242,282 260,491 278,700 296,908 233,931 251,475 269,019 286,564 WACC 7.2% EBIT CAGR F2009 - F2019E 18.6% Shares outstanding 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 1,759 Corporate tax rate 33.0% Calculated one-year share price $142.70 $153.45 $164.20 $174.95 $137.74 $148.09 $158.44 $168.79 $132.99 $142.96 $152.94 $162.91 Public market discount 20.0% Value at public discount (20%) $118.92 $127.88 $136.83 $145.79 $114.78 $123.41 $132.04 $140.66 $110.83 $119.14 $127.45 $135.76 Source: JBL Advisors estimates and Disney corporate reports. 8.3x 9.0x 9.4x 9.4x 9.1x 11.8x 12.2x 12.4x 6.5x 5.1x 7.4x 6.3x 6.9x 7.6x 9.3x 10.5x 7.4x 7.0x 8.4x 7.8x 8.0x 9.7x 10.8x 11.5x 3.0x 4.0x 5.0x 6.0x 7.0x 8.0x 9.0x 10.0x 11.0x 12.0x 13.0x 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15E EV/EBITDA Trading Range 14E (-) = current price
  • 23. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 23 JBL Advisors, LLC. Companies mentioned in this report: Amazon (AMZN - $385.30); AMC Entertainment (AMC - $33.91); Carmike Cinemas (CKEC - $31.88); Cinemark (CNK - $43.04); Cineplex (CGX.TO - C$48.14); Comcast (CMCSA - $59.91); DreamWorks Animation (DWA - $25.77); 21st Century Fox (FOXA - $34.15); IMAX (IMAX - $35.86); JP Morgan (JPM - $ 64.21); Lions Gate (LGF - $31.01); National CineMedia (NCMI - $15.83); Netflix (NFLX - $535.71); Real D (RLD - $12.25); Regal Entertainment (RGC - $22.25); Sony (SNE- $31.75); Time Warner (TWX - $85.00); Viacom (VIAB - $70.64). Prices as of 4/15/15. JBL Advisors Rating System: OUTPERFORM – We estimate the stock will outperform the S&P 500 in total return by 15% over the following 12-month period. MARKET PERFORM – We estimate the stock will generate a total return that is within 5% (above or below) the S&P 500. UNDERPERFORM - We estimate the stock will underperform the S&P 500 by 10% over the following 12-month period. SHORT – We estimate the stock will decline more than 20% in the following 12-months.
  • 24. DIS: The Walt Disney Company – Coverage Initiation REFER TO IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER INFORMATION ON THE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT 24 JBL Advisors, LLC. IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION - DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES I, Jeffrey Logsdon, author of this research report, hereby certify that that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities and issuers. No part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. JBL Advisors, LLC. is a Registered Investment Advisor. JBL Advisors, LLC. does not manage individual investment or trading accounts nor does it maintain custody of assets or securities of accounts of any individual. Information, opinions, or recommendations contained in this report are submitted solely for advisory and information purposes. While the information has been taken from sources believed reliable, we do not represent that it is accurate, complete, or otherwise. The opinions expressed are those of the analyst and are subject to change without notice. The report or study is not intended to be construed as an offering or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned or discussed. The investments referred to may not be suitable for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of recipients and should not be relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Neither JBL Advisors, LLC. nor other associated persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, punitive, or exemplary damages, including but not limited to loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this material. This material is for the use of the intended recipients only. Distribution of this document is intended solely for institutional investors as defined in Rule 15a-6 under the U.S. Securities Act of 1934. All persons that receive this document by their acceptance thereof represent and agree that they are a major institutional investor and understand the risks involved in executing transactions in securities. JBL Advisors, LLC. is not a market maker in debt or equity securities and does not sell securities to or buy securities from customers on a principal basis. JBL Advisors, LLC. does not have an investment banking, advisory, fee-for service or other compensated business relationship with the companies mentioned in this report, and was not a manager or co-manager of any offering for any of the companies at any time in the past 3 years. Analysts, associates and members of their households may from time to time maintain a financial interest in the securities of companies in the analyst’s area of coverage or mentioned in its research publications, subject to compliance with applicable regulations. A family member of the analyst maintains an investment in Regal Entertainment Group, Inc. of less than $100,000. JBL Advisors, LLC. prohibits analysts and associates from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company that the firm provides research coverage. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose by another person without prior consent from JBL Advisors. Should you need additional information please contact: Laurie A. Logsdon, CFA (laurie@jbladvisors.com) JBL Advisors, LLC 4000 Barranca Parkway. Suite 250 Irvine, California 92604 www.jbladvisors.com