CMHC Hamilton Burlington 2020 Housing Outlook presentation

1. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
2020 Hamilton-Burlington
Housing Outlook

2. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 2
How Accurate Was CMHC’s 2019 Resale Market Forecast?
Source: CMHC forecast, CREA
Hamilton-Burlington
MLS® Sales
Hamilton-Burlington
Average MLS® Price
13,600 (+18%)High Forecast
Low Forecast 12,800 (+11%) $585,000 (+4%)
$620,000 (+10%)
Actual
(2019 YTD)
+10% +5%

3. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 3
How Did Affordability Improve For Hamilton-Burlington Buyers?
2019 Average Year-over-year Change
Single-detached
Individual Monthly Earnings
+$135
+$165
*Based on median MLS® price, 20% down payment, 25 year amortization and the Bank of Canada qualifying rate for a 5-year mortgage
Source: CREA, Bank of Canada, Statistics Canada and calculations by CMHC
+$122
+$111
Townhome
Apartment
Mortgage Qualifying Payment*

4. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 4
High Full-time Employment Will Keep MLS® Sales Elevated
Has Demand From GTA Buyers Increased?
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board, CMHC calculations
Median Price of a Single-detached Home
(Average Year-over-year Change)
Oakville Mississauga
2019 First Half
2019 Second Half
1% 2%
6%2%
Milton
3%
5%

5. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 5
High Full-time Employment Will Keep MLS® Sales Elevated
How Did Demand Shift Along the Price Spectrum?
Hamilton-Burlington YTD Sales by Price Range
(Year-over-year change)
Under
$350,000
$350,000 -
$499,999
$500,000 -
$599,999
$600,000 -
$699,999
$700,000 -
$799,999
$800,000
and over
Source: Realtors® Association of Hamilton-Burlington, CMHC calculations
1,318
(-385)
2,244
(+545)
1,397
(+175)
964
(+196)
1,694
(+354)
3,573
(+184)

6. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 6
Higher Income Required to Purchase Average Resale Home
Where Was the Highest and Lowest Detached Home Price Growth?
Median YTD Price of a Single-Detached Home
(Year-over-year Change)
Top 3 Areas Bottom 3 Areas
Hamilton Centre 21:
$311,000 (+13%)
Hamilton Centre 20:
$365,000 (+11%)
Hamilton East 23:
$360,000 (+11%)
Ancaster:
$802,000 (+2%)
Dundas:
$640,000 (+0%)
Burlington 35:
$875,000 (+0%)
Source: Realtors® Association of Hamilton-Burlington, CMHC calculations

7. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 7
Higher Income Required to Purchase Average Resale Home
What Areas Had the Strongest and Weakest Townhome Price Growth?
Median YTD Price of a Townhome
(Year-over-year Change)
Top 3 Areas Bottom 3 Areas
Grimsby:
$480,000 (+11%)
Burlington 35:
$627,000 (+6%)
Hamilton Mountain:
$420,000 (+6%)
Stoney Creek:
$520,000 (+4%)
Glanbrook:
$470,000 (+4%)
Ancaster:
$510,000 (+2%)
Source: Realtors® Association of Hamilton-Burlington, CMHC calculations

8. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 8
Higher Income Required to Purchase Average Resale Home
What Areas Had the Highest and Lowest Apartment Price Growth?
Median YTD Price of an Apartment
(Year-over-year Change)
Top 3 Areas Bottom 3 Areas
Hamilton Centre:
$280,000 (+23%)
Hamilton East:
$225,000 (+14%)
Hamilton West:
$319,000 (+7%)
Burlington 35:
$387,000 (+4%)
Stoney Creek:
$365,000 (+4%)
Burlington 31:
$500,000 (+0%)
Source: Realtors® Association of Hamilton-Burlington, CMHC calculations

9. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 9
How Did These Factors Affect Your 2020 Resale Market Forecast?
Source: CMHC forecast

10. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 10
How Accurate Was CMHC’s 2019 Housing Starts Forecast?
Source: CMHC
Hamilton-Burlington Housing Starts
3,150 (-13%)High Forecast
Low Forecast 2,650 (-26%)
Actual
(2019 YTD)
-16%

11. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 11
Will Housing Starts Rebound Next Year?
Pre-construction Condominium Apartments Projects
(More than 75% Sold)
1,803737
Source: Altus
Burlington Hamilton-Grimsby
Number
of Projects
Number
of Units
4 7

12. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 12
Are Housing Starts Going to Return to 2018 Levels?
Source: CMHC forecast

13. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 13
Does CMHC Have Other Upcoming or Recently Released Reports?
Housing Market Insights (November 2019)
GO Train Expansion - The Impact on House Prices
in Hamilton-Niagara
Housing Market Assessment (November 2019)
Rental Market Report (January 2020)
Consult our “Housing Market Information Portal”
www.cmhc.ca/en/hoficlincl/homain/index.cfm

14. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION 14
Higher Income Required to Purchase Average Resale Home
Thank You
Anthony Passarelli
Senior Analyst
Direct Line (416) 250-3234
apassare@cmhc.ca