Perspectives on Latvia's Future Transition
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The document discusses perspectives on the future for Latvia from a futurist analyst. It describes major global trends including the economic rise of emerging markets like BRICS countries, growing urbanization and middle classes in Asia and Africa, and challenges facing the EU like population decline and aging. Specific challenges and opportunities for Latvia are also examined, including developing high-value industries and finding a niche in globalized markets as a small country. The future is framed as a "Great Transition" period of significant global economic shifts over the coming decades.
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Perspectives on Latvia's Future Transition
- 2. THE GREAT TRANSITION: PERSPECTIVES ON THE FUTURE FOR LATVIA James Bellini Futurologist Analyst, Writer and Presenter
- 3. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf Perspectives On The Future For Latvia Dr James Bellini THE WORLD OF TOMORROW
- 4. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf THE FUTURE: COMIC BOOK VIEW
- 5. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf BRAIN MAP OF THE FUTURIST sociology History geography Arts science Key knowledge areas Geo-politics psychology technology Energy statistics
- 6. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf „The Future‟ is about ways of seeing the present…‟
- 7. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf FACTS OF THE FUTURE Up to 2035 the global infrastructure spend will exceed $50 trillion
- 8. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf 2025: FUTURE CHALLENGES
- 9. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf THE WORLD OF TOMORROW The Great Transition Perspectives On Latvia Europe‟s Macro-challenges EU: The Near Horizon Successful Neighbours Latvia: Future Options
- 10. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf SCENARIO 2025: THE GREAT TRANSITION The coming years will see a fundamental shift in global economic realities from ‘old’ to ‘emerging’ regions – the biggest change since the Industrial Revolution This shift will bring a worldwide urban explosion, a new two billion-plus middle class, a changing map of global trade, powerful new currencies and the biggest infrastructure boom in generations
- 11. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf GLOBAL SHIFT: BRICS AND BEYOND • 25 per cent of world land area • 40 per cent of world population • Combined GDP of $20 trillion
- 12. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf BRICS: CATCHING UP $trillion Combined GDP
- 13. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf FUTURE MASS MARKETS Growth of India‟s Middle Class millions „By 2025 China will have a middle class of about 520 million people‟ McKinsey
- 14. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf SCENARIO 2025: THE NEXT ELEVEN? Bangladesh Egypt Indonesia “high potential of becoming Iran world‟s largest economies Mexico in 21st century alongside Nigeria BRICs” Pakistan Goldman Sachs Philippines South Korea Turkey Vietnam
- 15. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf SCENARIO 2030: THE AFRICAN DECADE? Traditional Development Model
- 16. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf OR NORCS? • Canada • Alaska • Greenland • Norway • Sweden • Iceland • Finland • Russia • [Latvia? ...]
- 17. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf NEW SOUTHERN SILK ROAD?
- 18. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf FUTURE URBAN GIANTS Tomorrow‟s Mega-Cities
- 19. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf E-WORLD 2025: FUTURE FACTS
- 20. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf GLOBAL SHIFT: OLD WORLD AGENDA? Target urban growth clusters Anticipate moments of explosive growth Local relevance and global scale Redeploy resources for long term Innovate across the price spectrum
- 21. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf GLOBAL SHIFT: OLD WORLD AGENDA? Develop high visibility / trusted brands Control route to market Organise today for markets of tomorrow Sharpen drive for e-world talent Lock in support of key stakeholders
- 22. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf 2020 TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS Internet of Things Cloud computing RFID / NFC / Rectenna ... Wireless, wireless, wireless ... Inno-communities Nano-everything Real-time analytics Centre-less organisations Free agent work culture 2000 2020
- 23. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf FUTURE CONNECTED WORLD
- 24. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf The EU Context And Other Thoughts PERSPECTIVES ON LATVIA
- 25. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf EUROPE’S POPULATION CHALLENGE Emerging Regions Developed Regions
- 26. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf GROWING SMALLER Population Decline By 2030 [millions]
- 27. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf EUROPE’S AGEING FUTURE
- 28. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf AGEING EUROPE 70% E-world Old world 1975 2030 50% Working Age Population as % of Total Active Ageing Future?
- 29. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf BIPOLAR GLOBAL ECONOMY GDP Growth % Change 6 5 4 3 2012 2 2013 1 0 Adv Econ E-world IMF Global Economic Outlook October 2012
- 30. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf EUROZONE: NEAR TERM VIEW GDP Growth % Change 9 8 7 6 5 2012 2013 4 3 2 1 0 -1 Euro Area China IMF Global Economic Outlook October 2012
- 31. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf POLAND: RISING STAR IMF Projections Poland GDP % Annual Change Dev. World GDP % Annual Change
- 32. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf TURKEY: WINNING PAST 2010 Real GDP Growth % Source: IMF
- 33. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf TURKEY: WINNING FUTURE? Average annual GDP growth 2011 – 2017 [OECD Forecast]
- 34. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf UNDERSTANDING LATVIA
- 35. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf BEFORE THE CRISIS % GDP Growth 2005 - 2007
- 36. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf LATVIA: OUTLOOK GOOD % % GDP growth at constant 6 prices 5 4 3 2 1 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 World Economic Outlook IMF October 2012
- 37. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf LATVIA: THE WAY AHEAD? ‘Three key challenges face the Baltic countries as they return to growth and—for Latvia and Lithuania—prepare to join the euro: Deliver on recovery programme exit strategy Implement reforms geared to fixed exchange rate Strengthen social cohesion: income inequality in Baltics is among highest in Europe’ Christine Lagarde Riga 5 June 2012
- 38. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf SIZE-NEUTRAL FUTURE
- 39. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf NEW ZEALAND: A SMALL CLEVER COUNTRY?
- 40. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf CASE STUDY: NEW ZEALAND Pop Ind Serv Agr Income Per Capita: $28,000
- 41. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf CASE STUDY: LATVIA Pop Ind Serv Income per capita: Agr $15,900
- 42. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf CASE STUDY: ‘MIDDLEWEIGHT’ BILBAO -- FIRST NOBEL CITY World City Prize: Jury’s Citation
- 43. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf HANSEATIC FUTURE? ‘EUSBSR shapes the region into a regional cooperation model for the whole EU. The strategy aims to save the sea, connect the region and increase prosperity’
- 44. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf A LATVIAN VIEW ‘Value chains are changing. The 21st century real-time economy, 24x7 stock exchanges and banking, just in time supply and delivery, minimizing stocks, individual products instead of mass production are based on intensive use of communications, Internet-based principles and technologies Even a small country can find its niche in today’s globalised market’ Prof Edvins Karnitis University of Latvia [former adviser Latvian PM]
- 45. SMS jautājumi – LTC un JAUTĀJUMU sūtiet uz 157 Tvītiem – #LTC_conf Perspectives On The Future For Latvia Dr James Bellini THE WORLD OF TOMORROW
Notas do Editor
- Futurology should not be about life on off-world colonies in the 23rd century, or about man-made eyes and brain transplants in the 22nd.To be of value to business decision-makers we must keep our minds on the ‘relevant’ future – on the major trends shaping the five, ten and fifteen years ahead.
- No area of knowledge should be ignored. As an ‘historian of the future’, however, I am increasingly realising that the future is more about ‘sociology’ – about how people and organisations will behave and conduct themselves in the years ahead.
- As an ‘historian of the future’ I spend a lot of time drawing on the lessons of the past to inform me about what is happening today and how things might pan out in years to come. One conclusion: nothing is ever really ‘new’. We may think the digital world of today is unique – but in many ways we have lived through similar experiences in past generations. Although some things about modern life have no precedent. A good start point is to have a very clear view of the realities of today. Many of these realities can be quite surprising.
- We are being carried along by what I describe as The Great Transition – the biggest shift in global economic realities since the Industrial Revolution A matrix of convergent ‘tipping points’ that is re-shaping our worldThe shift in economic power to the emerging world - the e-World – not just to the giant BRICs nations but also to a second cohort of smaller economies like Indonesia, Vietnam, Mexico and South AfricaEmerging global demographic realities a) a population explosion over coming decades where 95 % of future world population growth will be in this e-World b) rapidly ageing population profiles in older economies [EU, Japan etc] but also in high-growth countries like China with associated challenges.The e-World will have to transform its built environment if it is to prosper. Estimates of the cost of massive new infrastructure projects over the next 25 years exceed $50 trillion – roughly equal to the entire global economy today.As a result of all these trends, new patterns of global trade, investment and financial flows, new e-World brands coming into the marketplace ...Meanwhile, ‘old economic bloc’ of EU, Japan etc will see falling populations, generally lower economic growth compared to long-term trend ...
- The major demographic trend in a developed society like the UK – an ageing population – is bound to have significant impact on our built environment and therefore on the look and feel of everyday life. In the UK today the fastest-growing age group is the over-90s. The number of UK citizens over 50 now exceeds the number of school age children. What does such a trend imply for, say, our schools, homes and hospitals, which still reflect earlier demographic realities? At the same time people are choosing new ways of living – the fastest-growing household type in the UK today is the single person household ... the nuclear family is in marked decline ...Such trends indicate the steady demise of the semi-detached home and the growth of high-density housing, coupled with a greater search for ‘community’ ... The issue: what will shape the ‘community’ in a digital, post-family age?