This presentation was provided to the 2008 Modeling and Simulation Leadership Summit in conjunction with the Congressional Modeling and Simulation Caucus to provide participants with an understanding of M&S applications and challenges in the fields of Finance and Economics. I was part of the panel on “M&S Applications in Infrastructure, Security and Education” where we discussed the applications of M&S and keys to the successful development of M&S in the future through supporting educational initiatives. http://proceedings.ndia.org/81C0/MSResolution.pdf http://proceedings.ndia.org/81C0/4_Boyer_Briefing.pdf

1. Modeling & Simulation:
Finance & Economics
Larry Boyer
Principal Economist, Freddie Mac
M&S Caucus Leadership Summit
February 11, 2008

2. 1
Topics
M&S Use
How M&S Enhances Progress
Key Challenges
Key Elements for Education
Suggestions for Furthering Progress

3. 2
M&S Use
Pricing and Costing
Capital
Risk Management
Scenario Analysis (What if?)
Product Design
Research and Development

4. 3
How M&S Enhances Progress
Increase ability to reduce and manage risk
Increase product offerings and reduce costs
to benefit consumers
Increased the ability of corporations and
policy makers to anticipate economic
changes and adjust

5. 4
Key Challenges
Layering Models and Judgment
Past vs. Future
Shocks (Oil, Terrorism, etc.)
Human Intervention (policy)
Faster, Cheaper, Better Technology
Complexity of Interactions

6. 5
Modeling Tension
Judgment Statistical Model
•Uses “intangibles”
•Cognitive Awareness
•Experience
•Hidden biases
•Imprecise
•Use current market info
•Measurable
•Future is similar to past
•Dispassionate
•Discover hidden relationships
•Data reporting lag
•Measurement error
•Statistical biases

7. 6
Annual Market Rent Growth 1980-1999
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Year
RentGrowth(%)
Kansas City
San Jose
Kansas City 7.1 8.6 7.9 10.7 11.8 10 5.2 1.2 -0.7 -0.9 1.2 2.1 1.8 4.5 3 4.4 7 2.6 3.3 4.2
San Jose 9.2 6.4 11 13.9 8.2 3.2 1.8 4.1 4.9 3.8 1.4 2.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 13.6 16 6.5 6.4 7.8
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Example Part 1
What is the expected rent growth going forward 2000–2007?
Will these 2 metro areas perform similarly?
Source: Reis Services, LLC

8. 7
Example Part 2
San Jose became more volatile. Was it possible to foresee this
change? Would an econometric model have successfully forecast?
Annual Market Rent Growth 1980-2007
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Year
RentGrowth(%)
Kansas City
San Jose
Kansas City 7.1 8.6 7.9 10.7 11.8 10 5.2 1.2 -0.7 -0.9 1.2 2.1 1.8 4.5 3 4.4 7 2.6 3.3 4.2 4.4 2.3 0.9 1.1 0.6 0 2 2.7
San Jose 9.2 6.4 11 13.9 8.2 3.2 1.8 4.1 4.9 3.8 1.4 2.8 1.3 1.9 1.9 13.6 16 6.5 6.4 7.8 34.8 -15.8 -10.5 -8.2 -1.6 3.2 8 8.2
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Source: Reis Services, LLC

9. 8
Key Elements for Education
Improve Math and Science Education from pre-K
through high school
Add more sophisticated, applied simulation study
to undergraduate coursework
Create interdisciplinary coursework, with applied
research and problem solving as the core work
Develop students to have both business and
mathematical acumen

10. 9
Suggestions for Furthering Progress
Bring Theory and Practice together more
More Interdisciplinary Cooperation
Related Disciplines (Economics & Finance)
Other Disciplines (Science & Engineer & Finance)
Research to address Key Challenges
Past vs. Future
Shocks
Layering Models & Judgment