ISOJ 2007

1. 1
March 15, 2007:
NEW YORK (AP) - Advertising revenues at U.S. newspapers edged down 0.3 percent last year
as gains in online revenues weren't enough to compensate for a worsening
downturn in print ads.
… Overall newspaper classified advertising fell 7.1 percent in the quarter, with recruitment
dropping 13.7 percent, automotive advertising falling 11 percent and real estate falling 2.3
percent. All other classified ads edged up 0.9 percent.
A recent “American Advertising Federation” survey also found that newspapers (cited by
51.4%) are in the most need of innovation if they want to remain competitive, followed by
network television (34.5%) and radio (33.8%)
“Aspiring press lords should be careful, however: There’s no rule that says a
newspaper’s revenues can’t fall below its expenses and that losses can’t mushroom.”
“And fundamentals are definitely eroding in the newspaper industry, a trend that has caused
the profits of our Buffalo News to decline. The skid will almost certainly continue.”
Warren Buffett, quoted from a letter to shareholders March 1st

2. 2
“The good news for traditional media organizations is that they are finally recognizing the
challenges that have chipped away at the industry for years. The bad news is that they have
few good answers for how to change their business model.”
Tom Rosenstiel, project director & lead author of the study 4th
Edition of “State of the News
Media” from Project for Excellence in Journalism
“This is a time of wrenching change and chaos. All of our assumptions about newspapers are
going to be changed. The format, the business model, the organization of newspapers have
outlived their usefulness.”
Barry Parr, media analyst at Jupiter Research,
Quoted at NewYorkTimes.com March 26

3. 3
Circulation losses
Source: Editor and Publisher Yearbook data
Much print pricing is based on circulation

4. 4
Jobs lost
Source: American Society of Newspaper Editors, Newsroom Employment Census, 2006
From 2000 through 2005: 2,900 newsroom jobs have been eliminated

5. 5
Newspaper Audience losses
Source: Editor and Publisher Yearbook data; U.S. Census Bureau
What is the advertiser buying? Has value increased with price?

6. 6
Advertising Revenue Growth
Source: Newspaper Association of America Business Analysis and Research Department
All categories have challenges but classifieds most threatened

7. 7
Online Revenue Growth
Source: Pricewaterhouse Coopers LLP
Online revenues grow rapidly, first by allocation, then upsell, next online only

8. 8
Online Revenue Growth
Source: Borrell Associates Inc.
Who, really, is the competition?

9. 9
Online Share of Revenue
Source: Borrell Associates Inc.
Rapidly growing portion of your business (rapidly enough?)

10. 10
Online-only replaces ‘core’
Is online-only surpassing your upsells from print?
Online Revenue
Online Upsell Online Only

11. 11
Maturing Business
Source: The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
Internet penetration is reaching the top; where do we go from here?

12. 12
Changing Audience/Advertiser Behavior/Demand
Source: The Pew Research Center for the People and the Press
Most Appealing Aspects of Internet News

13. 13
Opportunity is knocking
50% of your local audience is yet to be captured and monetized
Growth
Opportunity
55%
Access
Client Site
13%
Do NOT
Access Web
32%
Source: Belden Associates

14. 14
…or maybe it’s all just Marketing!
Ken Riddick
SVP for Interactive Media
The StarTribune
612.673.4401
kriddick@startribune.com