Birnbaum

Telling Stories—and Editing—at Scale
Larry Birnbaum
Northwestern University
Dept. of EECS & Medill School of Journalism
Knight Lab
Narrative Science Inc.

The punch line...The Rio Grande Valley Killer Bees were
firing on all cylinders against the Laredo
Bucks, and when the final buzzer sounded
Killer Bees emerged with a 6-3 win.

Medicine…
INVESTIGATORSITE PATIENT EVENT SUBEVENT DCM DATE DCM TIME DCI NAME DCM NAMESUBSET NAMEQUESTION GROUP NAMEQUESTION NAMEO_SN R_SN DATA VALUEDATA COMMENTQUALIFYING VALUESTUDYT
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A003_V3LAB_TIME 0 1 105800 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A003_V3LAB_DATE 0 1 20100223 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A003_V3LAB_ND 0 1 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A003_V3LAB_TPD 0 1 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A003_V3LAB_TPP 0 1 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A003_V3LAB_SAMP_ID 0 1 H099322 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A003_V3LAB_ID 0 1 140 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A004_V3LAB_TEST_ID 0 1 CNT69 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A004_V3LAB_TEST_ID 0 2 CNT63 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A004_V3LAB_TEST_ID 0 3 RCT30 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A004_V3LAB_TEST_ID 0 20 SCT1528 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A004_V3LAB_TEST_ID 0 21 AXT542 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A004_V3LAB_TEST_ID 0 22 HMT10 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A004_V3LAB_TEST_ID 0 37 UAT2 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
53398 5.88E+09 10031002 SCREENING 1 LAB_LOAD_V3_1LAB_LOAD_V3_1LBL_1 LAB_A004_V3LAB_TEST_ID 0 38 UAT3 CENTRAL LAB 1A3921032
This 48-year-old White female subject in Canada with a medical
history of diarrhea, ovarian cyst, asthma, depression,
hypertension, GI upset, cholecystectomy and hysterectomy
received CP-690,550 for the treatment of active rheumatoid
arthritis. The subject was treated with CP-690,550 orally, 5 mg
twice daily, at a total daily dose of 10 mg, from 07 Apr 2010
(Study Day 1) to 09 Sep 2010, for a total of 156 days.

…and Unstructured Data Too
NEWT GINGRICH GAINS ATTENTION WITH HOT-BUTTON TOPICS TAXES, CHARACTER
ISSUES
Newt Gingrich received the largest increase in Tweets about him today. Twitter activity associated
with the candidate has shot up since yesterday, with most users tweeting about taxes and
character issues. Newt Gingrich has been consistently popular on Twitter, as he has been the top
riser on the site for the last four days. Conversely, the number of tweets about Ron Paul has
dropped in the past 24 hours. Another traffic loser was Rick Santorum, who has also seen tweets
about him fall off a bit.
While the overall tone of the Gingrich tweets is positive, public opinion regarding the candidate
and character issues is trending negatively. In particular, @MommaVickers says, "Someone needs
to put The Blood Arm's 'Suspicious Character' to a photo montage of Newt Gingrich. #pimp”.
On the other hand, tweeters with a long reach are on the upside with regard to Newt Gingrich's
take on taxes. Tweeting about this issue, @elvisroy000 says, "Newt Gingrich Cut Taxes Balanced
Budget, 1n 80s and 90s, Newt experienced Conservative with values”.
Maine recently held its primary, but it isn't talking about Gingrich. Instead the focus is on Ron Paul
and religious issues.

Why Stories?
Q1 - 2010 Q2 - 2010 Q3 - 2010 Q4 - 2010 Q1 - 2011 Q2 - 2011 Q3 - 2011 Q4 - 2011 Q1 - 2012 Q2 - 2012 Q3 - 2012
Gross
Profit $9,600,000 $12,402,000 $15,774,720 $19,750,349 $24,334,442 $29,497,712 $35,168,885 $41,229,808 $47,513,986 $53,809,589 $59,867,622
Sales $12,000,000 $15,600,000 $19,968,000 $25,159,680 $31,198,003 $38,061,564 $45,673,877 $53,895,174 $62,518,402 $71,270,979 $79,823,496
$-
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
Q1 - 2010 Q2 - 2010 Q3 - 2010 Q4 - 2010 Q1 - 2011 Q2 - 2011 Q3 - 2011 Q4 - 2011
Gross Profit
Sales
Over the past eight quarters, AmgenCorp has seen a
steady increase in both sales and gross profit. During
this period, however, two trends have become apparent.
While sales have increased, there has been a steady
decrease in margins which should be cause for concern.
In addition, while we have seen quarter-to-quarter
increases in both sales and gross profit, each of these
metrics is decelerating, indicating that the business is
experiencing a slow down.

Narrative Analytics
• Stories embody high-level patterns or themes
that are efficiently communicated and
effectively grasped—e.g., comeback, fade, low-
hanging fruit, etc.
• Stories pick out, connect, and summarize the
critical aspects of a situation
• Stories explain: They convey trends, causes,
and even recommendations
• Stories make data meaningful.

First Prototype Developed at Northwestern

Big Data Made Personal
TICKER DATE
CURRENT
ASSETS
ACCOUNTS
PAYABLE
TOTAL
ASSETS CASH
COST OF
SALES
DEBT IN
CURRENT
LIABILITIES
DEBT IN LONG
TERM LIABILITIES
DEPRECIATION AND
AMORTIZATION NET INCOME INVENTORIES
S 12/31/11 0:00 10337 1887 49383 5597 5419 8 20266 1174 -1303 913
S 9/30/11 0:00 8650 2188 48015 4001 4611 2257 16272 1194 -301 923
S 6/30/11 0:00 9182 3035 49043 4271 4589 2256 16278 1235 -847 1160
S 3/31/11 0:00 8447 2738 49320 3998 4396 2256 16282 1255 -439 728
S 12/31/10 0:00 9880 2131 51654 5473 4568 1656 18535 1386 -929 670
S 9/30/10 0:00 9255 2423 52274 4666 4496 1758 18540 1552 -911 562
S 6/30/10 0:00 8955 2494 53226 4277 4230 1758 18543 1635 -760 675
S 3/31/10 0:00 8835 2282 54282 4374 4198 2415 18639 1675 -865 526
S 12/31/09 0:00 8593 1575 55424 3924 4079 768 20293 1802 -980 628
S 9/30/09 0:00 10259 2161 55648 5943 4269 765 20892 1820 -478 485
S 6/30/09 0:00 9098 2061 55885 4609 4061 1373 19618 1911 -384 575
S 3/31/09 0:00 8903 2105 57225 4536 4026 1225 20376 1870 -594 510
S 12/31/08 0:00 8344 1574 58252 3719 4122 618 20992 1992 -1621 528
S 9/30/08 0:00 9266 2582 61861 4191 4224 1617 21023 2057 -326 682
S 6/30/08 0:00 8941 2481 62805 3501 4177 626 22358 2157 -344 625
S 3/31/08 0:00 10327 3264 65463 4775 4223 1330 22987 2190 -505 842
S 12/31/07 0:00 8661 2750 64109 2440 4237 1661 20469 2220 -29452 938
S 9/30/07 0:00 8920 3320 93926 2243 4222 429 21723 2222 64 876
S 6/30/07 0:00 9278 3309 94895 2424 4342 1185 21713 2313 19 1018
S 3/31/07 0:00 8947 3307 95089 2354 4390 419 21752 2268 -211 884
S 12/31/06 0:00 10304 2366 97161 2061 4320 1143 21011 2404 261 1176
T 12/31/11 0:00 23027 8593 270344 3185 11194 3453 61300 4573 -6678 1188
T 9/30/11 0:00 28605 17860 277653 10762 13165 8900 62326 4618 3623 1216.75
T 6/30/11 0:00 22239 18145 272014 3831 13332 7910 58663 4602 3591 1245.5
T 3/31/11 0:00 19737 18349 268085 1391 13403 6902 58126 4584 3408 1274.25
T 12/31/10 0:00 19951 7437 268488 1437 13939 7196 58971 4907 1087 1303
T 9/30/10 0:00 21977 18417 269252 3246 13605 6426 62540 4873 11539 1198.5
T 6/30/10 0:00 21392 18157 267556 1377 12452 9721 60277 4819 4008 1094
T 3/31/10 0:00 22362 18087 265701 2617 12383 9437 60024 4780 2451 989.5
T 12/31/09 0:00 24334 7514 268752 3802 12974 7361 64720 4966 2716 885
T 9/30/09 0:00 25921 18093 266568 6167 12839 6755 65909 4816 3077 879.25
T 6/30/09 0:00 26940 18046 267918 7348 12557 10155 66565 4875 3195 873.5
T 3/31/09 0:00 23521 17359 264358 3812 12201 10790 63560 4858 3130 867.75
T 12/31/08 0:00 22556 6921 265245 1792 12642 14119 60872 5044 2404 862
T 9/30/08 0:00 23445 18690 284528 1594 13022 17419 59355 4978 3230 926.25
T 6/30/08 0:00 23225 18927 284508 1631 11897 16472 63675 4958 3772 990.5
DATE TICKER SHORT TERM DEBT LONG TERM DEBT
DEPRECIATION
EXPENSE SALES CAPEX
12/31/2011 S 8 20266 1174 8722 909
9/30/2011 S 2257 16272 1194 8333 818
6/30/2011 S 2256 16278 1235 8311 759
3/31/2011 S 2256 16282 1255 8313 644
12/31/2010 S 1656 18535 1386 8301 523
9/30/2010 S 1758 18540 1552 8152 490
6/30/2010 S 1758 18543 1635 8025 417
3/31/2010 S 2415 18639 1675 8085 505
12/31/2009 S 768 20293 1802 7868 484
9/30/2009 S 765 20892 1820 8042 402
6/30/2009 S 1373 19618 1911 8141 340
3/31/2009 S 1225 20376 1870 8209 377
12/31/2008 S 618 20992 1992 8430 610
9/30/2008 S 1617 21023 2057 8816 703
6/30/2008 S 626 22358 2157 9055 899
3/31/2008 S 1330 22987 2190 9334 1670
12/31/2007 S 1661 20469 2220 9847 1671
9/30/2007 S 429 21723 2222 10044 1261
6/30/2007 S 1185 21713 2313 10163 1577
3/31/2007 S 419 21752 2268 10092 1813
12/31/2006 S 1143 21011 2404 10438 2411
!!The company's financial leverage (Debt/EBITDA) of
5.14x is above the industry median of 2.16x and up from
4.51x a year ago as seen in figure 4. The increase looks
to be driven by a decline in EBITDA, which fell 11.8%
from a year ago. A leverage ratio this high in absolute
terms and should it continue, could impact the
company's performance in the future.
As seen in figure 5, the company's coverage
(EBIT/Interest Expense), though negative, moved nearer
to zero to -0.64x from -1.2x a year ago. The industry's
median coverage ratio was 3.51x. Going from -$1.77
billion a year ago to -$911 million, a change in EBIT
primarily drove the change. In absolute terms, a
negative coverage ratio means that the company is not
creating the earnings needed to cover interest payments
on debt. Should this continue, it could weigh on
company performance.
As seen in figure 6, Capex/Sales rose from 5.94x a year
ago to 9.29x for the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2011 driven
by a 61.8% rise in Capex. With Capex/Depreciation
below one and Capex growth outstripping the rise in
sales, there could be a future impact on operating
margins because the company will have trouble
covering the capital expenditures. While the company
appears to be investing in fixed assets, the company's
total debt remained level at $20.27 billion to signal the
company isn't taking on significantly more debt, but free
cash flow fell 80.5% from a year earlier, signaling the
company may not be generating sufficient cash flow to
cover future capital expenditures.
SPRINT NEXTEL March 2, 2012
2 MARCH 2, 2012
Inside the Fundamentals - Financing and Interest & Debt Coverage
CAPITAL MARKETS RESEARCH
Factor Trend VS
Peers
Last 12
Months (LTM)
2010 Change Industry
Average
(LTM)
Industry
Average 2010
Industry Change
Debt/EBITDA N/A 5.14x 4.51x 0.6% 1.54x 2.15x -28.5%
Debt/Net
Worth
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
EBIT/Interest
Expense
N/A -0.64x -1.2x -46.7% 5.16x 3.37x 0%
CFO-
Dividends/CA
PEX
N/A 1.18 2.49 -52.6% 2.8% 1.5% 82.1%
Debt Service N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Asset
Coverage
N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
FCF/Interest
Expense
N/A 0.39x 1.95x -79.8% 4.07x 1.73x -79.8%
!
While the company appears to be investing
in fixed assets, the company's total debt
remained level at $20.27 billion to signal
the company isn't taking on significantly
more debt, but free cash flow fell 80.5%
from a year earlier, signaling the company
may not be generating sufficient cash flow
to cover future capital expenditures.

Investment Research
While the company appears to be
investing in fixed assets, the company's
total debt remained level at $20.27 billion
to signal the company isn't taking on
significantly more debt, but free cash
flow fell 80.5% from a year earlier,
signaling the company may not be
generating sufficient cash flow to cover
future capital expenditures.
While the company appears to be
investing in fixed assets, the company's
total debt remained level at $20.27 billion
to signal the company isn't taking on
significantly more debt, but free cash
flow fell 80.5% from a year earlier,
signaling the company may not be
generating sufficient cash flow to cover
future capital expenditures.

Sector Reporting
Thursday, October 6, 2011 12:00 PM: HEALTHCARE MIDDAY COMMENTARY:

The Healthcare (XLV) sector underperformed the market in early trading on Thursday. Healthcare
stocks trailed the market by 0.4%. So far, the Dow rose 0.2%, the NASDAQ saw growth of 0.8%, and
the S&P500 was up 0.4%.

Here are a few Healthcare stocks that bucked the sector's downward trend.

MRK (Merck & Co Inc.) erased early losses and rose 0.6% to $31.26. The company recently
announced its chairman is stepping down. MRK stock traded in the range of $31.21 -  $31.56. MRK's
volume was 86.1% lower than usual with 2.5 million shares trading hands. Today's gains still leave the
stock about 11.1% lower than its price three months ago.

LUX (Luxottica Group) struggled in early trading but showed resilience later in the day. Shares rose
3.8% to $26.92. LUX traded in the range of $26.48 -  $26.99. Luxottica Group’s early share volume
was 34,155. Today's gains still leave the stock 21.8% below its 52-week high of $34.43. The stock
remains about 16.3% lower than its price three months ago.

Shares of UHS (Universal Health Services Inc.) are trading at $32.89, up 81 cents (2.5%) from the
previous close of $32.08. UHS traded in the range of $32.06 -  $33.01…
The Healthcare (XLV) sector underperformed the market
in early trading on Thursday. Healthcare stocks trailed
the market by 0.4%. So far, the Dow rose 0.2%, the
NASDAQ saw growth of 0.8%, and the S&P500 was up
0.4%.
MRK (Merck & Co Inc.) erased early losses and rose 0.6% to
$31.26. The company recently announced its chairman is stepping
down. MRK stock traded in the range of $31.21 -  $31.56. MRK's
volume was 86.1% lower than usual with 2.5 million shares trading
hands. Today's gains still leave the stock about 11.1% lower than its
price three months ago.

Business ReportingREST_KEY Rest Coop Reporting Day Daypart Name Daypart Description Daypart Sales $ Daypart Transaction Qty
1364 SEA/TCA WA CP-0024 1/2/10 After 4PM 4PM - Close 1529.84 235
1364 SEA/TCA WA CP-0024 1/2/10 Afternoon 2PM - 4PM 539.2 75
1364 SEA/TCA WA CP-0024 1/2/10 Breakfast Open - 10:30AM (11AM weekend) 1027.4 180
1364 SEA/TCA WA CP-0024 1/2/10 Dinner 4PM - 9PM 957.24 156
1364 SEA/TCA WA CP-0024 1/2/10 Evening 9PM - Close 572.6 79
1364 SEA/TCA WA CP-0024 1/2/10 Late Night 11PM - 5AM 222.55 31
1364 SEA/TCA WA CP-0024 1/2/10 Lunch 11AM - 2PM 950.53 159
1364 SEA/TCA WA CP-0024 1/2/10 Morning Open - 11AM 1027.4 180
1364 SEA/TCA WA CP-0024 1/2/10 Regular Menu 10:30AM (11AM weekend) - Close 3019.57 469
1364 SEA/TCA WA CP-0024 1/2/10 Total Day All hours 4046.97 649

Quill Engage for Google Analytics
18
https://quillengage.narrativescience.com

Quill Engage – Weekly Report
19

More and More, Machines are Making
Editorial Judgments

What Values Underlie Their Decisions?

Editorial Algorithms Should Be Written in
Human Terms
 The factors and trade-offs they take into
account should be formulated in terms of
editorial values that make sense to people
 Their decision-making should be visible
and controllable by the people who build
them, deploy them, and use their results
 Journalists and technologists will need to
work together to make this happen

I Want to Give Editors / Users an Interface
Like This!

Thanks
 Colleagues (many), especially Kris Hammond,
Rich Gordon, Jeremy Gilbert, Zach Wise, and
Owen Youngman
 Students (scores), especially Nick Allen, John
Templon, Patrick McNally, Shawn O’Banion,
Miriam Boon, and Jason Cohn
 Funders, especially the John S. and James L.
Knight Foundation, the National Science
Foundation, and Google
 Narrative Science (for making it real)

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