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Economic Development Update - Garrett County, MD (09.24.2013)
1. Economic Update & Current Initiatives
Mike Koch, Director
Garrett County Economic Development
mkoch@garrettcounty.org
2. Nestled in the mountains of Western Maryland, Garrett County features high
elevations—and higher opportunities for prosperity. Lured by an abundance of
resources and natural beauty, over 900 businesses elevate their workforce—and
profit margins—in Garrett County. Boasting a solid workforce and affordable real
estate, Garrett County blends modern conveniences with country living. Efficient
by design, our technology and transportation infrastructure redefine rural life,
offering convenience and proximity to key markets.
In Garrett County, we’re reinventing rural. Mindful of our agrarian roots, we
support the organic growth of innovation. Strata joins 33 specialty manufacturers
making their mark globally, with cutting-edge safety, technology, construction and
consumer products. Our manufacturers are inventive and are reinventing the rural
economy. Visit: www.reinventingrural.com to learn more.
4. 35000
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Popula'on
(persons)
Population
Popula'on
1969-‐2010
Garre6
County
30000
25000
20000
County population has stagnated since 2000.
15000
Population level has remained flat at 30,000
Popula2on
10000
5000
0
Source:
U.S.
Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
4
5. Total Employment
25000
20000
Total
Employment
(Garre6
County)1969-‐2010
While population has remained stagnant, Total
Employment has risen from 17,470* in 2000 to
20,681* in 2010 – an increase of 17.5% in one
decade or 1.75% per year on average.
15000
10000
5000
* Based on Seasonally Adjusted employment figures
0
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source:
U.S.
Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
5
6. 16.0
14.0
8.0
1994-‐01-‐01
1994-‐09-‐01
1995-‐05-‐01
1996-‐01-‐01
1996-‐09-‐01
1997-‐05-‐01
1998-‐01-‐01
1998-‐09-‐01
1999-‐05-‐01
2000-‐01-‐01
2000-‐09-‐01
2001-‐05-‐01
2002-‐01-‐01
2002-‐09-‐01
2003-‐05-‐01
2004-‐01-‐01
2004-‐09-‐01
2005-‐05-‐01
2006-‐01-‐01
2006-‐09-‐01
2007-‐05-‐01
2008-‐01-‐01
2008-‐09-‐01
2009-‐05-‐01
2010-‐01-‐01
2010-‐09-‐01
2011-‐05-‐01
2012-‐01-‐01
2012-‐09-‐01
2013-‐05-‐01
2014-‐01-‐01
2014-‐09-‐01
2015-‐05-‐01
2016-‐01-‐01
2016-‐09-‐01
Unemployment
Rate
(%)
Monthly Unemployment
Monthly
Unemployment
Rate
Comparison
(GC,MD,US)
1990-‐2012
20.0
18.0
Variance = 7.6%
County unemployment rates show clear
cyclicality with annual peaks from Sep - Jan.
While indicative of dependence on seasonal
tourism, the amplitude of this cycle is diminishing.
12.0
10.0
Variance = 2.8%
Garre9
County
Maryland
United
States
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
Source:
U.S.
Bureau
of
Labor
Sta9s9cs
6
7. Annual Unemployment
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Annual unemployment provides a less erratic view on median
unemployment in Garrett County. Since the start of the “Great
Recession” in 2007, the county has clearly outperformed the nation, and
over recent years has begun to close the gap with the State of Maryland.
Source:
United
States
Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
8. Per Capita Income
60000
Per Capita Income (Garrett County) 1969-2010
Per
Capita
Income
(in
dollars
$)
50000
40000
Garre9
County
30000
Maryland
United
States
20000
10000
0
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
In recent years, Garrett County incomes have gained considerable
ground. In 2010, county per capital income was $36,725 – lagging the
national per capita income of $39,937 by only 8.7%
Source:
United
States
Bureau
of
Economic
Analysis
12. Pull Factors (Retail Sales)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Income
Adjusted
Pull
Factors
1.244
1.339
1.302
1.359
1.348
1.394
1.429
1.476
1.564
1.555
Designed to measure the degree to which retail sales are captured inside of the county –
or conversely “leak” to markets outside the county – pull factors are measured
according to the following scale:
< 1
Indicates that county residents are spending a portion of their incomes outside of
the county
= 1
Indicates equilibrium; county residents are spending their incomes in the county
> 1
Indicates the county is pulling 100% of the purchasing capacity from county
residents as well as attracting purchases from outside the county.
Since 1969 Garrett County has never had its retail sales Pull Factors drop below 1.
Source:
Garre<
County
Department
of
Economic
Development
12
13. Shift Share Analysis
The Shift Share Analysis compares the actual performance of the county with
the predicted performance based on national performance standards. Based
on this, the county added 2110 more jobs than “expected.”
Source:
Garre<
County
Department
of
Economic
Development
13
14. Recession Shift Share Analysis
This Shift Share Analysis shows the out-performance of Garrett County
relative to the nation during the Great Recession (2007-2010)
14
Source:
Garre<
County
Department
of
Economic
Development
15. Coefficient of Specialization (COS)
COS
Numbers
for
Garre6
County
18.50%
18.00%
COS = 0 = Complete Diversification
COS = 100 = Complete Specialization
17.98%
17.50%
17.27%
17.00%
16.50%
COS is used to measure the
degree of specialization vs.
diversification of a region’s
employment relative to the
nation. Based on “portfolio
theory” in finance, the more
diversified – the greater the
expected returns over time.
16.59%
COS
Numbers
16.00%
15.83%
15.50%
15.00%
14.50%
2001
2004
2007
2010
15
Source:
Garre<
County
Department
of
Economic
Development
16. Comparative COS
County
COS
Number
Comparison
20
18
16
COS
Number
%
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Frederick
Kent
Bal2more
Howard
Allegany
Garre9
Anne
Arundle
2001
12.64
15.06
12.5
16.85
17
16.59
17.31
2004
12.65
14.98
12.86
16.89
16.55
17.98
17.06
2007
13.82
13.34
12.83
16.78
16.22
17.27
17.08
2010
13.36
13.05
13.05
17.99
17.07
15.83
16.62
Although the Garrett County COS is higher than some other MD counties,
COS values are trending downward and reflect an increasingly diversified
economy and workforce and a more stable investment environment.
Source:
Garre<
County
Department
of
Economic
Development
16
17. Location Multipliers
Location multipliers – calculated using various methodologies – are used to estimate the
actual economic impact of job creation in specific locations. The multiplier value – for
example 2.44 – means that for every 1 export-devoted job created in the county, 1 x
2.44 = 2.44 jobs will be created. Manufacturing sector jobs, a strong and healthy sector
in Garrett County, best exemplify the importance of this multiplier given that majority of
county-based manufacturing is intended for consumption outside of the county.
Economists routinely underestimate, so the lowest multiplier calculated is used for
estimations.
17
Source:
Garre<
County
Department
of
Economic
Development
18. Business AR&E
New
and
Expanding
Businesses
(Garre9
County)
September
2012
-‐
Present
17 New Businesses
7 Expanding Business
19. Business AR&E
Business and Industrial Parks Occupancy
Keyser's Ridge Business Park - no occupancy
McHenry Business Park - no occupancy
Central Garrett Industrial Park:
--Garrett Container Systems, Inc. - 136 employees
--Phenix Technologies, Inc. - 100 employees
--Quality Machining, Inc. - 14 employees
Northern Garrett Industrial Park:
--Pillar Innovations, LLC - 96 employees
--ClosetMaid Corporation - 157 employees
--New England Truss & Joist - 4 employees
--Robosson Supply West, LLC - 3 employees
--Total Biz Fulfillment, Inc. - 46 employees
Southern Garrett Industrial Park:
--C. Palmer Die Casting, Inc. - 37 employees
--Garrett Industrial Supply - included w/Pioneer Conveyor
--Morningstar, Inc. - 72 employees
--Mt. Top Granite & Marble, LLC - 5 employees
--NuWay Interiors, LLC - 20 employees
--Simon Pearce of MD, Inc. - 42 employees
Southern Garrett Business & Technology Park:
--GCC Technologies, LLC - 62 employees
--Deep Creek Ready-Mix - 5 employees
--Pioneer Conveyor - 135 employees
--Greater MD Tool & Manufacturing Corp - 10 employees
--Total Biz Fulfillment, Inc. - 12 employees
21. Economic Development
• Existing Business Developments
Beitzel/Pillar
AssetBook
GCC Technologies
Adventure Sports Center International (ASCI) & Deep Creek 2014 ICF
World Championships
– The WISP Resort
–
–
–
–
• New Businesses Developments
– Tractor Supply
– Strata Safety Products
– Cher-Kana, LLC
• In the Exploratory Pipeline
– Noble Energy (Vertical Wind Ventures)
– Value-Added Agri-business
– Artist-in-Residence
21
22. Infrastructure Initiatives
• Re-opening of I-68 Welcome Center
• Grant-funded projects
–
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
•
•
County-wide Broadband Initiative
Penny Lane
Business Park Drive
Thayersville Road Realignment
ASCI development
Garrett Trails – hiking & biking
Keyser’s Ridge Business Park infrastructure
Western Conveyance
Municipality outreach & collaborative planning
DCL Watershed Management
22
23. Developing Energy Assets
• Re-formation of “Commissioners’ Marcellus Shale
Advisory Committee”
• Pending Formation: “Mountain Maryland Energy
Advisory Committee”
– More broadly chartered to include all relevant energy sectors
– Staffed by energy sector experts, academics, and cross-jurisdictional
representatives
– Led by professional consultant
– Tasked with specific deliverables
• Participation and support for State-led Economic Impact
Study of Shale Gas Development
– Stakeholder engagement
– Parallel completion of Economic Impact Study: Tourism and Deep
Creek Lake
23
24. “Telling Our Story”
• County Public Relations & Media Outreach
– Relocation Guide
– Reinventing Rural Campaign Development
– Editorial planning
• County Branding Study
– Collaboration between Board of Commissioners, Chamber of
Commerce, and Economic Development
– Carefully planned roll-out in progress to maximize support and
collaborative adoption
• Co-branding guidelines
• Style and use guidelines
24
