PSEWeb 2010 - Emerging Trends keynote

Higher Education in Challenging Times:Emerging Trends 2010 Ken SteeleSenior Vice-President, Education Marketing PSE Web ConferenceMay 2010 | St Catharines

My Point-of-View Academica’s Top Ten 3 years, daily summary(7,500 stories searchable) Scan 3,000 sources daily 8,000 email subscribersincluding presidents, VPs, faculty, gov’t policy analysts, guidance counsellors, media editors Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Ken Steele | Copyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

Calculating Value 5 hours/day x 8,000 subscribers = 40,000 hrs/day saved! Saving 9.6 million hrs/year Saving Canadian PSE at least $150 million/year! Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Ken Steele | Copyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

Bottled Water Bans uManitoba Student Union (Spring 2008) Bottled water free zones Lakehead Students Protest (Nov 2008) uWinnipeg (March 2009) Memorial (Sept 2009) Brandon U (Jan 2010) Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

UBC EcoTrek UBC achieved its Kyoto targets by 2006 Largest energy retrofit in Canadian history Saved $3.8 M in energy costs ($2.6 M annually ongoing) Self-funding UBC Sustainability Dept (7 staff, 10 students) 9 sustainability goals, 68 actions More than 300 courses on sustainability Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Endowment July 2009: StFX endowment fund lost 43% 90% was invested in Canadian stock market. Worst performance for a university fund last year. Rethinking strategy. -43% Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficits April 2009: Endowments -$152 M Pooled Investments - $51 M $33M deficit by 2011 15% budget cut, salary freezes Possible layoffs $152 Million Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficits June 2009: McMaster balanced 2009-10 budget through $20 M in deferred maintenance, hiring delays/freezes, and reserves. Could face deficits of $50 M in 2010-11 and 2011-12. Finance cttee chair is “very concerned about the financial health of the university” $100 million Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficits June 2009: York reports 18% loss on endowment. Pension plan faces potential deficit over the next 3 years of $250 Million Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficits Aug 2009: Forecasting a $7.8 M deficit for 2010-11. “Base budget realignment targets” 3.25% for faculties, 5% for other budgets. Cut 6 varsity teams. $8 Million Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficits Oct 2009: Investments - $112 M (as of April). $59 M budget shortfall for 2009-10. Slowing hiring, holding back on optional spending. Considering layoffs, tuition hikes. $112 Million Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficits April 2010: 2008-2012 structural deficit of $46.2 M $16.2 M in budget cuts in 2010 $280 M required for pension solvency $280 Million Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficits May 2009: Lakehead U projects $6.3 M deficit this year, $35-$50 M in 5 years. Considering hiring freeze. 4-day shutdown prior to Christmas 2009. CAUT grieves. $6.3 Million Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficits Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc. “We‘ve got to rethink the way we do business here at Lakehead. If we don’t change the way we run our business, we’ll be just like GM… The model just doesn’t work under the current funding arrangements for a university to operate.” Michael Pawlowski, VP Administration & Finance

Financial Responses Construction/Renovation stalled Maintenance deferred “Horizontal” budget cuts across-the-board “Vertical” budget cuts to targeted units/programs Merging academic departments Merging campuses, Institutions For-profit purchases of ailing colleges Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Financial Responses Travel restricted Hiring restricted/delayed/frozen Salaries frozen or cut Teaching loads increased Sabbaticals cancelled Mandatory furloughs Protectionist purchasing policies Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficit Nov 2009: NAIT proposes 40% tuition increase over the next 3 years. Budget shortfall is $2.3 M. Average tuition now is $3,800, the lowest in the province. Would bring it in line with SAIT at $5,500. +40% tuition Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficit Nov 2009: uAlberta proposes tuition increases for professional programs of up to 66% next year, to bring it in line with other universities. Also considering a “non-academic fee” of several hundred dollars per student to help cover the deficit. +66% tuition Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficit April 2010: Law proposes 46.2% tuition increase over 3 years. Business proposes undergrad tuition increase of 54.1% over 2 years. MBA proposes 78.5% tuition increase over 3 years. up to 79% tuition hike Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Deficit April 2010: McGill proposes raising Desautels MBA tuition from $1,672 to $29,500. (Comparable programs are up to $70,000 elsewhere.) Province threatens to penalize McGill for every MBA student. +1664% tuition Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

-120,000 over 10 years Canadian Council on Learning, Report on Learning in Canada 2007, PSE in Canada: Strategies for Success

Multiplier Effects “US Abortion, Vasectomy Rates Rise as Economy Falters” (CBC News, March 25 2009) Network of Abortion Funds reports calls to their hotline have quadrupled from a year ago Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Parental EducationOntario University Applicants, 2005 2005 UAS – survey of 40,000 Ontario university applicantsSpecialized study of New Canadians for Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

Parental InfluenceOntario University Applicants, 2005 2005 UAS – survey of 40,000 Ontario university applicantsSpecialized study of New Canadians for Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

Plan to Live with ParentsOntario University Applicants, 2005 2005 UAS – survey of 40,000 Ontario university applicantsSpecialized study of New Canadians for Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

First-Choice ProgramOntario University Applicants, 2005 New Cdn / First Generation Cdn: more attracted to: Science Commerce Engineering Mathematics lessinterested in: Arts/Hum/SocSci Education Fine/Applied Arts Music 2005 UAS – survey of 40,000 Ontario university applicantsSpecialized study of New Canadians for Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

“The Girl Problem” Ontario CAS 2005-08

The Great He-Cession Men account for 82% of all job losses since the start of the recession (2.7 million jobs) New York Times, Feb 6 2009, citing Current Population Survey and Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc. Oct 2009Toronto DSB Chris Spence, Director of Education at TDSB, is proposing a “Male Leadership Academy” all-boys public high school in Toronto (Oct 20, 2009)

“I am going to be an advocate for young white men, because I can be.” — uAlberta president IndiraSamarasekera Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc. Nov 2009University of Alberta

Students’ Top 4 Priorities Interesting Work Work-Life Balance Good People to Work With Job Security — Brainstorm Consulting, From Learning to Work (2009 Survey of 16,000 Canadian university and college students) Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Government of Canada Provincial Government Health Canada Google Apple Hospital for Sick Children Municipal Government Microsoft Canadian Cancer Society David Suzuki Foundation Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc. Brainstorm Consulting, From Learning to Work (2009 Survey of 16,000 Canadian university and college students)

University Programs Apps Up 2010 (2009) Forestry +43% (-27%) Prelim. Yr +43% Education +12% (-2%) Nursing +11% (+10%) Landscape Arc +8% (+8%) Social Work +7% (+11%) Down 2010 (2009) Business -0% (-10%) Architecture -4% (-1%) Enviro Studies -6% (+5%) Journalism -14% (-4%) Overall application volumes in Ontario were up +2.6% Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc. OUAC Application Volumes May 2010 compared to May 2009 Sept 2009 compared to Sept 2008

Part-Time Undergraduates Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc. Anne Motte and Saul Schwartz, Are Student Employment and Academic Success Linked? Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation Research Note #9, April 2009

Part-time Students Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 2003–04 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:04).

3-Year Bachelor Degrees Proposed in early 2009 by some US colleges to save money, better serve students Heavier course loads, summers in session Bologna process has standardized 3-year bachelors degrees in Europe Already offered by U of Houston-Victoria, uWashington, Lipscomb U, Hartwick College, a few others Announced for fall 2010 by Arcadia U, Holy Family U, UNC Greensboro, Georgia Southwestern State U U Illinois studying the idea Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

UNC Greensborough | 2010 | :30

3-Year Bachelor Degrees Appeals to military, grad-school-bound, motivated, high-achieving students “The higher-ed equivalent of a fuel-efficient car” (Lamar Alexander, US Sec of Ed 1991-93) “It would be nice if institutions actually provided four-year degrees… before we think about accelerating.” (Alexander McCormick, Director NSSE) Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Royal Roads University “Special purpose university” est. 1995 Clear focus: mid-career professionals,grad degrees, applied/relevant Compressed PT, Blended ModelBAs - Years 3 and 4 in oneMAs - Single year PT Cohort-based, mentoring, teamwork Work full-time while a student Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Royal Roads University Exceeding enrolment targets 90% completion rate Target Sectors: Healthcare, Military, Education, Public Sector, Technology Have secured > $1 M in sales for new Corporate Education Division Creating distributed student services Model tuned for immigrant accreditation Opened satellite campuses in Victoria and in James Bay (March 2009) Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

A La Carte Learning Extremely customizable workforce training at Kellogg Community College, Battle Creek MI Courses broken into 1,200 skill “modules” Walk-in basis, Unlimited time to complete, Pay only on completion Eg. Machine tooling: 7 different skills in precision measurement Micrometer module: 0.13 credit hours, takes about 3 hours, and costs $20.94 Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

For-Profits in the US Models of Efficiency: No tenure, no long-term contracts Convenient locations, parking Start dates every few weeks Online delivery is scalable Curriculum for new courses in a few days Virtually unlimited capital for expansion from Wall Street Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

25,100 students in 1995 455,600 now – larger than the entire enrolment of the “Big Ten” US universities 200 campuses in 39 states, Canada, Mexico, Netherlands, and Puerto Rico Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Apollo Group (uPhoenix, Meritus U) Q1 revenue in 2009 increased 24% year-over-year to $971 million $278 million in online advertising (Washington Post, June 2008) $225 million a QUARTER on marketing -- $1 Billion a year (23.5% of net revenue) Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Kaplan University Kaplan Higher Education is the fastest-growing arm of Kaplan Inc. Subsidiary of the Washington Post Operates colleges online and at campuses throughout the US and overseas Generated >$367-million in revenue in the first quarter of 2009 Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

2010 Tuitions US for-profits: avg$14,174 US 2-yr colleges: avg$2,544 US 4-yr public Us: avg$7,020 For-profit students borrow more, have the highest loan default rates 60% completion (vs 26% at 2-yr publics) SOURCES: The College Board, 2010, US Dept of Education,as reported in the Chronicle of Higher Education

For-Profit Growth SOURCE: StifelNicolaus Equity Research; Chronicle of Higher Education reporting.

For-Profits in the US Profitable Businesses: Positive cash-flow generators Accreditation valued at $10 million 20-25% of total revenues on marketing Just 10-20% on faculty Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

US Federal Financial Aid $20 Billion in annual grants and loans 25% goes to for-profit colleges ($5 B) 10% of US students, 44% of defaults University of Phoenix gets 86% of its revenue from grants and loans $750 Billion in outstanding student loans (equal to all US credit cards) Another subprime lending crisis? Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc. Recruitment marketing needs to be more data-driven. Extensive data is available on your applicants, your market share, your potential markets. Use that data to develop focused strategies.

Yale University | January 2010 | Clip 1 = 1:40

U of Delaware| April 2010 | Clip 2 = 1:32

Studies on Podcast Lectures Students prefer to listen to lectures at double speed (Taiwan, Netherlands, North America) Students who listen to podcasts outperform those who attended class by 15% on exams Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Ken Steele | Copyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

“Educational Disintermediation” “Universities will move to a superstar market for teachers in which the very best teachers use on-line instruction and TAs to teach thousands of students at many different universities.” — Alex Tabarrok, MarginalRevolution.com Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

The Jack Welch MBA Jack Welch, CEO of GE in the 80s and 90s $2 M (12%) stake in Chancellor University System LLC Bought formerly bankrupt Myers University (Cleveland) The “Jack Welch Institute” offers a cost-cutting online MBA - Just $20,000 tuition Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Big Implications of Web 2.0 “People get what they need directly from each other, not from traditional institutions” -- Charlene Li & Josh Bernoff, Groundswell: Winning in a World Transformed by Social Technologies Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Ken Steele | Copyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

Peer 2 Peer U Sept 2009p2pu.org 7 courses pilot test 227 students signed up from 35 countries About half US p2pu.org

Tens of thousands of courses 10 campuses US and Canada Project 450,000 courses at 160 universities and colleges by end of 2009 Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE Ken Steele | Copyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

Open Teaching David Wiley, a founder of the Open Teaching movement Online course at Utah State University in Fall 2007 Center for Open and Sustainable Learning Gave unofficial students homemade certificates for his course The Chronicle of Higher Ed asks: “Who needs college credit when you have a makeshift diploma from a superstar professor?” Emerging Trends in Canadian PSECopyright ©2008 Academica Group Inc.

Sept 2009UoPeople.org UoPeople.org

University of the People Launched Sept 2009 178 students from 49 nations Indonesia, Colombia, Vietnam, and US 105 in business, 73 in CompSci $15 to enrol, $100 for exam OCW, Social networking, Volunteer profs Accreditation ASAP Aims for 10,000 students by 2014 Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Change on the Horizon Bill Gates: "We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don't let yourself be lulled into inaction.” Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009 Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

Ken Steele Senior Vice-President ken@academica.ca Subscribe FREE to Academica’sTop Ten www.academica.ca

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