Emerging Trends 2011 - SEMM Forum Halifax - Nov 2010

Evolving for the Future
of Recruitment and Retention:
Emerging Trends 2011
Ken Steele
Senior Vice-President,
Education Marketing
SEMM Forum
Nov 2010 | Halifax

Ken Steele | Emerging Trends 2009
Copyright ©2009 Academica Group Inc.

11 Trends for 2011
1. Sustainability
2. eBooks
3. Economy
4. Tuition
5. Demographics
6. Millennials
7. Flexibility
8. Social Media
9. Feedback
10. Disintermediation
11. Outsourcing
Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE
Ken Steele | Copyright ©2010 Academica Group Inc.

Environmental
Sustainability

Bottled Water Bans
 uManitoba Student
Union (Spring 2008)
 Bottled water free zones
 Lakehead Students
Protest (Nov 2008)
 uWinnipeg (March 2009)
 Memorial (Sept 2009)
 Brandon U (Jan 2010)
Academica’s Top Ten | Spr 2008

UBC EcoTrek
 UBC achieved its Kyoto targets by 2006
 Largest energy retrofit in Canadian history
 Saved $3.8 M in energy costs
($2.6 M annually ongoing)
 Self-funding UBC Sustainability Dept
(7 staff, 10 students)
 9 sustainability goals, 68 actions
 More than 300 courses on sustainability
Academica’s Top Ten | 2006

Green Construction

Green Curriculum

2010: Year of the Tablet

Apple iPad
Launched April 2010
About 8 x 10”
Starting at $499
iBook store
Open-source format
Newspaper subscriptions
Sold 1 Million iPads in
the first 27 days
(US only)
Academica’s Top Ten | Apr 2010

eBook Revolution
 Amazon sold
143 eBooks
for every 100
hardcovers in
Q2 2010
 Amazon sold
sold 180
ebooks for
every 100
hardcovers
throughout
June 2010
 Publisher’s
Weekly
estimated
$81 M for
eBooks in
2009
 Compared to
$4.4 B for
hardcovers
and $5.1 B in
paperbacks
 Still less than
1% of market
Academica’s Top Ten | Aug 2010

OED abandons print
 20-vol print edition
($1,220) has sold
30,000 in total
 Digital version gets 2
million hits per month
($310/yr)
 “The print dictionary
market is just
disappearing. It is
falling away by tens of
percent a year.”
 Aug 2010: third edition
will likely never see
print
Academica’s Top Ten | Aug 2010

Bookless Libraries
 UC Merced Library – drastic reductions in
print volumes, focus on growing
electronic resources

Bookless Libraries
 Stanford
Engineering
Library – drastic
reductions in
print volumes,
focus on
growing
electronic
resources

Bookless Libraries
 UT San Antonio
Applied
Engineering &
Technology
Library - $82.5
million for a
new library
building - to
have ZERO
printed books,
425,000
ebooks and
18,000 ejournal
articles (Sept
2010)
Academica’s Top Ten | Sep 2010

 Free access to its textbooks
while students are online
 Downloadable PDF for $25
 Printed copy $30 (B&W)
 Virginia State business
school got a bulk rate of
$20 per student per course:
download digital copies,
study guide, audio version,
or an iPad edition (a bundle
that would typically cost
about $100).

 The “Kno” digital
textbook platform
 2 14-inch
touchscreens
 Partnered with
Cengage Learning,
McGraw-Hill, Pearson
and Wiley
 Under $1,000
 Launching on ten US
college campuses in
Fall 2011
KNO Technologies | Nov 2010

Economic Downturn

Source: AUCC, using StatsCan data.

Source: AUCC, using StatsCan data, NCES, HESA, and DEST data.

CAUT Almanac of Post-Secondary Education in Canada,
2010-2011. (September 2010)

High Tuition Fees

Tuition Hike
NAIT proposes 40% tuition
increase over the next 3 years.
Budget shortfall is $2.3 M.
Average tuition now is $3,800,
the lowest in the province.
Would bring it in line with SAIT
at $5,500.
+40% tuition
Ken Steele | Emerging Trends in Canadian PSE
Academica’s Top Ten | Nov 2009

Tuition Hike
uAlberta proposes tuition
increases for professional
programs of up to 66% next
year, to bring it in line with
other universities.
Also considering a “non-
academic fee” of several
hundred dollars per student to
help cover the deficit.
+66% tuition

Tuition Hike
Law proposes 46.2% tuition
increase over 3 years.
Business proposes undergrad
tuition increase of 54.1% over
2 years.
MBA proposes 78.5% tuition
increase over 3 years.
up to 79%
tuition hike

Tuition Hike
McGill proposes raising
Desautels MBA tuition from
$1,672 to $29,500.
(Comparable programs are up
to $70,000 elsewhere.)
Province threatens to penalize
McGill for every MBA student.
+1664%
tuition

Undergraduate Tuition Fees
2009/2010 2010/2011
2009/2010 to
2010/2011
$ current % change
Canada 4,942 5,138 4
Ontario 5,985 6,307 5.4
New Brunswick 5,516 5,516 0
Nova Scotia 5,752 5,495 -4.5
Saskatchewan 5,173 5,431 5
Alberta 5,240 5,318 1.5
Prince Edward
Island
4,969 5,131 3.3
British Columbia 4,706 4,802 2
Manitoba 3,408 3,588 5.3
Newfoundland and
Labrador
2,624 2,624 0
Quebec 2,309 2,415 4.6
Statistics Canada report on university tuition fees,
September 2010

 Students receive “the
not-so-subtle
message... that
education for its own
sake is rather
frivolous.”
 Safer program
choices, thesis topics,
research

Demographics

The Millennials

“The Me Generation
is raising the
Mini-Me Generation”
-- Peg Tyre, Newsweek March 2002
“Bringing Up Adultolescents”

BlackHawk Parents
 Obsessed with safety
 Emergency
notification
systems, SMS
 New extremes of
surveillance…

Webcams on Campus
University of Notre Dame

Webcams on Campus
Rochester Institute of Tech

CUNY Brooklyn

 Horizon
OneSource
“Healthy
Vending
Machines”
 Parents can
check
online
accounts
Emerging Trends

 Morehouse College,
Atlanta holds “parting
ceremony” for parents
at the college gates

Pet-Friendly Dorms
 MIT
 SUNY
 Stephens College
 Mount Allison U

Student Retention
“Carleton Complete”:
 Early warning system
 Centralized online registration ensures
students have all requirements
 Co-curricular transcript
 Hope to boost retention by 3%
Carleton University | Mar 2009

Co-Curricular Transcripts
 WLU (2004?)
 Bishop’s U (2005?)
 uCalgary (Jan 2009)
 Carleton (Jan 2010)
 Acadia (Mar 2010)
 Seneca (Mar 2010)
 uWindsor (Apr 2010)
 uGuelph (May 2010)
 Trent (Nov 2010)

uPhoenix Learning Genome Project
 Open source platform LMS to be built
 Will infer details about students from behaviour
 If they learn best from video, it will feed more video
 If student can’t interpret graphs, it will present
information differently — or connect the student
with a mentor
 “Trying to take the model of personal attention now
only possible in the smallest classrooms, and scale
it to the largest student body in higher education.”
University of Phoenix | Oct 2010

Part-Time Undergraduates
Anne Motte and Saul Schwartz, Are Student Employment and Academic Success Linked?
Canada Millennium Scholarship Foundation Research Note #9, April 2009

Part-time Students
Challenges to:
 Class Scheduling
 Engagement
 Retention
 Academic Success
 Traditional model of immersive ed

Phillip Babcock, Mindy Marks, Leisure College USA: The Decline
in Student Study Time, American Enterprise Institute for Public
Policy Research, August 2010.
We base our analysis on four large data
sets that cover the time periods 1961,
1981, 1987-89, and 2003-2005, and we
have restricted the samples to full-time
students at four-year colleges in the
United States. Each survey asked
students to report the number of hours
per week they spend studying outside
of class. Data for 1961 time use come
from Project Talent, for 1981 from the
National Longitudinal Survey of Youth
(NLSY79), for the late 1980s from the
Higher Education Research Institute
(HERI), and for the post-2000 years
from HERI (2003-2005) and the
National Survey of Student
Engagement (NSSE).[1] Very recent
data (for study times after 2003-2005)
show a similar trend, and the decline we
document here can be replicated using
eight alternative data sets stretching all
the way back to 1928

U.S. Department of Education, NCES, 2000/01 Baccalaureate and Beyond Longitudinal Study (B&B:2000/01).

UNC Greensborough | 2010 | :30

A La Carte Learning
 Extremely customizable workforce
training at Kellogg Community College,
Battle Creek MI
 Courses broken into 1,200 skill “modules”
 Walk-in basis, Unlimited time to
complete, Pay only on completion
 Eg. Machine tooling: 7 different skills in
precision measurement
 Micrometer module: 0.13 credit hours,
takes about 3 hours, and costs $20.94

Degree Modules
 uAlberta is working with the government
 Proposed certificate system: breaking
down current degree programs into
smaller parts
 “building blocks toward a degree”
 To encourage PSE participation, for
students who cannot commit the time or
resources
University of Alberta | Oct 2010

Degree Modules
 uMontreal has reportedly been offering
certificates as building blocks toward
degrees, for years
 uSaskatchewan has undergraduate
certificate programs at the Edwards School
of Business and in Agriculture and Bio-
Resources
 Mount Saint Vincent has been offering
undergraduate certificates and diplomas as
"steps" to a degree

Social Media

“Connecting with the Facebook Generation”
Facebook - founded Feb 2004
active users
minutes/month
work years/year

Facebook - founded Feb 2004
of applicants

of US admission
officers have received
a friend request
from an applicant
(Kaplan Survey, Sept 2009)

visits/month
users
per second
Twitter - founded 2006

of applicants
Twitter - founded 2006

Puppy Tweets
 Sends 1 of 500
canned tweets
when Fido barks
or moves $30

YouTube - founded Feb 2005
visits/month
videos a day
up every minute

YouTube - founded Feb 2005
of applicants

Bad Behaviour

Nov 2010 | www.textsfromlastnight.com

May 2010 | YourOpenBook.org

Pirate Teacher
 May 2007 –
Millersville U student
was denied
education degree
because of photo on
MySpace promoting
underage drinking
 Dec 2008 – Judge
denied her appeal
Academica’s Top Ten | May 2007

 Chris Avenir, first-year engineering
student at Ryerson
 Moderated a Facebook study group
 Threatened with expulsion
Academica’s Top Ten | Mar 2008

 Made international headlines
 Got a zero on the assignment,
disciplinary note on his file,
but was not expelled

 Nursing student Nina Yoder
posted “how I witnessed the
miracle of life” to her MySpace
profile
 Court called the post “vulgar”
and a failed attempt at humor
 Detail about the patient -
reckless disregard for
confidentiality
 UofL expelled her for violating
student honor code and
confidentiality agreement
 District court ruled UofL
incorrectly interpreted the two
contracts, reversed the
expulsion
 The blog was not
unprofessional, but “non-
professional”
 Yoder graduated Oct 2010
Univ of Louisville, KY | Mar 2009

 19-year-old uCalgary student
on 24 months academic
probation for comments on the
wall of a Facebook group
 Criticizing his former instructor
in a law and society class.
 The student, who claims his
comments were neither
threatening nor inaccurate, had
his probation reduced to 6
months after he appealed.
 The student says he got a "raw
deal" because the instructor was
allegedly in a relationship with
the program head, who took part
in deliberations for the discipline.
Univ of Calgary | Aug 2008

 June 2010: Students
sued uCalgary for
violating freedom of
speech rights
 Oct 2010: Alberta
court of Queen’s Bench
rules UofC did infringe
on student’s charter
rights – “the university
is not a charter-free
zone”
Univ of Calgary | Aug 2008

Nov 2010 | www.socialmediasobrietytest.com

Feedback
Whether you want it or not…

Drake University, Des Moines Iowa
August 2010

Deree College, Greece | Dec 2009

318 Members318 Members

Emily Carr U | Mar 2009

Academica’s Top Ten | Jul 2009

Parody Photos

Disintermediation

“Educational Disintermediation”
“Universities will move to a superstar
market for teachers in which the very
best teachers use on-line instruction and
TAs to teach thousands of students at
many different universities.”
— Alex Tabarrok,
MarginalRevolution.com

The Jack Welch MBA
 Jack Welch, CEO of GE in the
80s and 90s
 $2 M (12%) stake in
Chancellor University System
LLC
 Bought formerly bankrupt
Myers University (Cleveland)
 The “Jack Welch Institute”
offers a cost-cutting online
MBA - Just $20,000 tuition

 Fox News commentator
Glenn Beck announces
online program, Beck
University
 Courses on US government,
history, economics
 $6.26 per month
Academica’s Top Ten | Jul 2010

Outsourcing

Academica’s Top Ten | Feb 2006
As of October 2010:
 A total of 1,260
students from 40
countries have
been through FIC
 900 FIC grads have
transferred to SFU
 BoG signed a
10-year renewal in
Oct 2010

 5-year agreement
 Senate and BoG not
consulted
 Best facilities taken
 Economics offered
over the objections of
the department

 Navitas negotiating to create
“McMaster University College”
 March 2008 – deal “delayed” due
to further discussions
 Feb 2010 – deal “off” because
McMaster’s success in attracting
domestic students is creating
“pressure on classrooms and
facilities”
 CAUT declares its first “win”
against privatization

 Navitas negotiating with Dal
 Dalhousie Faculty Association
worries “we all stand to lose”
in Navitas partnership
 Navitas recruits students with
generally low academic
standing, lacking the language
skills to pass the TOEFL
 “Back door” into Dal puts a
“massive strain” on our
academic standards

 uWindsor senate votes
against contract with
Study Group International
(Aus) to set up business
prep academy
 Still considering Comp
Sci, Sci, Arts, Social Sci
partnerships with SGI
 Faculty campaigning
against the partnership
Academica’s Top Ten | Jan 2010

 Carleton University in
talks with Navitas to
provide “international
foundation year” (ESL
and prep)
Academica’s Top Ten | May 2010

Bumpy Ride Ahead:
Two Final Thoughts

11 Trends
1. Sustainability
2. eBooks
3. Economy
4. Tuition
5. Demographics
6. Millennials
7. Flexibility
8. Social Media
9. Feedback
10. Disintermediation
11. Outsourcing

Bill Gates:
"We always overestimate the change that
will occur in the next two years and
underestimate the change that will occur
in the next ten. Don't let yourself be
lulled into inaction.”

-- Thomas Homer-Dixon, The Upside of Down

Emerging Trends 2011 - SEMM Forum Halifax - Nov 2010

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