Online interest in Donald Trump and use of digital media in US election 2016 campaign. Comparison of media budget for Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton.

1. ONLINE INTEREST IN TRUMP
AND USE OF DIGITAL MEDIA
IN US ELECTION 2016 CAMPAIGN
DID SOCIAL MEDIA PREDICT TRUMP’S VICTORY?

2. DONALD TRUMP IN INTERVIEW FOR CBS NEWS
(11.12.16)
I’m going to be very restrained, if I use it at all, I’m going to be
very restrained. I find it tremendous. It’s a modern form of
communication. There should be nothing we should be
ashamed of. It’s-- it’s where it’s at. I do believe this, I really
believe that-- the fact that I have such power in terms of
numbers with Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, et cetera, I think it
helped me win all of these races where they’re spending
much more money than I spent. And I won. I think that social
media has more power than the money they spent, and I think
maybe to a certain extent, I proved that.

3. PRESENTATION CONTENT
1. Google analysis
2. Twitter, Instagram, Youtube, Facebook
3. „Copycat” Trump
4. Trump’s communications team
5. Media budget

4. GOOGLE TRENDS ANALYSIS
▸ 5 most popular search this year (2017): 3rd place is Donald
Trump
▸ last 90 days search for „Donald Trump” (blue) vs search for
„Hilary Clinton” (red)

5. TRUMP’S TWITTER ACCOUNT
▸ He mastered Twitter by embracing
immediacy (right now), transparency
(unvarnished expression), and risk
(rather than caution). - director of
the social media analytics lab at the
Scripps College of Communication
at Ohio University, Laeeq Khan
▸ more followers
▸ more posting
▸ started in 2009 (Hilary in 2013)

6. TRUMP’S INSTAGRAM ACCOUNT (DATA FOR 2017)
▸ more followers
▸ more posts
▸ more innovative
▸ and he is still using it!

7. YOUTUBE COMPARISON BY ZEFR COMPANY FOR MAY 2016
variety of content

8. YOUTUBE COMPARISON BY ZEFR COMPANY FOR MAY 2016
▸ negative sentiment is almost equal but postive part is higher for
Trump
▸ less engagement for Hilary
▸ variety of content on Trump’s account
▸ In addition to analyzing videos about the candidates, Zefr looked at
various political issues to see which ones got the most views during
the month. Topping the list for May was criminal justice, followed by
the environment, foreign policy and LGBTQ rights. Lower down the
leader board were government programs, education, healthcare and
immigration.

9. TRUMP’S FACEBOOK PROFILE
▸ Fake news of this nature spread so widely during the campaign,
Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg was criticised for not doing more
to suppress hoaxers. In response he's promised to crack down on fake
news, while at the same time denying fake stories swung the result.
▸ Pro-Trump Macedonia: They helped the baseless story generate over
140,000 shares, reactions, and comments.
▸ Brad Parscale, digital media consultant for Trump: campaign funneled
$90 million to Parscale’s firm, most of which went toward digital
advertising. And Parscale says more of that ad money went to
Facebook than to any other platform. It has helped with fundraising.

10. „COPYCAT” TRUMP: USING SNAPCHAT
▸ Clinton started her Snapchat account
one year before election
▸ In september 2016 Trump is buying
Snapchat filter

11. „COPYCAT” TRUMP: MOBILE APP BASED ON GAMIFICATION
▸ Clinton launched her app in July 2016
▸ Trump’s app lunch in a month

12. COMMUNICATIONS TEAM
Instagram, FB, YT
Twitter

13. MEDIA BUDGET: FOCUS ON DATA AND DIGITAL MEDIA
▸ According to data from iSpot.tv, which tracked national campaign spending from Oct.
18 to Oct. 30, Clinton outspent Trump nationally by $2.1 million, and her national
spots aired almost two and a half times as often as Trump's did. In that two week
period, Trump spent $7.8 million on national TV advertising, running 10 ads a total of
926 times. Clinton spent $9.9 million during that span, running 12 ads a total of 2,397
times.
▸ PARSCALE: Well so, I think there's a good example from both Pennsylvania and
Michigan. We played in some other spots also as I started to see data and started to
track it. We were making thousands of live calls, web tracking, web different surveys
and it was building and it's building what's called models and universes. What we can
start to see is, we're in play in Pennsylvania and play in Michigan. Let's buy in these
areas. Let's buy these DMAs. Let's buy these voter targets. We started to see that move
our direction. And by the Friday before the election, I had predicted that we were
going to win 305 electoral results.

14. MEDIA BUDGET FOR TV (OCTOBER 2016)

15. (NOT) SPENDING ON LOCAL TV ADS
▸ Media forecasting firm Magna originally projected this year's political ad
spend to be 15 percent above 2012, which would have set a new record.
But current forecasts put the ad buy in line with the 2012 campaign.
▸ [Donald Trump] is not nearly spending what Mitt Romney or John
McCain's campaigns did eight years ago - said Mark Fratrik, svp and chief
economist for BIA Kelsey.
▸ When Trump was a candidate in the primaries, he spent very little - said
Letang, evp of global market intelligence for Magna. We thought once
he got the nomination and gained more access to GOP fundraising, he'd
spend closer to what Romney did during his general election [of 2012].
That didn't happen.

16. (NOT) SPENDING ON LOCAL TV ADS
‣ During those two weeks, Trump's ads appeared on TV screens 491 million times nationally,
and had an average view rate of 91.8 percent (meaning 91.8 percent of each ad was
actually watched, on average). Clinton's ads appeared on TV screens 620.6 million times
nationally with an average view rate of 85.8 percent.
‣ It's not surprising that Clinton's view rate is lower, given that she is running more national
ads than Trump and audiences have had more exposure to her spots, and are therefore
paying less attention to them.
‣ Trump is focusing on bigger audiences, with 20 percent of his spending coming during
prime-time hours. Clinton has dedicated 16 percent of her national ad budget to prime
time, but she has spread her ads across more networks and dayparts, especially daytime
and early fringe.
‣ Trump's national ads have been reaching an older audience than Clinton's spots. The
demo breakdown of the audience for Trump's ads is 26.8 percent adults 18-34, 35.8
percent people 35-54 and 37.4 percent people over 55 years old. Clinton is reaching 28.0
percent adults 18-34, 36.2 percent people 35-54 and 35.8 percent people over 55.

17. TRENDING
▸ from YT press site: YouTube has over a billion users–almost a third
of all people on the Internet–and every day, people watch hundreds
of millions of hours of YouTube videos and generate billions of
views. YouTube overall, and even YouTube on mobile alone, reaches
more 18-34 and 18-49 year-olds than any cable network in the U.S.
▸ Comcast, the leader cable television in US in the last 6 years lost
10% of subscribers, and located right behind him Time Warner
Cable 6% in the last 2 years
▸ 42% of young people don’t watch political commercials on tv (via
A New Method for Measuring Political Advertising)

18. SUMMARY
▸ Overall, online interest in candidate Trump was 3 times
higher than Clinton, according to Google trends analysis.
Trump was the most Googled candidate, and also most
mentioned on Twitter and Facebook.
▸ Clinton’s social media engagement increased somewhat
by the third debate (october 2016)
▸ Trump’s communications team have focused on data
analysis and digital media

19. DUDA AS TRUMP ON SOCIAL MEDIA?
▸ very innovative form
of communication
▸ using social media,
f.ex. Instagram
▸ „master of hashtags
and selfie”

20. KOMOROWSKI: LACK OF NEW MEDIA EXPERIENCE
▸ cardinal errors in using
social media
▸ 3rd person
▸ lack of activity in new
media „by himself” (only
stuff is running profiles
and it’s obvious)

21. SOURCES
▸ http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/trump-has-more-twitter-chatter-swing-states-its-not-all-positive-174508
▸ http://www.adweek.com/news/television/donald-trumps-lack-ad-spend-leaving-hole-local-medias-pocket-174142
▸ http://www.adweek.com/news/television/donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-have-been-wooing-voters-these-ads-174396
▸ http://www.cracked.com/blog/trump-having-twitter-conversations-with-fake-accounts/
▸ http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/technology/306175-trump-won-thanks-to-social-media
▸ http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-donald-trump-family-melania-ivanka-lesley-stahl/
▸ http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/infographic-whos-winning-race-youtube-hillary-clinton-or-donald-trump-171886
▸ http://www.adweek.com/news/television/donald-trump-and-hillary-clinton-have-been-wooing-voters-these-ads-174396
▸ http://www.recode.net/2016/7/24/12266026/hillary-clinton-campaign-mobile-app
▸ http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/map-i-voted-social-posts-makes-election-seem-very-close-and-very-odd-174507
▸ https://ballotpedia.org/Donald_Trump_presidential_campaign_key_staff_and_advisors,_2016
▸ http://www.npr.org/2016/11/08/500686320/did-social-media-ruin-election-2016
▸ https://www.buzzfeed.com/craigsilverman/how-macedonia-became-a-global-hub-for-pro-trump-misinfo?utm_term=.tbn0eXx10#.rw2MegRwM
▸ https://www.youtube.com/yt/press/en-GB/statistics.html
▸ IAB Polska, raport Konsumpcja treści online, Warszawa 2016, s. 34
▸ https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2108108
▸ https://www.wired.com/2016/11/facebook-won-trump-election-not-just-fake-news/
▸ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/16/trump_digital_director_brad_parscale_explains_data_that_led_to_victory_on_kelly_file.html

22. THANK YOU
KATARZYNA CZEŻYK