1. All-Island Atlas
Workshop 1 –
Economy & Labour Force
Justin Gleeson
Cavan,
Cavan 30/01/14
Outline
• Labour Market
• Participation and Unemployment Rates
• Industry of Employment
• Occupations
• FDI and SMEs
• Where we work
1

2. Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status (Q3, 2013)
RoI (‘000)
NI (‘000)
AI (‘000)
Pop
P 15+/16+
3,592.8
3 592 8
1,430
1 430
5,022.8
5 022 8
Labour Force
2,182.1
868
3,050.1
Employed
1,899.3
803
2,702.3
282.9
65
347.9
1,410.7
562
1,972.7
13%
7.5%
11.4%
60.7%
60.7%
60.7%
Unemployed
Non-Labour Force
Unemployment Rate
Participation Rate
(Labour Force as a percentage of population 15+/16+)
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
•
Participation Rate 2002 to 2013
66.0
64.7
65.0
64.2
63.9
64.0
ILO Par
rticipation Rate Pop 15+/16+
63.1
63.0
62.3
61.6
62.0
61.0
60.6
61.5
61.0
60.8
60.4
60.7
61.3
60.0
59.9
59.4
58.8
60.0
60.2
59.9
59.8
59.7
59.0
58.9
58 9
58.0
57.0
56.0
55.0
Q3 2002
Q3 2003
Q3 2004
Q3 2005
Q3 2006
Q3 2007
RoI
NI
Q3 2008
Q3 2009
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q3 2012
Q3 2013
AI
(Labour Force as a percentage of population 15+/16+)
2

3. Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
•
Participation Rate 2002 to 2013
75.0
70.0
ILO Pa
articipation Rate Pop 15+/16+
68.1
65.0
63.1
60.8
60.6
64.7
63.9
64.2
62.3
61.6
61.0
61.3
61.5
60.7
60.0
59.4
59.9
58.8
60.0
59.8
59.9
59.8
59.7
58.9
60.4
60.2
55.0
53.6
50.0
45.0
Q3 2002
Q3 2003
Q3 2004
Q3 2005
Q3 2006
RoI
Q3 2007
NI
AI
Q3 2008
Q3 2009
AI Male
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
Q3 2012
Q3 2013
AI Female
(Labour Force as a percentage of population 15+/16+)
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
•
Unemployment Rate 2002 to 2013
–
ILO Unemployment must satisfy three conditions: not working in the
previous week, available for work, and actively looking for work
20.0
18.0
15.1
16.0
15.0
ILO Unem
mployment Rate
14.1
14.0
13.0
12.9
12.0
11.4
10.0
7.1
8.0
6.0
4.0
5.7
5.9
7.6
5.2
4.6
4.4
4.9
4.4
4.8
6.6
4.7
7.5
Q3 2012
Q3 2013
4.5
4.2
4.2
7.8
6.9
2.0
0.0
Q3 2002
Q3 2003
Q3 2004
Q3 2005
Q3 2006
Q3 2007
RoI
NI
Q3 2008
AI
Q3 2009
Q3 2010
Q3 2011
(Unemployed as % of Labour Force)
3

4. Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
•
International Comparisons - Unemployment Rate Sept/Aug 2013
30.0
27.6
27 6
26.6
25.0
ILO Unemployment Rate
20.0
17.2 17.1
16.3
14.0 13.6
13.1
15.0
12.5 12.2
11.9
11.3 11.1 11.0
10.4 10.2 10.1
10.0
8.9
89
8.3 8.1 8.0
7.6 7.5 7.5 7.1
7.0 7.0
6.4 5.9
5.2 4.9
5.0
0.0
(Unemployed as % of Labour Force)
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
•
Unemployment Rate 2002 to 2013 – Male v Female
20.0
18.0
ILO Unemp
ployment Rate - Male v Female
16.0
15.1
15.3
15.4
14.0
13.3
14.0
12.0
10.0
6.0
4.0
9.7
7.6
8.0
5.7
57
5.0
4.4
4.3
9.9
Q3 2011
Q3 2012
9.1
8.9
7.8
5.1
4.8
3.8
4.0
Q3 2004
Q3 2005
5.1
4.9
4.4
4.2
4.9
2.0
0.0
Q3 2002
Q3 2003
Q3 2006
Q3 2007
AI Male
Q3 2008
Q3 2009
Q3 2010
Q3 2013
AI Female
(Unemployed as % of Labour Force
4

5. Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
•
Long term Unemployed
–
Long term unemployed (12 months+) as % of total unemployed
70.0
62.5
59.0
56.9
51.4
50.0
48.5
46.4
47
45
42.5
39.8
38.1
40.0
42.7
37.3
40.3
35.5
35 5
34.3
30.0
34.3
29.4
33.4
29.4
30.1
29.8
24.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
2002Q2
2003Q2
2004Q2
2005Q2
2006Q2
Ireland
2007Q2
Northern Ireland
2008Q2
2009Q2
United Kingdom
2010Q2
2011Q2
2012Q2
2013Q2
EU 28
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
•
Long term Unemployed
–
Long term unemployed (12 months+) as % of total unemployed
80.0
70.7
70.0
Long term Une
employment Rate - Q2, 2013
Long term Un
nemployment Rate
60.0
60.0
65.5 65.1
59.0
56.4 56.1 55.7
51.4
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
49.5 49.3 48.8 48.5
47.1 47.0 47.0 46.3
45.4 44.4
42.8 42.2 42.1
40.8 40.2
37.3 36.5 36.1
28.7
25.2
25 2 24.4
17.1 16.8
10.0
0.0
5

6. Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
•
20.0
Unemployment Rate at Regional Level – NUTS III
18.7
18 7
17.4
18.0
17.0
ILO Unem
mployment Rate - NUTS III
16.0
16.0
15.1
13.7
14.0
12.4
12.3
12.0
9.6
10.0
9.2
8.0
8.0
6.0
6.0
4.8
4.0
2.0
0.0
Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
•
Unemployment Rate relative change ‘06 to ‘12, Regional NUTS III
+/- in Unemployment Rate '06 to '12- NUTS III
350.0
331.8
300.0
250.0
274.7
245.7
265.0
257.7
222.2
200.0
172.4
152.0
152 0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
6

7. Labour Market
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
•
Unemployment Rate relative change ‘06 to ‘12, Regional NUTS III
+/- in Unemploym
ment Rate '06 to '12- NUTS III
120.0
99.9
100.0
80.0
60.0
52.0
40.0
34.0
34 0
32.7
32 7
25.1
20.0
0.0
Labour Market – Mapping at Local Level
• International Labour Organisation (ILO) economic status
•
Local level unemployment analysis
–
Census NI: ILO (three conditions – not working previous week,
available and looking for work)
–
Census RoI: Principal Economic Status (single census question: at work,
unemployed, homemaker etc)
•
Re-classification undertaken by CSO to adjust PES unemployment rates to
ILO rates
–
PES V ILO from Regional level QNHS results (2002 and 2011)
–
2002 Census results available for PES and ILO at ED level
»
2011 ED PES/ILO distribution
»
Translated PES to ILO of every SA within parent ED
7

8. Labour Market - Unemployment
• 2011 ILO (NI) v PES (RoI)
• NI: 6.9%
• RoI: 19%
Labour Market - Unemployment
• 2011 ILO (NI) v ILO (RoI)
• NI: 6.9%
• RoI: 15%
8

9. Labour Market - Unemployment
Labour Market - Unemployment
9

10. Labour Market - Unemployment
Male
Female
Industry of Employment
• Industry of Employment
•
General Industrial Classification of Economic Activity – NACE Rev 2
–
–
•
Industry of where a person is engaged
Occupation deals with particular work performed
Small Area level data
–
Northern Ireland – NACE Rev 2
–
Republic of Ireland – NACE Rev 1 (time series)
»
–
Reclassifed by CSO to NACE Rev 2
18 C t
Categories (i l di ‘Oth ’)
i (including ‘Other’)
»
Agriculture, Mining, Manufacturing, Construction, Wholesale/Retail,
IT&Comm, Finance, Defence/Police, Education, Health, Transport.......
–
Residence based, not type of industry in an area
»
POWSCAR, Origin-Destination
10

11. Industry of Employment
• Industry of Employment
•
2.6m in employment on the island in 2011
–
1.8m RoI (70%)
–
795k NI (30%)
450000
Industry of Em
mployment, 2011
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Industry of Employment
• Industry of Employment
•
2.6m in employment on the island in 2011
–
1.8m RoI (70%)
–
795k NI (30%)
20
18
Industry of Employment, 2011
f
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
NI
RoI
11

12. Industry of Employment
• Retail & Wholesale etc
•
•
RoI: 262,206 (14.5%)
•
–
NI: 139,384 (17.5%)
All-Island: 401,590 (16%)
More people work in this this sector than
any other
•
Cities not the highest!
•
Newtownabbey, Coleraine, Craigavon
and Li b
d Lisburn the hi h t >19%
th highest 19%
•
Dublin City, DLR the lowest
Industry of Employment
• Retail & Wholesale etc
•
Dublin v Belfast
12

13. Industry of Employment
• Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
•
•
RoI: 91,526 (5%)
•
–
NI: 17,822 (2.2%)
All-Island: 109,348 (4.3%)
Big increase in Agri jobs in RoI,
+10% since 2006
–
Cavan, Monaghan and S-Tipp the
highest
–
Moyle d St b
M l and Strabane highest in NI
hi h t i
Industry of Employment
• Construction
•
•
RoI: 87,371 (4.8%)
•
–
NI: 65,059 (8.2%)
All-Island: 152,430 (6.1%)
Major drop off in RoI since ‘06
•
–
Decline of 125k jobs (-58% )
Magherafelt, Limavady and Newry
highest >13%
–
Monaghan, Wexford, Meath and
Cavan highest in RoI
13

14. Industry of Employment
• Information and Communications
•
•
RoI: 68,531 (3.8%)
•
–
NI: 20,267 (2.5%)
All-Island: 88,798 (3.5%)
Change in this sector
•
•
–
Telecomms -20%
Computer related +14.5%
Very strong linkages with cities and
commuter areas
Industry of Employment
14

15. Industry of Employment
• Manufacturing
•
•
RoI: 183,692 (10.2%)
•
–
NI: 77,072 (9.7%)
All-Island: 260 764 (10.4%)
All I l d 260,764 (10 4%)
Some areas very dependent on this
sector
•
Dungannon, Waterford (City and
County), Craigavon and
Cookstown
•
Parts of Donegal, Limerick/Kerry,
Monaghan
Industry of Employment
• Professional, scientific and technical
•
Legal, Accounting, Technical
consultancy, R&D, Advertising etc
•
•
RoI: 5.1% (60,716)
•
–
NI: 4.6% (36,277)
All-Island: 4.9% (129,145)
High concentrations in cities
•
DLR, Dublin City, Belfast, Wicklow
and North Down the highest
15

16. Industry of Employment
Occupation
• Occupation of Employment
•
Based on UK Standard Occupational Classification
–
Modifications to adjust the Irish labour market conditions
–
Occupation classification is determined by the kind of work he/she
performs
»
Nature of the industry/business/service has no bearing on
classification
»
‘Clerk’ covers a person employed in manufacturing, commerce,
banking, public admin etc
• Persons ‘At Work’ by Occupation in NI
• Persons ‘At Work’ or ‘Unemployed’ by Occupation in RoI
–
Re-classified for ‘At Work’ only
–
Some confidentiality issues, data compressed at SA level
16

17. Occupation
• Occupation of Employment
•
Based on UK Standard Occupational Classification
–
Breakdown of 9 classifications at ‘Broad level’
500000
450000
Occu
upation, 2011
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Occupation
• Occupation of Employment
•
Based on UK Standard Occupational Classification
–
Breakdown of 9 classifications at ‘Broad level’
25
Occup
pation, 2011
20
15
10
RoI
5
NI
0
17

18. Occupations
• Managers, Directors & Senior Officials
•
•
RoI: 9.1% (152, 440)
•
–
NI: 8% (63,900)
All-Island: 8.7% (216,340)
Mostly living in close proximity to Dublin
and Belfast
•
DLR, Wicklow, Fingal, Kildare, North
Down, Lisburn
Occupations
18

19. Occupations
• Professional Occupations
•
•
RoI: 19.5% (325, 832)
•
–
NI: 17.2% (136,406)
All-Island: 18.75% (462, 238)
Highest Occupation grouping
•
–
8 Districts/Counties > 20%
More urban centre based with highest rates
in DLR, Galway City, Dublin City, Belfast,
Cork City
–
Also high in commuter areas
Occupations
19

20. Occupations
• Skilled Trades
•
•
RoI: 15.4% (256,212)
15 4% (256 212)
•
–
NI: 14% (111,502)
All-Island: 14.9% (367,714)
Largest rural occupation grouping
•
–
21 Districts/Counties > 20%
Cavan, Kerry, Monaghan, Magherafelt,
Mayo, Cookstown the highest
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
• IDA Ireland (762 companies)
–
346 (45%) located in Dublin
»
388 (51%) located in GDA
–
101 (13%) in Cork
–
63 (8.3%) located in Border region
» ¼ of these in Louth
• Invest NI (830 companies)
i )
–
Includes RoI companies 275 (33%)
–
No location data available as yet
–
IDBR (£££)
20

21. SMEs
•
Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs)
•
•
•
Small <50 employees
Medium 50 to < 250 employees
RoI
•
189,753 SMEs in 2010
–
–
•
98.7% Small
1.27% Medium
NI
•
67,765 SMEs in 2012
–
98.5% Small
–
1.5% Medium
SMEs
•
Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs)
•
•
•
Small <50 employees
Medium 50 to < 250 employees
RoI
•
189,753 SMEs in 2010
–
–
•
98.7% Small
1.27% Medium
NI
•
67,765 SMEs in 2012
–
98.5% Small
–
1.5% Medium
21

22. Travel to Work
• POWSCAR
•
Place of Work, School or College
Census of Anonymised Records
2.78m O-D trips
•
–
–
1.01m students
1.77m workers
•
SA/ED to 250M grid/SA/ED
•
Catchments to Cities/Towns
– 457k working in Dublin City
Travel to Work
• POWSCAR
•
•
Place of Work, School or College
Census of Anonymised Records
2.78m O-D trips
–
–
1.01m students
1.77m workers
•
SA/ED to 250M grid/SA/ED
•
Catchments to Cities/Towns
– 457k working in Dublin City
– Catchments to Meath Towns
Destinations in NI (6,419)
– 250m grid/OA/WARD
g
» Derry/Londonderry 40%
» Newry City 6%
» Enniskillen 4%
» Strabane 4%
» Belfast City 7.5%
•
22

23. All-Island Atlas
Thanks
Questions?
w: www.airo.ie
e: justin.gleeson@nuim.ie
twitter: airo_nuim
23

24. Launch of Mapping Toolkit
•
Launch of digital All-Island Atlas
•
•
Integration into new AIRO site and ICLRD site
Continued development and additional layers
Launch of Mapping Toolkit
•
Launch of All-Island Atlas
•
•
Integration into new AIRO site and ICLRD site
AIRO Data Store
24

25. Data Days - QGIS
6th March – Planning
3rd April – Economy
Two additional open invite days at AIRO, NUIM
Hard back Atlas
Housing seminar (NUIM), Health seminar (CCBS), Deprivation (NUIM)
25

26. Thanks
Questions?
w: www.airo.ie
e: justin.gleeson@nuim.ie
twitter: airo_nuim
26