1. Title
Sydney CBD and South East Light Rail
Operational Traffic Modelling – Did We Get It Right?
2. Overview
• Overview
• Modelling Approach and Model Application
• Operational Assessment – Did we get it right so far?
• Lessons Learnt
3. Overview
• Sydney CBD faces challenges
– 330,000 jobs are located in Sydney CBD
(14 percent of all Sydney jobs)
– 630,000 trips are made into the city centre
on a typical weekday
– Almost 25% of trips to and from the CBD
are made by private vehicles due to
convenience
Pressure on Transport Network
4. Overview
• To respond to challenges, Sydney is undergoing major
transformation with a number of significant transport
infrastructure projects
WestConnex
Sydney CBD and South East Light Rail
Sydney Metro Northwest
Parramatta Light Rail
Western Harbour Tunnel
Bus Network Changes
5. Overview
• Sydney CBD and South East Light Rail
(CSELR)
– Twelve kilometer route between Circular Quay
and Kingsford and Randwick
– Pedestrianised zone on George Street between
Hunter and Bathurst Streets
7. CSELR Modelling – Why model it ?
• To provide inputs for other
assessments
• To assist decision making
process and improve
strategies
• To forecast what might
happen in the future and
to avoid this…..
January 2015 – Bus and Traffic Congestion on
SHB due to Construction Works in the CBD
10. Model Application - Forecast Validation
• George Street Construction
Closures
• October 2015 - New CBD Bus
Plan Introduction
11. Model Application – Forecast Validation
• Typical Sydney CBD Cordon Traffic Profile
– Over a number of years, the morning peak has had 20-
25,000 inbound vehicle trips
12. Forecast Validation – Did we get it right?
• This is what happened on the day
Despite the George Street closures, overall vehicle numbers (inbound and
outbound) were comparable to a typical weekday.
13. Forecast Validation – Did we get it right?
• This is what the model showed
Outbound AM PeakInbound AM Peak
• Accurate
replication of
inbound volumes
(within 2%) and
patterns
• Outbound volumes
lower by 16%
14. Forecast Validation – Did we get it right?
• Congestion hot spots identified by the model
AM Peak PM Peak
• Clarence St/Margaret
St/York St in the AM
Peak
• Hay St/Pitt St and Hay
St/Castlereagh St in the
PM
15. Forecast Validation – Did we get it right?
• Congestion hot spots in reality
The worst intersections as reported by the Sydney Morning Herald…………and the public
16. Operational Assessment – Did we get it right?
• Redirection of traffic to other alternative
north-south routes, mainly College St,
Elizabeth St and Sussex St
• Reduction in volumes on some east-
west corridors, mainly Bridge St,
Bathurst St, Liverpool St
• This is what the model showed – AM Peak
17. Operational Assessment – Did we get it right?
• This is what happened on the day – AM Peak
• Increase in volumes along College St (both
directions) as well as Macquarie St
• Reduction in volumes on York St
• Increase in volumes on Castlereagh St
• Some reduction in number of east-west trips
along Bathurst St and Liverpool St
• Reduction in traffic volumes along
Grosvenor St and Bridge St eastbound
• Increase in volumes on Elizabeth Street
(northbound)
18. Lessons Learnt
• The model has become an extremely useful tool to
supported different stages of the project but it
cannot substitute common sense.
• It has become very complex.
• Changeable traffic arrangements and travel
patterns makes the development of an accurate
‘base model’ almost impossible.
