Highlights of the EIU webinar (4 March 2014) on China's urbanisation and the economic opportunities and threats it may bring about.

1. China’s Urban Dreams
Highlights
of
the
04
March
2014
EIU
Webinar
50+ YEARS OF EXPERIENCE & KNOWHOW IN CHINA BUSINESS

2. URBANIZATION
!
Urbanisa(on
will
not
be
equal
! Most
recent
es*mate:
940
billion
urban
dwellers
by
2030
! Biggest
provincial
gainers:
Guangdong,
Henan,
Hebei
! Urbanisa*on
rate
will
vary
between
the
regions
(East,
North-­‐East,
Central,
West)
in
the
range
of
<60
to
>70%,
East
and
North-­‐East
leading
the
pack
! In
some
provinces
(Yunnan,
Guizhou
etc.)
urbanisa*on
will
hardly
reach
50%
when
excluding
the
provincial
capital

3. ECONOMIC BENEFITS
!
Urbanisa(on
could
help
to
sustain
China’s
economic
growth
! Urban
economies
more
produc*ve
than
rural
ones
! Consump*on
supported
by
higher
income
levels
! Provide
fruiXul
avenues
for
investment

4. ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES
!
China’s
urbanisa(on
presents
huge
opportuni(es
! Consumer
good
demand
will
boom
! Services
such
as
educa*on
and
healthcare
will
be
in
high
demand
! Urban
infrastructure
and
property
! Logis*cs
and
e-­‐commerce

5. ECONOMIC THREATS
!
Over-­‐planning
could
sabotage
the
process
! Focus
on
small
and
medium-­‐sized
ci*es
risks
running
against
market
forces
! Investment
beyond
level
that
demographic
trends
will
support
risks
waste
! Urban
popula*on
boom
is
short-­‐term:
already
slowing
trend
in
urban
popula*on
growth
! Growth
post-­‐2030
will
be
delivered
by
other
emerging
markets

6. RESOURCES ALLOCATION
!
Resources
need
to
be
allocated
to
regions
that
will
see
a
popula(on
boom
! Significant
variance
in
regional
and
city
popula*on
projec*ons
! Huge
demand
for
so^
and
hard
infrastructure
in
major
ci*es
! Fiscal
reform
cri*cal
as
financing
is
lacking
! Awareness
of
local
level
governments’
plans
is
important

7. RESOURCES ALLOCATION
!
What
is
your
target
market
of
choice?

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