160604-Future of Robotics_presented

Presentation
Amazon Campus Munich, June 4, 2016
Joerg Seufert
The future of
robotics – building
a growth story
for tomorrow
QX Leadership Conference

2160604-Future of Robotics_presented.pptx
Contents Page
A. Setting the scene | Robots in the Industrie 4.0 playing field 3
B. Industrial robots – what's going on? 9
B. Co-bots – a new species evolves … 16
C. Service bots – robots taking over … 23
E. Q&A 27

A. Setting the scene |
Robots in the Industrie
4.0 playing field

The ongoing developments in the global robotics market will
irreversibly change society and the way we work
"I saw huge rising numbers of demand in all fields of robotics
and automation, 10-15%. I see an increasing market share of the
robot – first in addition to workers, then replacing them",
Italian Customer
Selected market feedback
Europe/North America China
"The robotic companies
currently cannot fulfil the global
demand – There is more
demand than supply. The
market in Europe is more
saturated",
German Robotics Company
"Automation solutions will
be influenced by environ-
mental and eco-sustainability
factors. Growing >15% in
Europe within the next 4-5
years.",
Italian Competitor
"I am convinced that the robot
market will continue to grow
at >10% for the next five
years",
German Competitor
"We expect that the US robot
market will grow at >15%
p.a. – 3D printing will be the
future of the robot sector",
US Competitor
Source: Interviews with market participants; Roland Berger
"To implement 'China Manufacturing 2025' strategy, huge
amount of resources will be invested into automation for all
kinds of manufacturing fields", Chinese customer
"To save labor cost and
improve work quality, more
industries will use
automation equipment;
we expect the market to
grow 20-30% per year
for next 5 years",
Chinese competitor
"Robot sales increased by
nearly 30% worldwide. China
gains some market share",
German Competitor in
China
"The China robot market is
expected to grow 5 times
bigger than today's market
(2015) in the next 10 years",
Japanese Competitor in
China
"In answering 'China
Manufacturing 2025', many
companies are upgrading
their manufacturing
equipment/systems, the
growth should be over
20% annually for next
5 years",
German Customer in China

Mechanization, electrification and computerization has already
influenced our working world radically – Industrie 4.0 is the next step
Development stages of industrial manufacturing
Source: Bitkom/Fraunhofer, DFKI, Roland Berger
1784
Mechanical
weaving loom
Introduction of
mechanical produc-
tion assets based
on water and steam
power
Time
First industrial
revolution
Impact of each
Revolution
> Introduction of
new products
and means of
producing existing
ones
> Disruption of the
competitive status
quo (both within
and between
countries and
enterprises)
> New requirements
to workforce and
infrastructure
1923
Introduction of a
"moving" assembly
line at Ford Motors
Introduction of mass
production based on
division of labor and
electrical energy
Second industrial
revolution
1969
First programmable
logic controller
(PLC)
Introduction of
electronics and IT for
higher automatization
of production
Third industrial
revolution
2016
Real time, self opti-
mizing connected
systems
Fourth industrial
revolution?
So far
< 10%
advanced

Industrie 4.0 is the full integration and digitalization of the industrial
value creation
Source: Plattform Industrie 4.0, MIT Sloan Management Review, Roland Berger
Industrie 4.0 – Overview
> Digital transformation refers to the changes
associated with the application of digital
technologies in all aspects of human society
> Industrie 4.0 is the industrial application of the
concepts applied in the digital transformation,
key elements are:
– Complete connectivity with real-time ability
– Decentralized, intelligent and self optimizing/
organizing
– Modular and reconfigurable
> Assessment of Industrie 4.0 impact needs to take
analogies from digital transformation and
specifics of the manufacturing industry into account
> The digital transformation in the consumer goods
sector is much more advanced than the industrial
application
Digital transformation
Industrie 4.0
Mobile devices
E-Commerce
Car sharing
Apps
Contactless pay
Home robotics
Wearables
Smart Home
Cloud data
Smart handbooks
Private robots
Self-learning
robots
Predictive
Maintenance
Self-
optimizing
systems

In the future "Factory 4.0" cyber physical systems will connect the
industrial value chain end-to-end and beyond
Source: Roland Berger
SUPPLIERS
PLANT OF THE FUTURE A
3D PRINTING /
ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING
SENSORS
NANOTECHNOLOGY /
ADVANCED MATERIALS
> Zero default/deviation
> Reactivity
> Traceability
> Predictability
> Scrap elimination
> Mass customization
> Rapid prototyping
> Smart value added products
> Technical differentiation
> Connectivity
ROBOT
CLOUD
COMPUTING
> Stronger protection for internet
based manufacturing
> Technology products with
longer life cycle
CYBERSECURITY
> Give sense to complexity
> Creativity
> Collaborative manufacturing
> Cyber Physical Systems (CPS)
> Numerical command
– Full automation
– Totally interconnected systems
– Machine to machine communication
LOGISTICS 4.0
> Fully integrated
supply chain
> Interconnected systems
> Perfect coordination
BIG DATA
ADVANCED
MANUFACTURING
SYSTEMS
CLIENTS
AUTONOMOUS
VEHICLE
> Customer & marketing intimacy
> Flexibility
> Perfect match with customer's
needs with production mass
efficiency
> On demand manufacturing
MASS
CUSTOMIZATION
INTERNET OF THINGS
> Object tagging
> Internet-object
communication via low power
radio
> Real time data capture
> Optimized stocks
> Reduced wastes
> Real time - Autonomy - Productivity
> Full transparency (contextualization,
comprehensiveness, collaborative
robot) on data reporting
> Flow optimization
> Increased security
> Lower costs
RESOURCES OF THE FUTURE
WIND ALTERNATIVE / NON CONVENTIONAL SOLAR GEOTHERMIC
> Clean and renewable energies
everywhere
> Energy Storage
> Alternative raw materials
Factory 4.0 – Overview

Robots, co-bots and service bots – building tomorrow's business by
enabling human robot collaboration and self-steered assembly
Source: Roland Berger
Today Tomorrow
Industrial Robots Human Machine
Collaboration/collaborative
robots (co-bots) for handling
applications
Service robots for logistics/
mobile platforms (mobile
manipulators)
1 2 3

B. Industrial robots –
what's going on?

On the Hannover Fair a demonstrator of a fully integrated, self-
steering assembly system had been presented
Use case: Open Integrated Factory
Features
Source: SAP; Festo; Roland Berger
Integration of assembly technology, cyber-
physical devices, IT and connectivity into
a self-steering production system
> Demonstrator line TV-remote controls and metering devices
> Integrated "top floor to shop floor" IT
> Connectivity on automation level based on open message & technology
standards
> Fully integrated end-to-end data stream from customer order to parameter
transfer to PLC
> No host required as control level between order mgmt. and assembly line
(i.e. no double data storage. 100% data integrity)
> Products carry data on their specific configuration on RFID tag and
communicate directly with de-central intelligent workstations
> Line energy optimization with smart metering & grid technology
> Sensor data on workstation level used for predictive maintenance
Achievements
> Full automated batch 1 assembly of different products in multiple variants
> Mass manufacturing benefits in production and control but individualized
execution
> Demonstrator to study integration challenges upfront to application
Concept
Partner
companies

The market for robots will grow at 19% p.a. globally – Highest
growth expected in China
Industrial robot demand development by region and industry, 2013-2018F [units k]
78
115
19439
59
104
25
39
38
59
43
27
27
181
2013 2015
264
Other
439
2018F
Automotive
Chemical/
Plastic
Metal/
Machinary
Electronics
20
17
46
68
11835
51
83
26
36
57
75
109
181
2013
181
Rest
of World
China
Europe
439
2018F
North
America
264
2015
Source: MarketsandMarkets; Roland Berger
Total
c.16%
c.17%
c.21%
c.19%
c.16%
c.19%
CAGR
2015-2018F
c.19%
CAGR
2015-2018F
Total
c.17%
c.18%
c.20%
c.19%
Historical Forecast Historical Forecast
By industryBy region

Growth in China is further fueled by a decreasing payback period for
robots with declining unit prices and increasing labor cost
Source: Robotic Market Study
> In 2013, falling
investment cost
(purchasing prices) for
robots and rising wages
approached in inflection
point for a payback
period of 2 years, making
robots attractive for
Chinese SMEs
> Substitution of human
labor becomes more
attractive from an
economical point of view
Net staff replaced by 1 robot: 3, Depreciation: 10 year replacement cycle assumed, Maintenance cost: 10% of purchase price p.a. assumed
73 80 93 110 125 158 180
459
499 490
409
359
263 236 213
135
3641495045
Sav.Inv.
289
26
134
9
Inv.
395
Sav.
120
10
Sav.
450
5.2
1.31.7
2.2
3.7
Sav.
105
Inv.
12
Inv.
539
Sav.
92
12
Inv.
549
Sav.
84
11
Inv.
504
6
Inv.
260
24
8.7
11.6
11.8
Sav.
185
5
Inv.
234
21
Sav.
164
Labor cost saved p.a. Depreciation savedMaintenance costAv. Robot price Cash payback period in years
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Example from the Chinese market – Robot cost and annual labor cost savings [RMB k]

APAC will further expand its dominance in the industrial automation
and robotics markets
Source: IHS; IFR; Roland Berger
Regional split of industrial automation and robotics [%]
Industrial automation equip.
Revenues, today
Industrial robotics
Installed base, today
Industrial robotics
New deliveries, today
APAC: 41% APAC: 53% APAC: 61%
RoW/
Unspecified
2%Americas
17%
Europe
28%
Other APAC
8% S. Korea
12%
China13%
Japan
20%
RoW/
Unspecified
5%Americas
14%
Europe
20%
Other APAC
12%
S. Korea
11%
Japan
13%
China
25%
9%
Japan
APAC
32%
Americas
25%
EMEA
34%

Key trends by industry
Industry Trends Impact
Automotive > Retooling for new car models, capacity expansions, new materials, energy efficiency,
modernization and Industrie 4.0
> Increased penetration of automation in the automotive assembly process (human
robotic collaboration as driver)
Electronics > Increased automation of production and assembly of electronics parts due to high
precision needs (micro meter)
> Growing market for high resolution, touch sensitive, and light displays where automated
production is important due to precision and productivity
> Recovering investments in the solar industry where automation is strong driver for
competitiveness
> Rising market of electro mobility requiring investments into cost efficient, high quality
and high precision battery production
Metal > Increased automation of processes with extremely unhealthy working conditions
(e.g. due to high temperatures, dirtiness)
Source: IFR 2015; Roland Berger

Plastics &
chemicals
> Expanding production capacities driven by increased demand for light weight plastics in
order to increase energy efficiency and increased use of plastics as building and
packaging material
> Increased demand for carbon composites which requires new production processes
Source: IFR 2015; Roland Berger
Food &
Beverage
> Increasing diversity of products and demand for high quality require more flexible
production
> Increased modernization and quality improvements of production processes in emerging
markets due to growing demand for non-perishable food
> Demanding sanitation and environmental requirements
Key trends by industry
Industry Trends Impact

C. Co-bots – a new
species evolves …

The development of co-bots represents a solution to a hurdle in
human robot collaboration
> Robots which work along-side with worker w/o fence
> Assistance for day to day job of worker
> Robot can take over hazardous or ergonomically
difficult tasks
> Robot can improve productivity and quality
> Robots are flexible and can switch workplaces quickly
Source: Efficiency Associates; IFR 2015; Roland Berger
Opportunities
Threats/risks
> Automation of processes where traditional
robots were not applicable and/or cost
efficient
> Increase in production flexibility enabling
customization/shorter product life-cycles
> Development of safety standards
> Development of advanced sensing and
gripping – "human like abilities"
Collaborative robots (co-bots) – Overview and prospects
Concept

BMW obtains greater efficiency and flexibility by interactive robots
working with human workers in its factories
Source: BMW, MIT, Roland Berger
Industrie 4.0 solution by
> Robots have been
a part of automotive
manufacturing for
decades
> Key issues:
– Manufacturing
robots are
powerful and
precise, but it’s
never been safe
for humans to
work alongside
them
– A significant
number of final
assembly tasks,
in auto plants and
elsewhere, were
performed almost
entirely by hand
> A new generation of safer, more user-friendly robots works more
closely alongside humans as a team
> Robots can help people in production at hand and remove them hard
physical labor, thus increase production efficiency
> In an Automotive context, collaborative robotics can utilize its power and
mechanical accuracy and to support human workforce healthy for a
long time
Direct human-machine
coop. in serial production
Human
Assembly
Robot
Assembly
Starting point
> With assembly cost
further reducing, Tier-1
suppliers will even more
increasingly need to
focus on full solutions
rather than components
> Suppliers could
potentially differentiate
by designing products in
an assembly friendly
way
Impact
Use case: Interactive robots

Google has developed a software using artificial intelligence to
teach robots how to steer and control picking
Use case: Artificial intelligence

There are two types of co-bots: Light weight robots and two arm
robots
Source: IFR; Company Websites; Roland Berger
Co-bot types
Light weight robots
> Enable man and machine to work closely and safely
together
> Are equipped with enhanced vision and sensor
technology
> Provide flexibility and intuitive and user-friendly
programming
> Can be easily moved to another workstation and take
over another task
Two arm robots
> Work hand-in-hand with people on the same tasks
> Have safety functionality but a risk assessment
to be made for each application
> Have up to 15 axes which can handle payloads
up to 40 kg
> Combine human-like movement with robotic speed,
dexterity, and repeatability

The market for co-bots is expected to grow significantly in the next
years reaching approximately 100 k units in 2025
Market forecast for handling co-bots [# k]
3
1
2021
Material
Handling
25
50
37
3 2
2015
1
CAGR +67%
2025
7
1 1
Machine Tool
Handling
CAGR +28%
CAGR +42%
19
13
Warehousing
9
7
19
7
100
2018
Pick and Place
3
Source: Efficacy Associates; Roland Berger
Collaborative robots (co-bots) – Market potential
> Average co-bot price is 40% below
average price for industrial robot
(USD 29 k vs. USD 47 k)
> Market can be segmented in premium
co-bots (EUR 50-100 k) and simple easy-
to use co-bots (EUR 10-20 k) which stand
for the major share of the market
> Market dominated by start-up Universal
Robots with ~50% market share
> Market leaders for industrial robots
like KUKA, FANUC, Yaskawa entered
the market but have difficulties due to
premium price competition
(factor 2-3 compared to UR)

Automotive is the dominant industry using co-bots with the USA,
China and Japan as the key markets
Source: Efficacy Associates; Roland Berger
Co-bot market by industry and region
Others
18%Life Sciences
2%
Food &
Consumer
Goods
3%
Metal
8%
Automotive
29%
Automotive
Components
40%
5%
8%
USA
7%14%
25%
20%
13%
Germany
Other
Americas
Korea
China
Japan
Other EMEA
Other APAC
8%
Regional split 2015 [%]Industry split 2015 [%]

D. Service bots – robots
taking over …

> AGVs (Automatic Guided Vehicles) are segmented
into
– Carrier types
– Fork types
– Tow types
– Mobile manipulation types
> Decreasing robot arm cost push demand for mobile
manipulators in logistics
> Automotive increasingly integrates mobile
manipulators in their lean/agile manufacturing
concepts which replace conveyor belt and tact
and to secure JIT/JIS deliveries
> Main benefit of robotic solutions for factory logistics
is the reduction of the need for manual workers
Service robotics is a broad area – potential use aims at facilitating or
substituting human labor
Source: IFR Service Robotics 2015; Roland Berger
Mobile Platforms in general use are customizable
multi-purpose platforms (stand-alone components for
the design of highly customized service robot solutions)
which also include gripping applications
Service robotic types
Field robotics
Prof. Cleaning
Insp. & Maintenance
Mobile Platforms
in general use
Logistics Systems
Medical robots
Other
Defense robots

Digitization of manufacturing and technology advancements drive
the demand for automatic guided vehicles (AGVs)
Source: IFR Service Robotics 2015
Technology
advance-
ments
> Performance and flexibility increase of fully autonomous navigation without installed markers
or beacons
> Increased uptimes through smaller recharging cycles as energy storage technology improves
(batteries, super capacitors)
> Increasing positive reputation of AGVs usage (excellent Mean Time Between Failure MTBS rates
and dependability), ease of use, etc.
Growth drivers for AGVs
Driver Description
Digitization > AGVs depend on digital data for their routing and missions
> Breakthrough of digitization and networking environments as addressed by initiatives like
Industrie 4.0, Internet of Things/of Services, Industrial Internet push the acceptance ofAGVs
in target environments
> AGVs can be seen as typical cyber-physical systems

The relevant service robotic market currently has a volume of EUR
300 m and is projected to grow with a CAGR of 24%
111
459
2017F
61
389
450
363
570
2016F
298
2015F
223
280
18
2014
33
330179
214
2013
172
97
CAGR +24%
Logistics
2018F
Mobile
Platforms in
general use
Source: IFR Service Robotics 2015; Roland Berger
1) Includes only segments Logistics and mobile platforms
Professional service robot market1) [EUR m]

E. Q&A
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160604-Future of Robotics_presented

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