Scenario planning to improve exploration - Sykes - Nov 2017 - Centre for Exploration Targeting

1. The Role of Strategic Consulting in the Resources Industries of Australia and Indonesia
My PhDOr: How I Learned To Stop
Worrying And Love Mining
Or: Using Scenario Planning To Improve The Integration
Of Geological, Technical, Economic, Environmental,
Geopolitical, And Socio-political Factors In Minerals
Exploration Management And Strategy
John Sykes1234
1. Centre for Exploration Targeting,School of Earth Sciences, The University of Western Australia
2. Business School, The University of Western Australia
3. MinEx Consulting,Australia
4. Greenfields Research, United Kingdom
16 November 2017
School of Earth Sciences Postgraduate Symposium
Image:Dr. Strangelove(A.V. Club)

2. My PhD Story: Another ‘Man In A Hole’
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
Images:Maya Eilam; Marvel Studios
NB: It usuallyis men in thesestories…
Slide 2 of 35

3. The Origin Story:
The Prediction Menace
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 3 of 35

4. Discovering Problems With Copper Forecasts
In the short-run demand
determines commodity
prices, but over the long-run
it is supply (i.e. mines &
exploration) that determines
commodity prices.*
- Tilton & Guzman, 2016, Mineral
Economics & Policy
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
* This is why CRU employed geologists, such as myself, as
well as mining engineers, metallurgists, etc
Sources: CRU Group
Economists’ fault… (the forecast, not the GFC)
Geologists’ fault… (the forecast and the price?), i.e. me!
Slide 4 of 35

5. Discovering Problems With Copper Projects
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
Sources: CRU Group
Slide 5 of 35

6. Discovering Problems Elsewhere In Minerals
Humphreys (2010) points
out that not only were
commodity price bears
caught out by the impact
of Chinese
industrialisation on
commodity prices in 2005-
6, but that even the
commodity price bulls
underestimated the scale
of the impact on prices. He
also noted that many
mining companies also
did not seem ready for the
increase in demand, as
they struggled to bring on
new supply.
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
More of my
troublesome price
forecasts, this
time in tin..
More troublesome
mine projects that
I was trying to
analyse, this time
in rare earths..
Sources: Humphreys(2010), ITRI, GreenfieldsResearch
Slide 6 of 35

7. My PhD Story: Part 1
A New Hope
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 7 of 35

8. Into Academia: And Back To Copper Projects
My first hypothesis based on all my ‘industry knowledge’…
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
Mine production was falling behind demand… …but explorers were finding plenty of new reserves
…thus it must be a ‘development’ problem!
Source:Sykes & Trench (2014)
Slide 8 of 35

9. From Development To Discovery Constrained
My first hypothesis based on all my ‘industry knowledge’… was probably wrong!
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
Not all resources can be developed economically… …and not all resources can be developed sustainably…
…actually we were ‘discovery constrained and thus had to find better resources!
“…investigate an alternative, less
capital-intensive design of the
Olympic Dam open-pit expansion…
align with the Company’s cost control
strategy in the current economic
environment…”
- BHP Billiton, 6th Dec 2012
“Anglo American has given
notice that it is withdrawing
from the Pebble copper
project in Alaska.”
- Anglo American, 16th Sept 2013
“Rio Tinto gifts stake in
Northern Dynasty Minerals to
Alaskan charities.”
- Rio Tinto, 7th Apr 2014
Slide 9 of 35

10. A Discovery Solution!
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
We can find ‘better’ quality projects… …by looking in new places (or ‘search spaces’)
…by definition, the best discoveries are made first in any given area (as the have the strongest signature)
Source:Sykes (2014)
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11. From Development To Discovery Constrained
My first hypothesis based on all my ‘industry knowledge’… was probably wrong!
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
Explorers were finding low quality resources… …that were prone to socio-political problems…
…thus it was actually a ‘discovery’ problem!
Source:MinExConsulting,Frankset al., (2014)
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12. Suggesting A Simple Three-Stage Solution
All I needed to do was:
1. Calculate which parts of the
existing copper resource were
economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the
existing copper resource were
‘sustainable’ (i.e. socially &
environmentally accessible);
3. Use these criteria as exploration
targets for new discoveries.
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
DISCOVERED
ECONOMICbut
INACCESSIBLE
UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLEbut
ECONOMIC
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE but
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
UNECONOMIC but
ACCESSIBLE
GEOLOGICAL CERTAINTY
ECONOMICFEASIBILITY
DISCOVERED
ACCESSIBLE
and ECONOMIC
(Behind)
DISCOVERED but
INACCESSIBLE
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
INACCESSIBLE
and
UNECONOMIC
UNDISCOVERED
but ACCESSIBLE
ECONOMIC
Source:Sykes (2014)
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13. My PhD Story: Part 2
Complexity Strikes Back
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 13 of 35

14. A Mistake: I Forgot How Complex The Future Is
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
ShareofGlobalCuMineproduction
United Kingdom Chile USA Other
Decline of UK mining,
rise of Americas
Resurrection of
Chilean industry
…in 1898… Bingham Canyon… was something of a joke… only barren quartz rock flecked with a trace of copper. Nobody could
make money out of so little. …the world’s most famous mining man [Chief Engineer for the Guggenheims] turned up his nose. It
was ridiculed by the most respected mining journal of the day. …The shovels started… in June 1906. (Lynch, 2002)
Source:Sykes (2014)
20th century coppermining
technology, innovation &
discovery package
Dynamite
Steam power
The corporation
Mechanisation
Major public
infrastructure
Flotation
Improved smelting &
refining
Airborne
geophysics
Porphyry
geological
model
Better work
practices
SXEW
Computation
Low cost drilling
Globalisation
Forward contracts
Free trade
New geographies
Regime change
Slide 14 of 35

15. Hence The Decision To Use Scenario Planning
Instead for Stage 3, how about:
3. Assess which of the
‘economic & sustainable’
resources would remain
so over the long term
considering appropriate
technical, economic,
environmental and socio-
political uncertainty about
the future (i.e. using
scenario planning).
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
GEOLOGICALCERTAINTY
ECONOMICFEASIBILITY
“ACCESSIBLE
RESERVE”
MULTIPLE
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES”
MULTIPLE
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES”
MULTIPLE
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVES”
“HYPOTHETICAL
RESERVE”
DISCOVERED UNDISCOVERED
Source:Sykes (2014)
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16. My PhD Story: Part 3
Return Of The Uncertainty
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 16 of 35

17. Mistake 2: I Forgot How Different The Future Is
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
Source:Sykes et al., (2016)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1900
1912
1924
1936
1948
1960
1972
1984
1996
2008
Growthin market size indices of copper
and aluminium 1900-2014 (1900 = 1)
Cu Index Al Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1900
1912
1924
1936
1948
1960
1972
1984
1996
2008
Growthin market size indices of copper
and nickel 1900-2013 (1900 = 1)
Cu Index Ni Index
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1950
1957
1964
1971
1978
1985
1992
1999
2006
2013
Growth in market size indices of copper
and uranium 1950-2013 (1950= 1)
Cu Index U Index
Once again analysing other commodity markets was providing validation, but also frustration!
Slide 17 of 35

18. A Man in Metaphorical Theoretical & Practical Hole
1. Calculate which parts of the existing copper
resource were economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the existing copper
resource were ‘sustainable’ (i.e. socially &
environmentally accessible);
3. Assess which of the ‘economic & sustainable’
resources would remain so over the long term
considering appropriate technical, economic,
environmental and socio-political uncertainty
about the future (i.e. using scenario planning).
1. Data difficult to source,* time-consuming
to analyse and already becoming
available from other researchers…
2. Data is non-existent, time-consuming to
gather, requires new (mathematically
complex) methods to analyse and already
becoming available from other
researchers…
3. This just sounds like a really BIG job!
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
Worst of all! I was still looking at current mine projects (i.e. the ideas of
the past) not the genuinely new ‘exploratory’ ideas required!
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19. My PhD Story: Part 4
The Scenarios Awaken
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 19 of 35

20. Another New Plan
1. Calculate which parts of the existing copper
resource were economic;
2. Analyse which parts of the existing copper
resource were ‘sustainable’ (i.e. socially &
environmentally accessible);
3. Assess which of the ‘economic & sustainable’
resources would remain so over the long term
considering appropriate technical, economic,
environmental and socio-political uncertainty
about the future (i.e. using scenario planning).
1. Find a quick way to show that the existing
copper project pipeline is not ‘future
proof’
2. Try to come up with some new ideas for
exploration…
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
Fortunately scenario planning is suitable for testing strategic
‘adaptability’ and for new idea generation
?
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21. Using Scenario Planning To Test Adaptability
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
ECONOMICMARGINS
Increased
Decreased
CONCEPTUAL SEARCH SPACE
CRUSADES COUNTING HOUSE
PEASANTS’ REVOLT UNDER SEIGE
Company Type /
Scenario
Under
Siege
Countin
g House
Crusade
s
Peasant
s’
Revolt
Oyu Tolgoi X ? ? X
Pampa Escondida X ? X X
Pebble X X ? ?
Resolution X X √ X
Udokan √ X ? ?
Reko Diq X X X X
Kamoa X X √ ?
Increased
DecreasedSource:Sykes & Trench (2016)
Slide 21 of 35

22. Struggling To Adapt Via Portfolio Selection
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
A few ‘big bets’ A ‘no worries’ strategy?
What would be an
original ‘no worries’
strategy?
A few ‘wait & see’ options
The application of ‘portfolio selection’ or diversification by the mining sector…
Sources:Markowitz(1952), Erdmannet al.,(2015), Sykes & Trench (2016)
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23. My PhD Story: Part 5
The Last Scenarios
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 23 of 35

24. Focusing On The Explorer, Not The Discovery
Discovered projects are a ‘known’ and thus well-analysed and optimised…
…if explorers are truly working in the unknown, then the explorers are the only
known entity upon which research can be conducted…
The final research question became:
“Can explorers find significant, better quality mineral deposits that are both
economically viable and more in line with contemporary and likely future
demands on the mining industry?”
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 24 of 35

25. First I Needed To ‘Upframe’ The Research
“If a problem cannot be
solved, enlarge it.”
- Dwight D. Eisenhower
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
Sources: Wack (1985), Ramirez & Wilkinson(2016)
Slide 25 of 35

26. Investigating The Transition Into The Future
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
Wonderland
1984
Left behind
High tech
Discworld
NOW
(An unknown
number of
economic
cycles to come)
Low tech
(Beyond which is
the unknown)
‘Economic paradigm’
‘Sustainability
paradigm’
‘Strategic paradigm’
‘Transition’
Sources:Sykes & Trench (2017); Images:Amazon
Slide 26 of 35

27. Transforming The Future Inspired by H&S
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
“Trapped in
a cycle”
“Breaking the
cycle”
19th Century 1970s
Compliance Culture Excellence
Late 20th century
HEALTH&SAFETY
Mid-20th Century 1970s
Compliance Culture Excellence
Late 20th century
SOCIALLICENCE
Sources:Sykes et al., (2016); Images:Amazon
Slide 27 of 35

28. Accepting The Future, Dickens and AA
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
Localisation
Globalisation
EconomicValue
SharedValue
God, give me grace to accept
with serenity
the things that cannot be
changed,
Courage to change the things
which should be changed,
and the Wisdom to distinguish
the one from the other.
Slide 28 of 35

29. My PhD Story: Part 6
The Undiscovered Country
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 29 of 35

30. Some New Search Spaces?
The final scenarios workshops identified three new ‘conceptual’ search spaces for mineral explorers:
1. Previously underexplored minor commodities associated major structural socio-economic change,
such as the ‘energy transition’ (one form of ‘sustainable resource’);
2. Regions with restricted socio-political access that may be overcome with a better ‘social licence to
operate’ (another form of ‘sustainable resource’);
3. Converting geopolitical concerns into exploration opportunities, i.e. ‘strategic resources’.
In addition to the already identified ‘under cover’ search space.
But this will require some changes in exploration industry capabilities!
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 30 of 35

31. Learning How To See What Is There
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)
The “Dee Why” (one of the
Sydney ferries) in the early
1930s, sailing past the Sydney
Harbour Bridge under
construction.
Source: Wikipedia
Slide 31 of 35

32. Returning To Go…
Explorers, exploration teams, and exploration companies will require a broader skill set in the future including:
• a better philosophical understanding of the nature of exploration and discovery
• better understanding of the cognitive processes involved in exploration and discovery;
• developing strategies and capabilities to effectively enter emerging commodity markets;
• building a diverse exploration culture to bring in ideas from other industries and disciplines;
• switching from a focus on economic value to shared value;
• developing a stronger innovation and technology culture;
• encouraging creativity and ideation;
• linking short and long-term thinking;
• improving the image of exploration;
• monitoring local and global socio-political, economic and technological trends and
• measuring and understanding the potential impact of these trends;
• encouraging a collective approach to ‘big exploration’.
Perhaps with these capabilities we can resolve the ‘discovery constraint’ on the minerals industry.
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 32 of 35

33. Acknowledgements
Firstly, I would like to acknowledge the Noongar people, who remain the spiritual and cultural custodians of the land, upon which The University of Western
Australia is situated, and pay my respect to Elders both past and present.
I would like to acknowledgethe support of my PhD supervision team: Allan Trench (CET, UWA), Mark Jessell (CET,UWA), Campbell McCuaig (BHP), and Nicolas Thebaud (CET,
UWA); as well as the financial support of a Centre for Exploration Targeting ‘Ad hoc’ scholarship and an Australian Government ResearchTraining ProgramScholarship.
I would also like to thank the participants in the three CET “Future of Minerals Exploration” Scenarios Workshops: Jonathan Bell (CET, Curtin), Leila Ben Mcharek (Muslim Studies, UWA), Rob
Bills (Emmerson Resources), Aida Carneiro (Mining Engineering, UWA), Ivy Chen (CSA Global), Aaron Colleran (Evolution Mining), Tim Craske (Geowisdom), Liz Dallimore (KPMG), Deon
deBruin (Diamond Indicator Minerals), Edoaldo Di Dio (Calibre Projects), Joe Dwyer (HiSeis), Mayara Fraeda (CET-UWA), Nick Franey (NFJ Consulting), Simon Gatehouse (BHP), Jeremie
Giraud (CET, UWA), Marcelo Godefroy Rodriguez (CET, UWA), Chris Gonzalez (CET, UWA), Isabel Granado (Information Systems, Curtin), Matt Greentree (Ausgold), David Groves (CET, UWA),
Mike Haederle (Rio Tinto), Mike Hannington (Metalicity), Nick Hayward (Teck), Amanda Hellberg (Law, UWA), Paul Hodkiewicz (Anglo American), Amy Imbergamo (Environmental Science,
UWA), Constanza Jara (CET, UWA), Caroline Johnson (CSIRO), Heta Lampinen (CET, UWA), Helen Langley (Law, UWA), John Libby (Digirock), Martin Lynch (Author of “Mining in World History”),
Stuart Masters (CS-2 Consulting), Michael Mead (Gold Fields), Adele Millard (Anthropology, UWA), Joanne Moo (Environmental Science, UWA), Suzanne Murray (Billabong Gold), Sandra
Occhipinti (CET, UWA), Ahmad Saleem (CET, UWA), Ian Satchwell (PerthUSAsia Centre), Robert Sills (Sills Strategic Materials), John Southalan (Law, UWA), David Stevenson (CET, UWA),
Narendran Subramaniam (Transmin), Siobhan Sullivan (Plant Biology, UWA), Daniel Sully (Teck), Janet Sutherland (Business, Curtin), Marcus Tomkinson (MMG), Marnie Tonkin
(Anthropology, UWA), Jan Tunjic (CET, UWA), Will Turner (Millenium Minerals), Stanislav Ulrich (AngloGold Ashanti), Jessica Volich (BHP), Wenchao Wan (Chemical Engineering, UWA), Peter
Williams (HiSeis), Marcus Willson (CSA Global) and Afira Zulkifli Tahmali (Environmental Science, UWA).
I wouldalso like to thank Steve Beresford (IndependenceGroup), Jon Hronsky (Western Mining Services), RobbieRowe (NextGen Geological),Richard Schodde(MinEx Consulting),John Vann (Anglo American) and
the members of #explorationtalk for the continuedsupport, guidance,and championingof this research.
This work has also benefittedfrom the contributionsof manyotherpeople who have co-authoredpapers, provided input,or contributedin some otherway, whetherthey knewit or not.These include David Abraham (TREM, IAGS), Saleem Ali
(Universityof Delaware),Tim Andrews(WesternPower),Lucy Ash (IndependentGeologist),MilesAshton (BaronPropertyGroup), Alex Atkins (Alex Atkins Associates),RogerBade (WhitmanHoward),Anthony Barich (Aspermont),Laurent
Barrere(Gryzlly Resources),GeoffBatt(MBA, UWA), Kristie Batten(MiningNews.net),Anselm Boehl (BHP),Carla Boehl(WASM, Curtin),Doug Brewster(IndependentExplorationGeologist), ZenoushkaBynevelt(BHP), Sarah Connolly(Gold
Fields),Jess Currell (EY), Sam Davies(CET, UWA), Aaron Dixon (EY),Nick Gardiner(CET, Curtin),Chris Gemell(Wood Mackenzie),Mike Gershon(GershonLearning),Pietro Guj (CET, Curtin),Nancy Hanna(CSIRO), Jess Harman(BHP), Matt
Horgan(Alcoa),Simon Jowitt(Universityof Nevada, Las Vegas),Matthew Kanakis(KPMG), PeterKettle (ITRI), Cho Khong (Shell),Cui Lin (ITRI), Paul Miller(Vedanta),Gavin Mudd (RMIT University),Tom Mulqueen(ITRI), Janusz Olbromski
(Brickworks),Ian Radisich (South32),Rafael Ramirez (Universityof Oxford), LaurenceRobb (Universityof Oxford),Paul Robinson (CRU), Cynthia Selin (ArizonaState University),Bindi Shah (MBA, UWA), NatalieStaffurth(Terravision
Exploration),Mark Tyrer (ImperialCollege),Kees van der Heijden(Universityof Oxford),Jess Volich(BHP), AngelaWilkinson(World EnergyCouncil),and Josh Wright(RowtonConsolidated).
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 33 of 35

34. Key References
• Sykes, J.P., 2014, Influencing exploration choices in copper at a strategic level (The Hollywood Edition), Centre for Exploration Targeting Members’ Day,
December, Perth (WA).
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2014, Chapter 14: Finding the copper mine of the 21st century: Conceptual exploration targeting for hypothetical copper
reserves, in Special Publication Number 18: Building exploration capability for the 21st century, (eds., K.D. Kelley & H.C. Golden), Society of Economic
Geologists: Littleton (CO), 273-300.
• Sykes, J.P., Wright, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Discovery, supply and demand: From Metals of Antiquity to critical metals, Applied Earth Science, 125, 1, 3-
20.
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2016, Using Scenarios to Investigate the Long-term Future of Copper Mining and Guide Exploration Targeting Strategies,
International Mine Management Conference, Brisbane (QLD), 22-24 August.
• Sykes, J.P., & Trench, A., 2017, The Impact of the Renewable Energy Transition on Battery and Strategic Metal Markets [presentation], AIG Battery &
Strategic Metals Seminar, Perth (WA), 10 November.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., Craske, T., Dwyer, J., Subramaniam, N., Sullivan, S.T.M., & Turner, W., 2016, Transforming the Future of Minerals
Exploration, AusIMM New Zealand Branch Conference, Wellington, 4-6 September, 407-418.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., McCuaig, T.C., & Jessell, M., 2017, Charles Dickens on the (potentially) changing role of globalisation and sustainability in the
long-term future of mining and exploration, Tenth International Mining Geology Conference, Hobart (TAS), 20-22 September, 239-256.
• Sykes, J.P., Trench, A., & McCuaig, T.C., 2017, The Future(s) of Minerals Exploration [poster], TARGET Conference, Perth (WA), 19-21 April.
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 34 of 35

35. Other References
• Erdmann, D., Sichel, B., & Yeung, L., 2015, Overcoming Obstacles to Effective Scenario Planning, McKinsey Quarterly, June, 1-6.
• Franks, D.M., Davis, R., Bebbington, A.J., Ali, S.H., Kemp, D., & Scurrah, M., 2014, Conflict Translates Environmental and Social
Risk into Business Costs, PNAS, 111, 21, 7576-7581.
• Fukuyama, F., 1992, The End of History and the Last Man, Penguin Books: London.
• Humphreys, D., 2010, The Great Metals Boom: A Retrospective, Resources Policy, 35, 1-13.
• Markowitz, H., 1952, Portfolio Selection, The Journal of Finance, 7, 1, 77-91.
• Ramirez, R., & Wilkinson, A., 2016, Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach, Oxford University Press: Oxford.
• Rigby, D., & Bilodeau, B., 2007, A Growing Focus on Preparedness, Harvard Business Review, 85, 7/8, 21-22.
• Silver, N., 2012, The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, Penguin Books: London.
• Taleb, N.N., 2007, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Allen Lane: London.
• Tetlock, P.E., 2005, Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Princeton University Press: Princeton (NJ).
• Tetlock, P.E., & Gardner, D., 2015, Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction, Random House Books: London.
• Tilton, J.E., & Guzman, J.I., 2016, Mineral Economics and Policy, Routledge: Abingdon (UK).
• Wack, P., 1985, Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids, Harvard Business Review, 63, 6, 139-150.
17 Nov 2017My PhD: Or How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love Mining (UWA SES Postgraduate Symposium)Slide 35 of 35