A short summary about how much augmenting does wind energy need. PL

1. How Much Augmenting
Does Wind Energy Require?
© john droz, jr.

2. MW
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
This is a Simplified Electricity Demand graph
(which must be exactly matched by the Supply graph).© john droz, jr.

3. MW
Wind
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
This shows each source supplying us
with 20% of our total electricity needed. © john droz, jr.

4. MW
Wind
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Wind, though, is unlike any of the others,
and in reality is like this. © john droz, jr.

5. MW
Wind
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
So something has to augment those variations,
and typically it’s additional gas. © john droz, jr.

6. MW
Wind
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
To properly balance wind, the extra gas supply
must approximately equal the wind supply. © john droz, jr.

7. This is a Simplified Electrical Supply graph
(which must exactly match the Demand graph).
3000
MW of Electricity
2000
1000
0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
© john droz, jr.

8. The Supply graph actually has four elements.
Let’s briefly look at each one.
3000
Demand Safety Margin
Peak Load
Load Following
MW of Electricity
2000
Base Load
1000
0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
© john droz, jr.

9. This is the “Base Load” Supply part.
3000
MW of Electricity
2000
Base Load
1000
Can Wind Energy Supply
“Base Load” Power?
NO.
0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Base Load: what is needed 24/7 (about 50% of the total)
[This is a predictable underlying demand that is quite consistent throughout the year.]
— Base Load Supply is typically Nuclear or Coal facilities. —
© john droz, jr.

10. This is Base Load,
with “Load Following” Supply added.
3000
Load Following
MW of Electricity
2000
Base Load
1000
Can Wind Energy Supply
“Load Following” Power?
NO.
0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Load Following: normal usage daily changes
[These are fairly predictable 24 hour cyclic changes, with higher demand before & after work.]
— Load Following Supply is typically Gas or Hydro facilities. —
© john droz, jr.

11. This is Base Load + Load Following,
with “Peak Load” Supply added.
3000
Peak Load
Load Following
MW of Electricity
2000
Base Load
1000
Can Wind Energy Supply
“Peak Load” Power?
NO.
0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
Peak Load: unusual surges
[These may be due to a heat wave where a lot of air conditioners are used at 5 PM.]
— Peak Load Supply is typically Gas facilities. —
© john droz, jr.

12. This is Base Load + Load Following + Peak Load,
with 15% Demand Safety Margin added.
3000
Demand Safety Margin
Peak Load
Load Following
MW of Electricity
2000
Base Load
1000
0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
The supply sources that are providing the Demand Safety Margin
(which can also be called backup supply). Their primary reason for existence
is to be able to instantaneously provide for any additional demand.
© john droz, jr.

13. This is Base Load + Load Following + Peak Load
+ Backup, with Wind Energy added.
3000
Wind Energy
Demand Safety Margin
Peak Load
Load Following
MW of Electricity
2000
Base Load
1000
0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday
For lower amounts of wind penetration (<5%)
it may appear like no additional wind backup is needed.
However, wind is actually stealing from the Demand Safety Margin.
This puts sections of the Grid at greater risk for brownouts and blackouts.
The only proper solution is to match wind supply with an additional augmenting source.droz, jr.
© john

14. Conclusions:
1 - For any amount of wind penetration, there needs to be a quick responding source
(usually gas) assigned to augment its variability.
2 - The amount of this augmenting source is typically 90+% of the wind’s faceplate value.
The actual percentage can be calculated by subtracting the true wind facility capacity value
from 100%.
3 - For low penetrations (<5%), in some cases a new augmenting source is not built, and
wind variations are absorbed by the Demand Safety Margin. This is poor grid policy as it
increases safety risks for all users. It may be done for economical reasons (not having the
money to build the augmenting source), or for political reasons (so as not to show some of
the extra grid costs necessitated by wind energy).
4 - In ALL cases the levelized cost of wind should be calculated with it being paired with a
full time augmenting supply. This also applies to other comparisons with conventional
sources, like calculating the amount of CO2 saved.

15. For more information on wind energy, see
EnergyPresentation.Info

16. On Jobs
The US has lost most of its jobs to other countries primarily due to economics:
low cost labor.
Our businesses have one major economic benefit left to counter more job loss:
low cost electricity.
Why would we agree to an RPS and voluntarily give this up???

17. More On Jobs
There is nothing — no program, no hobby, no vice, no crime — that does not
“create jobs.” For example, tsunamis, computer viruses and shooting
convenience store clerks all “create jobs.”
So since that claim applies to all it is an argument in favor of none.
Instead of providing evidence of the merits of an enterprise, a jobs claim is
a de facto admission that one has a specious case.

18. Even More On Jobs
We could eliminate all forms of welfare and food stamps, and offer the
unemployed full-time minimum wage jobs pedaling stationary bicycles
hooked up to electric generators.
This would solve our: 1) energy independence, 2) energy diversity, 3) fossil
fuel reduction, 4) poverty, 5) obesity, and 6) budget problems all at once!

19. Peer Review
1 - "Peer Review" is applicable in one primary situation:
when a scientist is proposing a new hypothesis.
2 - "Peer Review" is simply the opinions of selected other qualified scientists
about a proposed hypothesis.
3 - Even if all these selected other scientists agree with the hypothesis,
that does not constitute scientific proof that the hypothesis is accurate.

20. Peer Review
"The mistake, of course, is to think that peer review is any more than a
crude means of discovering the acceptability — not the validity — of a new
finding. Editors and scientists alike insist on the pivotal importance of peer
review. We portray peer review to the public as a quasi-sacred process that
helps to make science our most objective truth teller.
But we know that the system of peer review is biased, unjust, incomplete,
unaccountable, easily fixed, often insulting, usually ignorant, occasionally
foolish, and frequently wrong."
— Richard Horton, editor of the British medical journal The Lancet

21. Scientific Process
is an assessment that is:
1) Comprehensive, 2) Independent, 3) Transparent, 4) Empirical
Technical, Objective Real World
Economic & All Data Available
Environmental

22. Sound Scientific Solutions
is the Umbrella position that covers
ALL important concerns:
TECHNICAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL
(e.g. reliability, (e.g. taxpayer cost, (e.g. CO2 savings,
dispatchability, ratepayer costs, noise, flicker,
transmission, agricultural impact, birds & bats,
other Grid property values, other health effects,
limitations) net jobs, etc.) raw material extraction
and processing, etc.)