1. S
Slowing Arctic Melting:
Beginnings of a Regional Strategy
to Mitigate Climate Change
John Topping, Founder and President, Climate Institute.
A lecture to the Hertog Global Strategy Initiative At Columbia
University
June 13, 2013

2. Record 400ppm CO2milestone
– 14th May 2013

3. Forces Occurring
Together to
Accelerate Stress
S Climate change not the only
adverse human or natural
stress affecting
ecosystems or areas in
which we live.
S Growing ocean acidification.
S Depletion of fossil aquifers.
S Land degradation.
S Destruction of
forests, especially in the
tropical regions.
Source: Upwell conservation

4. Attribution: Jeff Masters, Ph.D, Weather Underground (2013)
Arctic Sea Ice Volume Reductions

5. Momentum Gaining on the
Climate Front
S China (the leading greenhouse emitter)
— spurred by air quality, climate and
trade competiveness concerns — is
moving to institute a greenhouse cap
and trade system and national carbon
tax, and is now largest investor in
renewable energy.
S U.S., historically source of about a third
of industrial era anthropogenic
greenhouse emissions, seems on a
downward trajectory despite impasse in
Washington.
S Increased efficiency (in energy use and
vehicles), state and city renewable
energy incentives, and natural gas for
S A draft ANSI voluntary Life Cycle
Assessment standard providing
the most ambitious standards on
the planet may become final in
2014; the standard would value
reductions of black carbon and
establish an Arctic Regional
Warming Indicator.

6. Global Motivation:
Benefits from Action
S There is growing interest in rich and
poor nations alike in acting to slash
emissions of black carbon and other
substances whose reduction will
yield health and climate benefits.
S Mexico, driven by a public clamor
for climate protection, in June 2012
adopted the most ambitious climate
protection law of any OECD nation.
S Pictured: Tickell Network Climate
Theatre. Flor del Bosque
Educational Park, Mexico.

7. Lecture Focus
TARGET: Short-Lived
Climate Forcers & Regions
S Double down on growing interest by
focusing efforts on black carbon and
the Arctic.
S Other SLCFs: tropospheric ozone
forming compounds and methane
S Other regions near tipping point: the
Himalayas- Tibetan Plateau, the
Andes and Amazonian Basin, and
Antarctica.
Arctic Climate Action
Registry (ACAR)
S Effort of the Climate Institute, other US
and international NGOs and climate
and forestry scientists to increase
incentives for reduction of SLCFs.
S Seeks to slow the precipitous loss of
Arctic sea ice that could rescramble
weather and ocean circulation
patterns.
S Establish a precedent for regionally
focused strategies to minimize climate
disruption in other vulnerable regions.

8. Short-Lived Climate Forcers
S Amazon
S Amazon land and
conversion forest loss
may push to point of dieback.
Andes may be affected both by
warming and SLCF deposition.
Could mean loss of water
resources for tens of millions.
S Himalayas/Tibetan Plateau
S Water resources for at least a
sixth of humanity could be
imperiled.
S Decisive global action targeting
SLCFs the next best step to bide
time for the regions in danger of
irreversible damage.
S Increased efficiency, non or
low-carbon fuel sources.
S Antarctic
S Parts warming rapidly with
potential for adding to sea level
rise from melting of
glaciers in Greenland and
other regions and warming of
upper layers of ocean.

9. Global Action on Short-Lived
Climate Forcers
Climate and Clean Air
Coalition
S Rapid growth of CCAC action on black
carbon,
methane, hydrofluorocarbons and tro
pospheric ozone that together produce
as much an effect on climate change as
CO2.
S Reductions will often yield not only
climate benefits but enhanced human
health (BC), and sometimes economic
(recovery for energy of leaking
methane) or safety (harvesting of
methane from coal mines).
Challenges
S Barrier to be overcome: failure
of Kyoto Protocol-based trading
systems to incentivize
these reductions.

10. Tropospheric Ozone
S Formed as a secondary product of other emissions
S By oxidation of methane, CO, and VOCs in the presence of NOx
S Once formed, lasts 20 – 24 days
S Warming Effect is ~ 0.3 W/m2
S 18% of CO2 effect

11. Methane
S Atmospheric concentrations rising after several years of
stability
S Lasts 12 years in atmosphere
S Warming Effect is ~ 0.86 W/m2
S Just over 50% of CO2 effect
S Win-Win opportunities to reduce methane

12. Black Carbon (Soot)
S Dark-colored type of aerosol / particulate matter (PM)
S Absorbs sunlight and heat
S Stays in atmosphere for only 1 – 2 weeks
S Atmospheric Warming Effect is 0.44 – 0.9 W/m2
S 28 – 55% of CO2 effect
S Decreased snow albedo in Arctic and Himalayas
S Enormous regional increase in warming effect
S Globally averaged, is an additional 0.1 – 0.2 W/m2
S Harmful to human respiratory health

13. Regional Effects
• ―Tropospheric ozone and BC snow albedo effect
contribute substantially to rapid warming and sea ice loss
in the Arctic‖ - James Hansen et al. 2005
• Arctic Warming Since 1890 (Shindell et al. 2009)
• Black carbon: 0.5 – 1.4˚C
• Trop. Ozone: 0.2 – 0.4˚C
Shindell estimates that combined
sulfate decrease and BC increase
caused 75% of direct Arctic
warming over past 30 years

14. Benefits from Black Carbon
Reduction
S Atmospheric loading and warming influence will drop as
emissions drop
S Acute decrease in Arctic warming
S Reducing certain BC emissions will result in:
S Reduced indoor air pollution, which kills 1.9M annually
S Reduced outdoor air pollution, which kills 0.8M annually

15. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
RadiativeForcing(wattspersqmeter)
YEAR
20th Century GHG Emissions
21st Century CO2 only
Warming Effect During 21st Century
Aggressive Reductions in both GHGs and Black Carbon
Credit: MacCracken 2009

16. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
RadiativeForcing(wattspersqmeter)
YEAR
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
YEAR
Near-Term Changes in Warming Effect
Black Carbon is Critical to Reducing Near-Term Warming
Business as Usual Aggressive Reductions
in BC and GHGs
Credit: MacCracken 2009

17. Biomass Burning - Largest
Current Arctic Climate Forcer
S Recent studies indicate that about
75% of light absorbing aerosols
(black and brown carbon)
deposited on Arctic snow
and ice are attributable to crop
and grass burning (Hegg et
al, 2010).
S ARCTAS mission found it
contributed 39 %of Arctic black
carbon, 69 %of Arctic methane and
38 % of Arctic carbon monoxide, a
precursor of tropospheric
ozone.(Wedderburn-
Bisshop, 2012).
S Agricultural and grassland fires are
responsible for 69 % of Arctic fire
activity with forest and shrubland fires
responsible for 24% (Wedderburn-
Bisshop, 2012).

18. Biomass Burning - Largest
Current Arctic Climate Forcer
S The leadsourcesof these emissions in descending order are
Russia, Kazakhstan, China, United States, Canada and Ukraine (Pettus, Clean Air
Task Force, 2009).
S Most of these nations have some form of
restrictions on agricultural burning but
enforcement is generally lax, especially in
places such as northeast China where
emissions are most likely to affect the Arctic
(Pettus, 2009).
S Potential mitigation strategies might
include increased enforcement of existing
rules and changed seasonality of burning.

19. Arctic Air Overflights - A Source of
Black Carbon and Other Climate
Warming Emissions
S Beginning in 1998 when Russia
agreed to permit foreign carrier
commercial aviation overflights
this has grown to over 40,000
flights a year with significant
climate forcing effect.
Especially significant is the
residence time of black carbon
emitted in the stratosphere, as
much as an order of magnitude
greater than at ground level
(Jacobson et al. 2012)
S Mark Jacobson at Stanford and
colleagues, after an extensive analysis
of trans- Arctic flights, concluded it
would be possible to reduce emissions
by as much as 83 % by rerouting. They
project this could significantly delay
loss of Arctic sea ice with annual costs
globally of about $ 99 million.
(Jacobson et al. 2012).

20. Arctic Air Overflights - A Source of
Black Carbon and Other Climate
Warming Emissions
S Breakthroughs in early June by members of International Air
Transport Association (IATA) in urging governments to adopt a
single market based system to offset post -2020 growth in
aircraft emissions may be a heartening sign of growing airline
receptivity to climate friendly activity.

21. Development Related to Arctic
Warming Produces Sizable
Emissions Growth
S Shipping - Volume likely to increase as sea ice melts
S Potential response -Requiring electrostatic precipitators or
changed fuel mix to minimize black carbon emissions on both
commercial vessels and icebreakers.
S Oil and gas development -Likely to increase, especially in Russia
and some other offshore parts of Arctic and near Arctic.
S Potential response - Besides seeking universal provisions to
minimize oil spills, encouraging near zero black carbon emissions
and zero methane releases.
S Mining- Although a modest source of emissions, mostly in Russia
and Canada, there is large potential for growth of mining industry
in Greenland with international investors looking to extract iron
and rare earths.

22. Possible Regional
Geoengineering Strategies
S Changing seasonality of
icebreaking- doing less ice
breaking in the spring when it
reinforces sea ice loss and more in
the fall.
S Catalyzing natural processes to
absorb Arctic methane-researchers
are looking at use of supplements
such as nitrate or sulfate to boost
productivity of methanotrophs.
S Bacteria are responsible for aerobic
methane oxidation; archea are
responsible for anaerobic oxidation.
This might reduce methane release in
Arctic oceans, as well as promote a
more suitable climate for fish
habitation, and thereforefor fish
farms.
S Sending small ships to disperse
sea salt, forming clouds to hold in
Arctic heat- Salter and Latham and
a UK based Arctic Methane
Emergency Group have been the
leading advocates for this strategy.

23. The Four Crucial Regions
Himalayas
Amazonian Rainforest &
Andean Mountains

24. The Four Crucial Regions
Antarctica The Arctic

25. South America: Closely
Interconnected Ecosystems
Amazon Rainforest
S The Amazonian Rainforest is the
greatest treasure trove of biodiversity
on the planet.
S It is disappearing rapidly due to land
conversion for cattle farms, mining and
small farmers.
S Brazilian Scientists (Simoes&
Evangelista) report that emissions from
burning for land clearing in the
Amazon, especially for cattle
farms, may be producing as much as
half of black carbon deposition in the
Antarctic.
Andes Mountains
S Glaciers in the mountains provide
water supplies for tens of millions
in South America and hydropower
for millions.
S Rapid glacial melt imperils this
water supply.
S Efforts are underway to install
cleaner cook stoves in many
Andean communities and reduce
black carbon emissions.

26. Antarctica
S Glacial thinning:
Glaciers in Antarctica contain
about 70% of all the fresh
water on Earth; if all were to
melt, global sea levels would
rise well over 60 meters-
more than 200 feet.

27. Antarctica
S There is a modest net loss now
from Antarctica, about 150
cubic kilometers each year
(Hansen, 2007) but if this
accelerates it could add significantly
to global sea level rise.
S Deposition of significant quantities of
black carbon from fires in
South America and Africa has
been detected in Antarctica and
linked to agricultural burning. No
linkage has yet been done on
their role in ice loss.
S Although Antarctica is the coldest
region on Earth, some portions in the
Antarctic Peninsula and West
Antarctic are among the most
rapidly warming parts of the planet.
S Most Antarctic ice loss seems
attributable to interaction with
warming waters of the Southern
Ocean more than to warming on the
land.

28. The Himalayas

29. Himalayas – Tibetan Plateau
S Emissions of black
carbon, especially from diesel
transport and cook
stoves, appear as great a factor
as overall global warming in
spurring glacial melting.
S Indian Supreme Court has
mandated that in public transport
compressed natural gas vehicles
replace current diesel and other
vehicles.
S Provides water supplies for about
one of every six humans on
earth. Rapid glacial melt underway
that may reduce water availability.
S Project Surya seeks to reduce
black carbon emissions, save lives
and reduce climate forcing through
replacement of cook stoves and
kerosene lanterns with cleaner
alternatives http://www.projectsur
ya.org/

30. S
The Arctic’s Role
And Functions of the Arctic Climate Action Registry

31. Climate Change in the Arctic
In September 2012, a new record level of Ice
melt was recorded. At this rate the Arctic
could be ice-free in summer by the end of this
decade.
Economist, August 28 2012

32. Climate Change in the Arctic
S Melting of the Greenland
ice sheet, contributing to
global sea level rise
Scientists at NASA first thought satellite
readings were a mistake after images
showed 97% surface melt over four days
 Significant erosion,
threatening villages
 Collapse of whole
ecosystems
 Melting of permafrost
and release of trapped
methane hydrates

33. Chief Causes
S Global Warming
 CO2 and other Kyoto GHGs
S Arctic Regional Contribution (50-70%)
 Methane
 Black Carbon
 Tropospheric Ozone
 Methane Hydrate Pulse
5,000 billion tons trapped ~
all CO2 and CH4 combined

34. Climate Change Impacts
S Displacement of villages due to sea level rise and melting
permafrost
S Public infrastructure damage
S Ecosystem impacts (e.g., new pests, migratory species)
S Food security (e.g., fisheries, subsistence hunting, melting ice
cellars)
S Human health issues (e.g., disease, asthma)

35. ALASKA
The Government Accountability
Office (GAO) has reported:
S Almost all of Alaska’s 200+
villages have been affected by
flooding and erosion, with 4
requiring relocation
S 31 villages face imminent
threats
S 12 of the 31 villages are
exploring relocation options
Climate Change Impacts

36. Locations of Arctic
Indigenous Peoples

37. Significance for
International Security
S Accelerated glacial melting in
Greenland and Antarctica could
enhance projected sea level
rise, threatening the US, other coastal
nations and island states.
S Potential unpredictable effects on
weather patterns and world
agriculture at loss of year round
Arctic Sea Ice.

38. Arctic Climate Action
Registry (ACAR)
S An effort to incentivize reductions of emissions of soot, methane and
tropospheric ozone forming compounds.
S No other organization in the world is taking action fast enough to save
the Arctic. The Arctic Climate Action Registry will certify projects that
immediately slow the meltdown in the Arctic using metrics defined in the
new Draft American (ANSI) Greenhouse Gas Accounting Standard.
S The Arctic Climate Action Registry Network is a social network
consisting of scientists, business leaders, government
officials, educators, and consumers. Its goal is to help members
communicate about taking action to save the Arctic.
S If successful, could be adapted and extended to the Antarctic, Amazon-
Andes and Himalayas.

39. ACAR Vision, Mission
and Strategy
S VISION: Slow down and ultimately
end climate change in the Arctic
region and, in so doing, slow down
climate change around the globe.
S MISSION: Mitigate greenhouse
gases and other climate forcers
affecting the Arctic region.
S STRATEGY: Stimulate projects and
activities in support of our
mission, based on incentives and
market mechanisms, with
measurable progress within the
decade.

40. ACAR Participants
TRANSACTIONAL REGISTRY
Managed by the
American Carbon Registry
Based on Arctic Climate
Metrics
from LEO-SCS-002
ARCTIC CLIMATE
PROTECTION NETWORK
Companies
Government agencies
Institutions
Individuals
ARCTIC CLIMATE FOOTPRINT
&
3rd PARTY OFFSET
VERIFICATION
SCS Global Services
ACAR HOME
The Climate Institute
Steering Committee

41. Current Steering
Committee Members
Charles Bayless, Chair, Chairmen of the Board Essential Power
Luis Roberto Acosta, President, Instituto del Clima
Senator Heherson Alvarez, Commissioner for Climate Change, Philippines; Former Philippine
Secretary of the Department of Agrarian Reform and the Department of Environment and Natural
Resources
Steve Apfelbaum, President, Applied Ecological Services
Paul Bartlett, Environmental Scientist
Robert W. Corell, Principal, Global Environmental Technology Foundation; Chair, Arctic Climate Impact
Assessment
Gary Dodge, Director of Science and Certification, Forest Stewardship Council U.S.
Robert Engelman, President, Worldwatch Institute
Peter A. Globensky, Principal Consultant, BASA; Former CEO, Canadian Council of Ministers of the
Environment

42. Current Steering
Committee Members
John Kadyszewski, Director, American Carbon Registry
Stephen Leatherman, Professor and Director of the Laboratory for Coastal Research at Florida International
University
Michael MacCracken, Chief Scientist, The Climate Institute
John Noel, President, Southern Alliance for Clean Energy
Conn Nugent, President, Heinz Center
Ata Qureshi, Team Leader, Asia Climate Study.
Stanley Rhodes, President, Scientific Certification Systems
Terry Root, Senior Fellow, Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment
Linda Schade, Executive Director, The Black Carbon Reduction Council
Tim Warman, Former Vice President, Climate and Energy, National Wildlife Federation
Carol Werner, Executive Director, Environmental and Energy Study Institute
Daniel Wildcat, Professor, Haskell Indian Nations University; Founder, Indigenous Peoples Climate Change
Working Group

43. ACAR Registry Project
Opportunities
Examples
Shipping – Equipping ships with technology to capture black
carbon, and using or purchasing turbine-powered ships.
Agricultural Burning - Reduce and change seasonality
Airlines– Reduced emissions from airline fleets, e.g., some rerouting
of flights, increased fuel efficiency.
Pollution Prevention –Stack emissions captured at electricity
production and other industrial facilities.
Methane Capture – Methane capture for energy generation.
Natural Cycle Enhancement – Micronization of sea water to help
cool the region, i.e., ships generating spray to promote cooling.

44. Some Encouraging Trends
U.S. Greenhouse Gases
S Total emissions levels have
dropped almost to 1994 levels
due largely to increased
efficiency and greater use of
renewables.
S Should continue by a substitution
in U.S. of natural gas for coal in
the utility sector.
S To maximize climate benefits of
coal to gas switch, it is crucial to
minimize methane leaks
from natural gas system.
Energy Use &
Emissions

45. U.S. Position: Opportunity
S Leverage our good fortune as
soon-to-be world’s leading
energy producer; ensure
continued prosperity and
catalyze effective national and
international response to
climate change.
S In natural gas sector: hold
overall methane leakage
from natural gas
extraction, transmission
and distribution to below
1%.
S How can our energy planning
and foreign policy promote
results that will sustain our
national economy, reduce risk
of climate disruption, and meld
into climate protection
responses, benefits to human
health and food production?

46. U.S. Opportunities
S Wide political support here. April
22, 2009, joint sponsorship of
successful legislation by Senators
Inhofe, Carper, Boxer and Kerry to
mandate U.S. EPA to develop
options for black carbon
reductions here and abroad.
S Encourage special focus on
emission reductions in regions
such as Arctic, where we may be
at near irreversible climate
tipping points.
S Reduce federal and state
regulatory barriers to energy recycling
(cogeneration).
S Promote aggressive international
attack on Short- Lived Climate
Forcers that affect climate and
human health and where benefits
can be realized soon.

47. China Moving Forward in
Climate Protection
S As RamezNaam noted in Slate May 8, 2013 China now seems determined to
be a world leader in climate protection:
1. Moving forward with a cap and
trade plan in seven regions Including
provinces of Guangdong and Hubei
and cities of
Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing
and Shenzhen, with a goal of linking
by 2020 to a national carbon market.
2. Planning to institute a tax on CO2
emissions, as early as 2015 or 2016.

48. China Moving Forward in
Climate Protection
3. Investing $65 billion on renewable energy in 2012,
compared with $35 billion in the US the same year.
4. China now produces over half of the global
production of solar panels with the US now
producing less than 10 percent.
Significantly, driven by both climate and air quality
concerns, China appears to be considering the
integration of valuation for reduction of emissions
of black carbon and other short- lived climate
forcers into their cap and trade plans. A chef in China's Shandong
province removes chicken
from a solar cooker

49. A Region Specific
Mitigation Strategy
S Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau: rapid glacial melt imperils the water
supplies of much of humanity; mitigation action (cleaner cook stoves and
transport systems) can avert hundreds of thousands of air pollution
deaths annually.
S Latin America: glacial melt in the Andean region and drying out of key
agricultural lands in South America is spurred by burning and land
conversion.
S ACAR to leverage growing public interest in slowing climatic disruption in
the regions closest to a tipping point, corporate interest in averting
climatic chaos and voluntary emission reduction incentive systems to
slow loss of sea ice and glacial melting.
ACAR TARGET: Black carbon, ozone forming compounds and
methane

50. Climate Change
and the
International Stage
Thank you!
Questions/Comments?
Acknowledgments:
Principally HumiunMiah and Jillian
Jordan, thanks also to
Michael MacCracken, John - Michael
Cross, Matt Vetter, Christopher Philipp, and
Linda Brown.
www.climate.org & Arctic Climate Action Registry
(ACAR) at
http://www.climate.org/programs/acar/index.html