7. Source: NAR Analysis of BLS, MBA, NAR data
Home Price Crashing Coming?
Key Variables Last Housing Cycle Current Housing Cycle
Job Cuts (net of gains and losses) 8 million none
Total Payroll Jobs
(W-2 salary jobs)
130 million 153 million
Total Jobs
(Household survey)
138 million 158 million
Subprime Loans Prevalent Virtually none
5-year cumulative to new home
construction before crash
7.65 million 4.6 million
Inventory on Market 3.8 to 4 million 1 to 1.2 million
Mortgage Delinquency 10.1% 3.6%
Homes in Foreclosure 4.6% 0.6%
11. Source: NAR Analysis of MLS data
1st Week of January Market
Condition
Market Summary % vs 2022
Median Sale Price 2.2%
Home Sold -34.0%
New Contracts -31.7%
Sale to List Price% 94.9% (97.5%)
Median DOM 28 days (21 days)
Active Listings 43.3%
New Fresh Listings -17.5%
12. Long-term Single Family
Housing Starts
Historical average of 1.02 million per year
Source: Census/HUD
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
2017
2020
13. Source: Freddie Mac
Hopeful Signs on Mortgage Rates
... Several weeks of decline
5.00
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
Sep 1
2022
Sep 15
2022
Sep 29
2022
Oct 13
2022
Oct 27
2022
Nov 10
2022
Nov 24
2022
Dec 8
2022
Dec 22
2022
Jan 5
2023
20-year high rates
14. Source: Freddie Mac and U.S. Treasury
Further Decline in Mortgage
Rates Possible ... As the spread with 10-year
Treasury narrows
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00 1990
-
Jan
1992
-
Jan
1994
-
Jan
1996
-
Jan
1998
-
Jan
2000
-
Jan
2002
-
Jan
2004
-
Jan
2006
-
Jan
2008
-
Jan
2010
-
Jan
2012
-
Jan
2014
-
Jan
2016
-
Jan
2018
-
Jan
2020
-
Jan
2022
-
Jan
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
1990
-
Jan
1992
-
Jan
1994
-
Jan
1996
-
Jan
1998
-
Jan
2000
-
Jan
2002
-
Jan
2004
-
Jan
2006
-
Jan
2008
-
Jan
2010
-
Jan
2012
-
Jan
2014
-
Jan
2016
-
Jan
2018
-
Jan
2020
-
Jan
2022
-
Jan
30-year Mortgage and 10-year Treasury Spread
15. Unemployment Rate … back to
normal
Source: BLS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000
-
Jan
2001
-
Jan
2002
-
Jan
2003
-
Jan
2004
-
Jan
2005
-
Jan
2006
-
Jan
2007
-
Jan
2008
-
Jan
2009
-
Jan
2010
-
Jan
2011
-
Jan
2012
-
Jan
2013
-
Jan
2014
-
Jan
2015
-
Jan
2016
-
Jan
2017
-
Jan
2018
-
Jan
2019
-
Jan
2020
-
Jan
2021
-
Jan
2022
-
Jan
16. Payroll Jobs … record high
Source: BLS
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
150000
160000
2020
-
Jan
2020
-
Feb
2020
-
Mar
2020
-
Apr
2020
-
May
2020
-
Jun
2020
-
Jul
2020
-
Aug
2020
-
Sep
2020
-
Oct
2020
-
Nov
2020
-
Dec
2021
-
Jan
2021
-
Feb
2021
-
Mar
2021
-
Apr
2021
-
May
2021
-
Jun
2021
-
Jul
2021
-
Aug
2021
-
Sep
2021
-
Oct
2021
-
Nov
2021
-
Dec
2022
-
Jan
2022
-
Feb
2022
-
Mar
2022
-
Apr
2022
-
May
2022
-
Jun
2022
-
Jul
2022
-
Aug
2022
-
Sep
2022
-
Oct
2022
-
Nov
2022
-
Dec
In thousands
17. Source: NAR Analysis of BLS data
Some States Doing Better than
Other
Payroll Job Additions from pre-Covid days
(November 2022 vs. March 2020)
18. Source: NAR Analysis of BLS data
Chicago-Naperville-Arlington
Heights
Metro Payroll Jobs
Long-Term Job Performance
3000
3100
3200
3300
3400
3500
3600
3700
3800
3900
In thousands
